Germany 2021: Fighting COVID
and replacing Angela Merkel
What will define Germany in 2021? The
fight against the coronavirus pandemic? Or rather the political battles as the
country faces several elections — and the task to replace Chancellor Angela
Merkel.
The Brandenburg Gate in Berlin will be
the backdrop to political squabbles in 2021
At the moment, nothing in Germany is
more important than the coronavirus pandemic, and that's likely to remain so in
the new year.
Resistance is growing to the curbs on individual freedoms brought
about by rules made to combat COVID-19. "A social movement is brewing, in
which right-wing and left-wing extremists, but also esotericists and science
deniers, are gathering," political scientist Florian Hartleb told DW.
Watch video01:51
Germany to put coronavirus protesters
under observation
Seven
elections
The balancing act between protecting
public health and people's rights to freedom will also influence elections, and
there are plenty of those in Germany in 2021.
Citizens will head to the polls in six
of Germany's 16 states. In Baden-Württemberg, popular Premier Winfried
Kretschmann — the first and only state premier from the environmentalist Green
party — is standing for reelection in March. April will be interesting in
Thuringia, where Bodo Ramelow is currently the sole state premier from the Left
party.
In Saxony-Anhalt, it will be decided, at
the latest, by the election in June whether the troubled coalition of the
conservative Christian Democrats, center-left Social Democrats, and Greens will
endure.
December opinion polls see the
conservative CDU/CSU as front runners
But the most important election of the
year won't be until September — the federal election, when the era of
Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to come to an end. After 16 years and four
terms in government, the Christian Democrat wants to step down. Merkel would
then have been in office almost as long as the current record holder, Helmut
Kohl.
Adieu,
Angie!
What will the Germans miss with her
departure? "Her will to persevere, the irrepressible, almost inhuman work
ethic, the inner discipline and the scientific element in politics,"
believes Florian Hartleb. He sees as negative points of her time in office "her
nebulous, cliché-ridden language" and "her stubbornly pursued refugee
policy, accompanied by a naïve welcoming culture," which allowed the
far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to grow.
·
ANGELA MERKEL: 15 YEARS AS GERMAN CHANCELLOR
'Kohl's
girl' no longer
Former Chancellor Helmut Kohl and other
political insiders once called her his "girl." She stepped out of his
shadow in 2001, when she led the Christian Democrats (CDU) in the opposition.
But it was 2005 when her real moment came.
Merkel was also viewed abroad as a
crisis chancellor, valued as a figure of stability in turbulent times, including
the European sovereign debt crisis, Brexit and the US presidency of Donald
Trump, and now with the coronavirus pandemic.
Chancellor
Söder?
That's why one of the most important
questions in the new year will be who will take her place. With her Christian
Democratic Union (CDU) polling consistently at around 35%, far ahead of any
other party, the next CDU head has a good chance of also becoming the next
chancellor.
There are three candidates who want to
face the CDU delegates at a digital party conference to be held in mid-January:
former party whip Friedrich Merz, North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Armin Laschet
and Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee head Norbert Röttgen. But whether one
of them will become a candidate for the chancellorship in addition to party
head remains to be seen.
According to opinion polls, a relative
majority of Germans would rather have Bavarian Premier Markus Söder from the
CDU's smaller "sister party" as chancellor. It has happened before
that the CSU fielded the conservative candidate for the chancellorship, but if
Söder were to prevail, it would be the first time that a German chancellor
would come from the regional Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU.)
·
GERMANY'S CDU: HERE'S WHO COULD REPLACE ANGELA MERKEL
Friedrich
Merz: Longstanding Merkel critic
The ex-leader of the CDU/CSU
parliamentary group in the Bundestag withdrew from frontline politics in 2009.
He made a comeback in 2018 when he joined the CDU leadership race, losing
narrowly to AKK. Merz recently quit his post as chairman at BlackRock, the
world's largest investment management firm, to "help the conservative
party renew itself." He appeals to the CDU's conservative members.
Building
blocks in Berlin
No matter who is chancellor, the union
of CDU and CSU will most likely need at least one coalition partner to form a
government after the election. The current partner, the Social Democrat (SPD),
is not only struggling in the polls but seems tired of being in government
after two terms in a grand coalition under Merkel.
The up-and-coming Greens are putting
themselves forward. Under popular co-leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert
Habeck, they have set aside some of their more fundamentalist positions and
want to join in the government. Habeck told a party conference in late
November: "We're working optimistically on solutions. And for these
solutions, we are fighting for power."
Söder, however, warns CDU/CSU supporters
that they shouldn't take for granted that there will be a conservative-Green
government. "Some people think that would be rather nice. But you need to
be careful that in the end, you don't wake up to another scenario: namely
Greens, SPD, and the Left." But according to current polling, those less
conservative parties would not have the numbers to form a majority coalition.
Watch video11:22
The CDU's future, and personal picks for
Chancellor
A
polarized society
The far-right AfD, currently the strongest
opposition party in parliament, is seeing its support sink. However, the
restrictions imposed because of the pandemic could drive new voters toward
them. "We're experiencing a divided country," said Hartleb. "If
economic decline follows the coronavirus trauma, then the social polarization
will remain."
In any case, the political scientist is
convinced that the COVID-19 pandemic will remain the most important topic of
2021.
"Coronavirus is the biggest crisis
since 1945, with a significance which affects all levels of politics, from the
local to the global."
This article was translated from German.
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