America Is
the New Center of Global Instability
Jan 12, 2021
Following the storming of the US Capitol, President Donald Trump is
desperate for an exit ramp that will preserve both his fragile ego and his
future political influence. Unfortunately, that conundrum leaves him with few
options other than to foment even more chaos both at home and abroad.
NEW YORK – Whether the storming of the US Capitol was an attempted coup, an
insurrection, or an assault on democracy is merely a question of semantics.
What matters is that the violence was aimed at derailing a legitimate
transition of power for the benefit and at the behest of a dangerous madman.
President Donald Trump, who has never hidden his dictatorial aspirations,
should now be removed from power, barred from public office, and prosecuted for
high crimes.
1.
JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ highlights
the challenges that need to be overcome to avoid a recurrence of Donald Trump's
toxic presidency.
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After all, the events of January 6 may have been shocking, but they were
not surprising. I and many other commentators had long warned that the 2020 election would bring
civil unrest, violence, and attempts by Trump to remain in power illegally.
Beyond his election-related crimes, Trump is also guilty of a reckless disregard for public health. He
and his administration bear much of the blame for the massive COVID-19 death
toll in the United States, which accounts for only 4% of the global
population but 20% of all
coronavirus deaths.
Once a beacon of democracy, rule of law, and good governance, the US now
looks like a banana republic that is incapable of controlling either a
contagious disease – despite spending more on
health care per capita than any other country – or mobs incited by a wannabe
dictator. Authoritarian leaders around the world are now laughing at the US and
scoffing at American critiques of others’ political misrule. As if the damage
done to US soft power over the past four years was not immense enough, Trump’s
failed insurrection has undermined America’s standing even more.
Worse, although President-elect Joe Biden will be inaugurated in about a
week, that is plenty of time for Trump to create more mayhem. Right-wing
militias and white supremacists are already planning more acts
of protest, violence, and racial warfare in cities across the US. And strategic
rivals such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea will be looking to exploit the chaos by sowing
disinformation or launching cyber-attacks, including potentially against
critical US infrastructure.
At the same time, a desperate Trump may try to “wag the dog” by ordering a
strike – perhaps with a tactical nuclear warhead – on Iran’s main nuclear
facility in Natanz, on the grounds that it is being used to enrich uranium. Far
from this being out of the question, the Trump administration has already held drills with
stealth bombers and fighter jets – loaded, for the first time, with tactical nuclear weapons –
to signal to Iran that its air defenses are no defense at all.
No wonder Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi felt the need to reach out to
the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff to discuss steps to
prevent a nuclear strike by the Dr. Strangelove in the White House. Whereas an
unwarranted order to launch a nuclear attack on a target with a large civilian
population would be rejected by the military as obviously “illegal,” an attack
on a military target in a non-populated area might not be, even if it would have dire
geopolitical consequences. Moreover, Trump knows that both Saudi Arabia and
Israel would tacitly support an attack on Iran (indeed, the US may avail itself
of Saudi logistical and ground support to carry one out, given the shorter
range of nuclear-armed fighter jets).
The prospect of an attack on Iran may give Vice President Mike Pence the
pretext he needs to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from power. But
even if this were to happen, it would not necessarily be a win for democracy
and the rule of law. Trump could – and likely would – be pardoned by Pence (as
Richard Nixon was by Gerald Ford), allowing him to run for president again in
2024 or be a kingmaker in that election, given that he now controls the
Republican party and its base. Removing Trump with the promise of a pardon may
be a Faustian deal that Pence strikes with Trump.
Because the self-pardon that Trump has been considering might
not pass constitutional muster, it is reasonable to assume that he will be
groping around for other creative outs. He cannot simply resign and allow Pence
to issue a pardon, because that would make him look like a “loser” who accepted
defeat (the worst insult in Trump’s egomaniacal lexicon). But if the president
were to order an attack on Iran and then become a (pardoned) martyr, he could
both preserve his base and avoid accountability. By the same token, Trump
cannot risk being impeached (again), because that would open up the possibility
of his being disqualified from holding office in the future. By this reasoning,
he has every incentive to go out with a bang and on his own terms.
If this all sounds like the final days of Nero “fiddling while Rome
burned,” that’s because it is. The decay of the American empire appears to be
hastening rapidly. Given how politically, socially, and economically divided
the US is, four years of sound leadership under Biden will not be enough to
reverse the damage that has been done. Most likely, the Republicans will do
everything they can to sabotage the new administration, as they did with former
President Barack Obama.
Even before the election, US national-security agencies were warning that
domestic right-wing terrorism and violence would remain the primary home-grown
threat to the US. With Biden in office, this risk will be higher still. For the
last four years, heavily armed white-supremacist militias have been kept
relatively at bay by dint of the fact that they had an ally in the White House.
But once Trump is gone, the groups whom he has instructed to “stand back and
stand by” will not simply accept Democratic control of the presidency and
Congress. Trump, operating from Mar-a-Lago, will continue to incite the mob
with more lies, conspiracy theories, and falsehoods about a stolen election.
The US will thus most likely be the world’s new epicenter of political and
geopolitical instability in the months and years ahead. America’s allies will
need to hedge their bets against a future return of Trumpism, and strategic
rivals will continue to try to destabilize the US through asymmetric warfare.
The world is in for a long, ugly, bumpy ride.
Writing for PS since 2007
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Nouriel
Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University's Stern School of
Business and Chairman of Roubini
Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in
the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton
Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US
Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of
NourielToday.com.
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