What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal?
The United States’ withdrawal from the
arms control agreement has heightened tensions and left the remaining
signatories scrambling to keep the deal alive.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif meet in 2016. Kevin
Lamarque/Reuters
WRITTEN BY
UPDATED
Last updated January 4, 2021
Summary
·
Signed
in 2015 by Iran and several world powers, including the United States, the
JCPOA placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for
sanctions relief.
·
President
Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, claiming it failed to
curtail Iran’s missile program and regional influence. Iran began ignoring
limitations on its nuclear program a year later.
·
President-Elect
Biden has pledged to return the United States to the JCPOA if Iran resumes
compliance, but it is unclear whether Iran will agree to new negotiations.
Introduction
The
Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA), is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world
powers, including the United States, in July 2015. Under its terms, Iran agreed
to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more
extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth
of sanctions relief.
However,
the deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald J. Trump withdrew the
United States from it in 2018. In response to the U.S. departure, as well as to
deadly attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020, including one by the United
States, Iran has resumed some of its nuclear activities.
The
election of Joe Biden, who supports a U.S. return to the agreement, has spurred
some expectations of renewed diplomacy.
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Who are the participants?
The
JCPOA, which went into effect in January 2016, imposes restrictions on Iran’s
civilian nuclear enrichment program. At the heart of negotiations with Iran
were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France,
Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany—collectively
known as the P5+1. The European Union also took part.
What were their goals?
The
P5+1 wanted to unwind Iran’s nuclear program to the point that if Tehran
decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would take at
least one year, giving world powers time to respond. Heading into the JCPOA negotiations, U.S.
intelligence officials estimated that, in the absence of an agreement, Iran could
produce enough nuclear material for a weapon in a few months.
Iran
had previously agreed to forgo the development of nuclear weapons as a
signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which has been in force since
1970. However, after the overthrow
of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, Iranian leaders secretly
pursued this technology. (In 2007, U.S. intelligence analysts concluded that
Iran halted its work on nuclear weapons in 2003 but continued to acquire
nuclear technology and expertise.)
Prior
to the JCPOA, the P5+1 had been negotiating with Iran for years, offering its
government various incentives to halt uranium enrichment. After the 2013
election of President Hassan Rouhani, who was viewed as a reformer, the parties
came to a preliminary agreement to guide negotiations for a comprehensive deal.
For
its part, Iran sought the JCPOA for relief from international sanctions, which starved
its economy [PDF] of more than $100 billion in revenues in
2012–2014 alone.
Does it prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons?
Many
experts say that if all parties adhered to their pledges, the deal almost
certainly could have achieved that goal for longer than a decade. Many of
the JCPOA’s
restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program have expiration dates.
For example, after ten years (from January 2016), centrifuge restrictions will
be lifted, and after fifteen years, so too will limits on the amount of
low-enriched uranium Iran can possess. The International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, is also set to lose access to
Iran’s undeclared nuclear sites in 2030.
What did Iran agree to?
Nuclear
restrictions. Iran agreed not to produce either the highly
enriched uranium or the plutonium that could be used in a nuclear weapon. It
also took steps to ensure that its Fordow, Natanz, and Arak facilities pursued
only civilian work, including medical and industrial research.
The
accord limits the numbers and types of centrifuges Iran can operate, the level
of its enrichment, as well as the size of its stockpile of enriched uranium.
(Mined uranium has less than 1 percent of the uranium-235
isotope used in fission reactions, and centrifuges increase
that isotope’s concentration. Uranium enriched to 5 percent is used in nuclear
power plants, and at 20 percent it can be used in research reactors or for
medical purposes. High-enriched uranium, at some 90 percent, is used in nuclear
weapons.)
Monitoring
and verification. Iran agreed to eventually implement a protocol
that would allow IAEA inspectors unfettered access to its nuclear facilities
and potentially to undeclared sites. However, it has yet to fulfill this
pledge. Inspections are intended to guard against the possibility that Iran
could develop nuclear arms in secret, as it has allegedly attempted
before. The IAEA issues
quarterly reports to its board of governors and the UN Security
Council on Iran’s implementation of its nuclear commitments.
A
body known as the Joint Commission, which includes representatives of all the
negotiating parties, monitors implementation of the agreement and resolves
disputes that may arise. A majority vote by its members can gain IAEA inspectors
access to suspicious, undeclared sites. The body also oversees the transfer of
nuclear-related or dual-use materials.
What did the other signatories agree to?
Sanctions
relief. The EU, United Nations, and United States all
committed to lifting their nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. However,
many other
U.S. sanctions on Iran, some dating back to the 1979 hostage
crisis, remained in effect. They cover matters such as Iran’s ballistic missile
program, support for terrorist groups, and human rights abuses. Though the
United States committed to lifting its sanctions on oil exports, it kept restrictions on financial transactions, which have
deterred international trade with Iran.
Weapons
embargo. The parties agreed to lift an existing UN ban [PDF]
on Iran’s transfer of conventional weapons and ballistic missiles after five
years if the IAEA certifies that Iran is only engaged in civilian nuclear
activity.
How is the Iran deal enforced?
If
any signatory suspects Iran is violating the deal, the UN Security Council may
vote on whether to continue sanctions relief. This “snapback” mechanism remains
in effect for ten years, after which the UN sanctions are set to be permanently
removed.
In
April 2020, the United States announced its intention to snap back sanctions.
The other P5 members objected
to the move, saying the United States could not unilaterally
implement the mechanism because it left the nuclear deal in 2018.
What is the status of the deal?
The
agreement got off to a fairly smooth start. The IAEA certified in early 2016
that Iran had met its preliminary pledges; and the United States, EU, and
United Nations responded by repealing or suspending their sanctions. Most
significantly, U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration dropped secondary
sanctions on the oil sector, which allowed Iran to ramp up its oil exports
to nearly the
level it was prior to sanctions. The United States and many
European nations also unfroze about $100 billion worth of frozen Iranian
assets.
However,
the deal has been near collapse since President Trump withdrew the United
States from it in 2018 and reinstated devastating banking and oil sanctions.
Trump said the agreement failed to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and
its proxy warfare in the region, and he claimed that the sunset provisions
would enable Iran to pursue nuclear weapons in the future.
Timeline of
U.S.-Iran Relations
Iran
accused the United States of reneging on its commitments, and faulted Europe
for submitting to U.S. unilateralism. In a bid to keep the agreement alive,
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom launched a barter system, known as
INSTEX, to facilitate transactions with Iran outside of the U.S. banking
system. However, the system is only meant for food and medicine, which are
already exempt from U.S. sanctions.
Following
the U.S. withdrawal, several countries—U.S. allies among them—continued to
import Iranian oil under waivers granted by the Trump administration, and Iran
continued to abide by its commitments. But a year later, the United States
ended the waivers with the aim of halting Iran’s oil exports completely.
What is Iran’s current nuclear activity?
In
response to the other parties’ actions, which Tehran claimed amounted to
breaches of the deal, Iran started exceeding agreed-upon limits to its
stockpile of low-enriched uranium in 2019, and began enriching uranium to
higher concentrations (though still far short of the purity required for
weapons). It also began developing
new centrifuges to accelerate uranium enrichment; resuming
heavy water production at its Arak facility; and enriching uranium [PDF]
at Fordow, which rendered the isotopes produced there unusable for medical
purposes.
Iran’s Major Nuclear Facilities
TURKMENISTAN
CASPIAN
SEA
Arak
Tehran
Research and
heavy water production
Research
Fordow
Uranium enrichment and research
Natanz
AFGHANISTAN
IRAQ
Uranium enrichment and research
Isfahan
Research and
uranium conversion and manufacturing
IRAN
Bushehr
Nuclear energy production
SAUDI ARABIA
0
100 mi
PERSIAN
GULF
0
250 km
Note: Locations are approximate, as some
facilities are located outside of cities.
Sources : International Atomic Energy Agency;
Nuclear Threat Initiative.
In
2020, Iran took more steps away from its nuclear pledges, following a series of
attacks on its interests. In January, after the U.S. targeted killing of a top
Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, Iran announced that it would no longer limit its
uranium enrichment. In October, it began constructing a centrifuge production
center at Natanz to replace one that was destroyed months earlier in an
attack it
blamed on Israel. And in November, in response to the
assassination of a prominent nuclear scientist, which it also
attributed to Israel, Iran’s parliament passed a law that led to a substantial
boost in enrichment at Fordow and that could eventually limit IAEA inspections.
So
far, though, Iran has allowed IAEA inspections to continue. In August 2020, it
agreed to provide the
IAEA access to two suspected former nuclear sites, ending a
monthslong standoff over the agency’s investigation into possible undeclared
nuclear materials.
How has the deal affected Iran’s economy?
Prior
to the JCPOA, Iran’s
economy suffered years of recession, currency depreciation, and
inflation, largely because of sanctions on its energy sector. With the
sanctions lifted, inflation slowed, exchange rates stabilized, and
exports—especially of oil, agricultural goods, and luxury items—skyrocketed as
Iran regained trading partners, particularly in the EU. After the JCPOA took
effect, Iran began exporting more than 2.1 million barrels per day (approaching
pre-2012 levels, when the oil sanctions were originally put in place). However,
these improvements did not translate to a significant increase in the average
Iranian household’s budget.
The
end of sanctions waivers on oil exports and the restoration of U.S. sanctions
in 2018 has once again cut deeply into a vital source of national revenue: oil
and petroleum products account for 80 percent [PDF]
of Iran’s exports. By mid-2020, oil exports had plummeted [PDF]
to below three hundred thousand barrels per day. Additionally, in October of
that year, the United States imposed sanctions on eighteen major Iranian banks,
causing the Iranian rial to fall further against the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile,
the wide range of U.S. sanctions unrelated to the nuclear program have added to
the damage. Multinational firms fear being punished by the United States for
transacting with sanctioned Iranian entities associated with, for example,
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which
holds sway over many industries. With sanctions deterring international trade,
black markets have boomed, enriching
the IRGC at the expense of the regular economy.
What is the outlook for the agreement?
The
fate of the Iran nuclear deal remains uncertain, although some experts see
Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election as an opportunity for renewed
diplomacy. Biden has said the United States would
rejoin the agreement if Iran returns to compliance, but that he
also wants to negotiate a successor agreement to address Iran’s other
activities, such as its missile program.
Iran
has called for the United States to return to the deal but has said it is not
willing to discuss expanding the accord further. Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif told CFR in
September 2020 that Iran would “absolutely not” renegotiate and that the United
States must compensate Iran for damages caused by sanctions.
However,
the prospects for new negotiations could dim come June 2021, when Iran is set
to elect a new president. Many analysts say a conservative, hard-line candidate
will likely replace President Rouhani, whose popularity has plummeted with the
unraveling of the nuclear deal.
Recommended Resources
The
Congressional Research Service takes
stock of Iran’s nuclear program [PDF].
The
International Crisis Group visualizes Iran-related sanctions levied by the
Trump administration.
The
trade publication Bourse & Bazaar assesses INSTEX.
The European
Council on Foreign Relations’ Ellie Geranmayeh lays out a roadmap for bringing
the JCPOA parties back to compliance.
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