Posted
on January 20, 2021
by Ali Tuygan
January 20, 2021
With inauguration safely behind, President Biden would now start addressing
America’s polarization, Covid-19, and a wrecked foreign policy. He has a far
heavier agenda than many of his predecessors.
Among his major tasks in the international arena would be restoring
confidence in the Washington’s foreign policy steadiness and charting a
reasonable course in relations with China and Russia. Washington’s traditional
Western allies, disillusioned with the Trump presidency, would give Mr. Biden
more than a warm welcome while anxiously watching domestic developments in the
US. Because according to a CNN poll, 47% of Republicans still say the party
should continue to treat Trump as the leader of the party. And remains to be
seen whether going ahead with a second impeachment, though more than justified,
was a politically wise decision.
Regrettably, from the very beginning of his presidency Mr. Trump denigrated
his predecessor, past administrations, and tried to upend their policies. He
and his sanctions lieutenant Mr. Pompeo displayed little respect for
multilateralism and left Biden administration a US foreign policy in disarray.
Mike Pompeo’s campaign to lay mines on Mr. Biden’s foreign policy path up to
inauguration day was morally unacceptable.
In an interview in early April 2015, President Obama told Thomas Friedman
of the New York Times that “engagement,”
combined with meeting core strategic needs could serve American interests
vis-à-vis countries like Burma, Cuba, and Iran far better than
endless sanctions and isolation.
Thus, on April 14, 2015, the Obama administration removed Cuba from the US
State Sponsors of Terrorism List. On July 1, the same year, President Obama
announced that the two countries were reopening their embassies after more than
50 years. On March 21, 2016, he made a historic visit to Cuba, the first by a
US president in nearly ninety years. Once in office President Trump started
reversing that policy. On January 11, 2021, just nine days before Mr.
Biden’s inauguration, Mr. Pompeo designated Cuba as a state sponsor of
terrorism, reversing Obama administration’s 2015 decision.
On July 14, 2015, the JCPOA was
signed and hailed as a major diplomatic achievement. On May 8, 2018, the Trump
administration officially withdrew from the agreement. On September 19, 2020
Secretary Pompeo announced that sanctions were being re-imposed on Iran
pursuant to the snapback process under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR)
2231. Moreover, Washington threatened those who would not follow the US
example. The next day, Foreign Ministers of France, Germany and the UK issued a
joint statement saying that the US has ceased to be a participant to the JCPOA
following its withdrawal from the deal on May 8, 2018 and consequently its
decision to re-impose sanctions was incapable of having legal effect. Indeed,
the JCPOA is not a bilateral agreement between Iran and the US. It is a
multilateral one between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security
Council and Germany. It has been approved by the UN Security Council and
supported by the international community.
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The “Paris Agreement Under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change” was signed on December 12, 2015. On
November 4, 2019, the Trump administration notified the UN Secretary-General of
its decision to withdraw from the Agreement to take effect on November 4, 2020.
On October 12, 2017, the US notified UNESCO of the
decision to withdraw from the organization citing “concerns with mounting arrears at UNESCO, the need for
fundamental reform in the organization, and continuing anti-Israel bias at
UNESCO”. This was the second US withdrawal from the
Organization.
Finally, on January 9, just eleven days before Mr. Biden’s inauguration,
Secretary Pompeo lifted all restrictions to regulate American diplomats,
servicemembers, and other officials’ interactions with their Taiwanese counterparts. In a press statement he said
the US government had these unilateral restrictions to appease Beijing, adding,
“No more.”
So much for Trump administration’s respect for multilateralism, for pacta sunt servanda (agreements must be honored),
the oldest principle of international law, and an administration’s obligation
to leave its successor a reasonably clean slate.
Mr. Biden was the Vice President during Mr. Obama’s eight years in office.
Understandably, his administration’s foreign policy would neither be a carbon
copy of Mr. Obama’s nor something fundamentally different. Going back to
the Paris Agreement may not be a difficult task but putting the JCPOA back on
track and dealing with Iran’s regional outreach are likely to prove a challenge.
The nomination of Wendy Sherman, the chief negotiator of the Iran nuclear deal,
as the next deputy secretary of state is no surprise. Needless to say, what
paved the way for Tehran’s growing regional outreach was the invasion of Iraq
and the regime change project in Syria.
Looking at President Trump’s four years in office from the Middle East, one cannot but conclude that this has been
a period of remarkable success for PM Netanyahu. All US allies let alone
adversaries experienced problems with the Trump White House, he was the
exception.
Formal diplomatic relation between Israel and Arab countries would
facilitate Biden administration’s approach to the Middle East, in particular
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In his address to the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, 2013
President Obama had said:
“… The United States will at times work with
governments that do not meet, at least in our view, the highest international
expectations, but who work with us on our core interests. Nevertheless,
we will not stop asserting principles that are consistent with our ideals,
whether that means opposing the use of violence as a means of suppressing
dissent, or supporting the principles embodied in the Universal Declaration of
Human Rights…”
Succeeding Mr. Trump whose “cozy relations with strongmen” was a target of
criticism, President Biden’s approach to the Middle East would not fall short
of that.
Washington’s Syria and Libya policies are unlikely to change. Washington
would continue to look at the latter as Europe’s problem.
In Afghanistan, the West finds itself at a critical juncture because in
order to fulfil Mr. Trump’s election promise to bring US troops home, his
administration has moved dangerously close to capitulation to the Taliban. But
the current picture in Afghanistan is the result of years of failure for which
the Trump White House cannot be held responsible.
North Korea’s nuclear program would be a tough problem also for the new
administration. During the final debate of the election, Mr. Biden criticized
President Trump for legitimizing Kim Jong-un with summit meetings and said he
would meet with him under the condition that “he would agree that he would be
drawing down his nuclear capacity.” At some point, however, Washington may have
no other option than recognizing Pyongyang as a nuclear power and focus on
preventing further proliferation.
As for Turkey, Ankara put all its eggs in Mr. Trump’s broken basket.
Finally, domestic disarray in Washington gave Secretary Pompeo the opportunity
to vent his pent-up frustration with Ankara, taking the roller-coaster
relationship to new lows. At present, this relationship looks less like a
“strategic” or “model” partnership as it was once exaggeratedly defined and
more like a strained business relationship between two partners barely putting
up with one another. What the two countries need is a reset but, unfortunately,
an overarching problem of chemistry and a long list of intractable problems
would not allow that. Yes, in international relations the word “reset” marks a
new beginning, turning of the page between adversaries but it is also relevant
in this particular context.
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