Tuesday, October 6, 2026

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy - October 6, 2026 - Will Turkey Align with Washington’s Iran “Economic Outcast” Policy? Richard Nephew and Soner Cagaptay October 6, 2026

 

PolicyWatch 4273

Will Turkey Align with Washington’s Iran “Economic Outcast” Policy?

Richard Nephew and Soner Cagaptay
October 6, 2026

READ THIS ITEM ON OUR WEBSITE

Ankara appears to be moving toward greater alignment with U.S. sanctions, but its willingness to commit to full cooperation remains in question.





On September 4, the U.S. Treasury Department 

sanctioned Turkey’s Golden Global Bank, a relatively 

small institution, for having “facilitated tens of 

millions of dollars’ worth of transactions for the 

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force 

(IRGC-QF).” Shortly thereafter, on September 19, 

Turkey revoked the operating license of Bank Mellat, 

a major (and oft-sanctioned) Iranian financial 

institution with a decades-long presence on its soil.


Ankara has often turned a blind eye when Iran 

evaded sanctions through Turkish financial

institutions, especially the large, 

publiclowned Halkbank. For this reason, the Trump 

administration made Turkey a priority partner i

Operation Economic Outcast, and Ankara appears to 

have been responsive. But it is still not clear whether 

the steps Turkey is taking indicate a real change in its 

position toward illicit Iranian financing or just 

another move on the diplomatic seesaw.


Turkey’s Troubling Role in Iran Sanctions Evasion


Turkey boasts an advanced and diversified economy, 

the largest in the Middle East and East 

Mediterranean. It often acts as a clearinghouse for 

regional and global financial transactions, including 

for Iran. Although the two countries engage in 

extensive competition over various regional issues, 

Turkey’s direct proximity to Iran, integration into 

global markets and international aviation, and open 

economy have enabled Tehran to carry out significant 

financial activity there. Ankara’s propensity to look 

the other way—demonstrated by Bank Mellat’s 

continued presence there despite years of U.S. and 

European sanctions—has further enabled Iranian 

financial activity.


The case of Halkbank, which directly facilitated 

Iranian sanctions evasion throughout the previous 

decade, is one of the clearest demonstrations of 

Turkish institutional support for Iran and the impact 

it has on U.S.-Turkish ties. As part of the Halkbank 

scheme—which some analysts describe as the 

“largest sanctions evasion scheme in modern 

history”—various actors in Turkey provided gold in 

exchange for Iranian natural gas and oil, while 

Halkbank processed the subsequent transactions of 

gold to foreign currencies. Between March 2012 and 

July 2013, this scheme provided Iran with $13 billion. 

It was then expanded to include falsified food trade 

transactions, generating millions of dollars for the 

perpetrators.


The scheme also involved direct use of the U.S. 

financial system, a criminal act. For this reason, the 

U.S. government took Halkbank and its officials to 

court rather than cutting off ties, filing charges in the 

Southern District of New York in October 2019. Prior 

to opening the criminal case, U.S. Attorney Geoffrey 

Berman stated that “the bank’s audacious conduct 

was supported...by high-ranking Turkish

government officials, some of whom received 

millions of dollars in bribes to promote and protect 

the scheme.”


Halkbank was the most prominent sanctions evasion 

case to emerge worldwide during this period—an 

especially concerning development given Turkey’s 

status as a NATO member and U.S. ally. Ankara’s 

inconsistent cooperation with U.S. sanctions against 

terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah has been 

troublesome as well. Yet Washington has long 

viewed Turkey as an important potential partner for 

sanctions cooperation, believing that if Ankara 

cooperated more fully, the benefits could be 

substantial.


Developments Under Operation Economic Outcast

As noted, Turkey has begun to take more action 

against Iranian financial activity, cracking down on 

Bank Mellat in the wake of the Golden Global Bank 

sanctions. On September 16, Turkey seized a 99.98 

percent ​stake in Golden Global; the next day, it 

liquidated six of the funds managed by the bank. 

This, along with the  September 19 action against 

Bank Mellat, may signal the start of a wider process 

of denying Iran access to the Turkish financial sector.

Ankara also seems to be taking some steps to deny 

Iranian access to its commercial airspace. On 

September 18, it announced the cessation of Mahan 

Air flights to Turkey due to U.S. sanctions concerns. 

The airline, one of Iran’s largest, is involved in 

smuggling for the IRGC. In addition, three Turkish 

airlines—the publicly owned, low-cost AJet, the 

privately owned Pegasus Air, and the flag carrier 

Turkish Airlines—reportedly canceled all flights to 

and from Iran until March 2027. (These flights still 

appear to be operating at the time of writing.) 

Turkish authorities also recently impounded an 

Iranian aircraft with unpaid operating debts, seizing the plane on September 28 after passengers boarded.


Around 50 to 100 flights travel weekly between Iran 

and Turkey, which is a destination for Iranian 

businesspeople and tourists as well as a hub for those 

continuing to other destinations. Perhaps more 

important, Iran receives cargo flights from Turkey 

(which can be used for smuggling), while the ability 

to fly over Turkish territory gives it physical access to 

otherwise inaccessible locations. If Ankara takes 

further steps to block Iranian access to its commercial 

airspace, this will have key ramifications for the 

regime’s domestic standing and ability to conduct 

illicit transactions.


The Big Picture: U.S.-Turkey Ties and Iran Sanctions


Ankara’s willingness to take initial steps in support 

of Operation Economic Outcast seems driven by 

several factors: its policy of positive engagement with 

the Trump administration; the chemistry between 

Presidents Erdogan and Trump; U.S. concessions to 

Turkey, such as the June agreement to settle the 

Halkbank case and drop the charges; and Ankara’s 

policy of leveraging the previous two dynamics to 

secure coveted U.S. F-35 fighter jets. It is not yet clear, 

however, whether these limited steps are sufficient 

for a tougher vigilance regime.


Another issue of concern is Turkey’s natural gas 

imports from Iran. As a G20 economy with no 

nuclear power or major hydrocarbon deposits,Turkey 

relies on large energy imports to fuel its growth. This 

includes last year’s purchase of 8.17 billion cubic 

meters of natural gas from Iran, equivalent to nearly 

13 percent of its overall gas consumption. 

Washington is sensitive to this need and has avoided 

sanctioning Iran’s gas exports to Turkey; the 

occasional disruptions in that supply are mainly due 

to Iran’s struggles with internal distribution, not any 

U.S. restrictions. Yet the twenty-five-year Iran-Turkey 

gas deal expired in July, and both governments have 

been silent on whether a new deal is in process. 

According to a report in IranWire, “it remains unclear 

whether a clause permitting an automatic five-year 

extension has been triggered.”


Natural gas sales rely on long-term contracts and 

costly infrastructure that takes years to build. Even if 

Ankara wished to completely wean itself off Iranian 

supplies, it would not be able to do so overnight. 

Perhaps in order to signal good faith to Washington, 

it started buying large amounts of liquefied natural 

gas from the United States; in 2025, it imported 9.19 

billion cubic meters, making it the largest European 

consumer of U.S. LNG.


Of course, Turkey is unlikely to ever cut economic ties to Iran completely, especially as some of their traded goods, such as food and medicine, are covered by U.S. sanctions waivers. This means that Turkish financial institutions and regulators will need to exercise heightened vigilance to make sure these ties are not abused.

U.S. Policy Recommendations

To help transform Turkey’s initial sanctions moves into a potentially wider and more effective strategic shift, Washington should use its positive dynamics with Ankara to seek deeper bilateral alignment on Iran policy. Three areas stand out as immediate priorities:

Ask Turkey to enforce a strict screening and inspection regime at the Iranian border. This would help prevent contraband from getting through, especially as pressure builds at congested crossings. In particular, Washington is concerned about Iran importing goods that could support its missile and drone forces. This should be the priority for Turkish monitoring.

Push Turkey to adopt a far more stringent approach to local Iranian banking activity. Turkey need not adhere to U.S. sanctions to make this change. As a member of the Financial Action Task Force, it is already operating under a request to “apply effective countermeasures on Iran,” which would include measures to prevent Iranian banks or virtual asset service providers from establishing subsidiaries and branches in Turkey. The last FATF mutual evaluation report for Turkey showed progress but also deficiencies, particularly in the implementation of measures to prevent sanctions evasion.

Intensify cooperation to shut down IRGC-related networks in Turkey. The IRGC and related groups have used Turkish territory to evade sanctions, support terrorist groups, and target dissidents. Expanded U.S.-Turkish collaboration to roll up those networks should be an element not only of Operation Economic Outcast, but also of the broader bilateral approach to countering threats from Iran.

Establish a high-level bilateral working group on diversifying Turkish natural gas imports. Although U.S. officials should avoid pushing Ankara to immediately stop importing Iranian gas, the two governments should form a working group on this issue as soon as possible.

More broadly, while seeking greater Turkish cooperation on a pressure strategy is important, Washington should keep in mind that this is probably not sufficient to change the overall financial picture for the Iranian regime. Other countries, especially China and the United Arab Emirates, are more significant economic partners for Iran. Nevertheless, an increased Turkish contribution to a sanctions pressure strategy would be meaningful.


Richard Nephew is the Bernstein Adjunct Fellow at The 

Washington Institute and former U.S. deputy special 

envoy for Iran. Soner Cagaptay is the Institute’s Beyer 

Family Senior Fellow and director of its Turkish 

Research Program.