A new violent escalation in the US – Iran war in the Middle East has been raging for an entire week. Credit: X / U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM
The latest escalation in the US – Iran war has continued for an entire week with reciprocal strikes after the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement between the two countries.
Following a seventh straight night of US strikes targeting Iranian military sites, Iran has continued to launch renewed attacks on American Gulf allies.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) said American forces ended the seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran on July 17 at 9:30 p.m. ET., during which they hit surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage, and maritime capabilities.
The attack employed fighter aircraft, aerial drones, and warships in addition to other assets.
On the other hand, Kuwait came under sustained attack by Iran with a desalination plant hit and operations at Kuwait International Airport suspended due to repeated missile and drone threats, per Reuters. Iranian sources claimed they struck a US military support center at Camp Arifjan and a radar facility at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, as well as a site where US combat aircraft were gathered at Sheikh Isa Air Base and an intelligence data center.
“Since there is no international institution to prevent the savagery of the US military, we have no path before us except the Quranic command: ‘Whoever attacks you, attack it in the same manner,’” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said in a statement warning American allies in the region to expect more strikes.
50,000 US service members operate across Middle East during war with Iran
The recent developments have fueled concern over the possibility that the two sides could return to full-scale conflict. The violent escalation was triggered the previous weekend after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces attacked M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transit.
“Iran was provided yet another opportunity to demonstrate adherence to the Memorandum of Understanding after being held accountable for earlier attacks on commercial vessels but has again failed,” US Central Command posted on X on July 12. “In response, the United States is imposing a heavy cost by continuing to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the strait.”
Consequently, after the third round of strikes, a sharp spike was observed in crude prices as Asian markets opened last Monday. In the first three days of renewed implementation of the naval blockade against Iran, US forces had redirected four commercial vessels, disabled one, and boarded another to ensure full compliance.
More than fifty thousand American service members are operating across the Middle East according to the latest announcement by the US Central Command. “CENTCOM continues to hold Iran accountable at the Commander in Chief’s direction while fully enforcing a naval blockade against Iranian ports,” the announcement read.
Greece is reportedly facing allied pressure to supply Patriot missiles to Ukraine, which has requested up to 200 PAC-2 interceptors from Greek stockpiles. Credit: STR / AMNA
Greece is reportedly facing renewed pressure from NATO and European Union partners to provide Patriot missiles to Ukraine, as Kyiv seeks additional interceptors to defend against Russian ballistic missile attacks.
Ukraine has requested up to 200 PAC-2 missiles from Hellenic Air Force stockpiles, according to the Greek daily Kathimerini, citing informed sources. Neither the Greek nor the Ukrainian government has publicly confirmed the request or the reported number.
Greece-Ukraine talks shift from Patriot batteries to missiles
Earlier discussions focused on the possible transfer of some of Greece’s six Patriot batteries but ended without an agreement, according to reports. The latest talks concern interceptor stockpiles rather than complete air defense systems.
The issue has a longer history. EU and NATO allies had pressed Athens to provide additional air defense support to Ukraine. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis rejected the transfer of either a Patriot or an S-300 system, arguing that both remained critical to Greece’s deterrent capabilities.
Ukrainian officials reportedly believe some of the requested PAC-2 interceptors have been in service with the Hellenic Air Force for about 23 years and may be nearing the end of their operational lifespan.
Greek military authorities would need to determine that any missiles released remain usable but no longer serve an essential operational role. According to the report, one option under discussion would involve Greece selling the missiles to Norway, which would then deliver them to Ukraine.
Greece points to existing security role
Greek officials have emphasized the country’s ongoing contribution to allied security, including its Patriot deployment in Saudi Arabia. The Greek Ministry of National Defense says the mission began in September 2021 to strengthen Saudi air and ballistic missile defenses. The battery also helps protect critical energy infrastructure.
In March 2026, Defense Minister Nikos Dendias reported that the Greek Patriot unit intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Saudi refineries. He argued that the deployment serves wider European interests by helping safeguard energy supplies. Greece previously supplied Sea Sparrow and Crotale missiles to Ukraine after the weapons were deemed to be nearing the end of their operational service life.
Ukraine faces chronic interceptor shortage
Ukraine continues to face a severe shortage of Patriot interceptors as Russian forces intensify ballistic missile attacks on cities and critical energy infrastructure.
The shortage has forced Ukraine to determine which locations and facilities it can defend. Plans to produce Patriot interceptors domestically in Ukraine will not provide immediate relief, with defense experts estimating that production could take at least a year to begin.
Turkey is actively pursuing a strategy to divest itself of its Russian-made S-400 air defense system, including selling it off to potential buyers. However, analysts remain skeptical thatit alone would be sufficient to secure Turkey’s full return to the F-35 program.
Turkish media claimed last week that Ankara’s Russian-origin S-400 air defense systems would be sold to a third country, with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) emerging as potential customers. The move is meant to convince the US to remove CAATSA sanctions imposed on Ankara for purchasing the S-400s.
Turkey seems to have finally confirmed that an effort to dispose of the Russian-origin system is gathering steam. The Ministry of National Defense said that “multilateral work” was underway and the public would be informed “once concrete steps are taken” while responding to queries about the S-400’s sale to a third country.
Optimism About Turkey’s Return To F-35 Imminent?
Despite being a founding member of the F-35 program with significant financial investment, Turkey was expelled from the consortium by the US and sanctioned under CAATSA for purchasing the S-400 despite repeated warnings. The rationale was simple: operating the Russian S-400 alongside the American F-35 could compromise sensitive stealth technology.
On its part, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan government risked buying the Russian S-400 because it urgently needed a long-range air defense system amid rising security threats, and the advanced NATO-origin systems sought by Ankara, including Patriot and SAMP/T, were either denied or delayed. Moreover, Ankara sought a policy realignment and pursued closer ties with Moscow amid mutual suspicions with Washington and other Western allies following the 2016 coup, as detailed in a EurAsian Times report.
Despite the perils associated with its purchase, the S-400 was never activated, let alone integrated into the Turkish air defense network, as Ankara continued to pursue the F-35.
While the S-400’s fate in Turkey remained undecided, Ankara has been eager to relinquish the Russian system to make way for the American F-35, especially since it is steadily losing its air-power edge in the region, with both Israel and Greece acquiring F-35s.
In fact, a host of options have been considered over the years to create conditions conducive to its return to the stealth fighter program: keeping the S-400 inactive, storing it at a US base, selling it to a third country, or returning it to Russia.
Speaking alongside Erdogan after arriving in Ankara for the NATO leaders’ summit on July 7, Trump said, “We’re going to lift the sanctions. We don’t want to sanction our friends. I don’t want to choke my friend with sanctions.” Furthermore, when asked whether F-35 will finally be sold to Turkey, Trump said, “That’s a decision we’re going to make… It’s a great plane, the best plane by far, and it’s certainly something we will consider.”
Following these comments, a Bloomberg report citing unidentified Turkish officials stated that the US could deliver a batch of 6 F-35s, depending on when sanctions on Ankara are lifted, whereas Turkish President Erdogan separately expressed confidence that Washington would support the sale of F-35s to his country.
That said, the prospect of selling the S-400 systems to a Gulf state such as Qatar or the UAE — in hopes of regaining access to the F-35 — is far from straightforward. While appealing in theory, the plan faces significant practical, diplomatic, and security challenges.
Notably, President Donald Trump must formally inform Congress that the S-400s are non-operational, that Turkey no longer owns them, and that Ankara promises not to forge similar ties with Russia in the future to eliminate CAATSA sanctions. If Congress is not persuaded that these legal conditions have been fulfilled, the matter may move to a vote.
Some analysts, including an Israeli expert whom the EurAsian Times spoke with, seem to think that even ridding itself of the S-400 won’t solve Ankara’s troubles and certainly won’t secure its entry into the F-35 program.
File Image: S-400 Launchers: Via AFP
Turkey May Never Get The F-35?
Even if Turkey successfully sells its Russian S-400 systems to a third country, such as Qatar, several significant obstacles remain before it can realistically acquire F-35 fighter jets.
“Qatar is Ankara’s closest military ally in the Gulf. Yet even an S-400 transfer to Qatar would not restore Turkey to the F-35 program,” Shay Gal, Ex-Vice President of External Relations at Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), told the EurAsian Times.
“Washington has already built safeguards against cosmetic divestment. I was directly involved in that effort. Relocation (to Qatar) does not erase the exposure, the record or Turkey’s strategic incompatibility with the West’s most sensitive combat aircraft,” Gal added.
A section of experts believes that the S-400 issue is not solely about the physical hardware in Turkey, but also about an irreversible exposure risk, especially since Russian specialists were reportedly involved in setting up the S-400 in Turkey. There is considerable skepticism that these personnel may have benefited by gathering information about the F-35, at least until 2019, when Ankara was still part of the consortium.
This is why many US officials believe the compromise risk is permanent. Even if Turkey sells every S-400 battery tomorrow, the data that may already have been transferred to Russia cannot be undone, and neither can the prevailing mistrust.
Moreover, Ankara maintains a fairly decent relationship with Moscow, unlike the rest of NATO. There is an impression that verified divestment would remove the technical risk. It would not restore strategic trust.
“Advanced Western weapons supplied to Ankara strengthen Turkey, not the Alliance. They will not deter Russia, whose gas reaches Europe through TurkStream and whose state company is building and will operate Turkey’s first nuclear plant. Nor will they deter Iran, whose survival serves Turkish interests,” Gal added.
Notably, Qatar, which has emerged as a prospective buyer of the S-400, is a close ally of Turkey in West Asia as well as that of the US. Moving the S-400 to another US-aligned Gulf state is seen by many as merely shifting the problem rather than eliminating it. In fact, the problem may be compounded as Qatar hosts the Al Udeid military base, one of the most important US military facilities in the world.
“A Qatari transfer would not neutralize the S-400. It would transplant a Russian system into Turkey’s closest Gulf defense network and the country hosting Al Udeid. That is strategic laundering, not disposal.” Gal said. This could dissuade the US Congress from approving the arrangement and a potential F-35 sale to Ankara.
Furthermore, the Israeli analyst said even though the US President has been rather enthusiastic about resolving the conundrum, he does not have the authority to approve the sale of the F-35 on his own.
“The United States is not its president. Whatever Trump promised Erdogan, and whatever he signed, neither promise nor signature delivers an aircraft. Trump can promise. The state must deliver. That state is Congress, the Pentagon, the intelligence community, export law, and the security review system. What some deride as the “deep state” is the state itself: institutions built to stop one man’s commitment from becoming a strategic fact. Trump may weaken them, but he cannot abolish law, procedure, or time,” Gal said.
“Any Turkish return will face scrutiny, conditions and delay. The F-35 pipeline spans years: congressional review, contracting, production allocation, configuration, testing, training, infrastructure, and certification. Trump’s term will expire before Turkey receives a single F-35,” he added.
It is pertinent to note here that several US lawmakers have publicly opposed transferring the F-35 to Turkey based on mere relocation.
One of the major challenges plaguing Turkey’s S-400 disposal strategy is that it depends on Russia’s approval, which is entirely contingent on what Moscow could derive from it.
According to Gal, “Moscow will consent only if the transfer preserves Russian leverage, access or compensation.”
Having said that, a potential sale of F-35 to Turkey has been opposed by both Israel and Greece (another NATO ally), Turkey’s two major regional rivals.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposed the deal shortly after Trump expressed optimism about lifting sanctions. Netanyahu told CNN that he urged Trump not to sell the F-35 to Turkey, adding that doing so would “destroy the power balance in the Middle East.”
Tel Aviv believes that the sale of F-35 to Turkey would upset the “Qualitative Military Edge” promised by the US to Israel.
Meanwhile, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias voiced concern over a potential deal, saying, “Greece will not be pleased if Turkey acquires the F-35s, or if Turkey acquires the engines for next-generation aircraft.”
When asked whether Ankara’s acquisition of F-35 would threaten its rivals, Gal said, “Turkey will not leapfrog Greece, whose first aircraft are scheduled for 2028 and whose pilots will train in the United States. Nor will it overtake Israel, whose third squadron of 25 additional F-35Is will begin arriving in 2028 at a rate of three to five aircraft annually.”
Israel’s opposition adds significant political weight against the deal in Washington, especially among a significant number of pro-Israel lawmakers in Congress. Combined with Greek concerns and US lawmakers’ skepticism about Turkey’s reliability in operating the F-35, it may create a difficult environment for the Trump administration to sell the stealth fighter to Turkey, even if it sells its S-400s.
“The S-400 may leave Turkey. The strategic problem will not,” Gal concluded.
Ukrayna savaşı 5’inci yılında. Ne Rus ne de Ukrayna tarafı, bu savaşın nasıl biteceğini biliyor; ama sokaktaki gerçeklik şu: Halklar savaştan yorgun.
Dışişleri Bakanı Hakan Fidan ile Kiev’de kaldığımız süre boyunca Ukraynalılara, hem savaş hem de Devlet Başkanı Volodimir Zelenskiy hakkında ne düşündüklerini sordum. Elbette genel bir kanıya varmak imkânsız ama bu kadar kısa sürede bile farklı fikirleri dinlemek çarpıcıydı.
Bitmeyen savaş
Savaş başladıktan sonra Mauripol’den ayrılmak zorunda kalmış bir genç kızın sözleri her şeyin özeti:
Haberin Devamı
‘‘Ailem dışında her şeyimi kaybettim. Savaştan çok yorgunum, artık bitmesini istiyorum.’’
Bir genç erkek günlük yaşamdaki zorluğu anlatıyor:
‘‘Gece 12’de sokağa çıkma yasağı hâlâ devam ediyor. Balistik füzeler hâlâ fırlatılıyor, akşamları siren seslerini duyuyoruz. Alıştık ama normal şekilde uyuyamıyoruz.’’
Kim, nerede pes edecek?
Ukrayna’da, Rusya Devlet Başkanı Vladimir Putin’in ‘durmayacağı’ konusunda neredeyse herkes hem fikir. Kievliler bir noktada uzlaşılması gerektiğini düşünüyorlar ama kırmızı çizgileri ‘kimlikleri’. Bir üniversite genci şöyle diyor:
‘‘Nihai hedeflerinin Ukrayna’yı tamamen yok etmek olduğunu görüyoruz. Onlar, Ukraynalıları ayrı bir kimlik olarak kabul etmiyor. Savaştığımız şey kimliğimiz. Eğer geri çekilirsek var olamayacağız. Onlar çekilirse savaş biter ama yapmayacaklar.’’
Kiev taviz vermeli mi?
Peki Ukraynalılar savaşı bitirmek için taviz vermeye hazır mı? Bunun tek bir doğru cevabı yok, duygularsa karışık. Savaşta sonuna kadar gidilmesi gerektiğini düşünenler elbette var ama gerçekçi noktadan bakanlar da… İşte Kievli bir gencin sözleri:
‘‘Bu zor bir soru. Konu toprak bütünlüğümüz olunca bir santimetrekaremizi kaybetmek istemeyiz ama bir de yılardır devam eden gerçeklik var. Ekonomi iyi durumda değil, herkes stresli. Yanlış anlaşılmasın, ben ülkemi seviyorum, toprak kaybetmek istemiyorum ama yorgunuz. Yöneticilerin iyi bir tercih yapacağına inanıyorum.’’
Annesi Donetskli, sırtında Ukrayna bayrağı taşıyan bir gencin sözleri de benzer:
Haberin Devamı
‘‘Ben Donbas bölgesinin Ukrayna’ya ait olduğunu düşünüyorum ama belki bir nokta gelecek ve biz o mevcut çatışma bölgelerinin dondurulduğunu göreceğiz. Çünkü iki tarafın da durumu değiştirecek gücü yok.’’
Zelenskiy’e tepki ve Federov dalgası
Sokaklarda, Zelenskiy’nin yönetim tarzından memnun olmayan Kievlilere de rastlıyorsunuz. Özellikle Savunma Bakanı Mykhailo Federov’un görevden alınması tepkiyi artırdı.
Fedorov 1991 doğumlu genç bir siyasetçiydi. Ukrayna’nın dijitalleştirilmesini hızlandıran isimlerden biri olarak tanındı. Sadece 182 gün bakanlık yapan Federov, AB ile İHA teknolojisi anlaşmasını imzaladıktan bir gün sonra görevden alınınca protestocular sokağa çıktı.
Eyleme katılan gençlerden biri tepkisini şöyle anlatıyor:
“Bu savaşı yönetenler arasında iki görüş var. Sahadaki askerleri kullanmak isteyenler ve İHA’larla bu savaşı sürdürmek gerektiğine inanlar. Federov, ülkesini seven bir milliyetçi, İHA teknolojisi diyor. Bu yüzden onu geri istiyoruz.’’
Bir diğer genç, bu karardan rahatsızlığını Zelenskiy’i hedef alan sözlerle dile getiriyor:
Haberin Devamı
‘‘İşini yapmıyor. Etkili bakanları değiştiriyor.’’ Bir başka genç kararın kişisel olduğuna inanıyor: ‘‘Federov’un politikaları Zelenskiy’nin kişisel çıkarlarıyla çatıştı. Zelenskiy savaş sonrası popülaritesini korumaya çalışıyor.’’
Seçim talebi
Zelenskiy’nin görev süresi bitmiş olmasına rağmen seçime gitmemesi uzun süredir ülkedeki tartışma başlıklarından biri. Devlet Başkanı gibi, ‘savaş devam ederken sağlıklı bir seçim olamayacağını’ düşünenlere mukabil, bu tercihi ikbal mücadelesi olarak görenler de var. İşte bir başka gencin sözleri:
‘‘Zelenskiy ülkemiz için pek çok şey yapmaya çalışıyor ama diğer tarafta çok fazla para konusu var.’’ Bu iddialar gençlerin fazlasıyla dilinde. Bir diğeri ‘Yolsuzlukları görüyoruz, insanları değiştiriyorlar ama sistemi değiştirmiyor.’’ diyerek tepkisini dile getiriyor.
Kuşku yok ki, savaş dönemlerinde ülkeyi yönetmenin yükü, süre uzadıkça daha da ağırlaşıyor. Ama en büyük yükü yine halklar sırtlıyor.
