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How long can Iran continue the war?
Shabnam von Hein
5 hours ago
In the war with the US and Israel, Iran is largely on its own. The regime is relying primarily on its missile and drone systems and has no intention of surrendering.
https://p.dw.com/p/59s5E
Thousands attend a funeral in Qom, with the coffin covered in an Iranian flag and lifted by many hands
Iran's population mourns civilian casualties, as seen in this picture of a funeral in Qom supplied by Iran's ISNA news agencyImage: Mehdi Alavi/ISNA/AFP/Getty Images
Iran has prepared itself for a long war, unlike the United States, Ali Larijani, secretary-general of the Middle East nation's Supreme National Security Council, said on the third day of the US-Israel war against Iran.
Larijani reiterated what other officials of the Islamic Republic have been saying since the military conflict began: "We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost."
Since February 28, the US and Israel have been conducting a coordinated, massive military offensive against Iran, targeting in particular Iranian leaders as well as military and other government facilities.
Even though several high-ranking Iranian officials have been killed, the Islamic theocratic regime remains intact, so far.
And Tehran has responded by lobbing missiles and drones on targets in Israel and in neighboring Persian Gulf countries, including US bases across the region.
The United Arab Emirates says it alone has been targeted by hundreds of Iranian rockets and drones in recent days.
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Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the US Central Command, said that Iran had fired more than 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones by Wednesday, March 4. He accused Tehran of indiscriminately attacking civilians in the process.
"We don't know exactly how many ballistic missiles and drones Iran actually has," a weapons expert, who asked not to be named, told DW.
Logistics and production of missiles and drones
At the start of the war on Saturday, the Israeli military estimated that Iran had around 2,500 ballistic missiles.
But the stockpile is likely to have reduced significantly since then, not only due to Iran firing missiles on targets across the region but also because of US-Israeli strikes destroying and burying many bomb storage sites.
Satellite images currently circulating online purport to show attacks on missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad and northern Tabriz, with collapsed tunnel entrances to underground storage facilities that are said to have been destroyed in recent attacks.
"We are also seeing that mobile missile launchers are being pursued with great vigor," said the weapons expert. "What was very difficult five years ago is now possible thanks to technological advances. Still, the question remains as to how many of these systems have actually been destroyed."
It is not clear how many missiles were removed from these sites and dispersed across the country ahead of the war, and how many functional missile launchers Iran still has.
On March 4, the Israeli military warned that Iran retains substantial capacity to launch missiles against Israel, despite ongoing strikes targeting missile launch sites in the Islamic Republic.
Iran is also believed to have the ability to quickly ramp up the production of drones. According to leaked Russian documents, Tehran can produce around 5,000 drones per month.
The drones are launched from a simple scaffold that can be built in just a few hours.
The production of one of these drones, called Shahed, is said to cost Iran several thousand dollars. A US-made Patriot interceptor missile, on the other hand, costs up to about $3 million (€2.59 million) each.
According to an analysis by the New York Times based on satellite images and verified videos, Iran used its short-range missiles and drones over the weekend and on Monday to damage structures that are part of communications and radar systems at or near at least seven US military bases in the Middle East.
The US military's communications infrastructure is kept strictly secret, making it difficult to determine exactly which systems may have been affected. But the attacks on these sites suggest that Iran wanted to disrupt the US' communication and coordination capabilities.
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Consequences for the population and the region
"Iran will try to prolong the war and is playing for time," Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, told DW.
"The Iranian leadership has had time to plan and coordinate its actions. I think they are preparing for a long war," he added, pointing out that the overarching goal of the Iranian regime is resilience — the ability to persevere, to absorb the blows, and then continue to fight.
Meanwhile, the cost of the war is borne primarily by the general public in Iran, who are defenseless against the attacks.
Even though the US and Israel claim to be carrying out targeted strikes, high levels of collateral damage are almost inevitable in densely populated cities.
According to Iranian sources, a primary school in the southern city of Minab was hit on the first day of the conflict. On Tuesday, Iranian state media showed images of mass funerals for the 168 children, as well as their teachers, who reportedly died in the attack.
The United Nations described the incident as "absolutely shocking" and called for an investigation. Israel denied attacking the school in Minab, which is located about 40 kilometers from the Gulf of Oman. The US, which has two aircraft carrier strike groups deployed to the region, announced that it would investigate the incident.
The article was originally written in German.
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