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Foreign Affairs New Issue Out November/December 2026 The Limits of American Power U.S. Strategy and the Delusion of Force - William H. McRaven November/December 2026 Published on October 20, 2026

Foreign Affairs

New Issue Out  November/December 2026

The Limits of American Power

U.S. Strategy and the Delusion of Force


William H. McRaven

November/December 2026

Published on October 20, 2026



The war in Iran is far from the first time that U.S. policymakers have failed to appreciate the limits of American power. But the Trump administration’s use of military force against the Islamic Republic since February 28 offers a particularly glaring example of a mistake that has often characterized American strategy in recent decades. The war was launched without a clear rationale and with a constantly shifting set of objectives—from changing Tehran’s regime and squelching its nuclear ambitions to, more recently, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which wasn’t closed until the war started. The results, not surprisingly, have been bad both for U.S. interests and for the Middle East.


Still, to focus only on the blunders in Iran is to miss a deeper problem in U.S. foreign policy—one that preceded and will outlast Donald Trump’s presidency. Although the particular missteps in Iran may stem from the shortcomings of this president and the team around him, the overestimation of the potential of military force has been a growing feature of American strategy since at least the end of World War II. A tendency to wish away the limits of power accounted for some of the greatest mistakes of U.S. statecraft during the Cold War, with Vietnam the clearest and most consequential example. Yet despite an apparent commitment to internalizing the lessons of that overreach, this American delusion—our excessive faith in the capacity of military power to achieve victory and thereby fundamentally political ends—has gotten worse rather than better, especially in the past quarter century.


And unfortunately, there is good reason to worry that the delusion will deepen in the years ahead. Presidential power is becoming increasingly personalized as the constraints on it continue to erode. The politicization of the military (along with the diplomatic corps and intelligence communities) is making it less likely that policymakers will receive the best advice, including frank warnings about risks and costs. And the rise of artificial intelligence and new weapons technologies reinforces a sense of complete battlefield awareness and mastery, feeding superpower hubris. The risk of overreach has never been higher, at a time when the damage from overreach is becoming more difficult to repair.


WIN EVERY BATTLE

In April 1975, Colonel Harry Summers, a member of the U.S. delegation dealing with postwar issues in Vietnam, was meeting in Hanoi with a North Vietnamese counterpart, Colonel Tu. “You know, you never defeated us on the battlefield,” Summers observed. To which Tu replied, “That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.”



Summers went on to write a seminal book about the war, On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War. His key takeaway was simple: there are limits to American power that are neglected at immense cost. War is, and always has been, a contest of human will, shaped by heroism and cowardice, fear and elation, chance and uncertainty; no matter how superior a military force, it is not guaranteed strategic victory.


The book became required reading for many military officers, including me. I had joined the Naval ROTC unit at the University of Texas two years before the encounter between Summers and Tu. The draft had just ended, and the fall of Saigon was still to come, but discussion of Vietnam consumed our ranks. As I studied the American failure, I came to see that a great strength had become a fatal liability: our fundamental faith that we, the United States of America, had to win and thus would. We had won World War I, we had won World War II, and we had at least fought to a draw, holding off the North Koreans and Chinese, in Korea. And somehow, at all costs, we would win in Vietnam.


To believe you can win is important. It inspires troops and keeps the public engaged. But when the commitment to winning is not coupled with sound policy judgment, when the principles of war are disregarded in the false belief that technology or firepower can overcome the inherent frictions of combat, when tactical successes are viewed as a guaranteed path to a strategic win, when the cost in blood and treasure rises inexorably while any claim to righteousness collapses, it is essential to reassess. In Vietnam, the answer to mounting losses was simply “more”—more troops, more bombs, more money. To lose the fight was seen as anathema to all we stood for; we would keep fighting in spite of the increasingly evident limits to our power. When the end finally came with the rushed U.S. withdrawal from Saigon in 1975, many military and political leaders could still not understand how the United States had won nearly every skirmish, battle, and fight but lost the war.


The damage from overreach is becoming more difficult to repair.

The military I entered in 1977 was struggling in the aftermath of Vietnam. The “peace dividend” meant a dramatic drawdown in manpower and money. Readiness was at an all-time low across the services—army enlistment had fallen by 60,000 and the number of navy ships from around 650 to barely more than 500. Meanwhile, the transition to an all-volunteer military had proved challenging: drug abuse and racial tensions were high, morale among senior leaders and young troops alike was low, and new recruits lacked basic skills.


When President Ronald Reagan took office in 1981, he began the largest peacetime expansion of the U.S. military since the Korean War. Over the course of eight years, he increased defense spending by 35 percent. There was a slew of major procurements: the M-1 Abrams tank, the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, the Apache and Black Hawk helicopters, the F-15 and F-16 fighters, the B-1 bomber, the E-3 Sentry. The navy built back toward 600 ships, including 15 aircraft carriers, 100 attack submarines, and cruisers and destroyers equipped with the revolutionary Aegis Combat System. For troops, pay rose, recruiting goals were met, and standards were restored. Just as important, Congress passed the Goldwater-Nichols Act in 1986. It fundamentally changed the military by strengthening the role of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, establishing the regional combatant commanders as the warfighters, ensuring joint force integration, improving joint planning and procurement, and leading to the establishment of the U.S. Special Operations Command. By 1990, the military I entered in the 1970s had been transformed. Our troops were well trained, well equipped, highly motivated, and, most important, well led.


In July 1990, I left San Diego on a routine six-month deployment to the western Pacific. I was a SEAL task unit commander assigned to Amphibious Squadron Five and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit. Little did I know that this reinvigorated military and our civilian leaders were about to be tested, raising the question of whether the United States had learned anything from Vietnam and the other failed missions of the recent past.


IS IT WORTH IT?

On August 2, 1990, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein ordered the Iraqi army into Kuwait. Within hours of the invasion, the National Security Council convened and options for U.S. action were presented to the president. “This is the first test of the postwar system—as the bipolar world is relaxed, it permits this,” Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger emphasized. “If [Saddam] succeeds, others may try the same.”


Fortunately, American leadership had never been stronger or more experienced—and in wartime especially, leadership matters. President George H. W. Bush was a young navy pilot when he was shot down near Iwo Jima and eventually rescued by an American submarine. Bush understood war. Later in life, he had served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, de facto ambassador to China, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and vice president. No president in American history had come into office with more national security experience. Nevertheless, Bush surrounded himself with some of the most remarkable diplomats, military officers, intelligence professionals, and strategic thinkers of their time: Brent Scowcroft, the national security adviser; Secretary of State James Baker; Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney; Colin Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and many more.


U.S. Central Command, which would spearhead the military effort against Saddam, was led by General Norman Schwarzkopf. Schwarzkopf was a Vietnam veteran who had been awarded three Silver Stars for heroism and two Purple Hearts for combat injuries. Upon his return from Vietnam, Schwarzkopf had reflected: “Nobody is more antiwar than an intelligent person who’s been to war. . . . And when they get ready to send me again, I’m going to have to stop and ask myself, ‘Is it worth it?’ That’s a very dangerous place for the nation to be when your own army is going to stop and question.”


Grappling honestly with that question—Is it worth it?—is the imperative of good leadership. Bush carefully weighed the costs and risks associated with confronting Saddam and decided the war was worth it. Together, the United States’ political and military leaders developed a strategy with clear goals and objectives and built both popular and international support for the operations to come. It would prove to be the finest application of political and military power in recent American history—and its success is thus worth lingering on.


The success of the Gulf War rested on several fundamental principles that were at the heart of American strategy. First, that the United States should begin by taking the moral high ground. The high ground implies that you hold a dominant position when facing an enemy. The moral high ground shows that the fight is worth it. With it, leaders can inspire troops, galvanize publics, and rally allies.



A U.S. military aircraft arriving at a base in Shukvani, Afghanistan, March 2012

Scott Olson / Pool / Reuters


Immediately after Saddam’s invasion, Bush ordered the deployment of military forces into the region and worked with Saudi Arabia to establish a footprint in the kingdom in the event military action was necessary. Bush was still hoping to avoid a conflict, but he saw a similarity “between the Persian Gulf and the situation in the Rhineland in the 1930s, when Hitler simply defied the Treaty of Versailles and marched in.” Yet he knew that he had to convince the international community and the American people that any actions he might take would be moral, legitimate, and in the interests of the United States and its allies.


Bush and his team engaged in a full-court diplomatic effort to build support from Arab states in the region, from European allies, and from Moscow and Beijing. Although skeptical of the United Nations, Bush nonetheless sought a variety of UN resolutions that condemned Iraq’s invasion, imposed sweeping economic sanctions, and authorized the use of force if necessary. Simultaneously, he built the case with the American people, a large majority of whom ultimately approved of his handling of the crisis. And although Bush believed he had the authority as commander in chief to commit military forces without congressional approval, he sought and received Capitol Hill’s support.


Second, Bush and his administration recognized the value of building an international coalition, even if the United States had the firepower to go it alone in strictly military terms. This was partly about legitimacy, partly about the chance to send a message. Saddam’s invasion presented an opportunity to shape what some in the administration thought of as a “new world order,” one in which aggression would be met with collective action; major powers would come together despite their ideological differences; and the United Nations and international law would play a critical role rather than be ignored. Bush leveraged the strong personal relationships he had developed over his long career in public service, gaining the support of everyone from Germany’s Chancellor Helmut Kohl and France’s President François Mitterrand, to Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd and Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak, to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. As secretary of state, Baker also embarked on a campaign of shuttle diplomacy that took him across the globe, adding to the coalition.


In the end, the United States did not simply get the support of the international community. Much of the costs of the conflict were borne by others. The allied force ultimately assembled—750,000 troops from 36 countries, including 540,000 Americans—was the largest since World War II. It included, critically, an Arab coalition with forces from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Syria, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Bahrain. The coalition was challenging to manage; British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once quipped that “there is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.” But Bush understood that international support brought operational legitimacy and regional stability. It sent a message to Saddam and to the world.


Third, Bush and his advisers were intent on establishing clear goals and objectives, with political and military dimensions aligned. Politically, the purpose was to uphold international law and restore peace in the region. The military objectives supported those political objectives. The coalition would drive Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. But in doing so, it would attempt to minimize friendly casualties, maintain the alliance, and limit the duration of the war. U.S. leaders were clear from the beginning: there would be no push to Baghdad or protracted engagement with the Iraqi army.


To defeat the enemy, you must stand on the ground he holds dear and own it.


Yet even with these limited objectives, neither civilian nor military leaders were under the illusion that success would be easy or cost-free. Driving out a determined enemy that owns the terrain requires overwhelming firepower and a willingness to commit to ground operations. As Carl von Clausewitz stressed in On War, the defense is stronger than the offense, since the defense has only to preserve and protect, while the offense must impose its will on the enemy. He argues that the only way to overcome the inherent strength of the defense is through overwhelming firepower. The Iraqis were prepared to defend the ground they had taken in Kuwait; they owned the terrain, the geography was in their favor, and they had an experienced fighting force after eight years in combat against the Iranians. But Cheney, Powell, and Schwarzkopf understood the principles of war. They had a clearly defined objective. They massed U.S. firepower in the most important areas, accepted risk in less important ones, and were prepared to maneuver against the enemy. And they were committed to leaving when the objectives were reached, not allowing the war to go on too long.


To accomplish these goals meant putting troops on the ground—a lot of troops. U.S. military and civilian leaders understood that defeating the Iraqis would take more than just airpower. Early on, Cheney observed, “The history of air campaigns suggests they are not terribly successful.” Powell agreed: “To further deter Iraqi action with Saudi Arabia would require U.S. forces on the ground. . . . It would mean a major confrontation. Most U.S. forces would be committed to sustain not just for one or two days.”


If I have learned one important lesson in over four decades of military service, it’s that to defeat the enemy, you must stand on the ground he holds dear and own it. It is why Alexander invaded Persia, William the Conqueror crossed the channel to England, Genghis Khan rode into China, Sherman marched to Atlanta, the Allies landed at Normandy, and the United States rolled into Kuwait. (It is why today the Israelis are in Gaza and Lebanon and why the Russians will never be victorious until they hold Kyiv.) But as Cheney cautioned, “We should start this only if we are prepared to see it through. . . . The problem is the American people might have a short tolerance for war.”


Operation Desert Storm began with air attacks at 2:38 AM Baghdad time on January 17, 1991. After 43 days of air operations and 100 hours of ground operations, Washington’s political and military objectives had been achieved. The Iraqi army was ousted from Kuwait, and most American forces were soon on their way home.


“We’re doing something decent and we’re doing something good,” Bush wrote in his diary. “Vietnam will soon be behind us.”


LESSONS UNLEARNED

Desert Storm was a reset, but not in the way it should have been. It presented an opportunity to internalize lessons about how to use force effectively and about what military power could and could not achieve. Instead, it spurred a wave of triumphalism. When I returned from Desert Storm, where I’d led a special operations task force, the euphoria was palpable: we were winners again. The victory proved intoxicating, drawing us back into the false belief that our power could do almost anything to shape the world to our liking.


Adding to this euphoria was the technology that had been on display against Iraq. Precision-guided munitions could put a 500-pound bomb on a moving target from 20,000 feet in the air. Tomahawk cruise missiles could be launched from ships and submarines hundreds of miles away. A GPS satellite could guide an infantry battalion across a flat desert at night and get it to exactly the right destination, and the joint surveillance target attack radar system could see the Iraqi army as it maneuvered. Digital command and control systems could provide computerized air-tasking orders, secure satellite communications, and digital planning tools. No military in history had ever commanded the battlespace as precisely as we did during Desert Storm. It made sense to build on this success to spur a revolution in military affairs that would improve the way the United States fought. But the experience also fueled a widespread belief that technology could overcome the inherent frictions, costs, and risk of war.



A U.S. soldier in Baghdad, May 2003

Jamal Saidi / Reuters



In the 1990s, U.S. military missions, in line with the confidence that followed Desert Storm and the hopes of the post–Cold War world, were focused on supporting norms and containing humanitarian harms—some successful (Bosnia and Kosovo), some less so (Somalia). But it was after 9/11 that the failure to learn the right lessons from the Gulf War became especially clear, with a persistent misunderstanding of the limits of American power and what the military could and couldn’t achieve. The war in Afghanistan began with the right intentions but devolved into a protracted fight with shifting goals, misaligned military and political objectives, and a determined Taliban force fighting on its home ground. Even after the special operations mission that killed the al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, the goals and objectives in Afghanistan kept shifting. As always, the strength of the military was our troops: they were courageous, disciplined, technologically savvy. We made mistakes, but there was no lack of fighting spirit or tactical successes. Even public support remained strong throughout most of the war. But we faltered by assuming that the quick victory could extend to the complex task of fighting an insurgency, conducting counterterrorism operations, and building a nation. Lest I appear too righteous in my critique of American strategy, make no mistake: as a combat leader in Afghanistan, I fell into the same trap of believing that more troops, more weapons, and more money could solve some of the most intractable problems. They could not.


The Iraq war, based on a far shakier case at the outset, also degenerated into a counterinsurgency and counterterrorism mission with insufficient forces, a small coalition, and an evolving timeline. Once again, our troops were everything the American people could have hoped for, but our leaders repeatedly disregarded the fundamental principles of war. Our claim to the moral high ground was based on flawed intelligence, our international support was limited, and our goals shifted from removing Saddam to trying to build a Western-style democracy. We may have entered Iraq and Afghanistan with noble intentions, and perhaps in the long term the seeds of freedom we tried to plant will take root. But so far, minimal gains have come at immense cost to our military and our troops, our home front, and our international legitimacy.


VIRTUALLY INVINCIBLE

Yet even these recent experiences—which several key members of the Trump administration witnessed firsthand in their own military service—did little to instill caution when it came to Iran earlier this year. To be clear, the Iranian regime is despicable. It is responsible for the death of hundreds of American troops. It threatens its neighbors, uses proxies to attack our allies, and has killed tens of thousands of its own people.


Given the fall of the Assad government in Syria, the destruction of Hamas’s power in Gaza, the crippling of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a weakened supreme leader in Iran itself, it is easy to appreciate the allure of trying to change the Iranian regime. What’s more, coming off the dramatic capture of President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, where the U.S. military exercised remarkable speed, lethality, and courage to overcome a very sophisticated defense, it was all too easy for U.S. policymakers to assume once again that the power of our technology and the courage and experience of our soldiers made us virtually invincible. But there is a reason no U.S. president has attempted to change the regime in Iran since 1979, and it has little to do with determination or political will. The challenges of legitimacy, coalition building, and geography; the will of the enemy; and the reality that it would be necessary to put American boots on the ground to achieve such an ambitious end all argued against it.


From the start of the Iran war, there was no attempt to build international legitimacy. It began on February 28 with a U.S.-Israeli strike. To make matters worse, an early airstrike went awry and hit an Iranian elementary school, resulting in the deaths of 120 students. Mistakes happen in war, but not acknowledging our error added to the sense of illegitimacy and vindictiveness, losing whatever moral high ground we might have had. The Trump administration failed to notify any U.S. allies of the impending strike, most notably neighboring Arab states, which resulted in a lack of regional trust from the outset. Later, when the president sought allied support to open the Strait of Hormuz, he was met with an international cold shoulder. This refusal came as no surprise: Trump had been notoriously caustic with European leaders.


Never underestimate the enemy’s will to fight.

There was never a clear understanding of the goals. The administration at first said it wanted regime change. But later Trump told reporters that he never cared about regime change. The administration claimed the urgency of preempting an imminent Iranian nuclear weapon. But when pressed, Trump later dismissed such concerns as inconsequential, since there was little left in Iran but “nuclear dust.” After Iran closed the strait, and reopening it to shipping became the primary focus of both military strategy and diplomacy, Trump told the world that it mattered little since the United States didn’t need the oil. The objectives seemed to change by the day. I have no doubt that American military planners understood the limits of airpower when it came to achieving U.S. aims in Iran; this should have been a signal to the White House that unless the military planned to invade Iran, victory was unlikely.


Geography was always going to be a limiting factor. In my almost 40 years of military service, much of that time in the Middle East, no general or admiral I ever met talked about Iran without talking about the Strait of Hormuz. It was the Iranians’ weapon of mass destruction, their bulwark against invasion, their ace in the hole no matter the game. Additionally, the Iranian leadership was in the position of the defenders: they only had to preserve and protect themselves to win. And protect they have. At this point, it is highly unlikely the U.S. military will ever stand on the ground they hold dear and call it our own.


The U.S. war was also limited by the will of the enemy. From 1980 to 1988, Iran and Iraq fought a vicious war claiming the lives of hundreds of thousands of Iranians. It should have been clear from the beginning of this war that the Iranians would fight and fight hard. The zealots in Iran control the narrative, and they are battling for their survival.


THE LIMITS OF POWER

Such a grave failure to recognize and appreciate the limits of power is not a new phenomenon in American history, or in military history more broadly. With every revolution in military technology, from mounted cavalry to motorized units, from the single-shot musket to the Gatling gun, from propeller-driven aircraft to jets, leaders desperately want to believe that they can wish away the basic nature of war. As our ability to project power around the globe becomes more formidable, we desperately want to believe that geography is no longer important. As new media allows us to see national outrage among an adversary’s population, we desperately want to believe that we can spur change with little risk or commitment. And as AI speeds up tactical decision-making, we desperately want to believe that the lessons of military experience can be disregarded. These beliefs are illusions.


More concerning, however, is that there are several structural trends in the United States that suggest the problem will get worse rather than better, no matter how vivid the lessons of the Iran war may seem at the moment. The first is the trend toward more personalistic presidential leadership, in which loyalty to the leader becomes more important than loyalty to institutions. When institutions designed to provide a president with the best military, diplomatic, economic, or intelligence advice are led by loyalists, there is a risk that advice will be shaded, inadvertently or intentionally, to reflect the president’s desires. This is a recipe for disaster. A leader needs the unvarnished truth, the best advice possible, regardless of his or her personal position on the issue. The growing concentration of power in the executive branch has unfolded over several administrations, and despite occasional noise from Congress, there is little sign this will change. Here, too, Trump may be a particularly flagrant example, but he’s unlikely to be the last president susceptible to such temptations and operating with few constraints.


The dangers of personalistic presidential leadership are severely exacerbated by more politicized leadership in the military. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s ongoing purge of military leadership will undermine the civil-military dynamic for years to come. Trump and Hegseth have forced out senior officers across nearly every service, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the chief of naval operations, and the army chief of staff. Hegseth has intervened to block career advancement in unprecedented ways, personally removing dozens of officers from promotion lists, often with no explanation (although a disproportionate number seem to have worked for leaders who were viewed as obstacles to Trump’s domestic political goals). While remaining military leaders will largely stay committed to serving honorably and providing their best advice to civilian leaders in the Pentagon and the White House, this purge is bound to have a chilling effect on the willingness and ability of senior officers to give frank counsel, especially when it comes to the costs and limits of what force can achieve.


And finally, the rapid introduction of new technologies, from AI and unmanned vehicles to robotics, cyber- and space-based systems, will once again make it all too easy to wish away the fundamentals of war. Technology will always be an important factor in how wars are fought, and every military must seek greater lethality, survivability, and situational awareness. But although these capabilities are necessary, they are not sufficient to overcome the basic principles of war. Leaders must understand technology for what it is—an enabler. It can improve the application of military power, but it cannot compensate for misguided policies that draw us into conflict in the first place.


ALL THE POWER IN THE WORLD

Today’s U.S. military is the finest, most professional armed force in the history of the world—yes, the history of the world. But that doesn’t mean we can disregard the limits of our power.


We will be limited by moral uncertainty. If the reasons for a conflict are dubious or worse, it will prove challenging to build a coalition, motivate troops, maintain civilian support, and undermine the will of the enemy. Such failures explain why the Greeks defeated the Persians at Salamis, the English defeated the Spanish at Gravelines, George Washington defeated the British, the Russians defeated the Germans at Stalingrad, the Vietnamese defeated the French and the Americans, and the Ukrainians are defeating the Russians today. Although the moral high ground does not guarantee military victory, it is a foundation on which success rests.


We will be limited by geography. No matter the advances in technology, geography will always be a critical factor in determining the outcome of any engagement. Every military leader knows that the terrain dictates how the enemy will fight, where he will position his forces, how he will supply his troops. It is the oceans and the rivers that provide natural barriers to an advancing force, and the terrain and the waterways that will limit the ability of the attacking force to maneuver, hold ground, resupply, and project power. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb Strait present the same challenges as the English Channel, the Rhine, or the Volga.


We will be limited by the will of the enemy. There is a “sleeping giant” in every population that will rise from its slumber and fight hard, driven by a sense of righteousness, a desire for survival, or both. Invaders, aggressors, and first strikers all elicit a visceral response from the population they seek to mollify. Never underestimate the enemy’s will to fight—a mistake we have made again and again.


We will be limited by our hesitancy to put troops on the ground. No American wants to lose our young men and women on a foreign battlefield, but sometimes it is necessary to achieve the greater good. During World War I, over two million young doughboys deployed to Europe. During World War II, over five million GIs fought the Nazis and island-hopped to Japan. In both cases, mankind was better for their sacrifice. Of course, if there is any doubt about whether we own the moral high ground, leaders will be hesitant to fully commit. In that hesitation comes defeat.



On the flight deck of the USS George Washington in the Arabian Sea, September 2026

Ed Ou / Reuters


We will be limited by time. This is not a uniquely American limitation, but we seem to suffer from it more than most countries. It has been said that the Russians will eat grass before they capitulate. The United States’ reputation is that sooner rather than later, we will tire of the fight and leave. Much of this reputation stems from the reality that our democracy demands public support to sustain a long engagement. Even with a compelling reason to send our young men and women into battle, the cost in blood and treasure can soon outweigh our collective sense of the necessity of the fight.


Finally, we will be limited by the quality of our leadership, political and military. Without experienced leaders—leaders who understand the need to establish legitimacy, to build coalitions, to have clear and attainable goals, to commit to the task, to limit the duration of the fight to only what is necessary—all the power in the world will be irrelevant.


William H. MCRaven served in the U.S. Navy from 1977 to 2014, including as Commander of United States Special Operations Command from 2011 to 2014. He was Chancellor of the University of Texas from 2015 to 2018.


More by William H. McRaven 

Topics & Regions: United States Diplomacy Security Defense & Military Strategy & Conflict U.S. Foreign Policy Vietnam War War in Iran Iraq War



Middle East Eye - Exclusive: Full text of the Mecca defence pact signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan - -20 October 2026

 

Exclusive: Full text of the Mecca defence pact signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan

The agreement commits the three countries to mutual defence, military assistance, intelligence sharing and defence industry cooperation, barring withdrawal for the first 10 years
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar and Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud leave after a committee meeting of the Mecca defence pact in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 5 October 2026 (Turkish Foreign Ministry/handout via Reuters)

Ragip Soylu

The Turkish government submitted the text of the Mecca Defence Pact to the Turkish parliament on Tuesday.

The pact, signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in August, establishes a new international defence alliance that commits the signatories to one another’s defence, similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The text of the agreement, obtained exclusively by Middle East Eye, does not identify any specific country or region as a threat, but emphasises that all participating countries will take the necessary measures to support one another in the event of an armed attack against their independence, sovereignty or territorial integrity.

“If the territorial integrity, sovereignty, or internationally recognised borders of any of the ‘Parties’ are threatened or endangered, the ‘Parties’ shall use all necessary means to eliminate such threat(s) or danger(s),” the treaty’s first article states.

Article 2 states that “an externally originating armed attack against any of the ‘Parties’ shall be considered an attack against all the ‘Parties’.”

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“If one of the ‘Parties’ is subjected to an armed attack or military aggression by another country or group of countries, the ‘Parties’ shall immediately assist the attacked ‘Party’, making full use of all means of mutual assistance that they can provide to one another.”

The article adds that the parties shall determine the scope and nature of the support to be provided following an objective assessment of the assistance required, and shall cooperate within the limits of their available resources, “including military means and capabilities”.

The agreement also provides for cooperation in developing defence industries, training armed forces and supplying one another with equipment, fuel and other defence material. It also establishes a framework for intelligence sharing.

The agreement, which consists of 16 articles, has no expiration date.

It allows signatories to withdraw only after 10 years have elapsed from its entry into force, provided they give the other parties written notice of their intention to withdraw at least three months in advance.

Below is an unofficial translation of the full text of the pact: 

The Government of the Republic of Turkiye, the Government of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, and the Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (hereinafter referred to as a “Party”, the “Parties”, or the “Core Parties”),

Taking into consideration mutual respect for sovereignty, the principles of the Charter of the United Nations, international law, and the relevant principles of domestic law; and agreeing to bring the existing mechanisms of cooperation, coordination, and integration relating to the defence partnership among the “Parties” into a joint defence agreement,

Reaffirming their willingness to further develop relations among the “Parties”, in accordance with their common interests, on the basis of cooperation, coordination, and integration encompassing the interoperability, readiness, and effectiveness of their armed forces, thereby strengthening the existing bonds of friendship and brotherhood among the “Parties” and their peoples,

Reaffirming the importance of the principles of non-interference in one another’s internal affairs, sovereign equality, territorial integrity, and the inviolability of internationally recognised borders, and declaring that implementing the necessary measures of mutual support is essential in the event of an armed attack against their independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity,

Stating the importance of joint efforts and coordination, in accordance with international law and the Charter of the United Nations, to ensure global and regional peace, stability, and security,

Expressing their desire to deepen existing cooperation among the competent authorities of the “Parties” in combating terrorism,

Emphasising the importance of strengthening existing cooperation among the “Parties” in regional and international organisations in order to adopt a common position on international matters,

Noting the need to further develop defence and defence-industry cooperation among the “Parties”,

Have agreed as follows:

Article 1

The “Parties” shall cooperate to ensure and safeguard one another’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the inviolability of their internationally recognised borders. If the territorial integrity, sovereignty, or internationally recognised borders of any of the “Parties” are threatened or endangered, the “Parties” shall use all necessary means to eliminate such threat(s) or danger(s).

Article 2

An externally originating armed attack against any of the “Parties” shall be considered an attack against all the “Parties.” If one of the “Parties” is subjected to an armed attack or military aggression by another country or group of countries, the “Parties” shall immediately assist the attacked “Party,” making full use of all means of mutual assistance that they can provide to one another. For this purpose, to enable the exercise of the right of self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, the “Parties” shall determine the scope and nature of the support to be provided following an objective assessment of the assistance required, and shall cooperate within the limits of their available resources, including military means and capabilities.

Article 3

Pursuant to Article 2 of this Agreement, the “Parties” shall cooperate closely in the fields of defence, defence industry, and security; develop relations among their Armed Forces; and carry out agreed activities aimed at strengthening cooperation in defence.

Article 4

The “Parties” shall hold regular consultations on international security matters. They shall continuously and effectively assist one another and cooperate in developing individual and joint measures based on common assessments, in order to protect their vital interests and national security and eliminate threats and dangers to their national security.

Article 5

The “Parties” shall strengthen existing cooperation and joint efforts, including at the operational level, in combating terrorism in all its forms and manifestations that adversely affect regional and international stability and security.

Article 6

In wartime and peacetime, the “Parties” shall encourage reciprocal personnel exchanges among defence institutions, joint training programmes and exercises, and deployments and activities aimed at increasing the interoperability of the “Parties’” armed forces, in order to develop their defence capabilities.

Article 7

To strengthen their defence capabilities, the “Parties” shall, on the basis of mutual agreement, support technology sharing among defence-industry institutions, joint technology development, joint production, and cooperation among defence-industry organisations in the following areas:
a) Encouraging joint production in the field of defence;
b) Implementing defence innovation through joint research and development projects in technologies requiring specialised expertise;
c) Training personnel and supporting the military industry within the territories of the “Parties” through experts from any “Party”;
d) Sharing expertise and lessons learned in the fields of defence industry, defence research and development, and innovation;
e) Other areas of cooperation mutually agreed upon by the “Parties”.


Article 8
1. The “Core Parties” shall establish a “Strategic Political and Defence Committee”, comprising the Foreign Ministers, Defence Ministers, and Chiefs of General Staff of the “Parties” to provide strategic direction for joint defence, develop defence and security cooperation among the “Parties” and address obstacles that may arise during the implementation of this Agreement. The Committee shall meet twice a year, with hosting rotating among the “Parties”. The leaders of the “Parties” may meet once a year if deemed necessary.

2. The “Strategic Political and Defence Committee” may establish subcommittees if it considers this necessary.

3. Agreements or protocols shall, where necessary, be negotiated among the “Parties” for the implementation of the areas of cooperation envisaged in this Agreement.

4. The “Strategic Political and Defence Committee” shall be authorised, by consensus of the “Core Parties”, to determine and approve the procedures and principles governing the accession of other “Parties” to this Agreement.

5. A Secretariat headquartered in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia shall be established to serve the “Strategic Political and Defence Committee”. The Secretariat shall conclude a headquarters agreement with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The procedures and principles governing the Secretariat’s functioning, organisational structure, and establishment shall subsequently be determined by consensus of the “Core Parties”.

6. The Secretariat shall be headed by a Secretary-General appointed for a three-year term on a rotational basis among the “Core Parties”. The first Secretary-General shall be a citizen of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

7. The provisions of this Article shall not prejudice the work of existing military cooperation committees among the “Parties”.

Article 9
To deepen cooperation in intelligence and provide the necessary coordination in this regard, the “Parties” shall share intelligence through mutually agreed secure channels, while observing information security, data protection and confidentiality.

Article 10
Subject to the availability and compatibility of logistical support services, the “Parties” shall provide one another with logistical support in peacetime, wartime, and other emergencies, including weapons, ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and other equipment.

Article 11

Without prejudice to international law and the relevant domestic laws of the “Parties”, the “Parties” shall accept this Agreement as the legal basis for implementing its provisions and shall propose additional legal measures where necessary.

Article 12

This Agreement shall not prejudice the rights and obligations of the “Parties” arising from international agreements they have previously concluded.

Article 13

1. The “Parties” shall respect the confidentiality of classified information and documents obtained under this Agreement and shall respect national legislation.

2. Classified information and documents shall not be shared with any state, company, or person outside the “Parties”.

3. Access to classified information and documents shall be provided on a “need-to-know” basis and only to persons holding the appropriate level of security clearance.

Article 14
Any dispute arising from the interpretation or implementation of this Agreement shall be settled amicably through consultations and discussions among the “Parties”.

Article 15

This Agreement may be amended through consultations and unanimous agreement among the “Core Parties”.

Article 16

1. This Agreement shall be ratified in accordance with the procedures applicable to each “Party” and shall enter into force on the date on which the final instrument of ratification is deposited with the Secretariat of the “Strategic Political and Defence Committee”.

2. This Agreement shall remain in force indefinitely.

3. Any “Party” may withdraw from this Agreement after 10 years have elapsed from its entry into force, by giving the other “Parties” written notification of its intention to withdraw through diplomatic channels at least three months in advance.

4. Termination of this Agreement or withdrawal from it shall not affect any ongoing activities or projects agreed upon by the “Parties” before the date of termination or withdrawal.

5. The responsibilities of the “Parties” concerning the protection of classified information and documents and the prevention of their disclosure shall continue after termination of this Agreement or withdrawal from it.

This Agreement has been signed in three original copies in the Turkish, Arabic, and English languages, each text being equally authentic. In the event of a difference in interpretation between the texts, the English text shall prevail.

This Agreement was signed in Mecca on Friday, August 7, 2026 (24/2/1448 AH).

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European Council 20/10/2026 21:56 - Joint statement by the President of the European Council António Costa and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen

 


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CARNEGIE _Strategic Europe Containing Escalation in the Black Sea - By Dimitar Bechev Published on Oct 20, 2026

 Commentary

Containing Escalation in the Black Sea

Russia is testing the waters of NATO’s mutual defense clause. What do strikes in Romanian territorial waters mean for the alliance’s posture toward Moscow?

Published on Oct 20, 2026

Russia has crossed another red line, and NATO and the EU have to figure out how to respond.

On October 14, 2026, Yara J, a Comoros-flagged tanker, came under drone attack near the port town of Sulina on Romania’s Black Sea coast. This was in the country’s territorial waters, not the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where previous attacks had happened.

The incident is anything but a one-off. In the same month, a total of seven ships have been hit by both aerial and submarine devices along the same stretch of EU and NATO shoreline. Twenty-seven crew are either confirmed dead or missing at sea.

This is part of Moscow’s campaign to stifle Ukraine by disrupting its maritime trade. But it also shows that the Black Sea faces a double whammy of horizontal and vertical escalation. Russian strikes are now spilling over into Romanian and Bulgarian jurisdictions—a horizontal escalation. At the same time, intensified hybrid operations such as acts of sabotage up the ante on land—a vertical escalation. NATO and the EU are scrambling to find the right response. Directly or by proxy, Russia is de facto prosecuting its war on the union’s and the alliance’s territories, both at sea and on land.

Beyond calling out Russia, the EU is grappling with the question of how to deter hybrid attacks that fall under NATO’s Article 5 collective defense threshold. Several hurdles are shortchanging a more resolute response. Security services still struggle to effectively cooperate across borders and the EU’s division of labor with NATO, along with a reluctance to use offensive responses, remain challenging.

With Ukraine’s severely diminished access to early warning intelligence following U.S. restrictions, its interceptor stocks running low, and its Starlink satellite access reportedly being throttled at the behest of the Trump administration, Russia is trying to press its advantage as winter arrives.

This shift in favor is being felt in the Black Sea, too. Ports like Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi, which handle 95 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports, are under constant threat. Using neighboring Romania as a gateway is no solution either. Grain-carrying ships coming out of Galați, a port city on the Danube, have also been struck. Despite calls for a deal to restore freedom of navigation, notably from Turkey, it appears that Moscow will press ahead. And now it is trespassing into Romania’s sovereign domain, which is in theory covered by NATO’s collective deterrent. Officials in Bucharest have reported at least six incursions of Russian drones, two of which were shot down by an F-16 fighter on October 17. That hints at Russia’s readiness to take risk.

This can all be seen as part of the intensified hybrid warfare Russia has been waging against Europe. Bulgaria is a case in point: In August and September, there were explosions at weapons depots. On the night of October 9–10, eleven antennas at a classified Starlink facility near Sofia were set on fire. Arrest warrants have been issued for two German nationals suspected of carrying out the arson. The incident mirrors an earlier attack at a Starlink ground station in Poland, where Russian involvement has been speculated.

In Brussels, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev is ironically one of the loudest voices in favor of reestablishing economic ties with Moscow and talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Bulgaria has also pulled out of the so-called coalition of the willing backing Ukraine, a decision the government in Sofia presented as serving the cause of peace. The caretaker President Iliana Iotova shares Radev’s views and is hoping to garner the Russophile vote in the presidential election scheduled for October 25.

Yet, their pro-Russian positions have not shielded the country from these attacks, with both figures reluctant to call Moscow out. Nevertheless, behind the scenes, Radev appears to be pleading for help to NATO and the United States. The moral of the story is that being friend or foe makes little difference to the Russians. They will look for opportunities and soft targets to strike at Ukraine and its Western supporters.

Romania, a Russia skeptic, and Bulgaria, a dove, have been following the same course in responding to the threat. They have pleaded for expanding NATO’s presence in the Black Sea. The alliance’s decisionmaking body, the North Atlantic Council, is set to meet at Bucharest and Sofia’s request—though neither country has invoked Article 4, the trigger for a formal consultation process on whether the countries’ territorial integrity is at stake. The European Council condemned the attacks on civilian shipping and called for the restoration of navigation. And the Bulgarian minister of defense is now saying that the country will join NATO’s anti-drone initiative, too, having previously said it wouldn’t.

Obviously, it is for the alliance to deal with the escalation at sea, for two reasons: Article 5 is being tested, and Romania and Bulgaria are pushing to set up a regional command with Turkey, a prominent NATO ally but not a member of the EU. The Turkish-Romanian-Bulgarian mine clearance naval mission could have its mandate broadened to monitor the territorial waters of all three countries and enforce freedom of navigation. NATO might also ramp up air policing in the Black Sea to convey a clear signal to Russia. Ankara can play a key diplomatic role as well, owing to its ties to Moscow.

A show of strength will not necessarily solve the problem. In all likelihood, it will contain the strikes deeper into the Romanian and Bulgarian EEZs. Preventing escalation in the Black Sea would be no mean feat. But at the end of the day, it is for Ukraine and its Western allies to find a counter to the Russian drone challenge and, hopefully, restore commercial shipping out of Odesa and other ports.

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About the Author

Dimitar Bechev

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Dimitar Bechev is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, where he focuses on EU enlargement, the Western Balkans, and Eastern Europe.