ANKARA, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Turkey's parliament is set on Wednesday to ratify a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan that includes a collective defence clause, committing NATO's second-largest army to Riyadh's defence as it faces attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis.
Ratification gives Ankara a formal mutual defence obligation toward Saudi Arabia, but it does not on its own send Turkish forces there. Deploying military personnel would require a separate mandate from parliament.
Make sense of global markets with the Trading Day newsletter. Sign up here.
Turkey submitted the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement — signed by the three countries in August — to parliament for ratification last month. Under the pact, whose key clause mirrors NATO's Article 5 under which an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all, the parties plan to boost defence industry cooperation and military coordination, while creating deterrence against threats.
The pact was signed before the Houthis launched attacks against Saudi Arabia, and Wednesday's vote comes after a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran and Washington remain far from a deal to end their war, with Houthis stepping up attacks on Riyadh.
Officials had told Reuters last month that Turkey's contribution to Saudi Arabia was expected to be limited to military equipment, intelligence sharing, and weapons systems.
A lawmaker from Turkey's ruling party told Reuters earlier that Turkey would also submit to parliament a mandate allowing for military personnel to be deployed to Saudi Arabia under the pact, but officials have said the scope of support for the kingdom would be determined through collective consultations and in line with requests from Riyadh.
Analysts say Turkey, which also has a robust defence industry, can help Saudi Arabia with technical support and combat expertise, as well as air defences and electronic warfare technologies. They say that Turkish troops, advisers and military personnel are expected to be deployed to help install and operate systems sent by Ankara once the planned deployment mandate is passed by parliament.
"I believe the Mecca alliance can be one of the first case studies of the concept that is called 'defense as a service', in which the supplier country not only provides equipment and platforms but also concepts, service, training, logistics as a whole, packaged together with political support and other layers of support," Arda Mevlutoglu, a defence analyst, told Reuters.
Defence Minister Yasar Guler has said Turkey did not see its troops engaging in combat or offensive operations against the Houthis.
Barin Kayaoglu, a professor of international relations at Ankara Social Sciences University and defence analyst, told Reuters the pact would also establish a certain level of interoperability between the allies as they operate similar systems and share expertise and technology.
Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu; Editing by Xevi Fontdegloria
Republicans began the midterm election season with a favorable Senate map, aggressive plans to redraw House districts and access to enormous sums of money. But the president underestimated how angry voters had grown at his handling of the economy, tariffs and the war he launched in Iran this year, alienating key segments of the coalition he built in his historic 2024 win.
With Congress flipped, what does Donald Trump do next?
Vice-President JD Vance sent shockwaves through Washington on Wednesday by blaming his party's midterm defeat squarely on the Iran war, in what was widely interpreted as an effort to distance himself from President Donald Trump ahead of a potential 2028 White House run.
In a carefully calibrated, 600-word statement on X, the vice-president acknowledged that Trump's 2024 voters had deserted Republicans in the midterm election.
"The reason we lost is the war," he wrote. "The president himself said so last night."
Vance's view on the war in Iran is an open secret in Washington. While he has repeatedly backed the conflict since the US and Israel attacked Tehran in February, he has reportedly expressed opposition in private meetings with administration officials.
But those disagreements had been kept out of the public eye - until now.
Could Democrats in Congress end the war in Iran?
Hours after Trump and the party were handed a bruising election defeat, Vance made clear that he felt the decision to go to war was a clear political mistake.
"If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest," Vance said.
It was a striking statement, and one with no recent precedent: it's hard to recall a similar moment in recent US political history when a sitting vice-president has so sharply broken with the president on a signature foreign policy issue.
Then came an arguably even greater surprise: Trump - who typically demands steadfast loyalty from his senior advisers - agreed with Vance that the midterms were "largely" decided by the war. He added that he would "do it again" if given the same choices.
It was an early sign that Trump - who has prized loyalty from his advisers - may give Vance a wide berth should he choose to launch a presidential campaign.
"I know how he feels about it. I think it was -- I think it was fine," Trump told reporters when asked about Vance's post blaming the war. "I knew that when I went in, and we stopped them from having a nuclear weapon, and they will never have a nuclear weapon."
Vance's statement seemed like "a way of separating himself from Trump," said Daniel Byman, a foreign policy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Reuters
Drawing contrasts with Trump will be a delicate balancing act if Vance seeks the presidency, Byman added.
That balance was on display in Vance's post. The vice president didn't mention Trump by name and attributed much of his election results analysis to unnamed pollsters.
Vance "put his toe in the water to see what he's going to do," Ashley Davis, a Republican strategist, told the BBC.
Beyond the Iran war criticism, Vance also offered a political roadmap that could preview a possible presidential campaign. He distilled the party's strategy to win back voters into a neat four-point gameplan: "1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel."
The list encapsulated much of Vance's worldview since bursting onto the national political scene, and read like the core argument in a future stump speech.
The BBC has contacted Vance's office for comment.
Of course, the next presidential election is still two years away. Vance is expected to run but hasn't made an official decision, and aides insist that he's still mulling it over.
It's also up for debate exactly how much Vance broke from Trump. Vance showed the message to Trump before posting it online, according to The New York Times.
Trump, for his part, could change his mind and make clear he'll brook no dissent from Vance or anyone else.
The president has been circumspect about who he'd support to succeed him as the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. Trump has praised Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on several occasions, but hasn't said when - or if – he'd make an endorsement.
The president appears to relish the guessing game of who he'd back to carry on his political movement, even in the past floating the idea that he'd continue to a third term (which is barred by the US Constitution).
Vance's midterms missive might not be that significant in the end. Or it could have been the starting gun for the 2028 race and the battle for the post-Trump Republican Party.