Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Central Asia's borders

Published on February 28th, 2017 | by Guest                 

Debunking a Myth about Central Asia’s Borders


by Alexander Morrison
Few parts of the world are the subject of as much sustained journalistic ignorance as Central Asia. News from what are patronizingly known as the “stans” rarely makes it into mainstream news outlets, except in connection to Islamic terrorism, authoritarianism, and ethnic and religious tensions.
While all three are certainly problems in Central Asia, these “discourses of danger” crowd out any nuance or perspective from much reporting and supposedly “strategic” analysis. If there is one thing we should have learned in the last few years, it is that Molenbeek is a more likely source of Islamic terrorists than Uzbekistan, and yet Islam Karimov’s death in September immediately had commentators reaching for unsubstantiated clichés about a growing Islamic threat.
Authoritarianism is certainly a curse in Central Asia, but there are important distinctions between Turkmenistan’s closed neo-Stalinist system, Tajikistan’s kleptocracy, Kyrgyzstan’s fragile parliamentary liberalism and Kazakhstan’s dictatorship of technocrats. As for ethnic and religious tension, the real wonder is that it is relatively contained, given the diversity of the region: nothing comparable to the ethnic cleansing in Darfur, the Christian-Muslim violence in Nigeria, Turkey’s war against the Kurds, Pakistan’s Sh’ia/Sunni conflict and persecution of Christians, or the Balkan wars of the 1990s, has ever happened in Central Asia.
Yet on one of the rare occasions when political violence became ethnicized in Central Asia – in particular the Osh events in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 – we were treated to a full range of lazy assumptions about “ancient, ineradicable ethnic hatreds,” reminiscent of Robert Kaplan’s “Balkan Ghosts” explanation for the violent collapse of Yugoslavia.
One particularly persistent trope is that the region is a dangerous powder keg because of the legacy of Soviet borders. As the BBC’s Edward Stourton wrote in the Guardian at the time of the Osh violence: “The question of what really lies behind Kyrgyzstan’s problems is in truth easy to answer; the way Stalin designed the region ensured that it would regularly be shaken by inter-ethnic violence. When he drew lines on a map to form new Soviet republics in the 1920s, he created minorities that were bound to make them unstable.”
Peter Zeihan for Stratfor similarly wrote of Osh that “Stalin drew his lines well,” while the Economist’s analysis of the violence was simply entitled: “Stalin’s Harvest.” The image of Stalin sitting in the Kremlin with a giant pencil, malevolently drawing lines on the map of Central Asia to ensure that the region would remain unstable if it ever found itself outside the Soviet Union, seems to be ineradicable. Despite strong criticism at the time, most notably from Sean Guillory and Madeleine Reeves, this lazy, essentialist and above all ahistorical explanation for Central Asia’s woes has proved remarkably persistent.
Philip Shishkin’s book on Ferghana – Restless Valley – blames most of the region’s problems on Stalin’s supposed “divide and rule” policies. A recent security analysis also refers to “Stalin’s Machiavellian ethno-political management” in drawing borders in the Ferghana Valley “irrespective of ethnic grouping.” Stratfor’s recent historical profile of Uzbekistan alleges that “Stalin made sure that the borders were drawn to mix populations further and maintain ethnic tension,” while Shaun Walker’s otherwise thoughtful December 2016 profile of the Central Asian republics 25 years after independence asserts that “the wavy, overlapping borders of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are hangovers from the Soviet borders, and often appear as if drawn at random by a drunkard holding a pencil.” At least here Stalin is apparently not to blame.
Why is this a problem? Firstly, it suggests that Central Asians are prisoners of their past, with no agency of their own that might allow them to escape it. Secondly, it grossly misrepresents that past. Central Asia’s borders might be complex, and they might be problematic, but they were not drawn at random, or without reference to ethnicity. And, above all, they were not imposed unilaterally from Moscow.
One of the major developments in the historiography of the USSR since Soviet archives opened after 1991 has been a series of in-depth studies of Soviet nationalities policy in non-Russian regions, and particularly in Central Asia. The work of Yuri Slezkine, Ronald Suny, Terry Martin, Arne Haugen, Francine Hirsch, Sergei Abashin and many others has revealed that, far from being a “Breaker of Nations,” as Robert Conquest had it, Stalin was responsible for giving them territorial and institutional form when he was Commissar for Nationalities in the 1920s. This was not a cynical divide-and-rule policy, but a response to the strength of nationalist movements that had emerged in many parts of the Russian Empire during the period of the revolution and civil war. It led to a sincere, if perhaps misguided, attempt to create nation-states where none had existed before, and this in turn was because both Lenin and Stalin believed that “backward peoples” could never attain socialism unless it came within a nationalist framework.
This was not a top-down process driven by the Central Party organization in Moscow. In the 1920s, the Soviet regime in Central Asia was fragile, and badly in need of local allies. As Adrienne Edgar has shown for Turkmenistan, Paul Bergne for Tajikistan, Ali Igmen for Kyrgyzstan, Adeeb Khalid for Uzbekistan and Dina Amanzholova and Tomohiko Uyama for Kazakhstan, the new national units grew out of an often uneasy political alliance between local nationalist intellectuals and the Soviet state – most importantly the so-called Jadids in Uzbekistan and the Alash Orda in Kazakhstan.
Local communist organizations, which had significant numbers of local cadres, played a key role in negotiating the new national boundaries with Moscow and with each other. Unlike in Africa – where at the 1884 Berlin Congress, European colonial powers really did just draw lines on the map, or in the Middle East, where the Sykes-Picot agreement paid little or no attention to local political desires – the borders that emerged in Central Asia were not drawn at random, even if at times they often seem to defy geographical logic. They were a product of late-Tsarist and early-Soviet census data, ethnographic and orientalist scholarship, and also in part of the process of raionirovanie – identifying supposedly rational and viable economic units, and ensuring that each new state met minimum criteria for becoming a full-blown Soviet Socialist Republic: these included a population of at least a million, and a capital city connected by rail.
Inevitably, the process of drawing national boundaries in a region where these borders had never existed before, where bilingualism and multi-layered identities were common, and where divisions of language and ethnicity often fell along the rural/urban divide, created many anomalies. Among the sedentary population, a wide range of older identities – Sart, Khwarazmi, Ferghani, Samarqandi, Bukharan – were subsumed under the label of “Uzbek,” which, before 1921, had only referred to particular tribal groups. Tashkent and Shymkent were both cities with a mixed population of Europeans and Uzbeks, surrounded by a hinterland populated largely by Kazakhs. The former ended up in Uzbekistan, the latter in Kazakhstan. Tajik-speaking Bukhara and Samarkand were surrounded by Turkic-speaking countryside and ended up in Uzbekistan, a decision which rankles with Tajikistan to this day.
As Kazakhs and Kyrgyz were predominantly nomadic peoples, they made up a tiny fraction of the urban population in their republics, where the cities were largely populated by Europeans and Uzbeks. Osh and Jalalabad, the two cities that saw the worst violence in 2010, were included in Kyrgyzstan despite having a predominantly Uzbek population, but this was because otherwise they would have lost their economic hinterland, which was mainly populated by Kyrgyz, and also because without them, southern Kyrgyzstan would have had no cities of any size.
The process of border revision continued long after Stalin’s death, with some changes made as late as the 1980s. As Madeleine Reeves has shown, these often followed a very different territorial and ethno-political logic from the razmezhevanie of the 1920s, and were a product of horse-trading over access to water and agricultural land at a very local level. The complex web of borders and enclaves around the Ferghana Valley was not part of a Machiavellian Stalinist plot to sow ethnic strife, but an attempt to accommodate the extraordinarily complex reality of a mixed, diverse population, and to satisfy local nationalist demands.
With hindsight, we can say that the attempt to introduce the national principle into a region where populations and political boundaries had always been organised differently was bound to cause problems: this is as true in Central Asia as it is everywhere else in the world. However, it was not Stalin, nor the Soviet state, that forced Central Asia to become nationalist. As Adeeb Khalid has argued, the Soviet nation-building project in Central Asia had local roots, and developed out of ideas and movements among the Muslim intelligentsia of the region that pre-dated the coming of Soviet power. The commissars simply co-opted them in the 1920s.
While most of this first generation of Central Asian intellectuals would be purged in the 1930s, the nation-building projects continued. These were always in tension with the broader aim of creating a common Soviet identity, but the national idea proved remarkably resilient. The independent nation-states that reluctantly emerged from the Soviet collapse in 1991 did not have to start from scratch to create national identities – they were able to build on existing Soviet foundations. That most Central Asians today identify strongly with the state they live in is a clear indication of how thoroughly the idea of nationhood has been absorbed, assimilated and indigenized.
Twenty-five years ago, rather than seeking to understand the immediate political and economic circumstances that caused inter-ethnic relations to break down, causing the former Yugoslavia to erupt in violence, Robert Kaplan attributed it to the ‘ancient, ineradicable’ hatreds between Serb and Croat, or Christian and Muslim, that had been kept in check only by the ruthless authoritarianism of Tito. His argument was memorably eviscerated by Noel Malcolm, and few today would take these ideas seriously, if applied to Yugoslavia or anywhere else in Europe. Yet Central Asia is still presented as a prisoner of its Soviet past, a place where inter-ethnic tension still lurks just under the surface, rendered inevitable by Stalin’s wicked line-drawing.
Nation-states are never natural political units. They have to be constructed, and reality has to be adjusted, to produce that perfect, illusory alignment between borders and identity that is the goal of every nationalist. This has led to ethnic cleansing, population transfers and forced assimilation – not just in most former European colonies, but all over Europe itself, the supposed home of the national idea. Compared to the population exchanges between Greece and Turkey in the 1920s, the expulsion of Germans from much of Eastern Europe after 1945, the departure of the European settlers from Algeria after 1962, or the ethnic cleansing and genocide that accompanied the Balkan wars of the 1990s, the consequences of nationalism in Central Asia so far have been relatively mild. This was partly because when the new Soviet states were first created, it was within the supranational framework of the USSR, and they did not have ‘hard’ borders with each other. Nor was it ever intended or anticipated that they might.
Even since independence and the hardening of these borders, population transfers have been gradual and voluntary: millions of Russians have left the region (though millions more remain), Kazakhs have gradually moved to Kazakhstan from neighbouring republics, attracted by its relatively buoyant economy, but all the Central Asian republics continue to have significant ethnic and religious minorities. Aggressive ethnic nationalism may threaten this equilibrium, but it is less marked than in Russia, and indeed than in many countries in Western Europe.
The tangled borders of the region do present significant challenges, particularly in the Ferghana Valley, though, as Madeleine Reeves has shown, the populations who live with these borders from day to day have developed ingenious strategies for coping with, and even exploiting them. The lack of regional integration in Central Asia is a real problem that needs to be addressed. However, the suggestion that the way the borders were drawn makes this inevitable – that Stalin’s malevolent ghost continues to haunt Central Asia, and that its peoples are trapped by his legacy – needs to be dismissed once and for all.

Alexander Morrison is Professor of History at Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan. He is the author of Russian Rule in Samarkand 1868 – 1910. A Comparison with British India (Oxford, 2008) and is currently writing a history of the Russian conquest of Central Asia. Morrison’s web page can be found at: https://nu-kz.academia.edu/AlexanderMorrison The views expressed in this commentary are Morrison’s own and do not necessarily represent the position of Nazarbayev University. Reprinted, with permission, from EurasiaNet.
Photo: At the Kazakh border (courtesy of Wikimedia Commons).
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the Presbyterian missionaries in Iran and Michael Zirinsky

An American in Iran: Interview with Michael Zirinsky
Michael Zirinsky attended Oberlin college in Ohio, majoring in government, with an emphasis on international politics. He received his M.A. in international relations at the American University in Washington, DC. Later, he finished his Ph.D. in modern European history at the University of North Carolina. 
An American in Iran: Interview with Michael ZirinskyAll of his work addresses Western relations with the Middle East. He began to focus on Iran’s relations with the West at the time of the 1979 revolution. He has written extensively on the role of the Presbyterian missionaries in Iran.
Michael lived in Iran with his family in the late 1950’s into the 60’s and finished his high school at the Community School in Tehran. 
A retired professor of  history at Boise State University in Idaho, he writes,  “Let me make myself clear: I am not a historian who believes only in studying the past for its own sake. Enjoyable as it is to learn about the past, it seems to me that one of the chief reasons to study history is to learn how we got the world we inhabit.”
Here is the interview:
How did you become interested in Iran?
In 1956, when I was 13 years old, my father, an attorney for the New York district office of the US Army Corps of Engineers, was assigned to the Corps’ newly opened “Gulf District” in Tehran. My family remained based in Tehran for six years, and I had my entire high school experience there, at Community School (Madraseye-Amrika’i), graduating in 1960 before going to college at Oberlin, in Ohio. My years in Tehran were literally a life-altering experience.
wjzqe7nz.jpgTableau of the Corps of Engineers’ Tehran Office
Community School was the last American Presbyterian mission school in Iran, originally established in 1936 for the children of American missionaries and as such permitted to continue to exist when Reza Shah’s government nationalized all foreign schools in 1940. The school rapidly became an international school “for English-speaking children,” preparing its students for matriculation at American colleges and universities. Shortly before I arrived in 1956, the school was physically transferred from the missionaries’ “central compound” – now the base of the Evangelical Church of Iran – to the former grounds of the American Hospital (erected in 1890), which had become redundant after World War II with the development of modern medicine and excellent hospitals by Iranians.


You have written a number of articles on the Presbyterians in Iran. What is their significance and how did they contribute to Iranian society?
American missionaries first came to Iran about 1830, more than 50 years before the mission was transferred to the Presbyterian Board in New York, a half century before Iran and the USA exchanged diplomatic representatives. The mission therefore was the oldest and most durable American relationship with Iran. These missionaries worked selflessly and quietly in Iran for more than a century before the US government began to engage with Iran in 1942, for almost a century and a quarter before the coup of 1953 led to massive increase of American activity. The apparent contradiction of the slogan “down with USA” and the frequently noted admiration of Iranians for Americans can in part be explained as the legacy of good will toward Americans established by the work of the Presbyterian missionaries.
Although originally the purpose of the mission was narrowly to encourage the rejuvenation of the Church of the East (the Assyrian community) from a base in Urumia, the missionaries quickly established schools with American-style curricula – including western languages and modern science – and hospitals. Schools and hospitals, the two secular legs of the missionary tripod of preaching the Gospel, education, and medicine, were open to all communities and were patronized by Muslims, Armenians, and Jews as well as Assyrians. Since the mission existed at the express permission of the Iranian government, which was unwilling to permit proselytization of Muslims, the secular work loomed largest in what the missionaries did. As such, particularly after the mission spread its work throughout northern Iran, the Presbyterians were an important vector in Iran’s modern integration with the rest of the world, especially before the development of modern roads, railroads, and air services.
The most durable institution established by the Presbyterian missionaries in Iran was Alborz High School, a video about which has recently been posted on YouTube by the Iranian government’s Press TV. Alborz was originally called by its founder, Dr. Samuel Jordan, The American College of Tehran, a name changed to Alborz College of Tehran when the Iranian government required Iranian names for all foreign schools in Iran. Before it was nationalized, Alborz was chartered by the Regents of the State of New York to award baccalaureate degrees, the last of which were issued in 1940. Since then the institution has been a premier secondary school, both under the Pahlavi monarchy and the Islamic Republic.
Community School in the late 1950s; the building was erected in 1890 as the American Hospital (photo credit: Michael Zirinsky)
In a 2005 lecture series, in Manchester, England,  you spoke about a certain U.S. Consul in Iran, namely Robert Imbrie. Can you tell us more about him and how he died?
Imbrie trained as a lawyer and served in the Great War as an ambulance driver on the Salonika front, with the French Army. After the war he joined the US consular service, serving in Petrograd (where he was declared persona non-grata by the Bolsheviks), in Finland, and at Istanbul. In all three places he apparently was an intelligence agent, acting against the Soviet government. And, according to the US diplomatic archives, which I consulted for my IJMES article about him, that was his purpose when the State Department assigned him to Iran, initially to Tehran but ultimately intended to be posted to Tabriz.
He arrived in Tehran in the midst of a dual crisis in Iran’s political history, Iran’s first effort to break the British monopoly control over Iran’s oil resources by establishing an American oil concession in the north of Iran, and Reza Pahlavi’s failed effort to create a republic in Iran, as Mustafa Kemal had recently done in Turkey. As best as I could determine from the American and British diplomatic records of the events, Reza Khan’s government sought to deflect public opinion from its failures by encouraging a pogrom against the Baha’i community. This was intended to cement Reza’s promise to the Shia hierarchy that he would never abolish the monarchy, by encouraging their prejudice against the Baha’is as schismatics.
Imbrie, an avid photographer who had previously published in The National Geographic Magazine, set out to photograph a saqqa-khaneh in Tehran which had become a focus of this anti-Baha’i agitation. There the crowd took him and his bodyguard, Melvin Seymour (an oilfield roughneck ostensibly a consular prisoner, convicted of assaulting his foreman by a consular court) for Baha’is and assaulted them. They were injured and rescued by the police who took them to a clinic for medical attention. There they were attacked again. The crowd had grown larger and more violent, augmented by soldiers from the nearby Cossack barracks. Seymour survived this second attack. Imbrie died.
The US government protested, extorted compensation from the Iranian government, and insisted on the executions of scapegoats. In the course of discussing this matter, both internally and to members of Congress, the record records that one of the US arguments for death penalties was the old racist cliché, “human life as such is not greatly valued by orientals.” Context suggests that probably Allan W. Dulles, then State Department Near Eastern Affairs chief, wrote this unsigned minute.


You have indicated in your paper that Imbrie was sent by Allen Dulles to Iran to gather information about the Soviets. You write that  Imbrie “Was a personal friend and special agent of Allen Dulles.” Was Imbrie in fact killed because he was an intelligence officer or was he killed because they thought he was a Bahai?
The crowd took him for a Baha'i.  As far as I can tell, no one on the street that day had any idea he was American, much less that as Consul he was tasked to work against Soviet interests.


You mention that Reza Shah used Imbrie’s murder “ To cement its faltering grip on power.” What do you mean by that?
Before Imbrie was beaten to death, opinion in Tehran, as recorded by foreigners, held that Ahmad Shah Qajar would soon replace Reza Khan’s government. Reza’s power depended first on his Cossacks, who had enabled him to seize Tehran in 1921, and then on the support of the notables, including the clergy, who previously had become disillusioned with earlier Qajar governments inability to protect Iranian sovereignty. Before the Great War, Tehran had managed to maintain independence by balancing foreign interests against each other, most notably playing the Russians against the British. But after the Anglo-Russian Agreement of 1907, and especially after the outbreak of the 1914 war, in effect Iran had become an Anglo-Russian condominium. With the collapse of Russia in revolution in 1917, Britain alone remained in occupation and control, especially after the capitulation of Germany in November 1918.
Iran sought to break Britain’s stranglehold on Iran at the Paris Peace Conference in 1919, but despite support from France and the USA its delegation was refused a seat. Subsequently Tehran sent Husain Ala as Minister to Washington, intending to reestablish the Shuster treasury mission of 1911, which had been “strangled” by Anglo-Russian cooperation. In the event Shuster demurred and recommended the hiring of Arthur Millspaugh as financial advisor.
Britain worked to make its control permanent by negotiating the 1919 Anglo-Persian Agreement, for which it paid Iran’s negotiators more than 131,000 pounds sterling. The Agreement would have reduced Iran’s sovereignty to a status much like that of India or Kuwait. Iran failed to ratify the agreement. Despairing of maintaining its troops in Iran due to financial exigencies, London ordered evacuation. British agents in Iran, fearing chaos and Bolshevism, encouraged Reza Khan to seize power in 1921, with his Cossacks marching from Qazvin to Tehran in British boots and carrying British arms.
In Washington, Husain Ala sought an American oil concession for the northern territories exempt from the concession of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, and bank loans to replace the loan promised by the British in the defunct 1919 agreement. This policy was sharply opposed by both Britain and the Soviets. Rumors circulating in Tehran after Imbrie’s death blamed both the British and the Soviets for encouraging the murder.
Reza Khan, as he still was, saw this crisis as an opportunity. He managed to encourage all elements –the clergy, secular patriots, the foreign legations, the Millspaugh mission, perhaps even some supporters of the Qajar monarchy – to believe that his government was the only conceivable alternative to anarchy. Consequently his government survived, and he was able to manipulate the Majles into calling a Constituent Assembly, which deposed the Qajars and made him the first Pahlavi Shah.


Can you compare the killing of the Russian emissary, Alexander Griboyedov in Tehran in 1829 to what happened to Imbrie some one hundred years later?
Not in any detail. But as Ervand Abrahamian and others have noted, “the crowd” is an important feature in Iranian politics.
Since the establishment of the modern Iranian state by the Safavids, the Shia clergy have been an essential aspect of the Iranian political scene. Their relationship with the secular authorities has been mutually supportive, and since the Islamic revolution they have become the secular authorities. In both 1829 and 1924, in my view, secular authorities encouraged the clergy to stir up crowds to help cement the power of the government. In 1829 the Russians were seen as the foreign danger; this danger was blunted by the attack on the Russian Legation. In 1924 the British were the perceived danger, and the Baha’is were to be the scapegoats. Imbrie’s death in this sense was an accident as well as a mistake. But in my view, in both cases the rousing of the crowd was a deliberate effort by government to emphasize the necessity of maintaining its power.


What is your best memory from the time you were in Iran?
This is hard for me to put into a few words. My first impressions, which have endured, were that Iran was a beautiful country full of beautiful, welcoming people, eager to be a part of a world much larger than the New York suburbs I had just left or the Tehran which was to be my adolescent home. In this context I recall an early evening during the summer of 1961 when I was 18. My mother’s eldest brother Arthur had come to visit us from the States. I took him that day to visit our local bazaar where people thought he was Iranian and were surprised when I answered their questions in my terrible “Farsi-amrika’i.” We stopped at a bakery and watched the hanging of the loaves of naan-e sangak on pegs on the wall, hot from the oven. The aromas and tastes were magnificent, and in my mind they evoked as well Arthur’s youth in the “melting pot” New York of the era of World War I. The experience lives in my head as a delicious moment of brotherhood and peace.


Turning to today, what we are seeing in the US,  is there a surge in violence since Trump began his bid for the presidency? There is a lot of anti-Semitism and Islamophobia in this country. Mosques have been burned down and Jewish cemeteries have been desecrated. Can you compare this to the desecration of Baha’i cemeteries in Iran?
There is much in our history that seems to violate the founding ideal of the Republic, “That all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”
Is there a surge in violence now? Certainly media reports suggest so. Mr. Trump’s words seem to encourage people who disagree with “equal protection of the laws.” Mosques have been attacked. Cemeteries have been vandalized. Murders have been committed. Responsible reporting of these horrors has been deprecated by the White House as “fake news.”
But I also note that casual anti-Semitism in America never went away. Many American Christians claim that “some of their best friends are Jews,” and I have overheard 7- 11 clerks complaining of customers trying to “Jew them down.” Also, as I told students in the early 1990s, after the “Red Menace” of the Soviet Russia and Red China had dissipated, as if by magic a “Green Threat” – Islam – emerged in public discussion. American hostility to Islam (a remnant of the Crusades) and anti-Semitism (implicit in much Christian theology) is not new. These horrors did not begin with Trump.
Nevertheless, I do not think that the current viciousness in American public life, should be compared to Iran’s treatment of its Baha’i population. Whatever encouragement America’s nasty people take from Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, there has been to my knowledge no official suggestion that anti-Islamism and anti-Semitism are licit, legitimate, or desirable. In Iran, on the other hand, anti-Baha'i sentiments and activism is officially sanctioned.   Iran has yet to come to terms with the contradiction between this practice and the tolerant idealism it sees in one of its founding documents, the Cyrus cylinder, which recognized the right of all subjects of the King to worship their own gods in peace.


Do you still teach? 
I retired from teaching at the beginning of 2012. In my 39 years at Boise State, I considered myself a “utility outfielder” in the history department, responsible for courses in the history of “western civilization,” modern France, modern Germany, twentieth century Europe, the Middle East, the history of Islam, as well as the history of Iran, particularly in the modern era. Looking backward at my career, I am thankful that my broad preparation in the history of America, Europe, Islam, and Iran has given me insight that perhaps a narrower focus might have overlooked. I hope that my Iran-based understanding that all humans live in a single world was reflected in my teaching. 

Ermeni Meselesi

Osmanlı Devletinde Ermeni meselesi -
Prof. Dr. Yusuf Halaçoğlu
01 Mart 2017
 
Osmanlı Devleti tarafından yüzyıllar boyunca millet-i sadıka olarak kabul edilen Ermeniler, Avrupa devletlerinin Şark Meselesi olarak şöhret bulan politikaları neticesinde, XIX. yüzyılın ikinci yarısından itibaren zayıflayan Osmanlı idaresine karşı ciddi bir sorun teşkil etmeye başlamışlardır. Fransız Devrimi’nin fitilini ateşlediği milliyetçilik cereyanları ile zayıflayan Osmanlı Devleti’nin topraklarına göz koyan Avrupalı güçlerin Hıristiyan azınlıklardan kendi emellerini gerçekleştirebilmek için yararlanma arzuları, Ermeni Kilisesi tarafından da desteklenen Ermeni milliyetçiliğini teşvik etmiş; başlangıçta burjuva ve şehir kökenli olan ve elitist bir özellik taşıyan Ermeni milliyetçiliğinin Ermeni toplumunun tüm katmanlarına yayılarak ayrılıkçı bir renge bürünmesini hızlandırmıştır. Bu sürecin dönüm noktası, literatürümüzde 93 Harbi olarak bilinen 1877-78 Osmanlı-Rus Savaşı ile bu savaşı müteakiben imzalanan Ayastefanos (3 Mart 1878) ve Berlin (13 Temmuz 1878) andlaşmalarıdır.
93 Harbi süresince Rus ordusu ile yakın bir işbirliğine girmiş olan Ermeni meclisi, savaşın ardından, Rus Çarı II. Aleksandr’a “Fırat’a kadar olan bölgenin Türklere geri verilmeyerek burada Rusya’ya bağlı bir Ermenistan kurulması” şeklinde özetlenebilecek bir muhtıra göndermiştir. Siyasi dengeler sebebiyle gerçekleştirilmesi Ruslar tarafından dahi mümkün görülmeyen bu talebin bir nebze olsun telafi edilebilmesi için Ruslar, anlaşmaya, Ermenilerin sakin olduğu Doğu Anadolu vilayetlerinde ıslahat yapılması ve buradaki Hıristiyanların Kürt ve Çerkeslere karşı korunmasının temin edilmesi gerektiğini bildiren meşhur 16. maddeyi eklemişlerdir. Bu, aynı Küçük Kaynarca Andlaşması’nın (21 Temmuz 1774) 7 ve 14. maddelerinin Çarlık Rusyası’na Orta Doğu politikaları konusunda bir meşruiyet sağladığı gibi Anadolu üzerindeki Rus emel ve tasarrufları için de bundan sonra hukuki bir zemin teşkil edecek bir biçimde düzenlenmiştir. Ancak, olası bir Osmanlı dağılmasının nimetlerinin sadece Ruslara bırakılamayacak kadar kıymetli olduğunu idrak eden Düvel-i Muazzama’nın diğer üyeleri Ayastefanos Andlaşması’nın Osmanlı aleyhindeki ağır hükümlerinin toplanan Berlin Kongresi ile tadil edilmesini kararlaştırmışlar; neticede birçok madde tekrar düzenlense de, bundan sonra Osmanlı Devleti’nin içişlerine müdahalede en önemli unsuru teşkil edecek olan ıslahat sorunu, 61. madde ile olduğu gibi bırakılmıştır.
Ermeni Meselesi artık siyasallaşmış ve Düvel-i Muazzama mensupları, özellikle de İngiltere ve Rusya arasındaki çekişme neticesinde uluslararası bir boyut kazanmıştır. Mevcut durumdan istifade etmek isteyen Ermeniler de bir adım daha atarak hızla yurt içinde ve dışında siyasi teşekküller kurmaya başlamışlardır. Bu teşekküllerin en önemlileri siyasi varlıklarını günümüze kadar sürdüren Hınçak (1887 yılında Cenevre’de kurulmuştur) ve Taşnaksutyun (1890 yılında Tiflis’te kurulmuştur) fırkalarıdır.
Oluşumlarında bariz bir Rus destek ve etkisinin görüldüğü bu teşekküller, Makyavelist bir yaklaşımla, salt büyük güçler arasındaki siyasi çekişmelerin nihai hedefleri olan Türk topraklarında bağımsız bir Ermenistan kurulmasına yetmeyeceğini, gayelerini gerçekleştirebilmek için kendilerine büyük güçlerin çifte standartlı yardımını sağlayacak başka vasıtalara da başvurmalarının elzem olduğunu kısa sürede anlamışlardır. Bu vasıtaların en önemlisi, sonuçlarından Türkiye Cumhuriyeti olarak yakın geçmişe kadar muzdarip olduğumuz şiddet ve terördür.
Her ne kadar nüfus içerisinde asla çoğunluğu teşkil etmemiş olsalar da Anadolu toprakları üzerinde hak iddia eden Ermeniler ile bu toprakların gerçek sakini Türk ve Müslümanlar arasında ilk ciddi olaylar 1890 yılında Erzurum ve İstanbul Kumkapı’da patlak vermiştir. Bu, Ermeni terör ve şiddet sinsilesinin ilk halkasıdır. Sultan II. Abdülhamid ve hatta kendisi de bir Ermeni olan Patrik Aşıkyan da dahil olmak üzere Osmanlı idarecilerine suikast teşebbüslerinden masum Müslüman halkın katledilmesine kadar geniş bir yelpazede cereyan eden Ermeni faaliyetleri, başarılı bir propaganda neticesinde, Batı kamuoyunda taraftar bulmuş ve II. Abdülhamid’in “Kızıl Sultan”, Türk halkının ise “masum Ermeni halkının katlinden sorumlu barbarlar” olarak nitelendirilmesinin amili olmuştur. 11 Mayıs 1895’de Sasun olaylarını müteakip Avrupa devletlerinin Osmanlı idaresine verdikleri notada, ıslahat yapılacak vilayetlerin Vilâyât-ı Sitte adıyla Erzurum, Bitlis, Van, Sivas, Mamûretülaziz ve Diyarbekir olarak belirlenmesi, her ayrılıkçı akımın ihtiyaç duyduğu coğrafi alan mefhumunun da Ermenilerin şuurunda yer bulmasını ve toprak iddialarının kendilerince meşru bir zemin kazanmasını hızlandırmıştır.
Batı dünyasına yönelik Ermeni propagandasında, vuku bulan şiddet olaylarının müsebbibinin II. Abdülhamid’in baskıcı rejimi olduğu iddiası, İttihad ve Terakki’nin iktidara gelişini müteakip yaşanan gelişmelerde de görüleceği üzere asılsızdır. İmparatorluğun hızla parçalanmakta olduğunu gören İttihadçıların II. Meşrutiyet’in başlarında iyi niyetli “ittihad-ı anâsır”ları uğruna Ermeni komiteleri ile birlikte hareket etme arayışları, fayda vermemiştir. Ayrılıkçı isyanlar gün be gün artmakta, İmparatorluk kan kaybetmektedir. Üstelik, Osmanlı topraklarında gözü olan iki hasmın, Çar II. Nicholas ile VII. Edward’ın, 1908 yılında, Reval’de, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu’nun paylaşımı hususunda anlaşmalarıyla Rusya ve İngiltere arasındaki çekişmeden yoksun düşen Osmanlı diplomasisinin harekat sahası hızla daralmaktadır. Türk entelektüelinin zihninde “son yurt Anadolu” özel bir hassasiyet kazanmaktadır. Fonda bu gelişmelerin yaşandığı bir dönemde, Ermeniler işte bu topraklar üzerinde de asılsız bir şekilde hak iddia etmektedirler. Birinci Cihan Harbi, artık kırılma noktasıdır.
Osmanlı Hükümeti’nin Birinci Cihan Harbi’ne girme kararı almasının en önemli nedenlerinden biri, hızla akmakta olan kum saatini durdurarak İmparatorluğu Rusya’ya karşı koruyabilme endişesidir. Bu çerçeveden bakıldığında, Doğu’daki Ermeni azınlığın tasarrufları ayrı bir önem kazanmaktadır. Daha 1912 yılında, İstanbul’daki Rus büyükelçisi Dışişleri Bakanı S. D. Sazanof’a gönderdiği raporunda, “Van, Bâyezid, Bitlis, Erzurum ve Trabzon konsoloslarımızın bildirdiklerine göre bu vilayetlerdeki Ermenilerin hepsi Rusya tarafındadırlar ve bizim ordularımızı bekliyorlar…21 Kasımda Bâyezid konsolosunun bildirdiğine göre, bütün Ermeniler Türkiye’ye karşı düşmanca tavırda bulunuyorlar ve Rusya’nın protektörlüğünü, Ermeni topraklarını işgal etmelerini bekliyorlar. Ermeni Patriği Rusya’ya Türkiye’deki Ermeni halkını kurtarması için yalvarmaktadır.” demektedir. 1914 yılına gelindiğinde, Ermeni komiteleri de Türkiye’deki şubelerine şu tâlimatı vermişlerdir: “Rus ordusu sınırdan ilerler ve Osmanlı ordusu geri çekilirse her tarafta birden eldeki vasıtalarla başkaldırılacaktır.
Osmanlı ordusu iki ateş arasında bırakılacak, resmî binalar bombalanacak, iaşe depolarına sabotajlar düzenlenecek; aksine Osmanlı ordusu taarruza geçerse Ermeni askerleri Ruslara katılacak ve silah altına alınanlar kıtalarından kaçarak, Türk birliklerinin geri cephelerine zarar vermek ve ülke içinde çeşitli olaylar çıkarmak için çeteler kuracaktır.”
Nitekim, savaşın başında Doğu Cephesi’nde yaşanan gelişmeler aynen yukarıdaki raporlarda öngörüldüğü şekilde seyretmiştir. Ermeniler, seferberlik ilan edildiği 3 Ağustos 1914 tarihinden itibaren ordudan kaçmaya başlamışlar; Türk askerlerine karşı Zeytun’da silahlı saldırı tertip etmişler; Rusya’ya göç ederek Ruslar tarafından Türk ordusuna karşı savaşmak üzere oluşturulan çetelere katılmışlar; Rus ordusunun 1 Kasım 1914’te Doğu Anadolu üzerine başlattığı taarruzu müteakip de birçok vilayette isyan çıkarmışlardır. Bu Ermeni isyanları arasında en büyüğü ve aralarında tehcir kararı da bulunmak üzere sonuçları açısından en önemlisi, Van’daki isyandır.
Van ve çevresinde memur ve jandarmalar öldürülmüş, karakollar ve Türklerin evleri saldırıya uğramış, resmî binalar yakılarak isyan bütün Van bölgesine yayılmıştır. Osmanlı hükümetinin seferberlik ilânından itibaren dokuz ay boyunca iyi niyetle ve küçük tedbirlerle işi çözmeye çalışması fayda etmemiş, Ermeniler konusunda köklü tedbirler alma lüzumu gün geçtikçe önem kazanmıştır. Bu tedbirlerin en önemlisi, tehcir kararıdır. İşte bu makale tehcir sürecinin nasıl işletildiği üzerinde duracak ve gerçeğin Ermeni propagandası tarafından sunulan manzaradan tamamen farklı olduğunu gösterecektir.

Neden Hayır demeli! (Arslan Bulut- Yeni Çağ)


Neden Hayır demeli! (Arslan Bulut- Yeni Çağ)

Mehmet Alkanalka, piyade komando kurmay albay olarak, 100 tam puanla birinci sırada olduğu halde, 2104 ve 2015 Yüksek Askeri Şuraları'nda, tuğgeneralliğe terfi ettirilmeyip, kendi astının emri altında çalışmaya mecbur edilince emekliliğini istedi ama emeklilikten sonra devletin bütün birimlerine başvurarak hakkını aradı.
Çünkü sonradan ortaya çıktı ki kendisi terfi ettirilmezken, 2014 şurasında general yapılan 19 albaydan 12'si ve 2015 şurasında general yapılan 23 albaydan 20'si, 15 Temmuz darbesine karıştıkları gerekçesiyle TSK'dan atıldı!
Bu durum, kendisine nasıl bir haksızlık yapıldığının deliliydi ama Yüksek Askeri Şura kararları Anayasa'ya göre yargı denetimine açık değildi. Son olarak Anayasa Mahkemesi'ne hak ihlali gerekçesiyle başvurmak için hukuki araştırma yaparken, bu mahkemeye Cumhurbaşkanı tarafından atanan iki üyenin atıldığına dair kararı gördü ve inceledi.
***
Anayasa Mahkemesi'nin İnternet sitesinde de yayınlanan 4 Ağustos 2016 tarihli ve 2016/12 sayılı kararında şöyle deniliyordu:
"15 Temmuz 2016 gecesi meydana gelen darbe teşebbüsünün daha iyi anlaşılması bakımından, Ankara Cumhuriyet Başsavcılığı'nın darbe teşebbüsünden kısa süre önce düzenlediği, 6 Haziran 2016 tarihli iddianamesinde yer verilen tespit, değerlendirme ve öngörülere özetle yer verilmesi uygun olacaktır;
-TSK içerisindeki bu yapılanmanın ordu disiplinini bozacak ve ülke savunmasında zafiyet oluşturacak bir yoğunluğa ulaştığı,
-FETÖ/PYD'nin darbe teşebbüsünde bulunma tehlikesinin açık ve yakın olduğu,
-Bu tehlikenin gerçekleşmesi halinde bunun devlet için gerçek bir yıkım olacağı, ülkenin bir iç savaşa sürüklenebileceği, devletin yeniden ayağa kaldırılmasının mümkün olmayabileceği,
-FETÖ/PYD'nin tasfiyesinin devlet için artık varlık yokluk meselesi haline geldiği..."
***
Alkanalka, bu gerekçeyi görünce "Daha ne yazsınlar? Darbe teşebbüsünden tam 40 gün önce darbe yapılacağı açık açık Ankara Cumhuriyet Başsavcılığı tarafından yazılmasına rağmen devlet yetkilileri ne yapmışlardır?" dedi ve "Karartılmış Yıldızlar" adlı bir kitap yazdı. (Sokak Kitapları Yayınları, 0 216 405 10 88)
Kitapta ayrıca, uzmanlık alanıyla ilgili "Beşinci Nesil Savaş"ı inceledi.
"Beşinci Nesil Savaş, yıldızlar savaşı olacaktır. Beşinci Nesil Savaş, fikir savaşları merkezli ve insan odaklı olacaktır" diye ifade ettiği tespitleri, aslında kendisi gibi yıldız bir albayın neden terfi ettirilmeyip FETÖ'cülerin terfi ettirildiğini de göstermiş oluyor.
***
Gerçi, Anadolu Ajansı'nın özetle yayınladığı Ankara Cumhuriyet Başsavcılığı'nın iddianamesini, 23 Temmuz 2016 tarihli yazımda "İddianamede darbe ihbarı vardı" diye bu sütunda duyurmuştum ama 15 Temmuz olayının sıcaklığı içinde kimse bu konu üzerinde durmamıştı. Şimdi bütün gerçekler ortadadır.
Devlet, darbeyi çok önceden takip altına aldığına, kontrol ettiğine ve yönlendirdiğine göre, 15 Temmuz gecesi, komutanların düğünlerde gezmesi, bazı komutanların derdest edilmesi de senaryonun bir parçasıydı!
ABD Başkan Yardımcısı Biden, Ankara'ya geldiğinde bu sebeple "Biz, İnternet oyunu zannettik bu sebeple kınamakta geciktik" dedi. AB istihbarat raporunda bu sebeple "kurgu darbe" denildi. TBMM'deki komisyona MİT Müsteşarı ve Genelkurmay Başkanı'nın çağrılması bu sebeple önlendi! Bu sebeple görevlerinden alınmadılar!
***
250 kişinin ölümüne yol açan, devleti büyük bir tehdit altına sokan bu olaylardan darbeyi yönlendirenler de sorumludur.
Devlet darbeyi bildiğine göre, darbecilerin suç işlemesini beklemek yerine, hepsini tutuklayabilirdi.
Siyasi iktidar, böyle yapmadı ve Anayasa değişikliğiyle 15 Temmuz'u Türkiye'yi Türk devleti olmaktan çıkarmanın dayanağı olarak kullanmaya başladı!
Bütün Türklerin, Anayasa değişikliğine bu sebeple karşı çıkması gerekir!

Monday, February 27, 2017

at the Altar of American Greatness

Published on February 26th, 2017 | by Guest1

At the Altar of American Greatness


by Andrew Bacevich
Apart from being a police officer, firefighter, or soldier engaged in one of this nation’s endless wars, writing a column for a major American newspaper has got to be one of the toughest and most unforgiving jobs there is.  The pay may be decent (at least if your gig is with one of the major papers in New York or Washington), but the pressures to perform on cue are undoubtedly relentless.
Anyone who has ever tried cramming a coherent and ostensibly insightful argument into a mere 750 words knows what I’m talking about.  Writing op-eds does not perhaps qualify as high art.  Yet, like tying flies or knitting sweaters, it requires no small amount of skill.  Performing the trick week in and week out without too obviously recycling the same ideas over and over again — or at least while disguising repetitions and concealing inconsistencies — requires notable gifts.
David Brooks of the New York Times is a gifted columnist.  Among contemporary journalists, he is our Walter Lippmann, the closest thing we have to an establishment-approved public intellectual.  As was the case with Lippmann, Brooks works hard to suppress the temptation to rant.  He shuns raw partisanship.  In his frequent radio and television appearances, he speaks in measured tones.  Dry humor and ironic references abound.  And like Lippmann, when circumstances change, he makes at least a show of adjusting his views accordingly.
For all that, Brooks remains an ideologue.  In his columns, and even more so in his weekly appearances on NPR and PBS, he plays the role of the thoughtful, non-screaming conservative, his very presence affirming the ideological balance that, until November 8th of last year, was a prized hallmark of “respectable” journalism.  Just as that balance always involved considerable posturing, so, too, with the ostensible conservatism of David Brooks: it’s an act.

Praying at the Altar of American Greatness
In terms of confessional fealty, his true allegiance is not to conservatism as such, but to the Church of America the Redeemer.  This is a virtual congregation, albeit one possessing many of the attributes of a more traditional religion.  The Church has its own Holy Scripture, authenticated on July 4, 1776, at a gathering of 56 prophets.  And it has its own saints, prominent among them the Good Thomas Jefferson, chief author of the sacred text (not the Bad Thomas Jefferson who owned and impregnated slaves); Abraham Lincoln, who freed said slaves and thereby suffered martyrdom (on Good Friday no less); and, of course, the duly canonized figures most credited with saving the world itself from evil: Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt, their status akin to that of saints Peter and Paul in Christianity.  The Church of America the Redeemer even has its own Jerusalem, located on the banks of the Potomac, and its own hierarchy, its members situated nearby in High Temples of varying architectural distinction.
This ecumenical enterprise does not prize theological rigor. When it comes to shalts and shalt nots, it tends to be flexible, if not altogether squishy. It demands of the faithful just one thing: a fervent belief in America’s mission to remake the world in its own image. Although in times of crisis Brooks has occasionally gone a bit wobbly, he remains at heart a true believer.
In a March 1997 piece for The Weekly Standard, his then-employer, he summarized his credo.  Entitled “A Return to National Greatness,” the essay opened with a glowing tribute to the Library of Congress and, in particular, to the building completed precisely a century earlier to house its many books and artifacts.  According to Brooks, the structure itself embodied the aspirations defining America’s enduring purpose.  He called particular attention to the dome above the main reading room decorated with a dozen “monumental figures” representing the advance of civilization and culminating in a figure representing America itself.  Contemplating the imagery, Brooks rhapsodized:
“The theory of history depicted in this mural gave America impressive historical roots, a spiritual connection to the centuries. And it assigned a specific historic role to America as the latest successor to Jerusalem, Athens, and Rome. In the procession of civilization, certain nations rise up to make extraordinary contributions… At the dawn of the 20th century, America was to take its turn at global supremacy.  It was America’s task to take the grandeur of past civilizations, modernize it, and democratize it.  This common destiny would unify diverse Americans and give them a great national purpose.”
This February, 20 years later, in a column with an identical title, but this time appearing in the pages of his present employer, the New York Times, Brooks revisited this theme.  Again, he began with a paean to the Library of Congress and its spectacular dome with its series of “monumental figures” that placed America “at the vanguard of the great human march of progress.”  For Brooks, those 12 allegorical figures convey a profound truth.
“America is the grateful inheritor of other people’s gifts.  It has a spiritual connection to all people in all places, but also an exceptional role.  America culminates history.  It advances a way of life and a democratic model that will provide people everywhere with dignity.  The things Americans do are not for themselves only, but for all mankind.”
In 1997, in the midst of the Clinton presidency, Brooks had written that “America’s mission was to advance civilization itself.”  In 2017, as Donald Trump gained entry into the Oval Office, he embellished and expanded that mission, describing a nation “assigned by providence to spread democracy and prosperity; to welcome the stranger; to be brother and sister to the whole human race.”
Back in 1997, “a moment of world supremacy unlike any other,” Brooks had worried that his countrymen might not seize the opportunity that was presenting itself.  On the cusp of the twenty-first century, he worried that Americans had “discarded their pursuit of national greatness in just about every particular.”  The times called for a leader like Theodore Roosevelt, who wielded that classic “big stick” and undertook monster projects like the Panama Canal.  Yet Americans were stuck instead with Bill Clinton, a small-bore triangulator.  “We no longer look at history as a succession of golden ages,” Brooks lamented.  “And, save in the speeches of politicians who usually have no clue what they are talking about,” America was no longer fulfilling its “special role as the vanguard of civilization.”
By early 2017, with Donald Trump in the White House and Steve Bannon whispering in his ear, matters had become worse still.  Americans had seemingly abandoned their calling outright.  “The Trump and Bannon anschluss has exposed the hollowness of our patriotism,” wrote Brooks, inserting the now-obligatory reference to Nazi Germany.  The November 2016 presidential election had “exposed how attenuated our vision of national greatness has become and how easy it was for Trump and Bannon to replace a youthful vision of American greatness with a reactionary, alien one.”  That vision now threatens to leave America as “just another nation, hunkered down in a fearful world.”
What exactly happened between 1997 and 2017, you might ask?  What occurred during that “moment of world supremacy” to reduce the United States from a nation summoned to redeem humankind to one hunkered down in fear?
Trust Brooks to have at hand a brow-furrowing explanation.  The fault, he explains, lies with an “educational system that doesn’t teach civilizational history or real American history but instead a shapeless multiculturalism,” as well as with “an intellectual culture that can’t imagine providence.”  Brooks blames “people on the left who are uncomfortable with patriotism and people on the right who are uncomfortable with the federal government that is necessary to lead our project.”
An America that no longer believes in itself — that’s the problem. In effect, Brooks revises Norma Desmond’s famous complaint about the movies, now repurposed to diagnose an ailing nation: it’s the politics that got small.
Nowhere does he consider the possibility that his formula for “national greatness” just might be so much hooey. Between 1997 and 2017, after all, egged on by people like David Brooks, Americans took a stab at “greatness,” with the execrable Donald Trump now numbering among the eventual results.

Invading Greatness
Say what you will about the shortcomings of the American educational system and the country’s intellectual culture, they had far less to do with creating Trump than did popular revulsion prompted by specific policies that Brooks, among others, enthusiastically promoted. Not that he is inclined to tally up the consequences. Only as a sort of postscript to his litany of contemporary American ailments does he refer even in passing to what he calls the “humiliations of Iraq.”
A great phrase, that. Yet much like, say, the “tragedy of Vietnam” or the “crisis of Watergate,” it conceals more than it reveals.  Here, in short, is a succinct historical reference that cries out for further explanation. It bursts at the seams with implications demanding to be unpacked, weighed, and scrutinized.  Brooks shrugs off Iraq as a minor embarrassment, the equivalent of having shown up at a dinner party wearing the wrong clothes.
Under the circumstances, it’s easy to forget that, back in 2003, he and other members of the Church of America the Redeemer devoutly supported the invasion of Iraq.  They welcomed war.  They urged it. They did so not because Saddam Hussein was uniquely evil — although he was evil enough — but because they saw in such a war the means for the United States to accomplish its salvific mission.  Toppling Saddam and transforming Iraq would provide the mechanism for affirming and renewing America’s “national greatness.”
Anyone daring to disagree with that proposition they denounced as craven or cowardly.  Writing at the time, Brooks disparaged those opposing the war as mere “marchers.” They were effete, pretentious, ineffective, and absurd.  “These people are always in the streets with their banners and puppets.  They march against the IMF and World Bank one day, and against whatever war happens to be going on the next… They just march against.”

Perhaps space constraints did not permit Brooks in his recent column to spell out the “humiliations” that resulted and that even today continue to accumulate.  Here in any event is a brief inventory of what that euphemism conceals: thousands of Americans needlessly killed; tens of thousands grievously wounded in body or spirit; trillions of dollars wasted; millions of Iraqis dead, injured, or displaced; this nation’s moral standing compromised by its resort to torture, kidnapping, assassination, and other perversions; a region thrown into chaos and threatened by radical terrorist entities like the Islamic State that U.S. military actions helped foster.  And now, if only as an oblique second-order bonus, we have Donald Trump’s elevation to the presidency to boot.
In refusing to reckon with the results of the war he once so ardently endorsed, Brooks is hardly alone.  Members of the Church of America the Redeemer, Democrats and Republicans alike, are demonstrably incapable of rendering an honest accounting of what their missionary efforts have yielded.
Brooks belongs, or once did, to the Church’s neoconservative branch. But liberals such as Bill Clinton, along with his secretary of state Madeleine Albright, were congregants in good standing, as were Barack Obama and his secretary of state Hillary Clinton.  So, too, are putative conservatives like Senators John McCain, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, all of them subscribing to the belief in the singularity and indispensability of the United States as the chief engine of history, now and forever.
Back in April 2003, confident that the fall of Baghdad had ended the Iraq War, Brooks predicted that “no day will come when the enemies of this endeavor turn around and say, ‘We were wrong. Bush was right.’” Rather than admitting error, he continued, the war’s opponents “will just extend their forebodings into a more distant future.”
Yet it is the war’s proponents who, in the intervening years, have choked on admitting that they were wrong. Or when making such an admission, as did both John Kerry and Hillary Clinton while running for president, they write it off as an aberration, a momentary lapse in judgment of no particular significance, like having guessed wrong on a TV quiz show.
Rather than requiring acts of contrition, the Church of America the Redeemer has long promulgated a doctrine of self-forgiveness, freely available to all adherents all the time. “You think our country’s so innocent?” the nation’s 45th president recently barked at a TV host who had the temerity to ask how he could have kind words for the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Observers professed shock that a sitting president would openly question American innocence.
In fact, Trump’s response and the kerfuffle that ensued both missed the point. No serious person believes that the United States is “innocent.” Worshipers in the Church of America the Redeemer do firmly believe, however, that America’s transgressions, unlike those of other countries, don’t count against it. Once committed, such sins are simply to be set aside and then expunged, a process that allows American politicians and pundits to condemn a “killer” like Putin with a perfectly clear conscience while demanding that Donald Trump do the same.
What the Russian president has done in Crimea, Ukraine, and Syria qualifies as criminal. What American presidents have done in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya qualifies as incidental and, above all, beside the point.
Rather than confronting the havoc and bloodshed to which the United States has contributed, those who worship in the Church of America the Redeemer keep their eyes fixed on the far horizon and the work still to be done in aligning the world with American expectations. At least they would, were it not for the arrival at center stage of a manifestly false prophet who, in promising to “make America great again,” inverts all that “national greatness” is meant to signify.
For Brooks and his fellow believers, the call to “greatness” emanates from faraway precincts — in the Middle East, East Asia, and Eastern Europe.  For Trump, the key to “greatness” lies in keeping faraway places and the people who live there as faraway as possible. Brooks et al. see a world that needs saving and believe that it’s America’s calling to do just that.  In Trump’s view, saving others is not a peculiarly American responsibility. Events beyond our borders matter only to the extent that they affect America’s well-being. Trump worships in the Church of America First, or at least pretends to do so in order to impress his followers.
That Donald Trump inhabits a universe of his own devising, constructed of carefully arranged alt-facts, is no doubt the case. Yet, in truth, much the same can be said of David Brooks and others sharing his view of a country providentially charged to serve as the “successor to Jerusalem, Athens, and Rome.” In fact, this conception of America’s purpose expresses not the intent of providence, which is inherently ambiguous, but their own arrogance and conceit. Out of that conceit comes much mischief. And in the wake of mischief come charlatans like Donald Trump.

Reprinted, with permission, from TomDispatch.
Andrew J. Bacevich, a TomDispatch regular, is the author of America’s War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History, now out in paperbackFollow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook. Check out the newest Dispatch Book, John Feffer’s dystopian novel Splinterlands, as well as Nick Turse’s Next Time They’ll Come to Count the Dead, and Tom Engelhardt’s latest book, Shadow Government: Surveillance, Secret Wars, and a Global Security State in a Single-Superpower WorldCopyright 2017 Andrew J. Bacevich

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Central Asian Jihadists in Syria

The Transformation of Central Asian Jihadists in Syria

A new alliance emerges and Central Asian militants fight on all sides of the war.
By Uran Botobekov for The Diplomat
February 21, 2017
 
In early February, several groups fighting in Syria with predominantly Central Asian memberships joined forces with a new rebel coalition. In particular, the Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad group, consisting mainly of Uzbek jihadists from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, said in a statement that they were joining the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham, a new rebel coalition.
In late January, a Twitter account associated with theTurkistan Islamic Party (TIP) announced that the group was joining the new Sunni alliance. Uighur militants from China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region were among the first to openly support the creation of the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham.
Another group of Uzbek Islamists from Central Asia, Katibat al-Imam Bukhari, reportedly has also become a member of the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham, but has not published an official statement to that effect.
Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month. The joining of Uzbek militant groups with this new rebel coalition may be related to Katibat al-Imam Bukhari’s bitter experience joining with ISIS in October 2014. At that time al-Qaeda and the Taliban movement, both openly hostile to the Islamic state for leadership in the global jihad, interpreted the daring step as a betrayal. The Taliban and Katibat al-Imam Bukhari (former called the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) have long been allies in Afghanistan, acting under the ideological direction of al-Qaeda. Some Uzbek militants fighting in Syria did not support the union with ISIS, leading to a split in the group. The Taliban movement in November 2015 attacked a Katibat al-Imam Bukhari military camp in Afghanistan’s Zabul province and, for the abovementioned “betrayal,” executed 60 Uzbek jihadists together with their leader Usman Ghazi.
In November 2015, Uzbek jihadists in Syria pledged allegiance to the Al Nusrah Front, which in July 2016 changed its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham — in apparent return to their former allies. Jabhat Fateh al-Sham has played a key role in bringing Central Asian Islamist terrorist groups into the newly created opposition alliance which has Abu Jaber Hashem Al-Sheikh, former head of the Ahrar al Sham group, at its head.
Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham’s ideological platform in general coincides with the principles and views of al-Qaeda. The new jihadist alliance advocates the creation of a single Islamic state with the rigid hierarchy and assimilation of its constituent groups. In accordance with the ideological setting of al-Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, a new armed alliance was formed by Sunni Muslims who practice a radical form of Wahhabism.
On February 9, 2017 Abu Jaber Hashem Al-Sheikh made his first appearance in a video message as the new alliance’s leader. He said that the alliance is an independent entity and that its creation “ushers a new stage in the life of the blessed revolution.” Their main mission, Abu Jaber stressed, is to topple the Assad regime. The group will begin its “military work” against the regime in short order, he said.
Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham has successfully assimilated three terrorist groups whose members primarily hail from Central Asia: Katibat al-Imam Bukhari, the Turkestan Islamic Party, and Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad. Now, in accordance with the general lines of the new alliance, Uighur and Uzbek jihadists in these groups will have to fight on three fronts simultaneously.
First is the war against the Syrian Army, controlled by the Assad regime. In this direction, achieving success is incredibly difficult. The Syrian Army has the active support of Iran and Russia, and Russia has been strident in pursuing rebel groups even more harshly than pursuing the Islamic State.
Second is the war against the former opposition bloc supporters, such as the Free Syrian Army, Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Mujahideen, and others. Already fights have broken out between the more radical members of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham and the moderate opposition, with about 100 moderate Islamists killed. According to the International Crisis Group, the stumbling block was the decision of the moderate opposition to send their representatives to the recent summit in Astana and their desire to settle the conflict by peaceful means, which the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham did not like. In this confrontation, Western sympathy is on the side of the moderate opposition, which receives military assistance from external donors.
The third war is the confrontation between ISIS and al-Qaeda. Conflict between the two global terrorist movements for dominant leadership in the global jihad may turn into a major war in the future. Here, Central Asian militants are on both sides of the divide. Jihadists from Central Asia have long been turned into a “toy” in the hands of the major Islamist terrorist groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
Uran Botobekov has a PhD in political science and is an expert on political Islam.

Friday, February 24, 2017

LRB - Russia and the West

TONY WOOD
 
Russia and the West
 
Whatever favours the Russians may have asked of Trump’s campaign team, and whatever gruesome personal chemistry there may be between the two presidents, it is the basic power imbalance between their countries that governs strategic calculations on both sides. The US enjoys accumulated advantages that enable it either to attend to or ignore Russian interests as it pleases.
 
 
Not since the days of Ronald Reagan has Russia played such a prominent role in US political life. After Donald Trump’s shock victory – greeted in the Russian parliament with cheers and champagne – came accusations of Russian meddling in the US electoral process, followed in January by the leak of a dossier claiming that the Russian authorities had accumulated (even more) compromising information on Trump. More recently there have been alarms over the Kremlin’s connections with and possible influence on the incoming secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, and Trump’s now ex-national security adviser, Michael Flynn. The rhetoric emanating from US politicians and media commentators too seems to be drawn from another era. In November, a murky online group called PropOrNot went full McCarthy by releasing ‘The List’, designed to name and shame – or indeed casually smear – websites which it believes ‘reliably echo Russian propaganda’. In January, Fox News rolled back the years by announcing that there was ‘no Soviet source’ for the DNC leaks, and the title of a piece in the New York Review of Books – though it was soon corrected to reflect events since 1991 asked: ‘Was Snowden a Soviet Agent?’ The Russian official media, in their turn, have been producing waves of anti-Western rhetoric for a few years now, but the Ukraine crisis and the sanctions put in place by the US, Canada and the EU sent them to fevered new heights.
All this makes it hard to shake the feeling that we are living through a deranged re-run of the Cold War. Of course, the idea of a reprise of the superpower stand-off that dominated the 20th century has been in the air more or less since the actual Cold War ended, the stuff of countless think-tank briefings and film plots. But it has gained particular force over the last decade or so, supplying a readymade framework for understanding the mounting tensions between Russia and the West – especially since the Russo-Georgian war of August 2008. For one current of opinion, that conflict provided yet more evidence that Putin’s Russia had reverted to Soviet type, bent on dominating its neighbours just as the USSR and the tsarist empire had been. From this perspective, Russia and the West are locked in the same old geopolitical struggle, an authoritarian power pitted against the world’s democracies.
A more even-handed version of the ‘new Cold War’ argument doesn’t see the recent downturn in US-Russian relations as a straight reversion to the familiar pattern, but holds instead that it is in various ways comparable to the polarisation that set in soon after 1945 – the Cold War standing in this case as both analogy and warning. In Return to Cold War, Robert Legvold – a specialist in post-Soviet foreign policy and regular contributor to Foreign Affairs – sees worrying similarities between the current situation and the early stages of the Cold War (c.1948-53), focusing in particular on the rhetorical framings of the conflict on each side, and on the seriousness of the potential outcomes. Then as now, in his view, each side assumed the other alone was at fault – ‘the essence of the conflict was in the other side’s essence’ – while the zero-sum character of the confrontation also meant that both parties felt it ‘could end only with either a fundamental change in the other side or its collapse’. Moreover, the globally interlinked nature of the Cold War meant that ‘trouble in one area metastasised to others,’ and Legvold sees the current situation in similar terms: bitterness over Ukraine has choked off co-operation on a range of issues, most notably nuclear arms reduction and non-proliferation. The clash between Russia and the West, according to Legvold, threatens to ‘cripple efforts to come to grips with the 21st century’s new challenges’, from terrorism to climate change to cyber warfare.
Legvold may be right that the rhetoric coming from either side could have material effects. The notion of a ‘cold war’ is a kind of geopolitical speech act: if enough people in power decide they are in one, it will materialise. But there are decisive differences between the Cold War contest and current frictions between Russia and the West: the lack of remotely comparable ideological stakes; the greatly reduced number of players (this time around, China, East and South Asia, Africa and Latin America are all bystanders); and the much more geographically circumscribed nature of the struggle (with the grim exception of Syria, the zones of contention have been in Eastern Europe). In short, it makes more sense to say that both Russia and the world have been so transformed over the past generation that none of the Cold War conditions can be said to apply. In Should We Fear Russia? Dmitri Trenin (a career officer in the Soviet and then Russian army for twenty years, including stints in Iraq and East Germany; he now runs the Carnegie Endowment’s Moscow office) calmly and concisely sets out this line of argument. In his view, the current rivalry between Washington and its allies on one side and Russia on the other is ‘more fluid and less predictable’ than the 20th-century stand-off had been. But this in itself is cause for concern: his Tolstoyan verdict is that ‘the situation in Western-Russian relations may now be as bad, and as dangerous, as at any time during the Cold War, but it is bad and dangerous in its own new way.’
The debate over whether we are or are not in a new Cold War reflects different views of what has happened over the last quarter-century. The story that is most often told in the West sees Gorbachev and Yeltsin making great strides towards democracy and free markets at home, matched by an unprecedented degree of co-operation with the West on the global stage. In this narrative, the rise of Putin meant a reversal of all these trends, resulting in a steady reassertion of Russian power after 2000 that fuelled a series of ugly confrontations. In Who Lost Russia? Peter Conradi attempts a more balanced view, providing a brisk run-through of the post-Cold War era in which both Russia and the West are faulted for a string of misguided moves. A correspondent in Moscow from 1988 to 1995, and now foreign editor of the Sunday Times, Conradi points out the major landmarks along the road to the present hostility. From Russia’s perspective, these were the steady enlargement of Nato; the interventions in Kosovo, Iraq and Libya; US support for protest-driven regime change in former Soviet states from the mid-2000s onwards; and US and EU attempts to pull Georgia and Ukraine into the West’s orbit. From the Western point of view, the charge sheet includes Russia’s suppression of internal dissent and rigging of the electoral system; attacks on the principle of private property (most notably with the dismembering of Yukos); the invasion of Georgia; the annexation of Crimea and military incursions into eastern Ukraine; as well as the more recent signs of interloping in the US elections.
Both Conradi and Legvold try to take a fair-minded approach, Legvold arguing that ‘the two sides arrived at this point together,’ and that ‘the only path out of the current impasse must be travelled together.’ In the present climate, to adopt this kind of stance is no doubt to court condemnation in some quarters – it doesn’t take much for someone to be classed as an apologist for Putin, or what the Germans call a Putinversteher. But the problem with both their accounts is that their very even-handedness obscures the fundamental fact that has shaped US-Russian relations since the end of the Cold War: the huge imbalance in power and resources between the two parties. Those who point to this fact are often depicted as supporters of the Kremlin, as if to note the disparity were somehow to take the weaker side. To be sure, Putin has found sympathisers in unlikely places – on the left as well as the right – who are willing to condone his crimes; when Russia bombs civilians, some insist on seeing it as part of a ‘counter-hegemonic’ design. But there is a huge distance, politically and ethically, between measuring how much power Russia really has and defending what Putin does with it. One of the effects of the ‘new Cold War’ rhetoric is to conflate the two, and thus to prevent any discussion of the actual international balance of power. But it’s impossible to understand the story of relations between Russia and the West without taking it into account: all other geopolitical calculations have flowed from it – including both the West’s impulse to drive home its advantage through expansion of Nato, and Russia’s growing resentment of that process, as well as its inability to halt or reverse it. In March 2009, Hillary Clinton, then secretary of state, presented her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov with a yellow plastic box featuring a red button marked ‘reset’ in English; but the State Department had made a basic translation error when labelling the button in Russian: instead of perezagruzka it read peregruzka – not ‘reset’, but ‘overload’. The gaffe pointed to an embarrassing lack of either competence or care in Washington; but it was also an unbeatable metaphor for the whole trajectory of post-Cold War relations between the two countries.
*
‘It is difficult,’ Conradi writes, ‘to pinpoint the precise moment at which relations between Russia and the West went wrong.’ In fact, he continues, ‘it may be that there was never a moment at which they were going right.’ Coming at the end of the book, this reads like an evasion rather than a conclusion, but Conradi may be more right than he knows. Within the story he tells lie the makings of an alternative account, in which a Russian fantasy of alliance with or even integration into the West was gradually revealed to be a delusion the West never shared. The Russians had believed the end of Communism also meant the end of superpower rivalry, and assumed that the former would lead to their country becoming a fully-fledged member of the liberal capitalist world. But the West they sought to join had strategic priorities of its own which, far from receding with the Cold War’s end, could now be expanded and pursued unopposed. What has happened over the past decade is not so much an unforeseen escalation of tensions as a collision – delayed or masked for a time – of incompatible interests.
The West has, of course, long been the central reference point for Russian and Soviet policymakers, whether as antagonist or as object of admiration. Moscow’s most recent pro-Western turn began under Gorbachev, who dreamed of a ‘common European home’, a harmonious bloc of broadly social-democratic states – a kind of Greater Scandinavia. Under Yeltsin this turned into a project to make Russia into a ‘normal’ liberal democracy, firmly under the tutelage of the US. But the disasters of shock therapy eroded what little popular support there was for this line, and in 1996 its main proponent, Andrei Kozyrev, was replaced as foreign minister by Evgeny Primakov. The former spy chief oversaw a recalibration of policy, preferring to set a course more independent of the West; in 1999, as prime minister, he was sharply critical of Nato’s intervention in Kosovo, carried out over Russian objections and without UN approval. Putin, on the other hand, returned to the ‘Westernising’ stance to begin with: shortly before assuming the presidency for the first time in 2000, he told David Frost he sought ‘more profound’ integration with Nato, and ‘would not rule out’ Russian membership. In the aftermath of the 11 September attacks – having himself levelled the remains of Grozny in what was billed as a ‘counterterrorist operation’ – Putin saw the potential for an ‘anti-terrorist’ alliance with the Bush administration, opening Russian airspace and encouraging Central Asian states to help with the assault on Afghanistan. The co-operation between Washington and Moscow was short-lived (the unilateral US withdrawal from the ABM treaty in June 2002 was an early sign that Russian overtures would not be reciprocated), but throughout Putin’s first two terms, even as tensions began to multiply, some version of the idea of allying with the West persisted. It recurred under Dmitry Medvedev, too, in the form of his 2008 proposals for a new ‘European security architecture’, or in his call that same year for closer economic integration of a space stretching from ‘Vancouver to Vladivostok’.
None of these initiatives found an audience in the West. For most of the period since 1991, the West has seen no place for Russia within Euro-Atlantic security arrangements, and has had little reason to pay heed to Russian interests outside of them either. Nato enlargement, eagerly sought by the former Warsaw Pact countries as a security guarantee, was seen by the Clinton administration primarily as a political instrument rather than a military commitment: the lure of membership was a means of pressuring Eastern European governments to forge ahead with market reforms. Of course, arguments were made for Nato enlargement based on the strategic need to step into the vacuum left by the Soviet withdrawal – what Clinton called a ‘grey zone’. But at the time, this had little to do with a ‘Russian threat’ as far as Washington was concerned: expansion could be pursued precisely because Russia was so weak. As James Goldgeier put it in his 1999 book on Nato enlargement, Not Whether but When, ‘the possibility that Poland or the Czech Republic would actually need defending seemed remote.’
Already on Washington’s agenda even before the fall of the USSR, the expansion of Nato was treated as a given from 1994 onwards, the only question being how to make the Kremlin swallow it – to ‘get the Russians to eat their spinach’, as Victoria Nuland, then chief of staff to Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, put it. (Digestive metaphors seem to be a feature of the Foggy Bottom mentalité: Madeleine Albright later referred to the need to ‘minimise Russian heartburn’.) The Yeltsin government several times floated the idea of joining Nato, but Russian membership was never seriously considered. The ‘Partnership for Peace’ launched in 1994, the Permanent Joint Council set up in 1997 and the Nato-Russia Council that replaced it in 2002 seemed to provide avenues for cooperation between Moscow and the alliance. But as the Russians quickly realised, they were alternatives to membership rather than stepping stones to it. When Putin asked Clinton at a 2000 summit how he would respond to Russia’s joining the alliance, Clinton apparently looked desperately to the advisers flanking him: Albright ‘pretended that she was looking at a fly on the wall’, National Security Adviser Sandy Berger ‘did not react at all’, so Clinton was reduced to saying he would ‘personally’ – a word he repeated three times, to be on the safe side – support it. All of these facts are in Conradi’s account but, strangely, he arrives at the opposite conclusion to the one his narrative suggests: ‘successive US presidents from Clinton through to George W. Bush to Obama,’ he writes, ‘had made a point of trying to integrate Russia into the Western world.’ Given Conradi’s attempt to be fair-minded overall, this reversion to standard ideological assumptions seems especially unfortunate.
Part of the reason there has been no place for Russia inside the Euro-Atlantic order is that, despite its weakness in the post-Soviet period, it nonetheless remained too large to be absorbed comfortably – especially in a system that revolved around a single, superordinate power. The paradox of Russia’s recent resurgence is that, for all its refusals to fall into line with Washington’s priorities, it is still in no position to mount a frontal challenge to the West. In terms of military might, economic weight and ideological reach, Russia is no match for any of the larger Nato member states, let alone the whole alliance combined. The collapse of the planned economy sent all of the former USSR – already lagging behind the West on any number of indicators – into an economic depression that lasted a decade. In 1999, Putin said that it would take 15 years of rapid growth for Russia to draw level with Portugal’s current level of per capita GDP. It reached that milestone in 2011; but by then Portugal was further ahead, and even amid the deep recession sparked by the Eurozone crisis, its GDP per capita was still more than one and a half times that of Russia. In 2015 Russia devoted around a tenth as much money to its armed forces in absolute terms as the US did, and slightly more than the UK; in per capita terms, it spent somewhat less than Germany or Greece. All told, its 2015 military spending came to around 8 per cent of the total for Nato as a whole; the US accounted for almost 70 per cent of that total.
To be sure, Russia still has one of the largest armies in the world in terms of personnel, though many of them are teenage conscripts. But the 2008 war with Georgia among other things revealed how far behind Russia was in terms of technology and military organisation, prompting a major overhaul and upgrading of weapons; Syria has been the testing ground for some of these new-look forces. Yet what allows Moscow to pose a military threat to its neighbours is not so much the scale or strength of its armies as its readiness to use force in pursuit of its policy goals. This was what enabled it effectively to call Nato’s bluff by invading Georgia in 2008 – causing alarm in Central and Eastern European capitals about the solidity of the alliance’s security guarantees, especially the commitment to ‘collective defence’ in Article 5 of its charter. But the rapid resort to force is in itself an indication of the much cruder means at Russia’s disposal, a sign of its inability to secure the outcomes it wants either through diplomatic persuasion or through economic pressures or inducements. As Trenin observes, ‘the obvious asymmetry in power and status between Russia and the United States leads Moscow to elect the field which it finds more comfortable – military action.’
The Ukraine crisis clearly showed these dynamics in action. As Trenin again points out, the EU was the prime mover in Western policy towards Ukraine, but it was shockingly cavalier in its approach. Brussels ‘failed to appreciate the geopolitical, economic and even psychological importance of Ukraine to the Russian leadership and people and pursued its Eastern Partnership project without much thinking about its wider implications’; then, when the crisis deepened, it ‘essentially withdrew to the background’ as Washington stepped in. This time, the aggressiveness of the Kremlin’s response was in part driven by fear that the Maidan would encourage protesters at home. But equally important was Moscow’s awareness that although it had decided that it couldn’t allow Ukraine to become more closely integrated with the EU or join Nato, it lacked both the resources to make Kiev a genuinely better offer and the power to convince the West not to absorb Ukraine into its sphere of influence. The annexation of Crimea and subsequent Russian support for separatists in the Donbass served a number of purposes, not least boosting Putin’s domestic popularity at a time of heightened confrontation with the West; but these were tactical improvisations rather than part of a long-held plan to dismember Ukraine. The moves were also intended to block Ukraine’s accession to Nato by turning significant portions of the country into either a warzone or contested territory. In this they may have succeeded – though President Poroshenko recently announced plans to hold a referendum on Nato membership – but the country has definitively left Russia’s sphere of influence, and there can be little doubt that events in Ukraine since 2013 have been a huge strategic and political defeat for Putin.
They are also a watershed in a larger sense: they mark the final demise of the fantasy of Russian integration or alliance with the West. As Trenin puts it, ‘that window is permanently closed.’ The idea had been progressively eroded over the previous decade and a half, and the return of Putin to the presidency in 2012 brought a strident nationalism increasingly at odds with a pro-Western stance. But it is only recently that Russia seems to have given up on the Westernising fantasy entirely. Its official ‘foreign policy concept’ from February 2013 described Russia as ‘an integral and inseparable part of European civilisation’, and made it clear that priority would be given ‘to relations with the Euro-Atlantic states which, besides geography, economy and history, have common deep-rooted civilisational ties with Russia’. Only in the next iteration of that document, in December 2016, did these allusions disappear. What has taken their place is a much stronger emphasis on ‘Eurasian integration processes’. The immediate reference is to Moscow’s project for an EEC-style trade bloc composed of Russia plus several former Soviet states, but behind it lurks the notion, increasingly fashionable in Muscovite policymaking circles over the past few years, of Russia as the core of a Eurasian ‘civilisation’, distinct from its European, Asian or North American neighbours. The idea is in essence a reactionary one, dedicated to the preservation of an obscurely defined complex of ‘cultural traditions’ and ‘values’ derived largely from various religious traditions and shrouded in layers of myth-making and national messianism, not to mention 19th-century race thinking. Much of this is, sadly, central to its appeal. But Eurasianism’s recent rise to prominence is not simply a matter of Russia turning right: it is also an attempt to fill the ideological void left by the pro-Western idea as Russia’s relations with the West deteriorate. If Russia has indeed given up on alliance with or integration with the West, what are its alternatives? Hidden for much of the post-Cold War period, the questions raised by Russia’s position in the world, both in a literal, geographical sense and in strategic terms, have re-emerged with particular urgency since the Ukraine crisis.
What, then, is Russia’s place within the US-dominated international order, and what role will it play in the future? Despite its brevity, Trenin’s book has the most to say about what might lie ahead, and his judgments are level-headed. Though there is still plenty of potential for conflict, he argues that many of the most widespread anxieties about the Kremlin’s intentions are unfounded. Russia, he writes,
has no resources and no real will to re-create its Eurasian empire … it has no ambition to conquer neighbouring EU/Nato member states, thus risking a war with the US; its brand of authoritarianism is a domestic, not an export product; its state-dominated economic system is not a model for others to emulate; its ideology is nationalistic, not international; and its capacity to infiltrate Western societies is very modest.
Underpinning Trenin’s assessment here is a profound historical shift he has described in such previous books as The End of Eurasia (2002) and Post-Imperium (2011), in which the turbulence of the 1990s and the authoritarian turn of the 2000s appear as passing phases in a painful but necessary process of coming to terms with Russia’s new self – post-Communist but also, for the first time in five hundred years, no longer imperial. Though the collapse of the USSR was experienced by many Russians as a diminution, accompanied by an abrupt demotion in the ranking of global powers, Trenin still thinks that Russia’s sheer size and its large and well-educated population, not to mention its nuclear arsenal and natural resources, will make it ‘an influential world player’ for some time to come.
Trenin sees Russia as occupying a potentially ‘pivotal’ position in an international system destined to be dominated by the US and China: by aligning with one of Washington or Beijing it could tilt the balance against the other, and by forming alliances with other states it may be able to create a counterweight to both. Trenin’s choice of metaphor recalls Halford Mackinder’s 1904 description of ‘Euro-Asia’ as the ‘geographical pivot of history’, but his projected future of great-power balancing also bears some resemblance to 19th-century inter-imperial blocs and rivalries. Kremlin strategists, too, may have something like this in mind when they refer to a coming ‘multipolar’ or ‘polycentric’ international order, which will apparently emerge after the ‘unipolar’ moment of US dominance has passed. The deepening disaster of Western intervention in the Middle East, and Russia’s apparent ability to change the course of the conflict in Syria – its bombs taking a massive civilian toll of their own – are seen in Moscow as portents of a global power shift in the making. But for now, any post-American world seems a long way off, leaving Russia hovering in a kind of geopolitical and historical limbo.
What happens in this long interregnum depends to some extent on the fate of the current system of political rule in Russia – whether under Putin or his eventual successors – since, as Trenin observes, the Kremlin’s domestic fortunes have become ever more closely bound up with its foreign policy choices. But it also depends greatly on what the West does. Since November, there has been a great deal of speculation about a possible US turn towards Russia. In late January, Putin and Trump reportedly discussed co-operation against Islamic State; but this would be an alliance of convenience rather than a step towards realising Putin’s long-standing dream of a global ‘anti-terrorist’ coalition – though it could certainly bring even more suffering to the Middle East in the meantime. Similarly, if the Trump administration does decide, even in the wake of the Flynn fiasco, to strike a deal with Moscow over Ukraine or soften the sanctions regime, it might benefit the Kremlin but it wouldn’t necessarily signal a more durable realignment. Whatever favours the Russians may have asked of Trump’s campaign team, and whatever gruesome personal chemistry there may be between the two presidents, it is the basic power imbalance between their countries that governs strategic calculations on both sides. The US enjoys accumulated advantages that enable it either to attend to or ignore Russian interests as it pleases. Russia, meanwhile, retains enough of its great-power habits of mind to resent this state of affairs, and has proved more than willing to deploy force to act on that sentiment, though it can’t by itself alter the underlying balance of power. Unless and until these conditions change, more clashes are likely, and they could occur anywhere along Russia’s vast periphery, or in the Middle East yet again. From the standpoint of a unipolar world in which the single superpower is permanently at war – currently bombing seven countries at once – it’s easy to imagine that a multipolar world would be an improvement. But the transition between the two could be long and bleak, and multipolarity too could be destructive in its own way. Those already hoping the future won’t look like Fallujah or Mosul will have to hope it doesn’t look like Donetsk