TRANSATLANTİC TRANQUİLİTY
w the U.S., UK, and EU can renew a special
relationship.
Europe was gripped by the shocking events that
unfolded in Washington, D.C. as Congress met to fulfil its solemn
responsibilities under the Constitution to count the Electoral College votes
that would confirm Joseph Biden as President of the United States. While some had
thought there was a serious danger that the U.S. Capitol could be a target
after the rallying calls of recent weeks, the events of January 6, 2021 mainly
surprised and dismayed those watching across the Atlantic.
Now, as horror turns to anger that an outgoing U.S.
President could have played a part in events that led to a mob terrorising
people and destroying property, statements from European leaders have reflected
their hope to see a return to more normal relations. In so doing, they look to
President-elect Biden, whose markedly different tone in responding to these
terrible events offered a glimpse into a future where Europe can feel more at
ease with its most valuable partner.
Some, like Hungary and Poland, had found common cause
with a populist President Trump, who was prepared to be tough on Brussels and
to push sovereignty of individual states above collective action. Slovenia, a
small beautiful country with its own fairy tale castle, had hoped for a visit
from their most famous export, Melania Trump, husband in tow. Some of Trump’s
supporters in Europe have roundly condemned the violence but exonerated the
U.S. president, either by saying his supporters were too “exuberant”, or that
the election of President-elect Biden was “suspicious.”
Adam Schultz
/ Biden for President (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)
But for the rest, there was a hope that the special
relationship between Europe and the United States might return, and that an
American President might once again champion the values and ideals of a strong
transatlantic bond.
Nowhere is that relationship regarded more importantly
than in London. Ever since Winston Churchill declared in a 1946 speech that the
relationship between Britain and the United States was “special,” British Prime
Ministers’ relations with their U.S. counterparts have been judged on the
spectrum of “specialness.” Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan claimed the
crown, with only Tony Blair and George W. Bush snapping at their heels for the
title. Others were more mediocre relationships, like David Cameron and Barack
Obama, or John Major and Bill Clinton. It mattered more to some than others:
John Major’s focus was much more on Europe, Harold Wilson on keeping Britain
out of Vietnam. But regardless, none have wanted the relationship to be weak,
and all postwar Prime Ministers sought to keep it in good shape, not least
because the U.S. and UK share the world’s largest bilateral foreign direct
investment partnership.
For the current UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, the
task is to find ways to engage the United States so that he ends up in the
right part of the spectrum. Having had good relations with Trump is not a great
criterion for success with a Biden administration, but to be fair, Johnson’s
views have varied. Five years ago, he described candidate Trump as “betraying a
quite stupefying ignorance that makes him frankly unfit to hold the office of
president of the United States” when confronting Trump’s remarks on supposed
“no go areas” for non-Muslims in London.
Official
White House Photo by Shealah Craighead
However, for the past four years, both men have
professed admiration for the other. Many comparisons have put Johnson’s way of
working in the same mould as Trump’s, albeit in a more subdued form, and some
around Johnson would have much preferred a second Trump term. Until now at
least. UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace explained recently that he would miss
Donald Trump because he was quite a good friend to Britain. There were not many
capitals of Europe where that sentiment would find an echo, and hardly any
British politicians who would be repeating their previously positive views.
Johnson’s own statements reflect the need to keep the
special relationship as special as possible. This is high on the list of 2021
resolutions for the UK Government, especially as the country has left the EU.
The usefulness of the UK to the U.S. as a bridge to Europe has now disappeared
– although, in truth, it has been overrated in recent years. (Note the strength
of the relationship between Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whom he
regarded as his closest international partner.)
President Barack
Obama talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and UK Prime Minister David
Cameron at a G8 dinner in Deauville, France on May 26, 2011.
Official
White House Photo by Pete Souza
Johnson needs to develop not just the special nature
of the relationship, but its indispensable nature as well. Primarily that means
demonstrating clearly that a decision to leave the EU is not a decision to
leave the international stage, nor to damage links across the Atlantic. For the
United States, there are opportunities to bring the UK and EU closer together
on areas of policy that are important for American interests.
Here are four areas that could afford the U.S. strong
and unconditional support from the UK, and also fulfil the UK Government’s
desire to put a “Global Britain” stamp on its actions. They are also
opportunities for the EU, U.S. and UK to collaborate closely as a triumvirate –
and a means to heal some of the wounds created by the rhetoric and reality of
the brutal separation of the UK from the EU.
The NATO Reflection Process: New
Prospects for Partnership
In December 2019, NATO’s Summit in London decided to
begin a consultation on the organisation’s future. A small independent group of experts was
appointed, and received a variety of submissions, covering relations with China
and Russia, climate change and cybersecurity, alongside the processes of
decision-making within the organisation. At the end of November 2020, without
fanfare, these experts reported back with a series of recommendations. “Nothing
basic about the role [of NATO] has changed,” their report was keen to point
out, with a focus on “military strength and political solidarity” at its core.
NATO would, for example, continue with its deterrence and dialogue approach to
Russia but would devote more energy to China and the importance of climate
change as a major security risk. On process, it wanted more meetings of foreign
ministers and better transatlantic consultations on major strategic and
political issues.
NATO had been, in its own terms, the ‘most successful
alliance” – and the UK Government (and Labour opposition) would endorse that
view. While there has been a longstanding view that the EU required too much
loss of sovereignty for UK Eurosceptics to stomach, there has been no serious
suggestion that Britain should leave NATO.
President
Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at NATO's 70th
anniversary in Watford, UK, on December 4, 2019.
Official
White House Photo by Shealah Craighead
Intergovernmentalism, arguably, is more real in the EU
decision-making on foreign affairs than in NATO, where U.S. dominance is the
most important determinant of action. But for the UK, close alliance with the
United States on defence and security matters is a key element of the
relationship. Cameron’s failure in 2013 to persuade the UK parliament to
support the U.S. on Syria is regarded as a massive failure of his government
not easily forgotten on either side of the Atlantic. Support for U.S. action in
Iraq cost Blair’s domestic reputation dearly, blurring public perception of
many of the extraordinary achievements of his time in office, though he remains
much admired in Washington, D.C.
The decision by the UK to increase defence expenditure
is a potent signal to NATO, and to the United States in particular, that
Britain will remain a steadfast partner and determined member of the alliance.
This also will manifest itself in policies on Russia and China, in support of
renewed U.S. efforts on climate change led by the indefatigable John Kerry (the
newly appointed Special Presidential Envoy for climate change), as well as in
cybersecurity and modernised defence assets – from hardware to people.
For the United States, one of the recommendations from
NATO’s study is a closer working relationship with the EU, which will allow for
complementary activities. For example, in my time in office as High
Representative/Vice President for Foreign Affairs and Security, the EU worked
on research into Improvised Explosive Devices, [IEDs], as well as helicopter
and mid-air refuelling training. These efforts benefitted EU countries and
NATO, and since that time work to strengthen the relationship has gathered
pace. This will support a strengthened transatlantic relationship and
U.S./UK/EU triangle through an alliance where there is much to gain from
collaboration, and few if any political downsides.
The Iran Nuclear Deal
Over the years I chaired the negotiations with Iran,
an ongoing concern of the Iranian negotiating teams was how far they could
trust the United States to keep their side of the bargain. When the agreement
was concluded in 2015, the election of President Trump seemed an unlikely
outcome. But 15 of the 16 candidates for the Republican nomination had already
indicated that they would either rip up or review the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action [JCPOA] agreed between the P5 plus 1 and Iran. As it turned out,
Iranian fears were well founded. President Trump stuck to his election promise
to pull out of the agreement, ratcheting up sanctions in the hope of forcing
the Iranian regime to crumble.
The author,
Baroness Catherine Ashton, with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Vienna, Austria, on November 20, 2014.
State
Department
This posed a dilemma for the five other countries in
the JCPOA. The deal did not belong to the United States, but without its
endorsement, the rest of the P5 plus 1 found it extremely difficult, if not impossible,
to fulfil their side of the bargain. For Iran, the prize of the deal had been
the return of assets and, more importantly, the prospect of a strong economy –
delivering President Rouhani’s election promises of strong economic growth.
With U.S. sanctions preventing or deterring American and European business from
any form of economic links with Iran, the prospect of a brighter economic
future collapsed. For the E3 partners (Britain, France and Germany) and the EU
as a whole, it took some determination not to let the deal quietly languish,
and instead to forcefully declare they would stay within it.
President-elect Biden’s administration will need to
consider a range of factors, including how to get longevity into a deal that he
can guarantee for only four years using Presidential powers, and addressing
regional concerns about Iran’s activities. He has Jake Sullivan (the incoming
National Security Advisor, and a veteran of the JCPOA negotiations) and Antony
Blinken (Biden’s nominee for Secretary of State) to support him, perhaps
through parallel processes on the JCPOA and regional issues, as well as working
with a hostile Congress to build support for their proposals.
In doing this, Biden will have a supportive EU to rely
on. They have a big role to play in delivering economic opportunities for Iran
if business can be convinced that they are not jeopardising their future
relations with the United States nor risking sanctions. And within the EU, the
new U.S. president will be able to rely on the E3, especially if he is able to
convince them that the United States is determined to stay the course in
finding a diplomatic solution.
Climate Change
November 1, 2021 sees the opening of the 26th UN
Climate Change Conference in Scotland. It is a huge opportunity for Prime
Minister Johnson to show his leadership on an issue of vital importance to the
USA, EU and the planet. The UK became the first major economy to legislate for
net zero emissions by 2050, last year, and is pushing for practical advances in
achieving that goal – something the Prime Minister will no doubt wish to
highlight in his speech in Glasgow.
For John Kerry, the months before the conference are
an opportunity to show the United States is back in the driving seat. He can
get agreements on lower emissions in place, or ready to be endorsed. He will
want to show American leadership returning, stronger than ever, and to
prominently put the U.S. at the heart of action in Glasgow.
Kerry has a lot to do, but he will find huge support
from Johnson, and from the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The EU
has released its ambitious Green Deal with a plan for a 55 percent cut in
greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, on the way to net-zero by 2050. Its plans
also include proposals on transport, farming, biodiversity and building
renovation. Conscious of the difference in the economies across the EU, it has
provided for large transitional payments to those areas of the EU that are most
dependent on fossil fuels.
This is an area of policy that there is no doubt that
the UK will want to find common cause with the United States, with NATO, and
with the EU. With U.S. leadership, there is an opportunity to build a strong
transatlantic alliance to make the conference a success and take forward its
conclusions.
Relations with China
Whatever relations were like with China when
President-elect Biden was Vice President, they are different now. Biden is seen
to favour tougher policies towards a China that under Xi Jinping has taken a
different direction. Concerns about China’s policies are reflected in the new
EU strategy on China with its focus on democracy, rule of law, human rights,
alongside achieving reciprocal benefits in its relationship, both economic and
political. The same concerns are reflected in the debates in London, which has
moved away from the strong engagement of the Cameron premiership to a more
sceptical approach. Debates on the shocking revelations of the plight of the
Uighur people, who are subject to slave labour in Xinjiang, have been taken up
in Parliament amid calls for tougher responses.
An EU-China
meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; European
Council President Charles Michel; German Chancellor Angela Merkel; French
President Emmanuel Macron, and Chinese President Xi Jinping on December 30,
2020.
European
Commission / Lukasz Kobus
The UK is especially concerned about the promises that
China has made to protect human rights in Hong Kong – promises that London
negotiated with Beijing less than 30 years ago. But, of course, the UK faces
greater challenges in developing a policy focused on values and concerns as a
lone state, removed from its links with the world’s largest trading bloc. It
must try to navigate a bilateral economic relationship without the shelter of a
huge economy and solidarity with 27 other countries.
Along with the United States and the EU, Britain will
want to find the balance between strong opposition to China’s actions towards
both Hong Kong and the Uighur people, and collaboration on climate change and
economic ties on the other. For everyone concerned, this will be difficult, but
China policy points to yet another example of a triumvirate approach that could
add greater strength to each.
A New Voyage Together
As 2021 arrives, there is hope and anticipation on both sides of the Atlantic that the transatlantic relationship will become stronger over the next few years. There are wounds to be healed – and things that cannot be unsaid – from the United States to parts of Europe, and from the UK to Brussels and vice versa. The shocking events that saw democracy threatened at the heart of the United States is a sobering call to all who believe in it that the only future is one in which we stand together.
U.S.
President Donald J. Trump, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte; European
Council President Donald Tusk; Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; UK Prime
Minister Boris Johnson; German Chancellor Angela Merkel; Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau and French President Emmanuel Macron at an August 2019
G7 working session in Biarritz, France.
Official
White House Photo by Shealah Craighead.
While nobody expects a return to business as usual,
there is hope that in a post COVID-19 world, there will be closer cooperation
from those who share the same values and ideals if we are to build a better
future. There are no issues facing us that we can resolve alone.
Baroness Catherine Ashton served as the European Union's first High
Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy from 2009 to 2014. She
is Global Europe Chair at the Wilson Center, a Senior Policy Advisor to Chatham
House, and a consultant to the Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue.
On behalf of the UN Security Council,
she chaired the negotiations that ultimately resulted in the agreement with
Iran on its nuclear programme. She also worked with the Prime Ministers of
Serbia and Kosovo leading to the Brussels agreement, for which they were all
nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Previously, she was the first female EU
Commissioner for Trade.
Prior to becoming an EU commissioner,
she was a UK government minister in the House of Lords. She served in the
Education and Justice departments, before being promoted to the Cabinet as
Leader of the House of Lords.
Cover Photograph: President Ronald
Reagan with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at Camp David on December 22,
1984. (National Archives and Records Administration)
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