How Many Bridges Can Turkey's Erdogan Burn? WPR

 

How Many Bridges Can Turkey’s Erdogan Burn?

April 19, 2021

Since his sweeping overhaul of Turkey's political system in 2017, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his near-total control over the country. Simultaneously, he has pursued an adventurous and bellicose foreign policy across the Mediterranean region, putting Ankara increasingly at odds with its NATO allies and the United States. How many bridges can Erdogan afford to burn? Learn more when you subscribe to World Politics Review (WPR).

Since his sweeping overhaul of Turkey’s political system in 2017, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his near-total control over the country. Despite the worst electoral setback of Erdogan’s career in the Istanbul mayoral election in June 2019, as well as a tailspinning economy exacerbated by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, he continues to maintain his grip on power, even if he must destabilize Turkey’s democracy to do so. At the same time, Erdogan has pursued an adventurous and bellicose foreign policy across the Mediterranean region, putting Ankara increasingly at odds with its NATO allies. After Turkey’s purchase of a Russian air-defense system in July 2019, Washington suspended Turkish involvement in the F-35 next-generation fighter plane program. In October 2019, the Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria targeting Syrian Kurdish militias highlighted the disconnect between the U.S. Congress—which fiercely defended the Syrian Kurds, America’s principal partner on the ground in the fight against the Islamic State—and former U.S. President Donald Trump, who seemed oblivious to their plight and subsequently received Erdogan at the White House. Turkey’s repeated incursions into waters in the Eastern Mediterranean claimed by Cyprus, as well as its standoffs with Greek and French naval vessels in the region, have further raised tensions and alarmed observers.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, points toward the city center as he speaks with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during a meeting in Ankara, May 6, 2019 (Presidential Press Service via AP Images).

With U.S. President Joe Biden now promising to restore a more conventional approach to U.S. foreign policy and alliance management, Erdogan has more recently sought to smooth relations with Turkey’s allies and neighbors. But none of the underlying causes of tension have been resolved so far, meaning that a return to confrontation cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, Turkey’s involvement in Syria’s civil war has increased Ankara’s leverage there, but has at times pitted Erdogan against Russian President Vladimir Putin in the military and diplomatic competition to shape the end game of that conflict. Ankara’s involvement in the Libyan civil war on behalf of the United Nations-recognized Government of National Accord similarly put Turkey at odds with both Russia, which is supporting the forces of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, and Ankara’s European partners, who are seeking to enforce an arms embargo on the country. Most recently, Turkey’s political and military support of Azerbaijan in the latest outbreak of fighting with Armenia over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region has once again put it at the heart of a conflict with direct implications for Russia’s national security interests. WPR has covered Turkey in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. Will Ankara continue to drift into Russia’s orbit, or will tensions in Syria and Libya derail efforts to improve ties? Will Turkey accept a diplomatic offramp to its differences with Greece and France in the Eastern Mediterranean or continue to seek confrontation? Will President Joe Biden seek to mend U.S.-Turkey ties or rein Erdogan in? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

Latest Coverage Our Most Recent Coverage Turkey and Egypt Open the Door to a Diplomatic Thaw Turkey and Egypt confirmed in March that they’d had their first diplomatic contact since breaking off relations in 2013, against a backdrop of growing calm in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The EU and U.S. should encourage a rapprochement between the two rivals, which would be a stabilizing influence on the Middle East and North Africa. Domestic Politics and Erdogan’s Autocratic Tendencies Though the 2017 vote to reform the constitution and concentrate extensive power in the presidency solidified Erdogan’s hold on power, he had already leveraged a failed coup attempt in 2016 to crack down on journalists, opposition leaders, academics, judges and members of the security forces. To build popular support, Erdogan has fanned Muslim nationalism and drawn criticism for undermining Turkey’s secularism. Cracks in his electoral coalition are beginning to show, but it’s too soon to know whether or not they represent a serious challenge. How the coronavirus pandemic strengthened Erdogan’s hand, in How COVID-19 Is Handing Erdogan a Political Lifeline in Turkey Why a recently launched political party could spell trouble for Erdogan, in Turkey’s Former Economy Czar Looks to Unseat Erdogan and the AKP How a canal megaproject in Istanbul could backfire for Erdogan, in Could a Multibillion-Dollar Canal Be Erdogan’s Undoing in Turkey? Why winning the Istanbul mayoral election was just a first step for Turkey’sbeleaguered opposition, in Turkey’s Opposition, Buoyed by Its Win in Istanbul, Faces a Long Road Ahead

Foreign Policy and Ties With the U.S. & Europe Ankara’s ties with the EU continue to deteriorate, and Erdogan has taken to calling European leaders “Nazi remnants” and “fascists.” Relations with Washington have also frayed over Ankara’s purchase of the advanced Russian missile system, the arrest of U.S. citizens in Turkey and disagreement over the Iran nuclear deal. But the arrival of the Biden administration could provide an opportunity to reset ties with Washington, even as the EU’s reliance on Turkish cooperation to block Syrian immigrants and refugees from reaching Europe gives Erdogan a trump card over Brussels. Why the change in administrations in Washington won’t be a panacea for relations with Turkey, in Turkey’s Frayed Ties With the West Are Unlikely to Improve Under Biden How Ankara’s purchase of a Russian air defense system will continue to be an irritant in U.S.-Turkey relations, in Why There’s No Easy Solution to the U.S.-Turkey Dispute Over the S-400 What the outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh war means for Turkey’s role in the Caucasus, in A Fragile Peace in Nagorno-Karabakh Leaves Russia and Turkey in Charge—For Now Why Erdogan’s provocations aren’t going over well with Turkey’s European allies, in Europe Is Losing Patience With Erdogan’s Islamist Rhetoric Turkey’s Role in Syria and Libya Turkey positioned itself as a primary backer of opposition forces in the Syrian war, but it also used the conflict to launch attacks on Syrian Kurds. Ankara says they are allied with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the political and military movement involved in a decades-long conflict with the Turkish regime. Meanwhile, its efforts to protect client rebel militias in northwest Syria have created tensions with Syrian government forces and their Russian backers. And Ankara’s role in the Libyan civil war, where a recent cease-fire in support of a transitional political settlement seems to be holding, pitted it against Moscow in yet another theater of conflict. Why the war in Libya is turning into a nightmare scenario for NATO, in Libya’s Expanding Proxy War May Be the Ultimate Test of NATO’s Resilience Why Erdogan would do well to extricate Turkey from the Syrian conflict, in After the U.S., Turkey Should Be Next to Leave Syria How Erdogan misjudged the consequences of Turkey’s Idlib incursion, in An Isolated Erdogan Learns the Cost of Hubris in Idlib Why Turkey is targeting Assad’s forces in northwest Syria—and why it might backfire, in Escalating to Deescalate? Why Turkey Is Targeting Syria’s Army