A Realist Reset for US-Saudi Relations
U.S. interests argue for maintaining ties to Saudi
Arabia despite clear evidence that the Crown Prince approved the murder of
Jamal Khashoggi.
Article by Richard N. Haass
Originally published at Project Syndicate
March 1, 2021
The report issued Friday by
the US intelligence community on the murder
of Saudi journalist and permanent US resident Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey mostly
confirms what we already knew. The operation to capture or kill Khashoggi was
approved by Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and in many ways
already the Kingdom’s most powerful person. MBS, as he is widely known, wanted
Khashoggi dead, both to rid himself of a nettlesome critic and to intimidate
other would-be critics of his rule.
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We are unlikely to
find a smoking gun, but MBS’s fingerprints are all over Khashoggi’s killing.
There is not only abundant photographic and communications evidence that it was
carried out by people close to the Crown Prince. There is also the simple
reality that nothing of significant political magnitude happens in Saudi Arabia
without MBS’s authorization.
Former President
Donald Trump’s administration looked the other way at the time, as it often did
in the face of flagrant human rights violations. Moreover, Trump wanted to
avoid a rupture with MBS, whose anti-Iranian policies were appreciated and who
was seen as central to his government’s willingness to purchase armaments from
US manufacturers.
President Joe Biden’s
administration feels differently. It has already distanced the United States
from involvement in Saudi military operations in Yemen. And human rights are
occupying a central role in its approach to the world. The fact that Biden has
not communicated directly with MBS, and instead called the ailing King Salman,
underscores Biden’s desire to separate the US relationship with the Kingdom
from the relationship with the Crown Prince.
But this separation
will likely prove impossible to sustain. The US is not in a position to prevent
his ascension to the throne when his father dies. Any attempt to do so would
almost certainly fail, in the process triggering a nationalist backlash,
causing domestic instability, or both. And the fact is that the US has many
reasons to maintain a working relationship with an individual who will likely
lead for decades a country that is critical to setting world energy prices,
containing Iran, frustrating terrorism, and, if it elects to do so, promoting
Middle East peace.
Saudi Arabia is hardly
the only country in the world where the US has to deal with a flawed leader.
The Biden administration just signed an important nuclear arms control
agreement with Russia, even though President Vladimir Putin tried to kill – and
has now imprisoned – his main
political rival. The principal difference between him and the Saudi
Crown Prince in this instance is their competence at eliminating opponents.
Or consider China.
Biden administration officials have accused the Chinese government of carrying
out genocide against the Uighur minority. If so, they are accusing Chinese
President Xi Jinping of genocide, as there is no way what is taking place in
Xinjiang province could happen without his approval. Yet Biden recently spoke
with Xi and is sure to meet with him regularly to discuss North Korea, trade,
climate change, and much else.
Don’t get me wrong.
Biden is not wrong to strike deals with Putin and Xi. US strategic and economic
interests demand it, and America’s ability to influence Russian and Chinese
behavior at home is limited. The US can and should criticize and sanction, but
it would be feckless and self-defeating to hold the entire bilateral relationship
with Russia or China hostage to their domestic policies. Foreign policy is not
about virtue signaling; it is about advancing interests. Prioritizing and
compartmentalizing are essential.
In the case of MBS,
such realism might lead to opportunity. The promise of meetings with Biden
administration officials should be traded for a firm commitment that he will
never again target a political opponent in this way and that he will release
imprisoned human rights advocates.
Bringing the Saudis
into diplomacy might preserve the possibility of a two-state solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The United Arab Emirates agreed to normalize
relations with Israel only when Israel agreed not to annex occupied Palestinian
territory for at least three years. MBS reportedly is ready to build bridges to
Israel, but his father is not, and much of the Saudi population might resist.
Even an Israeli government committed to expanding Jewish settlements in the
Occupied Territories might find it difficult to resist curbing them in exchange
for peace and diplomatic ties with the Kingdom.
It should be a long
time before the now publicly-exposed MBS is invited to the US, much less to
visit the Oval Office. But refusing to deal with him is not the answer.
Pragmatic, conditional relations with him could bring protection and freedom to
many Saudis, make possible collaboration to impede Iran’s nuclear ambitions,
wind down the war in Yemen, and advance prospects for Israeli-Palestinian
peace. None of this would bring Khashoggi back to life, but it would give added
meaning to his death.
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