A Persistent Crisis in Central America (WPR)

 

A Persistent Crisis in Central America

March 26, 2021

Violence and corruption in Central America is causing a wave of outward migration. The Trump administration's restrictive measures and pressure on regional governments did nothing to address the root causes of the problem, which the Biden administration has now pledged to tackle. Meanwhile, efforts at reform across the region face opposition from entrenched interests that benefit from the status quo. Learn more when you subscribe to World Politics Review (WPR).

For years, Central America has contended with the violence and corruption stemming from organized crime and the drug trade. More recently, the countries of the region also found themselves in U.S. President Donald Trump’s line of fire, due to the many desperate Central Americans who make their way across Mexico to seek asylum at the United States’ southern border. The steady stream of outward migration is driven by ongoing turmoil, particularly in Nicaragua and the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The three Northern Triangle countries rank among the most violent in the world, a legacy of the civil wars in El Salvador and Guatemala, which destabilized security structures and flooded the region with guns. In that context, gangs—often brought back home by deportees from the U.S.—have proliferated, and along with them the drug trade and corruption, fueling increasing lawlessness. Popular unrest has done little to produce political solutions, leading many of the most vulnerable to flee, often banding together in caravans to more safely navigate the treacherous route north.

A demonstrator holds a sign that reads in Spanish “Stop the corrupted” outside the National Assembly in Panama City, Panama, March 11, 2018 (AP photo by Arnulfo Franco).

Trump instrumentalized the highly publicized migrant caravans for domestic political purposes, while also using threatened cuts in U.S. development aid to pressure governments in the region to do more to hamper the outflow and to take in migrants returned from the U.S. border. But his administration did little to help regional governments address the root causes of the crisis—graft and violence. His successor, President Joe Biden, has pledged to return to a more conventional approach of using development aid and high-level support for anti-corruption efforts to address the region’s political, economic and security deficits. But the situation on the southern U.S. border since Biden took office suggests the issue will remain no less of a challenge for his administration. In places where it seemed that popular movements and a new generation of leaders might make a difference, like Guatemala and El Salvador, entrenched interests have done their best to maintain the status quo, much as they have in the face of reformist efforts in other countries in the region. And El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, has more recently raised fears of a return to authoritarianism due to his politicization of the military. WPR has covered the Central America crisis in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next there. Will popular anti-corruption movements survive the backlash against them by the region’s entrenched political interests? What effect will the coronavirus pandemic have on the factors driving outmigration? How effective will the Biden administration’s approach to the region be? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

Latest Coverage After Two Years of Posturing, El Salvador’s Bukele Must Now Govern As expected, voters in El Salvador handed President Nayib Bukele’s party a landslide victory in legislative elections last Sunday. Preliminary results suggest the Nuevas Ideas party—New Ideas—gained a two-thirds majority in the legislature, allowing Bukele to govern with near-total control. Politics The region may be at a political crossroads, driven by citizens’ frustrated with the seemingly perpetual corruption and violence. Panama and El Salvador handed the reins to politicians promising dramatic reforms, but with little progress to show from it. And the administrations in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are all facing challenges to their political legitimacy. That could either fuel transformation or provoke a backlash. What drove the ruling party’s defeat in Belize’s latest elections, in In Belize, Corruption and COVID-19 Imperil the Ruling Party’s Reelection Hopes How El Salvador’s president is using the pandemic to undermine the country’s civil liberties and institutions, in Bukele’s COVID-19 Response Is Undermining the Rule of Law in El Salvador How a data-driven policy initiative undermined public trust in Costa Rica’s government, in Costa Rica’s Alvarado Looks to Move On After a Damaging Privacy Scandal Migrant Crisis and the Northern Triangle In addition to rampant violence, the massive migration from the three Northern Triangle countries is driven by a lack of economic opportunities and the absence of rule of law. By setting increasingly difficult hurdles for Central Americans to enter the United States, though, Washington is increasing the pressure on regional governments—and its Mexican ally, which is currently grappling with the influx of migrants and refugees. Why a strengthened president in El Salvador could spell trouble for Biden, in El Salvador’s Election Just Complicated Biden’s Migrant Plan Why it won’t be easy for Biden to repair the damage Trump did to America’s border policies, in Biden’s Immigration Imperatives Why Biden’s Central America agenda will be easier said than done, in Biden’s New Approach to Central America Is Welcome, but It Won’t Be Easy Corruption The region is plagued by corruption, often tied to the organized crime syndicates behind the drug trade. Persistent citizen protests and the airing of scandals seem to have little impact on systems that perpetuate graft. And in countries where anti-corruption campaigns scored major victories, like Guatemala, the entrenched interests have fought back. Why corruption is a life or death issue in Honduras, in In Honduras, Corruption Kills Why now is a bad time for Latin America to ease up on corruption, in Latin America’s Anti-Corruption Drive Has Stalled at the Worst Possible Time How corruption is fueling Guatemala’s political crisis, in In Guatemala, Corruption Is at the Heart of an Escalating Political Crisis

Security and Drugs Violence tied to gangs and drug trafficking overshadows the region, but particularly the Northern Triangle countries. Government attempts to clamp down on crime through strict militarized policies have largely failed, while global efforts to reduce drug trafficking through aid programs are undermined by the demand for narcotics from the United States and Europe. How the COVID-19 pandemic is changing the illegal drug trade, in How the Illicit Drug Trade Is Adapting to the Coronavirus Pandemic Why years of reform efforts have failed to solve Honduras’ prison crisis, in In Honduras, ‘Gangs Effectively Control the Prisons’ Why the Honduran president has become a problematic partner for the U.S., in Will Drug Trafficking Charges Shift U.S. Support for Honduras’ Hernandez? Trade Trump used trade as an unlikely weapon in his battle to stop Central American migrants from heading to the United States. But Central American leaders are busy exploring other options. Several countries have cut ties recently with Taiwan, sending a clear signal to Beijing that they are keen to open negotiation channels. Why Congress shouldn’t use preferential trade with Central America as an excuse to raise trade barriers with other developing countries, in U.S. Trade Policy Shouldn’t Pit Developing Countries Against Each Other Why Trump considered kicking three Central American countries out of a long-standing trade agreement, in Trump’s Strangest Trade Idea Yet How China’s Belt and Road Initiative made inroads in Central America, in China is Luring Away Taiwan’s Longtime Partners in Central America and the Caribbean Nicaragua Nicaragua was brought to the brink of a civil war in 2018 over proposed economic reforms. After shelving the measures in a concession to protesters, President Daniel Ortega went on to violently repress the opposition, causing international alarm. Now, however, there is no exit strategy in sight from what has become Nicaragua’s “new normal” of repression. What Ortega’s latest attempt to muzzle the press reveals about his grip on power, in Repressive New Laws in Nicaragua Reveal Ortega’s ‘Growing Insecurity’ How Catholic churches became targets for Ortega’s supporters, in Catholic Churches Are Caught in the Crossfire of Nicaragua’s Political Crisis What Ortega’s crackdown on dissent means for the press, in In Nicaragua, Attacks on Journalists Are Part of Ortega’s Survival Strategy