The U.S. and the
Aftermath of ISIS
By Garrett Nada on December 17, 2020
Garrett Nada December 17 ,2020
Nearly two years after the caliphate’s
collapse, ISIS had some 10,000 fighters challenging U.S. interests in Iraq and
Syria, with the potential to regain control of territory and regenerate
jihadi-run fiefdoms. Without sustained military pressure, ISIS could gain
footholds “in a relatively short period of time,” General Kenneth McKenzie
Jr., the head of U.S. Central Command, warned in August 2020.
In October 2020, the Department of
Homeland Security cautioned that the main threats to U.S. interests were
overseas. “Nevertheless, these groups can adapt quickly and resurge, and
terrorists overseas will continue to probe for vulnerabilities in U.S.
immigration and border security programs,” the agency said in its first annual
risk assessment. The United States also faced
the possibility of domestic attacks by lone wolves inspired by ISIS. The report
noted that calls for attacks had increased since ISIS leader Abu Bakr al
Baghdadi was killed during a U.S. raid in October 2019.
The jihadis have proven resilient
despite ongoing airstrikes and ground operations by the U.S.-led Global
Coalition to defeat ISIS, which consists of more than 75 countries and local
military partners. From August 2014 to October 2020, the coalition launched nearly 35,000 airstrikes in
Iraq and Syria. But ISIS fighters moving freely in small cells evaded capture by moving
into deserts and mountains, especially along the border between
Iraq and Syria. ISIS “continued to consolidate its position in some areas
previously under its control, operating increasingly confidently and openly,”
Vladimir Voronkov, head of the U.N. Office of Counter-Terrorism, told the Security Council on August
24, 2020.
Since the Islamic State lost its Iraqi
territory in November 2017, ISIS has been active in Iraq’s central and northern
provinces, including Anbar, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salah al Din.
ISIS initially launched hit-and-run operations against security forces and
civilians using small arms, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and mortars. In
the second quarter of 2020, it began organizing larger attacks that killed more
than 20 people, which reflected “extensive pre-operational
planning and preparation,” U.S. Central Command reported. In the third quarter
of 2020, ISIS primarily attacked local security forces to
increase its freedom of movement. It usually operated in groups of 15 or fewer.
ISIS attacks in Iraq (July-Sep 2020)
Since the Islamic State fell in Syria
and the caliphate collapsed in March 2019, ISIS launched hundreds of attacks
primarily in the central desert region, in the east near the Iraqi border and
to a lesser extent in the south near the Jordanian border. Nearly half of the
131 attacks in the third quarter of 2020 were in Deir Ezzor Province, in the
east; 13 percent of attacks were in Raqqah Province, which includes the
caliphate’s former capital in the north. The Pentagon warned that ISIS had also
become capable of seizing areas controlled by the Assad
regime. The economic and political conditions in Syria were “as bad as or
worse than those that spawned the original rise of ISIS,” McKenzie said. He
warned that ISIS operated with “more freedom” in Assad territory west of the
Euphrates River and in the central Badia desert.
ISIS attacks in Syria (July-Sep 2020)
In both Iraq and Syria, the U.S.-led
Global Coalition has implemented a holistic strategy against ISIS, including:
·
Killing
or capturing fighters
·
Choking
off the flow of finances
·
Stemming
the flow of foreign fighters to and from Iraq and Syria
·
Countering
ISIS messaging on social media
·
Strengthening
security in prisons and displaced persons camps
·
Providing
stabilization and humanitarian assistance to liberated areas
Stabilization assistance has often
included providing essential services to help communities rebuild.
In Iraq, and to a lesser extent, Syria, the coalition members have
partially funded water infrastructure and refurbishing schools and hospitals.
“The amount of time and resources necessary to address these conditions is
significant,” McKenzie said in August. But COVID-19 and the
“malign influence of Iran in both Iraq and Syria” further impeded the
Coalition’s work, he added.
The United States also helped identify the 2,000 foreign fighters imprisoned
in Syria and 1,000 in Iraq, including Americans, who often
used noms de guerre and hid their nationalities after being
captured or surrendering. On October 1, the Justice Department announced that
the United States had repatriated 27 Americans, including fighters and family
members, from Iraq and Syria, including 10 charged with supporting ISIS. “With
this week’s repatriations, the United States has
brought back every American supporter of ISIS known to be held by the Syrian
Democratic Forces against whom we have charges,” John Demers, Assistant
Attorney General for National Security, said in a statement. The United States
also indicted two British citizens who were members of “The Beatles,” four ISIS
fighters who allegedly played roles in the murder American hostages in Syria.
Post-ISIS Operations in Iraq
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), with air
support from the U.S.-led coalition, captured Mosul, Iraq’s second largest
city, in mid-2017 and Rawa, the last Iraqi town under ISIS control, in late
2017. ISIS was unable to recover from the loss; the need for U.S. air support
waned. Coalition airstrikes plummeted by 88 percent—from 255 in September to 29
in December 2017. Coalition military support shifted to advising and training
Iraqi forces as the war turned into an insurgency by small cells of ISIS
fighters.
U.S. and coalition airstrikes in Iraq
ISIS attacks diminished after it lost
territory. Over a two-year period, between 2017 and 2018, its monthly
attacks fell 75 percent. In 2019, ISIS
operations slightly increased.
·
2017:
5,892 in 2017, or an average of 491 a month
·
2018:
1,476, or an average of 123 per month
·
2019:
1,669, or an average of 139 per month
Fatalities and injuries also fell
significantly after 2017, the State Department reported.
·
2017:
3,000 civilians killed and 4,600 injured
·
2018:
900 civilians killed and 1,600 injured
·
2019:
534 civilians killed and at least 1,121 injured
From mid-2019 to mid-2020, ISIS
attacks escalated against government,
military and civilian targets just as the U.S.-led coalition reduced training
and combat support. By August 2020, it had transferred its portions of eight
bases to the Iraqi military. “The Coalition’s efforts have enabled the Iraqis
to train themselves,” Maj. Gen. Kenneth Ekman, deputy coalition commander, said
on August 23, 2020. The transfer of bases is “part of our campaign plan for the
ISF to secure their own future and defend Iraqi sovereignty.”
In September 2020, the United States
announced a drawdown of almost half its troops –from about 5,200 to 3,000 – “in
recognition of the great progress the Iraqi forces have made,” McKenzie said. “This reduced footprint allows us to
continue advising and assisting our Iraqi partners in rooting out the final
remnants of ISIS in Iraq and ensuring its enduring defeat.”
But the U.S. coalition faced additional
challenges from Shiite militias backed and armed by Iran—some of which had been
de facto allies in fighting ISIS between mid-2014 and early 2019. The
militias—several that were members of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which
government incorporated in 2016—targeted
coalition facilities, convoys and personnel, although most attacks were not
lethal. But the threat diverted military resources from
fighting ISIS.
The coalition also supported stabilization and reconstruction
programs, such as resettling displaced Iraqis and restoring electricity, water,
education and health services. Between 2015 and late 2020, the United States
and 27 of its coalition partners provided more
than $1.4 billion for some 3,000 projects in 31 liberated towns and
districts. But reconstruction was reportedly stymied by Iraq’s inefficient and
corrupt bureaucracy as well as the ongoing ISIS attacks.
Post-ISIS Operations in Syria
Backed by massive coalition airstrikes, the Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) captured the last ISIS stronghold,
Baghouz, a village along the eastern border with Iraq on March 23, 2019. As
ISIS lost its last territory, coalition airstrikes fell from 1,220 strikes in
January 2019 to none in May—because ISIS was not able to regroup in Syria as it
had in Iraq. As of mid-2020, the Pentagon reported that the small ISIS
cells attacked the SDF with small arms and
bombs. The U.S. troop presence declined—from 2,000 in early 2019 to 900 troops by
September 2020.
U.S. and coalition airstrikes in Syria
The main U.S. role was helping the SDF
find and target ISIS leaders in hiding. On October 26, 2019, ISIS leader Abu
Bakr al Baghdadi blew himself up during a joint raid by U.S. special forces and the
SDF. President Trump then outlined a new priority for U.S. troops to secure oil
installations once controlled by ISIS that the SDF seized. “What I intend to
do, perhaps, is make a deal with an Exxon Mobil or one of our great companies
to go in there and do it properly,” he said. He then ordered reduced support for
the SDF. In July 2020, Delta Crescent Energy, headquartered in Delaware, signed a deal with the Autonomous
Administration of Northeast Syria, the local political authority in SDF-held
territory, to upgrade the oil infrastructure and bring the oil to market. U.S.
forces in northeast Syria were securing petroleum infrastructure in northeast
Syria “to deny ISIS access to critical resources and revenue,” the
Pentagon said in August 2020.
ISIS attacks in Iraq and Syria
Unlike in Iraq, the United States
limited support for stabilization projects in Syria. The Trump
administration cut $230 million of aid in August
2018. But it allocated $14 million in 2018 to
sustain existing projects. As of 2020, many projects were in Deir Ezzor
and Raqqa provinces for education, community security, civil society, local
governance, water and waste management. In 2019, it also allocated $50 million to aid Syria’s
religious and ethnic minorities. As of late 2020, the State Department was
still awarding its portion of the funding,
$33.5 million. The remainder was used to support USAID programs.
American Foreign Fighters
The United States also had to deal with
foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria. Between 2011 and 2017, at least 64
Americans joined a jihadi group in Iraq and
Syria, 53 of whom joined ISIS. Many served in combat roles, while others worked
in logistics, finance and running the Islamic State. Twenty-two reportedly died
in Syria. Few Americans rose to senior positions.
By October 2020, the United States had
repatriated 27 Americans from Iraq and Syria. Ten of the 27 returnees were
charged with terrorism-related offenses. The United States may repatriate other
Americans, Assistant Attorney General for National Security Demers implied. “The Department of Justice will
review the facts and circumstances relating to any future detainees and, where
warranted, bring additional charges against others,” he said. The following are
profiles of the nine men and one woman publicly charged by the Justice
Department.
Emraan Ali and Jihad Ali: The father and son joined ISIS in Syria
in 2015. They allegedly received military and religious training from ISIS and
served as fighters. The two men surrendered to the SDF near Baghouz as the
Islamic State collapsed in March 2019. They appeared in court in the Southern
District of Florida on September 30, 2020. They were charged with providing material
support to a terrorist group. Emraan is a naturalized citizen born in Trinidad
and Tobago; his son Jihad was born in New York
Ruslan Maratovich Asainov: Asainov allegedly traveled to
Turkey in December 2013 and continued onto Syria, where he joined ISIS. He
started out as a sniper and eventually became an “emir” responsible for
military training. He was detained by the SDF before being transferred to FBI custody in July
2019. On September 3, 2019, a five-count indictment was filed in a federal
court in Brooklyn against Asainov. The charges included providing material
support to a terrorist group, receiving military training from ISIS and
obstruction of justice.
Warren Christopher Clark: The former substitute teacher and
Muslim convert told NBC News that he traveled to
Syria in June 2015. He offered to work for ISIS as an English teacher. Clark
claimed that he was detained several times for refusing to fight. Clark was
captured by the SDF in January 2019. The indictment against him was unsealed
after he appeared in federal court in Houston on January 25. Clark was charged with attempting to provide
himself as material support to a terrorist organization.
Samantha Marie Elhassani: In 2014, Elhassani helped her
husband and his brother to travel to Syria to join ISIS. She smuggled more than
$30,000 in cash and gold to Hong Kong between November 2014 and April 2015 to
help finance the trip to Syria. Samantha and her husband, Moussa, and their two
children traveled to Syria in 2015. Moussa was
killed in an airstrike in 2017. Elhassani and her children, including two born
in Syria, were captured by the SDF and held in camps until they were extradited
back to Indiana in July 2018. On November 25, 2019, she pleaded guilty to a one-count
Information charging her with concealment of terrorism financing. She was due
to be sentenced in August 2020, but the sentencing was postponed.
Mohamad Jamal Khweis: In December 2015, Khweis left the United
States for Turkey. He crossed into Syria later that month. He went to Raqqa,
where he joined ISIS and agreed to be a suicide bomber. During his two and half
months with ISIS, he participated in religious training, attended lectures,
gave money to ISIS members. He was deployed to Tal Afar, Iraq before he was
detained by Kurdish Peshmerga forces. On October 27, 2017, the former resident
of Alexandria, Virginia was sentenced to 20 years in prison for
providing material support to a terrorist organization.
Omer Kuzu: Omer and his brother, Yusuf, left
Texas for Turkey on October 16, 2014 and later were smuggled across the Syrian
border by ISIS. They participated in five days of physical and weapons training
with 40 other foreign fighters in Mosul, Iraq. The brothers were then to Raqqa,
Syria, where Omer started working in the ISIS telecommunications directorate.
After pledging allegiance to al Baghdadi, he received a monthly stipend and an
AK-47 rifle. Kuzu also took an ISIS bride before deploying to Kobani and Hama.
In March 2019, he and 1,500 suspected ISIS fighters were captured by the SDF.
He was then extradited to the United States. On September 2, 2020, he pled guilty to conspiring to provide
material support to a terrorist group.
Abdelhamid al Madioum: In June 2015, al Madioum and his family
traveled from Minnesota to Casablanca, Morocco, to visit family. In July, he
secretly traveled to Turkey and then to Iraq
and Syria. Al Madioum, a naturalized U.S. citizen from Morocco, allegedly
joined ISIS from mid-2015 until he was captured by the SDF in March 2019. While
in prison, he claimed that he was never an ISIS
fighter and that he had hoped to become a doctor. Al Madioum was extradited to
Minnesota. On September 16, 2020, he was charged with providing material
support to a terrorist organization.
Ibraheem Izzy Musaibli: Musaibli’s family said that he moved from Dearborn,
Michigan to Yemen’s port city of Aden in early 2015 and was then was tricked
into traveling to Syria to study religion and work. “He had NO idea this group
was ISIS,” Musaibli’s brother claimed. But the indictment against Musaibli
alleged that he knowingly joined the terrorist organization in April 2015 and
that he received military training during his three years with ISIS. He was
captured by the SDF and transferred to U.S. custody in July 2018.
In July 2018, Musaibly was charged with providing and attempting
to provide material support to a terrorist organization. On April 10, 2019, he
was charged with additional offenses of conspiring to provide material support
to ISIS, possessing and discharging a machine gun in furtherance of a crime of
violence, and receiving military training from ISIS.
Lirim Sylejmani: In November 2015, Sylejmani, a
naturalized U.S. citizen from Kosovo, traveled from Chicago to Kosovo with his
wife and two children. They continued onto Turkey and then to Syria, where he
joined ISIS. Sylejamni told The New Yorker that
he received some military training but never fought. He spoke to several media outlets about his time with
ISIS after his capture by the SDF in 2019. On September 16, 2020, he was
charged with providing material support to a terrorist organization.
American Victims of ISIS
The United States also tried to seek
justice for the murder of American citizens by ISIS fighters. The Justice
Department sought extradition of two ISIS fighters — Alexanda Kotey and El
Shafee Elsheikh—who held British citizenship and were captured in Iraq. They
were charged with an ISIS hostage scheme
that resulted in the deaths of four Americans—James Foley (2014), Steven
Sotloff (2014), Peter Kassig (2014) and Kayla Mueller (2015) —as well as two
British citizens and two Japanese.
Kotey and Elsheikh were among four
British members of ISIS dubbed “The Beatles” for their accents. Another member
of “The Beatles,” Mohammed Emwazi — better known as “Jihadi John”— beheaded
Foley, Sotloff and British citizens David Haines and Alan Henning in ISIS
videos released in 2014. Emwazi, Kotey and Elsheikh allegedly physically and
psychologically abused the hostages. Emwazi was killed in a U.S. airstrike in
Syria in November 2015. The indictment also said that Kotey and Elsheikh worked
closely with Abu Muhammad al Adnani, a top ISIS commander and chief media
spokesperson who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Syria in August 2016.
Britain agreed to let the United States
try them on condition that the death penalty was not applied. It was the first
time ISIS members were implicated in the deaths of U.S. citizens in a U.S.
court. They appeared in court in Alexandria,
Virginia via videoconference from a nearby detention center on October 7, 2020.
“Our message to other terrorists around the world is this — if you harm
Americans, you will face American arms on the battlefield or American law in
our courtrooms. Either way, you will be pursued to the ends of the earth until
justice is done,” Attorney General William Barr said.
Ashley Lane, a research assistant at the
Woodrow Wilson Center, collected data for this article..
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
GARRETT NADA
Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace in the Center
for Middle East & Africa
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