The failed revolution
Ten years after the Arab Spring, the Middle East and North Africa are the
largest conflict zone in the world. What happened?
By Franz Maget | 03.12.2020
Reuters Egyptian people protesting on Tahrir square
during a so-called 'million march' in 2011
Read this article in German.
The Arab Spring began ten years ago
with the self-immolation of the young greengrocer Mohamed Bouazizi in the
central Tunisian provincial town of Sidi Bouzid. This suicide sparked
demonstrations and mass protests, first throughout Tunisia, then Egypt and it
ultimately rocked the entire Arab world. Tens of thousands took to the streets,
protested against dictators and autocratic rulers, and called for social
justice, freedom and dignity. The process represented a historic turning point:
in Tunisia and Egypt, long-time rulers Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni
Mubarak were overthrown.
In Europe, the events were
celebrated as the struggle of Arab youth for freedom, democracy and
self-determination, and their protagonists were showered with prizes and
honours. But the hope for a political turning point has remained unfulfilled.
Only in Tunisia has there been a regime change and an ongoing process of
democratisation. In most countries, people have not been able to make real
progress. In some places, conditions are even worse today than they were
before.
The Middle East and North Africa now
comprise the largest conflict region in the world. Everywhere, instability and
uncertainty prevail. The population is growing rapidly, unemployment is high,
especially among the young, and economic prospects are poor. Year after year,
the income and prosperity gap between the EU and North Africa is widening.
State indebtedness is increasing and along with it, the dependence on
international donors, the IMF, and the World Bank. Politically, authoritarian
states and repressive systems dominate – above all the military regime in Egypt
and the monarchies in the Gulf, which have led the counter-revolution
everywhere else.
Great power struggles
In Syria and Yemen, the Arab Spring
ended in fiasco. The devastating wars are costing countless lives, destroying
cities and infrastructure and forcing millions of people to flee. By now, seven
million Syrians – one third of the population – have left their homeland. Most
of them are living in huge refugee camps in Turkey or in Jordan and Lebanon,
two countries that are themselves struggling to survive.
The further development
of the region is uncertain. However, we can be sure that global crises such as
climate change and the corona pandemic promise to create more problems.
The military intervention of foreign
powers has only prolonged the suffering. Like Yemen and Libya, Syria has long
since become a scene of proxy wars between states struggling for regional
supremacy.
Turkey under Erdogan and his ruling
party AKP is increasingly presenting itself as the protective force for its
muslim brothers as it develops neo-Ottoman great power fantasies. Russia is
expanding its influence in Egypt, sending mercenaries to Libya while it has
secured power for Syrian President Assad for the time being. Iran is in the
process of drawing a Shiite arc from Tehran across Iraq to the powerful
Hezbollah in Lebanon. And Saudi Arabia sees itself as regional hegemon with
strong support from the Trump administration.
What the future holds for the Arab
world
The further development of the
region is uncertain. However, we can be sure that global crises such as climate
change and the corona pandemic promise to create more problems. Climate change,
with its rise in temperature, increases the danger of droughts and floods and
threatens the future of agriculture. The pandemic poses a serious threat
because in most countries it impacts ailing and chronically underfunded health
systems, while in countries racked by civil war it strikes a weakened
population that lives in poor hygienic conditions or in cities that have been
destroyed.
The economic consequences will be
even more serious than the health risks. There are no financial resources for
rescue packages or economic stimulus packages. Targeted aid from the industrialised
countries has so far been lacking. Because of weeks of lockdowns and curfews,
the collapse of tourism and the disruption of supply chains, the economic
downturn has inevitably led to an increase in unemployment and poverty. Reduced
hours compensation and support from unemployment insurance for the families
affected simply do not exist. Most of the nations have now applied for
emergency loans from the IMF.
Tunisia was the starting point of
the Arab Spring. There it celebrated its first and greatest success: the fall
of the autocrat Ben Ali and his flight into exile. A constitution was
introduced that is comparable to that of any other democracy in the world. In
addition, a vigilant and secular civil society fought off the attempt by the
re-admitted Muslim Brotherhood Party (Ennahda) to push the country more towards
an Islamic-conservative orientation. The so-called national dialogue quartet
made up of trade unions, employers’ associations, the bar association and the
Tunisian human rights league was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015. This
stood as proof that in an Islamic country, a functioning democracy of the kind
that the late President Essebsi had called for is possible.
The Arab Spring hardly
lived up to any of the expectations associated with it.
The fact that Tunisia was the only
country where the Arab Spring succeeded certainly also has to do with the fact
that it is a small country with few natural resources. It lies apart from the
arenas in which the regional great powers are struggling for supremacy and/or
access to resources. But other factors were decisive: state founder Habib
Bourguiba had prescribed a secular course for the country right from the start.
He banned polygamy and prohibited headscarves in schools, government offices and
the courts. As early as 1956, the year of independence, he codified the
equality of men and women in a civil status law, which was unprecedented for
the Arab world. His laws on divorce and pregnancy are comparable to those of
Germany today. The participation of women in social life was welcomed, and
consequently many women occupied management positions in universities and
courts, in health care and in politics. For decades, statutory health and
pension insurance have also existed, giving people at least a minimum of social
security. And with the UGTT, the Tunisian General Labour Union, a free and
powerful trade union movement is in place.
An Arab Spring 2.0?
It is just these prerequisites that
were not present in the other countries of the Arab Spring. This shows that
there must be not only free elections at the beginning of a transformation
process; it is at least as important to promote civic engagement instead of
obstructing it. Free trade unions, independent media with competent and
courageous journalists, the founding of secular parties and, above all,
committed women are the actual prerequisites for democratic transformation.
Without a fundamental change in gender relations and without a clearer
separation of state and religion, it will not be possible for the Arab world to
win a brighter future.
The Arab Spring hardly lived up to
any of the expectations associated with it. In this respect, it can be described
as a failed revolution. Nevertheless, it does mark a historic turning point. It
showed that people in the Arab world are ready to take to the streets for their
rights and they are capable of overthrowing despots. Today, ten years later,
the negative consequences of bad governance, corruption and cronyism are
becoming more and more visible throughout the region. For most people, the
political legitimacy of the rulers has long been shattered. Their resentment
over grievances will remain and it will only continue to grow when the economic
situation – as is to be feared – worsens. One side effect of the corona crisis
is that the curfews and contact bans imposed have temporarily curtailed a
number of protests.
Democratic transformations are
lengthy and difficult processes that can neither be decreed nor activated
overnight. We must also note that, contrary to what one might hope, liberal
democracy with European characteristics is not viewed everywhere as the desired
model and preferred form of government. If Europe wants to play a role in the
countries of the Arab world in the future, the EU must finally design and
pursue a common Mediterranean policy, instead of regularly appearing as a club
of rival economies from individual member states.
At the time, Europe slept through
the opportunities of the Arab Spring. But when the time is ripe, the
discontented, the brave, the young, those who do not want their future to be
stolen, will again demand work and bread, freedom and dignity, and realistic
prospects for their lives. They will then be able to fall back on past
experiences and build on them. The Arab Spring had a huge impact. Further
tremors, an Arab Spring 2.0, will follow.
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