Middle East Forum - Dispatch - By Winfield Myers - July 17, 2026 - Iran's revolutionary Guard May Accept Deals but Never Peace

 

View on web  |  Read what you missed Iran's Revolutionary Guard May Accept Deals but Never Peace By Winfield Myers ● Jul 17, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 7 mins...1918 words Saeid Golkar writes that the aftermath of the 2026 war seems to have strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s political weight within the Islamic Republic’s decision-making structure, especially after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. As his son and official successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen since the war started, the official interpreters of the Supreme Leader’s thinking inside the IRGC are more important for understanding the regime’s public line. Hojatoleslam Abdollah Haji Sadeghi is one of the most important voices today, and he has explained that resistance remains the IRGC’s principal strategy. The U.S., Golkar argues, should not assume that if Iran follows parts of the MOU, it will lead to broader moderation. Policymakers should be able to distinguish between temporary restraint and genuine strategic change. This issue also features articles by Hussein Aboubakr Mansour, Michael Rubin, Jalal Tagreeb, and Jules Gomes, among others. Correction: Our last issue stated that Southern Methodist University appointed Prof. Rick Halperin to lead the “Justice for Yasin Malik Campaign.” Halperin, an employee of SMU, was appointed to the position by the Dallas leader of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front terror movement. We regret the error. The Revolutionary Guard May Accept Deals but Never Peace By: Saeid Golkar For many observers of Iranian politics, the key question is whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will support the Memorandum of Understanding post-2026 war. The Guard’s messaging indicates the answer is no. The IRGC’s political influence has grown, especially after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his successor Mojtaba Khamenei absent from public view. Ideological steadfastness: The Guard’s representative office to the Supreme Leader serves as its ideological command center, ensuring commitment to the doctrine of velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the jurists). Hojatoleslam Abdollah Haji Sadeghi’s office shapes the Guard’s propaganda and political messaging, maintaining ideological cohesion. Media as a propaganda tool: The IRGC uses its media platforms to justify controversial decisions and communicate ideological boundaries. Sadeghi’s statements reaffirm the Guard’s traditional worldview, emphasizing continued confrontation and rejecting reconciliation. Memorandum’s tactical nature: The Memorandum is viewed as a tactical adaptation rather than a strategic shift, with resistance remaining the IRGC’s principal strategy. Policymakers should differentiate between temporary restraint and genuine strategic change, as true change requires a shift in the IRGC’s mission and strategies. To read the full article, click here. Saudi Arabia’s Challenge to the Abraham Accords By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour Before October 7, 2023, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) was negotiating normalization with Israel, seeing it strategically beneficial despite the Palestinian issue. Recent regional developments, however, have shifted Saudi policy, treating both Iran and Israel as equally destabilizing forces. Israeli forward defense after October 7: The October 7 attacks shattered Israeli security assumptions. The breach of the Gaza border by a militia led Israel to conclude that deterrence could fail, prompting a shift to forward defense—actively eliminating threats rather than relying on reactive containment. The Saudi trajectory: Saudi Arabia’s response evolved alongside Israeli operations. Initially, normalization talks were suspended but were said to resume post-fighting. As Israeli operations expanded, Saudi Arabia’s stance hardened, leading to active opposition to the strategic framework of normalization. The two models under fire: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, signatories of the Abraham Accords, faced intense Iranian attacks. Saudi Arabia, pursuing non-alignment, shaped the war’s diplomatic outcome through alliances with Pakistan and the R-4 quartet, distancing itself from the Accords‘ framework. It is necessary to hold the Saudis to the defense pact, advanced arms sales, and the civilian nuclear program plans at the price Washington originally set for them—normalization—rather than allowing the Kingdom to extract the benefits of alignment without committing to the American vision of regional order. To read the full article, click here. Marco Rubio Must Confront Lazy, Outdated State Department Travel Warnings By: Michael Rubin The State Department declares it has “no higher priority than the safety and security of U.S. citizens,” but its travel warnings lack granularity and may undermine U.S. policy. Granularity in travel warnings: The warnings for countries like Somaliland and Libya often overstate risks, painting a misleading picture. Somaliland, for instance, hasn’t seen a terrorist attack since 2008, and crime is notably low, unlike what the warnings suggest. Impact on investment: Exaggerated warnings deter American businesses from investing in regions like Benghazi, benefiting rivals like Russia and China. Dire warnings inflate insurance rates and discourage potential investors who are unaware of the discrepancies. Diplomatic implications: These overcautious warnings can also skew immigration policies and contribute to inflated hardship pay claims. Diplomats benefit financially from exaggerated danger, costing taxpayers significantly more. To read the full article, click here. Confronting the Legacy of Jizya as an Instrument of Subjugation By: Jalal Tagreeb A major new report from MEF’s Dhimmitude Project offers a rigorous historical, textual, and juridical critique demonstrating that the Islamic poll tax imposed on non-Muslims was a foundational mechanism of oppression rather than a reciprocal protection fee. For nearly 13 centuries, the Christian and Jewish communities of the Levant, North Africa, and beyond lived under the jizya, a poll tax levied exclusively on non-Muslims and defended in Islamic jurisprudence as fair compensation for military protection, exemption from conscription, and the privilege of practicing a tolerated faith. A tool of oppression: This tax, far from being a mere civic obligation, was designed to humiliate and subjugate non-Muslim communities, stripping them of dignity. Historical sources reveal that jizya was not about protection but about enforcing a hierarchy that placed non-Muslims in a perpetual state of inferiority. Eroding communities: Over centuries, jizya contributed significantly to the demographic decline of once-thriving Christian and Jewish communities in the Middle East. It was a financial mechanism that systematically weakened these communities, reducing vibrant populations to mere shadows of their former selves. Demand for redress: The long-lasting impact of jizya demands acknowledgment and reparative action, treating historical injustices as debts owed, not forgotten footnotes. Addressing this legacy is essential for justice and reconciliation, ensuring that past wrongs are recognized and rectified. To read the full report, click here. Islamist Groups Turn FIFA World Cup into Field for Muslim Proselytization By: Jules Gomes Islamist organizations have launched aggressive proselytization campaigns during the FIFA World Cup series across 16 cities in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. MUNA’s influence: The Muslim Ummah of North America (MUNA) began its dawa at SoFi Stadium in California, promoting Islam as a “faith of peace and purpose.” MUNA, linked to Jamaat-e-Islami, has been criticized for its connections to Islamist movements and extremist ideologies. ICNA’s expanding reach: The Islamic Circle of North America (ICNA) boasts of its dawa success stories, like the conversion of Ricardo, a Mexican airport worker. ICNA has faced scrutiny for glorifying jihadist ideology and maintaining ties with extremist groups. IERA’s controversial project: The U.K.-based Islamic Education & Research Academy (IERA) leverages the World Cup to distribute dawa materials globally. IERA has previously been investigated for promoting extremist views and antisemitism. To read the full article, click here. Israeli Investigative Report Confirms Five Brotherhood Affiliates in Italy By: Jules Gomes An Israeli investigative report corroborates longstanding Italian Senate discussions: the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) maintains a presence in Italy through five affiliates dominated by an unrecognized umbrella Islamic organization. MB-linked entities: The report identifies organizations like the Union of Islamic Communities and Organisations in Italy (UCOII) and the Young Muslims of Italy as key MB-linked entities. UCOII, the MB’s flagship in Italy, controls numerous mosques and has received substantial funding from Qatar Charity, a group linked to terrorist support. Senate scrutiny: The Italian Senate has frequently questioned UCOII’s ties to the MB and urged action to address these connections. Senators have highlighted UCOII leaders‘ radical associations and called for monitoring MB-linked activities. Calls for transparency: Experts and political figures in Italy emphasize the need for a transparent Islam, independent of foreign influence. The MB’s covert operations in Italy are seen as a threat to liberal democracy, necessitating a robust response. To read the full article, click here. Qatar’s Strategic Advance in Latin America By: Jose Lev Alvarez Qatar is methodically constructing a web of influence across the Andes to the Caribbean, embedding itself through investments, flight routes, and partnerships. Strategic investments: In Argentina’s Patagonia, a Qatari businessman linked to the royal family acquired 10,000 hectares, including control over key water resources. This move highlights Qatar’s strategy of creating dependencies that convert into political leverage. Diplomatic maneuvers: Qatar maintains ties and visibility in Venezuela, leveraging its position as a regional mediator during political transitions. These actions provide Doha with unique access to financial flows and leverage points others lack. Soft power and security: Qatar Airways’ new routes and sponsorships expand influence, while participation in security forums opens closed networks. Concurrently, Gulf Arab money finances mosques and cultural centers, advancing Islamist networks alongside official expansions. To read the full article, click here. Tunisia Is Dying While Chasing Political Ghosts By: Amine Ayoub President Kais Saied’s regime jails opponents and brands defunct parties as terrorists while Tunisians riot for jobs and 30,000 skilled professionals flee annually. Judicial distractions: In July 2026, Tunisia’s frenetic judicial actions, like designating Ennahda as a terrorist group, mask a failing economy. The move is largely symbolic, as Ennahda has been effectively dismantled since its offices were shuttered in 2023 and its leadership, including Rached Ghannouchi, imprisoned. These actions serve to distract from the fiscal and social crisis under Saied’s leadership. Economic despair: Unemployment is rampant, with graduate unemployment over 24 percent, and skilled professionals leaving the country in droves. Tunisia’s standoff with the IMF has blocked essential loans, further isolating it from global markets. A cautionary tale: Centralized authoritarian control in Tunisia may suppress opposition, but cannot replace a viable economic strategy. Without addressing material realities, the greatest threat to Saied’s power is the growing desperation of his own citizens. To read the full article,

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