But it all
ends badly. History has not absolved the personalist rule of Fidel Castro or
any of the others who took the populist path to power.
Populists, caudillos and strongmen in power don’t fail at the outset,
they gain strength. That is because their personalist rule delivers up front
to the constituencies that brought them to the top, often challenging
bothersome institutional constraints along the way. They worry about the
consequences later. The real troubles begin when the consequences arrive,
revealing how the short term has eaten the long term. Then the bad overtakes
the good.
As the
classicist Phillip Freeman has
written in The WorldPost, this has been true going back to
Clodius in the Roman republic, whose popularity soared as he handed out free
grain to the plebeians. But the divisive character of his mercurial rule
drove the republic to the point of civil war and opened the way for the
dictatorship of Caesar to restore order. In the 1950s in
Argentina, Juan and Eva Peron fostered
many programs to elevate the poor descamisados (shirtless
ones) until corruption, debt and inflation overwhelmed any gains and the
military ultimately stepped in to stem the chaos. In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez unquestionably
lifted the welfare of the poor the elites had ignored through programs
like misiones sociales, but in the end squandered immense
oil resources, became heavily indebted to China
and whose policies now,
under the rule of his successor Nicolás Maduro, have ignited 500 percent, if
not more, inflation. Store
shelves are empty, medicines are scarce, daily protests fill the streets and
citizens that see little hope are fleeing economic collapse by
the boatload.
This pattern also fits
Fidel Castro. Though he arrived in power by the bullet instead of the ballot,
his rallying cry was populist, nationalist and above all, personalist. He
accomplished near universal literacy and
free health care for
all in that tiny Caribbean island. In the end, though, his caudillo-like rule
crushed dissent and personal liberties while his Soviet-style economy, abetted
by the U.S. blockade, drove the nation into an impoverished cul-de-sac.
History has not absolved Castro or any of the others who took the populist
path to power.
Whether Donald Trump
fits this pattern, as former Mexican President Vicente Fox argues,
remains to be seen. As president-elect, Trump has claimed to have saved some 800 to 1,000 jobs in
Indiana from moving to Mexico. His pledge of a $1
trillion dollar infrastructure surge has so far helped boost the
stock market and will surely create significant new employment with far
reaching multiplier effects if it comes to pass.
Since no populist
politician has ever before occupied the top office of the world’s most
powerful nation in modern times, we don’t know what to expect. America is a
profoundly pluralist and ethnically diverse society bound by constitutional
constraints more hallowed than elsewhere. This context bears little
resemblance to where populism has been empowered before.
The flashing red light
that cannot escape concern, however, is the very personalist style of
operation that brought Donald Trump to power through scapegoating invective
against the outside world and perceived enemies within. If troubles appear
later on, will he revert to the path that brought him to where he is or abide
by the norms of civility and restraint that have limited the authority of
every previous American president? All who want America to succeed are
obliged to give Trump the benefit of the doubt for now since the democratic
ballot box has put him in the White House. But that red light needs to remain
flashing every step of the way.
Emily Peck contends
that Donald Trump has “his eye on the wrong ball” by blaming trade for job
losses. As true as that may have been in the past, the real threat of job
displacement in the future, she writes, comes from Amazon’s takeover of the
economy. Ryszard Petru and Guy Verhofstadt,
the European Union’s top negotiator on Brexit, take on the populist wave
heading to the European continent in the wake of Trump’s victory in the
America. “One of the greatest delusions spread by populists on both the
left and right,” they argue, “is that turning inwards will empower us. The
reality is that in an inter-connected world, no one European country can
influence global trade rules. And make no mistake: if we abandon shaping the
environment around us, others will shape us.” Writing from Paris, Anne Sinclair worries
that “the political future of France has never been more uncertain.” “Time
will reveal,” she writes, “if Marine Le Pen will be able to cause the
greatest political earthquake in France since the Liberation.”
Following Fidel’s
death at 90 last week, several contributions evaluate his life and
times. Mark Beeson looks
as the triumphs and failures of the Cuban revolution in the context of the
struggle against inequality across Latin America. Michelle Manning Barish brings
a personal family perspective to the Cuban experience. She warns against
romanticizing the Cuban revolution, writing that, “the only people who know
the real history of Castro in Cuba are the ones who lived it.” Based on
recent conversations in Havana, Abraham Lowenthal cautions
that a post-Castro Cuba is not likely to change quickly as a result of the
Obama opening – and certainly not if Trump reverses course once in
office.
In other global
matters, Sam Stein and Jessica Schulberg report
from Washington that foreign policy experts are lining up to press the
incoming Trump administration to keep the Iran nuclear deal or risk a nuclear
arms race in the Mideast. Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown calls
for an international investigation of the Russian-Syrian role in the deadly
bombing of a school in the village of Haas which killed dozens of people,
mostly children.
Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden report
on how Rwanda is positioning itself as a hub for Chinese investment in
Africa. Jeffie Lam of
our South China Morning Post partner reports on the rise and
fall of the independence movement in Hong Kong. Earlier in the week,
the Post reported that Chris Patten, the last
British governor of Hong Kong, told journalists that calls for independence
should not be confused with the struggle for greater democracy, which he
supports. Writing from Perth, Australia Helen Clark reports
that Vietnam is looking to the combined weight of the Association of East
Asian Nations, or ASEAN, as a way for smaller nations in the region to
protect and promote their interests as the U.S. and China battle for
influence.
Stefano Baldolini writes
from Italy that a “no” outcome of the referendum this weekend over key
constitutional reforms that diminish the role of the Italian Senate and give
more power to the prime minister could spark a new round of instability
across Europe.
India is rapidly
joining the renewable revolution. Elyse Wanshel reports
that India has built the world’s largest solar plant in eight months, and it
generates enough power for 150,000 homes.
The news is not so
good elsewhere. Ryan Grenoble reports
that, “There’s substantially less sea ice in the world than ever
before. The Arctic ― and, for completely unrelated reasons, the
Antarctic ― just closed out November with less ice than any other year in
history.”
There is joy in life
if you lighten up and let God’s mercy in. That is the takeaway, Carol Kuruvilla writes,
for Pope Francis from his favorite film, “Babette’s Feast.” The film depicts
an austere Protestant town of joyless inhabitants disrupted by a generous
French cook in exile who brings them all together in happy fellowship around
a meticulously prepared meal. Writing from Istanbul, novelist Kaya Genc describes
how the ongoing political chaos in Turkey is re-energizing the arts scene.
“Young Turks,” he writes, are “turning to art in trouble times.” Finally, our
Singularity series this week examines the global contest, especially between
the U.S. and China, over the most powerful supercomputer. The key to the
prize, writes Peter Rejcek, is smart
architecture, not speed.
 
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