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Hey fam:
Today’s newsletter is a little bit different—it’s got a Triad Mailbag in the third item. For those of you who are new, our mailbags are a chance for you to ask questions that Jasmine and I answer on video: questions about issues and ideas, or the behind-the-scenes workings of The Bulwark, or personal stuff. (I’m hoping we can do one entirely about watches, but for some reason Jasmine thinks that might not be wildly interesting to everyone; I don’t get it.)
You know by now that we don’t think of The Bulwark as just a media outlet but also as a community of people who care about democracy, value the truth, and can get angry together and laugh together at the absurdity of it all. Because none of us should have to navigate this moment alone. And the video mailbag is one way we get to hang out with you guys.
If you want to check out today’s mailbag—and go through the older ones, too—sign up for a Bulwark+ membership, now with a 30 percent discount off the regular price for the next year. You can opt to go monthly or get the whole year for just $70.
–JVL
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1. Moronic Inflation
Economists make distinctions between kinds of inflation. There’s demand-pull and cost-push inflation. There’s walking and galloping inflation. There’s transitory inflation. Today we have what I’m going to call “moronic inflation.”
We can explain moronic inflation with a single chart:
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This chart shows two of those flavors of inflation, separated by that vertical red line I added.
On the left side we see the demand-pull inflation resulting from COVID. The pandemic shocked global supply chains, which combined with the influx of stimulus dollars designed to keep households afloat. This resulted in a spike in prices as too much money chased too few goods. You will note that this inflation peaked around September 2022, after which it quickly abated.
Why did the inflation recede? Smart monetary policy from central bankers and smart fiscal policy from the Biden administration were part of it. But the biggest driver was the reset of global supply chains. As they reorganized, inflation decreased. By the spring of 2024, the growth rate of consumer goods prices was a bit better than back to par.
Then we have our red line. This line marks—surprise!—the second election of Donald Trump.
Trump campaigned on the promise of imposing sweeping tariffs to fight inflation and lower prices. This was moronic on several levels.
Inflation had already abated and real wages were already positive.
Tariffs increase costs and raise inflationary pressure.
Deflation—the across-the-board reduction in prices—is not a good outcome. Deflation is always accompanied by economic calamity. No one with an IQ over 80 would ever want deflation.
But morons American voters heard Donald Trump’s pitch and thought, What the hell do all those pointy-headed “experts” know? They wanted tariffs and lower prices and the guy who fucked up the pandemic response and attempted a coup.
And they got what they wanted, which is the inflation on the right side of the graph. Handed a healthy economy, Trump imposed his tariffs and they did exactly what the so-called “experts” said they’d do: Dampened economic activity while increasing prices.
This is inflation caused not by either a supply shock or a demand shock, not by war, or pestilence, or collapse. It was caused by choice. A political candidate promised to do things that would create inflation; voters chose his program against the warnings of “experts”; inflation resumed.
Moronic inflation.
American voters were incapable of:
Seeing the cause of the 2022 inflation.
Perceiving the reality that the inflation of 2022 was beaten by 2024.
Judging between the promises of a former game show host and convicted felon and the warnings of economists.
Understanding the most basic economic effects of tariffs.
The only explanations I can think of for these failings are (a) a pure deficiency of cognitive ability; (b) a pathological drive for self-mutilation; or (c) a pervasive decadence/nihilism in which American society either believed itself immune from consequences or was uninterested in them.
Someday econ textbooks will include a chapter on the inflation of 2025/26 examining this exciting new phenomenon.
2. Pro-life
In today’s Triad Mailbag (linked below), a reader asks if I’ve changed my mind on abortion. Spoiler: I haven’t. What I’ve changed my mind about is the pro-life movement.
I find it impossible to believe that the political movement that styles itself as “pro-life” cares—at all—about “life.”
The newest example is performative Christian and pro-life alpha warrior warfighter Pete Hegseth deciding to livestream an execution.
In case you missed the news: On December 3, Nidal Hasan, the Army officer who in 2009 murdered twelve soldiers and one civilian, will be put to death by firing squad.
Put aside whether or not the death penalty is compatible with Christian theology. Just take that question off the table for a moment.
Could a follower of Jesus think it is Christ-like to turn an execution into public spectacle?
This isn’t simply not pro-life. It’s objectively pro-death. It’s bloodlust. And it’s bloodlust rooted in base ethnic hatred. Because I promise you that Pete Hegseth wouldn’t have wanted the execution of Timothy McVeigh broadcast live to the world.
Nidal Hasan is a special case, because, you know.
You will note the strategic silence from professional pro-lifers, including the administration’s quisling Catholic theologian.
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3. Mailbag: Vance, Tucker, or Don Jr.?
The transcript, edited for clarity and concision, is linked below.
In this episode we cover:
From Trey H.: With Hegseth in charge, should we be worried that the military will be contaminated with Trumpists long after 2029? (starting around 1:57)
From Kate K.: American voters are unserious. Are Democrats better off not sweeping the midterms, lest they be blamed for all the country’s problems in 2028? (starting around 4:07)
From Phoebe M.: JVL, what is your current stance on abortion? Has it changed from before? (starting around 6:10)
From Buddy Jim: JVL, have you enjoyed your transition from magazine guy to on-air talent? (starting around 8:42)
From DaveK: JVL, what were your politics like twenty years ago? (starting around 10:2
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