Think Tank reports on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine
13/10/2026
This article notes that Ukraine is entering another major transition in how it fights, and the central question is how far it should shift from a conventional army toward one built around drones, autonomous systems and long-range precision strikes.
Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations
Beyond lessons learned: how Russia institutionalises battlefield experience
This paper argues that Russia's most important military innovation since 2022 is neither a weapon nor a tactical concept. It is a hybrid learning system. The formal military-scientific establishment of the Ministry of Defence now operates alongside a wider ecosystem of volunteer organisations, veterans, private developers, military bloggers and research centres, which Russian sources increasingly describe collectively as the People's Military-Industrial Complex. Together, these actors compress the feedback loop between combat operations and institutional adaptation.
Center for European Policy Analysis
How to fight Putin’s war on reality
This brief notes that increased Russian costs will not necessarily lead to de-escalation and that Western policy should weaken the regime’s ability to make its worldview credible to Russia’s people, including by supporting Russia’s opposition media.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Dispersal: saving Ukraine from Russia’s winter blitz
This paper suggests that Ukraine must build an energy system that can function when the national grid is damaged or disconnected, shifting toward smaller, more dispersed sources of electricity and heat to protect essential services from Russian attacks.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Ukraine rethinks mine clearance for a new age
According to this publication, de-mining techniques developed for previous generations are no longer suitable for modern devices. Increasingly sophisticated and concealed explosive threats require a new approach to mine clearance in Ukraine.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Ukraine battles the Russian satellite menace
This brief argues that the Kremlin’s urgent efforts to achieve satellite sovereignty are extremely dangerous for Ukraine and calls for Kyiv and its allies to disrupt the programme.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Ukraine’s Black Sea attacks take a toll on Russia’s economy
Since early June, Ukrainian forces have stepped up missile and drone attacks on Russia, focusing on critical and logistics infrastructure in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea region. This article analyses the impact of attacks on Russian exports of agricultural commodities, crude oil and petroleum products.
Razumkov Centre
This brief underlines that Donald Trump's claim that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are responsible for record-high US diesel prices lacks evidence and targets only a secondary market factor. The ongoing global oil crisis is primarily driven by shipping disruptions and military vulnerabilities in the Middle East. The global oil shock has become networked. East-West routes do not eliminate dependence on maritime straits but create new choke points. An energy truce would benefit Ukraine only if accompanied by clear rules, independent monitoring, accountability for violations, and real guarantees from partners.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
How do the latest Black Sea attacks affect global food security?
Recent escalations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict feature mutual attacks on shipping and agricultural export infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. These disruptions have restricted a substantial portion of the global wheat and fertiliser trade, while separate constraints in the Strait of Hormuz and Panama Canal are further straining international trade routes.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
The coalition for Ukrainian children: coordinating commitments and confronting challenges
This publication examines the international effort to secure the return of Ukrainian children who have been deported or transferred to Russia and emphasises the role of the international coalition for the return of Ukrainian children. It highlights significant financial, diplomatic, and humanitarian commitments from international partners, while identifying fragmented coordination, limited information-sharing, and differing sanctions as major challenges. It concludes that stronger coordination and long-term support for rehabilitation, family reunification, and reintegration are necessary to address the issue effectively.
International Centre for Defence and Security
The case for a visa ban: pathways to denying Russian (ex-)combatants entry to the EU
The article looks at the ways of banning Russians who have taken part in the war of aggression against Ukraine from entering the EU. It underlines the importance of denying Russian intelligence and security services operational freedom in Europe, preventing violent and organised crime, and enhancing internal security.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)
Viewing the reconstruction of Ukraine as a strategic opportunity for Europe
This paper argues that the EU should not view the reconstruction as a burden but rather as a strategic investment in Europe’s long-term security, competitiveness, and resilience. It assesses the scale of Ukraine’s reconstruction needs, examines lessons from previous post-conflict recovery experiences, and analyses potential benefits for the EU from providing sustained financial support to Ukraine. The paper further evaluates policy instruments needed to mobilise private capital, a key driver of long-term recovery, including enhanced de-risking mechanisms, blended finance, and public-private partnerships.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Far-right and populist forces in Europe: risks for regional stability and implications for Ukraine
The author suggests that the rise of far-right and populist parties in Europe is functional rather than ideological. The anti-European stance of these parties serves as a defensive reaction by powerful domestic networks. These networks, built around control over strategic state-owned companies, use populism to resist the supranational oversight of the European Union.
Council on Foreign Relations
Hunger on the horizon: the new Black Sea grain crisis
According to this article, the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war has halted the Black Sea grain trade and metastasised into a war on the global food system. Combined with drought in the northern hemisphere, a looming super El Niño, and persistent instability in the Middle East, this has brought the world to the verge of a crisis that could erase years of progress in reducing global hunger and push millions into acute food insecurity.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
An EU special representative for Ukraine peace talks
The authors argue that the EU remains largely sidelined in peace negotiations despite being the primary long-term supporter of Ukraine’s defence and economic survival, and calls for a formal European voice and clear, enforceable guarantees in the peace talks. It is emphasised that the Union cannot afford to become the financier and security guarantor of a settlement negotiated by others.
International Centre for Defence and Security
Constrained yet dangerous: the wartime evolution of Russia’s intelligence ecosystem
This report examines Russia’s intelligence ecosystem which, since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has redirected its priorities toward supporting the war effort while adapting to a more constrained and contested operational and strategic environment.
Institut français des relations internationales
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russian strategic guidelines on the application of air power have proven to be outdated, irrelevant and even self-defeating. This report does not aspire to draw comprehensive lessons regarding the strength and weakness of the Russian Aerospace Forces and their key branch, the Air Force, from the evolving war or to assess the scope of aerial threats to NATO in the foreseeable future. Its more limited aim is to examine the most recent discrepancies between Russia’s evolving views on the application of air power and the ongoing reconfiguration of the Aerospace Forces.
East European Security Research Initiative Foundation
Why waiting out the Russia-Ukraine war may not buy NATO safety
According to the authors, a protracted war does more than exhaust Russia. It reshapes the country’s economy, army, and politics in ways that will not be easy to reverse. That could make a clash with NATO more likely, not less so – the opposite of what many Western officials assume.
10/09/2026
European Policy Institute in Kiev
Robots take the risk: Ukraine’s UGV ecosystem and what Europe should learn from it
Ukraine has systematically removed humans from roles that don’t require human judgement, letting machines absorb the danger soldiers would otherwise face. This brief analyses what unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) can and can’t do and what lessons European institutions can draw from Ukraine’s experience.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The brief suggests that Russia may be approaching another mobilization. While the Kremlin’s intentions cannot be known with certainty, a new call-up would not necessarily signal an imminent Russian attack on NATO. Nevertheless, the conditions surrounding the development of Russian forces are changing, and deserve closer attention.
European Policy Centre
Europe must seize the moment to change Putin's calculus
As Ukrainian strikes expose growing vulnerabilities deep inside Russia, the brief argues that Europe should ramp up its support for Ukraine to create conditions forcing Putin to conclude that he cannot win militarily in Ukraine and that a negotiated settlement is preferable to a prolonged conflict.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Managed disorder: the hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine
The paper argues that the war in Ukraine is likely to end in a ceasefire followed by prolonged confrontation between Russia, Europe and the US. It calls for “managed disorder”, combining deterrence, limited cooperation and conditional incentives. It stresses that this framework must also address divisions within the West and create incentives for other actors to comply.
Council on Foreign Relations
The time is ripe for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but Putin could escalate conflict
The brief highlights that renewed NATO commitment to strengthening support for Ukraine, alongside President Donald Trump’s more supportive stance, could create momentum toward negotiations aimed at ending the war. At the same time, despite a series of setbacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears prepared to intensify Russia’s aerial campaign against Ukraine.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Ukraine strikes Russia’s central nervous system
As the brief points out, for most of the full-scale war, Russia has enjoyed a dangerous strategic asymmetry. It has been able to destroy Ukraine’s power plants, refineries, heating systems and civilian infrastructure, while much of Russia’s own war economy has remained far behind the front line and largely out of Ukraine’s reach. But not anymore.
East European Security Research Initiative Foundation
Why waiting out the Russia-Ukraine war may not buy NATO safety
This paper challenges the assumption that prolonging the war inevitably weakens Russia and makes NATO safer. It argues that Russia is simultaneously rebuilding its military and adapting its economy. The brief concludes that Europe should accelerate its defence spending and support for Ukraine, while pushing for a durable end to the war, rather than relying on Russian exhaustion.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Between the hammer and the anvil: the challenges facing Ukraine’s local government in wartime
Ukraine began efforts to establish a modern system of local government before Russia’s full-scale invasion, but the war has created new challenges for local authorities. The article analyses institutional shortcomings, the obstacles to reforming decentralisation and ongoing tensions between the central government and local administrations.
Vox Ukraine
Not just bread, but childhood: what Russia steals from children of Ukraine
The study finds that ground fighting has not significantly increased children’s deprivation of basic needs, but is associated with greater deprivation in terms of development, recreation and social inclusion. It argues that humanitarian support has protected material needs relatively well, while the wider social costs of war remain insufficiently addressed.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Environmental justice for Ukraine and ecocide deterrence
According to the brief, the environmental damage from Russia’s 12-year war on Ukraine is unquestionable, and work is needed to ensure that those responsible are punished. Ukraine has faced significant challenges investigating and prosecuting ecocide since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, and there is little room for delay. Faced with continuous environmental destruction, Kyiv has had no choice but to move forward with investigations and charges as the war continues.
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Empowering Ukraine: spend smarter, support harder
The report highlights that for Ukraine to rebuild, it will continue to rely on its partners. This is where this collection of proposals can offer a way forward, setting out innovative ideas to improve the ways in which the EU, foremost among those partners, can effectively empower Ukraine.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
The Ukrainian power grid: lessons for Europe
The paper indicates that the war has exposed Ukraine’s electricity grid to sustained Russian attacks, but its resilience has been strengthened by technical expertise, international support and European synchronisation. The Ukrainian experience offers valuable lessons for strengthening Europe’s electricity security.
Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier (Danish Institute of International Studies)
LGBTQ+ soldiers and the democratic future of Ukraine
Thousands of LGBTQ+ Ukrainians serve on the frontline, yet remain legally unprotected. Amid financial and legislative uncertainty, the brief notes that queer organisations are building vital wartime and veteran infrastructure to provide psychological, legal and safety support.
Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier (Danish Institute of International Studies)
Repairing under fire – recovery chain constraints on Ukraine’s energy resilience
The 2025-2026 winter points to growing structural constraints on the resilience of Ukraine’s energy system. The key question is whether damaged infrastructure can be restored faster than Russia can disable it. This depends on the whole recovery chain – from procurement to installation, commissioning and protection. Air defence and operational adaptation remain central, but delays across this chain increasingly constrain recovery under sustained attack.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Imagining Ukraine’s political system after the war
The authors argue that even if the terms of a ceasefire or peace settlement are satisfactory to most Ukrainians, the country’s democracy will face its fair share of challenges. They add that these challenges will require the emerging crop of leaders to display a high degree of statesmanship.
International Centre for Defence and Security
Under the Russian flag: reflagging and the future of shadow fleet enforcement
Since 2022, Russia’s shadow fleet, which was assembled to circumvent western sanctions, has been registered under flags of convenience to obscure its connection to the country. However, a segment of vessels has recently adopted the Russian flag. The study aims to explain this shift and to assess what the trend means for the enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil, and to consider how European policy might respond.
Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE
Does uncertainty created by the risk of sanctions affect trade above and beyond the sanctions actually imposed? While most restrictions on Russian imports were introduced immediately after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the countries imposing sanctions simultaneously pledged further escalation unless the conflict ended. The paper estimates that, in line with this threat, the subsequent escalations were largely anticipated, with trade flows declining many months before they actually became subject to sanctions.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
Strengthening European societal resilience under Russian hybrid pressure: lessons from Ukraine
The brief argues that Russia’s war against Ukraine has demonstrated the Kremlin’s growing focus on targeting societal resilience rather than military forces alone. Since 2014, the Kremlin has deployed a broad spectrum of hybrid tools in Ukraine, including disinformation, cyber disruption and sabotage, later supplemented by sustained missile and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure alongside conventional military operations. What Moscow initially used at the tactical level has evolved into a sustained, industrial-scale system aimed at exerting continued pressure on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and the civilian population.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Testing the limits: Russia’s regional budgets in wartime
The article examines the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine for Russia’s regional public finances. The highest-ever deficits and levels of debt in regional budgets reflect the fact that the Kremlin is shifting an increasing share of the wartime burden onto the regions and there is little reason to expect the situation to improve in the short term.
Geopolitics and Security Studies Center
Between the Iran war and Ukrainian drones: how strikes on the oil sector are affecting Russia
Recently, Russia was forced to defend itself against Ukrainian aerial strikes targeting critical infrastructure. The article answers key questions in this regard: what prompted this Ukrainian strategy, why focus on the oil sector and what impact is this having on Russian energy?
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
Turkey, Ukraine and the Black Sea balance: mediation, reconstruction and European defence
The brief describes Turkey-Ukraine relations as shifting from economic cooperation towards a strategic partnership focused on defence, Black Sea security and reconstruction. It argues that closer defence ties with Ukraine strengthen Turkey’s regional role but constrain its relations with Russia. It also suggests that this could increasingly involve Turkey in discussions on Europe’s emerging defence architecture, despite political resistance to its inclusion.
Carnegie Europe
Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine war in the Black Sea
The paper notes that for ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.
Brookings Institution
Russia and Ukraine: societies transformed by war
The report highlights the complexity of Soviet and post-Soviet destinies in this part of Europe: mixed identities, entangled lives, a painful history and moments of radical transformation. Russia and Ukraine share a part – but only a part – of their past. This shared context has shaped societies that resemble one another in various respects.
09.07.2026
Real Instituto Elcano
Despite pressure from Russia and reduced support from the United States, Ukraine has not collapsed. The article argues that Russia has failed to achieve its main military goals and has suffered heavy losses. At the same time, Ukraine has transformed its armed forces and rebuilt much of its defence industry. Ukrainian innovation, especially in drone warfare, has become a major advantage. As a result, and despite economic and political issues, Ukraine is proving to have real options and leverage in the conflict.
Institut français des relations internationales
Strategic shift in NATO’s support for Ukraine: a study of NSATU and PURL initiatives
This study analyses a significant transformation in NATO’s practical support for Ukraine, marked by the establishment of the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) mission and the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) funding mechanism.
Центр Разумкова (Razumkov Center)
Ukraine’s security guarantees: a prerequisite for lasting peace or an obstacle to ending the war?
Security guarantees for Ukraine are one of the key prerequisites for reaching a potential agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war. They constitute both a cornerstone of any prospective peace settlement and a major obstacle to achieving such an agreement. The report argues that long-term security guarantees remain one of the principal requirements for a future peace agreement for Kyiv, Ukrainian society and Ukraine’s European partners.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Securing Ukraine after the war: nuclear deterrence and four models of security guarantees
According to this brief, a durable post-war security settlement for Ukraine will depend on the credibility of deterrence in an increasingly unstable European nuclear order. Russia’s full-scale invasion has exposed the limits of conventional guarantees and demonstrated how nuclear coercion shapes both battlefield dynamics and Western responses. Ukraine’s long-term security is therefore inseparable from the wider evolution of transatlantic and European deterrence frameworks.
Danish Institute for International Studies
Russia’s extended war: foreign nationals on the frontlines
The report examines Russia’s recruitment of foreign nationals to support its war efforts through two interlinked practices: online recruitment through the Alabuga Start project and offline mobilisation of foreign nationals onto the front line. By analysing these dynamics together, the report demonstrates how labour migration, propaganda and warfare are increasingly entangled within broader global geopolitical, economic and digital-platform ecosystems.
International Crisis Group
A new tone and better cards in Kyiv
After four-plus years of war, Ukraine aims to show it can inflict more pain than Russia is willing to absorb to achieve the Kremlin’s objectives. As this commentary notes, Ukrainians increasingly believe that this goal is attainable, and some developments are encouraging. But challenges remain.
International Centre for Defence and Security
The Special Tribunal for Ukraine: turning the wheels of international justice
The article examines the current state of play regarding the establishment of the Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, arguing that its creation marks the beginning of a new era for Ukraine and an important milestone towards upholding international justice.
International Centre for Defence and Security
The trap closes: how Russia suppresses resistance in occupied Ukraine and how we can still help
The paper focuses on resistance to Russian occupation in Ukraine as well as the comprehensive architecture of Russian repression. It analyses the structural failings in how Western governments have funded resistance support, and offers clarity about what external actors can legitimately do in this regard.
Centre for European Policy Studies
From mines to markets: pathways for Ukraine’s agricultural recovery
This report adopts an integrated ‘from mines to markets’ perspective. It addresses the full recovery chain – from ensuring safe and productive land to improving access to finance, unlocking digital and technological solutions and rebuilding critical infrastructure. These enabling factors are deeply intertwined and should be understood as a sequential yet overlapping recovery chain, requiring coordinated sequencing of interventions.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The brief highlights an emerging framework for regenerating small and medium-sized Ukrainian cities, and points out that changing a city’s urban form requires large budgets, time and political consensus, which are rarely available. To address this challenge, city planners in several small municipalities, including Bucha, Lutsk and Makariv, are testing and developing regeneration strategies focused on streets to enable them to reach their full potential. Such projects can serve as models and inspiration for similar efforts elsewhere.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Financing Ukraine’s local recovery
Ukraine’s international partners have assembled a recovery financing architecture of substantial scale. Whether that architecture reaches the country’s small or medium-sized municipalities, however, depends on how the financing is structured. Several factors – how instruments are designed, how lending is denominated against local revenues, what project preparation national systems demand, and how a crowded field of actors is coordinated – determine what a small or medium-sized municipality can realistically absorb. This brief analyses those dynamics, asking where bottlenecks are most acute and under what conditions smaller municipalities are better positioned to engage with recovery financing.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Ukraine’s reconstruction gap: why public finance has not yet crowded in private capital
This paper draws on three original registers of project-level data from international financial institutions, the EU-Ukraine investment framework and Ukraine’s single project pipeline, which together map roughly $80 billion in reconstruction commitments and plans. The registers tell a clear story: public institutions sit at every layer, and public money rarely crowds in private capital.
Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
The Ukraine support tariff: how Europe can support Ukraine and weaken Russia
General equilibrium simulations confirm that Europe has asymmetric leverage over Russia. Trade diversion to China is modest. Extreme tariff rates (300%+) are counterproductive economically, this paper analyses a combined import tariff and export-side levy on remaining EU-Russia trade. Institutionally, the import leg is more straightforward under EU trade law, while the export leg is less straightforward and would be likely to require a distinct legal route.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Polish-Ukrainian “History wars” threaten European security
The brief comments on the political storm that has erupted between Poland and Ukraine, reminding both countries that unresolved historical memory remains one of the most explosive elements of their relationship even in wartime.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
Post-war security sector reform in Ukraine: insights from Finland, South Korea and Taiwan
Examples from other countries that have experienced similar asymmetrical security threats or active aggression from neighbouring states may be useful to Ukraine in navigating its options and determining its next steps. This paper attempts to distil relevant lessons for Ukraine from the cases of South Korea, Taiwan and Finland, while fully acknowledging the differences in historical, regional and political contexts.
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Mapping Russian interests and power repertoires in the MENA region and Ukraine
This report presents a comparative examination of the key drivers of Russia’s foreign and security policy, focusing on its power repertoires in two geopolitical contexts: in Ukraine, where conflict has been ongoing since 2014 and entered a new phase in February 2022, and in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where Russia has been more active since its military engagement in Syria in 2015.
09.06.2026
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis: a new minister, old challenges
The article analyses Ukraine’s deepening mobilisation crisis despite the appointment of a new defence minister and reforms that have been announced. It argues that staff shortages, desertions and growing social resistance are weakening the army’s combat capacity. It also stresses that without improved training, better service conditions and clearer mobilisation rules, the reforms are unlikely to resolve the crisis.
Vox Ukraine
Your attention is a battlefield: how information overload becomes a weapon
The author argues that in an environment of constant digital saturation, information overload itself becomes a strategic tool of influence. The sheer volume and speed of content fragments attention, weakens critical evaluation, and enables manipulation by actors who exploit cognitive fatigue and algorithmic amplification.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Russia is expanding the area under its control around Vovchansk: day 1525 of the war
The article analyses Russia’s continued offensive operations around Vovchansk and intensified air attacks on Ukrainian energy, transport and port infrastructure. It argues that while Russian forces are making territorial gains, they have not changed the overall strategic situation. The text also highlights shortages of Patriot missiles and Ukraine’s continued long-range drone strikes against Russian energy and military targets.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The changing military balance in the Black Sea: a Ukrainian perspective
The paper describes how the military balance in the Black Sea has shifted in Ukraine’s favour despite Russia’s initial naval dominance. It argues that Ukrainian naval drones and long-range strikes forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to limit operations and relocate many vessels from Crimea. The text highlights that Ukraine has partly restored maritime exports through a new Black Sea corridor, although Russia still retains the ability to threaten ports and infrastructure with missile attacks.
Peace Research Institute Oslo
This review examines the essential role of local actors in Ukraine in saving lives and addressing needs. It argues that partnership models between international non-governmental organisations (INGOs) and local actors can amplify the impact and visibility of such locally-led humanitarian responses. To meaningfully partner with local actors, INGOs need to address structural barriers within their own systems.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
Between war and return: scenarios for the future of Ukraine and its refugees
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 not only led to the largest and most destructive war in Europe since World War II, but also led to the continent’s biggest displacement crisis since that time. The report outlines four future scenarios for Ukraine and analyses their impact on migration patterns.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Migration shocks and voting: evidence from Ukrainian migration to Poland
This paper examines how Russia’s aggression against Ukraine triggered two massive inflows of Ukrainians into Poland: conflict-induced labour migration from 2014 onward and a mass refugee inflow after the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022. The brief studies how local exposure to each shock reshaped voting in Poland.
Danish Institute for International Studies
Women's organisations are cracking the glass ceiling in war-time Ukraine
This brief states that research from conflict‑affected contexts shows that the societal and political ruptures caused by war can, over the medium term, open new spaces for advancing gender equality. In Ukraine, women’s organisations have sought to seize such openings, even as they respond to the immediate harms of war. The brief examines how Ukrainian women’s organisations navigate these constraints and opportunities in their efforts to strengthen women’s rights.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Racing against the next winter: Ukraine’s energy sector after the heating season
The article analyses how Ukraine is racing to rebuild energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks before the next winter. It argues that EU electricity imports and increased gas reserves helped prevent a collapse of the system despite severe shortages.
Vox Ukraine
Global signals — Implications for Ukraine. Outlook for 2026
The author argues that 2026 will be shaped by global instability driven by the Middle East conflict, which disrupts energy markets and trade and feeds directly into economic uncertainty for Ukraine, affecting key sectors, such as agriculture and industry, under different escalation scenarios.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
High unemployment and labour shortages: paradoxes in Ukraine’s wartime labour market
The publication notes that the war has created a paradox in Ukraine's labour market: high unemployment coexists with severe labour shortages. Mobilisation, emigration and population displacement have reduced the available workforce, and employers are struggling to fill vacancies. The publication highlights growing skills mismatches and the need for labour-market reforms to support economic recovery.
Chatham House
The brief states that numerous Western sanctions packages – twenty now from the EU – have not decisively turned the course of the war. Russia deleveraged to reduce its vulnerabilities to Western sanctions and built up its foreign exchange reserves to record levels. It also used its leverage over energy supplies to Europe to manipulate energy markets and earn windfall profits in the months leading up to and after the invasion.
Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (Polish Institute of International Affairs)
Russia's shadow fleet under pressure: boosting the impact of Western sanctions
The report describes the global network that allows the Kremlin to finance its war machine: over 700 tankers without reliable insurance, special forces operations on the high seas, and opaque financial mechanisms that allow Western sanctions to be circumvented.
Chatham House
How a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire could imperil Ukrainian and European security
This research paper examines the extent to which Europe, for the sake of its own security, needs to build yet more substantive agency and investment into its partnership with Ukraine. It underlines how Russia could exploit a badly constructed ceasefire, leading to even greater threats to the continent’s security and stability. It also highlights the need for countries across Europe to secure fundamental improvements in their capacity to contain and deter such threats.
Danish Institute for International Studies
From wartime solidarity to deeper economic partnership between Denmark and Ukraine
This brief discusses how Denmark’s military leadership in support for Ukraine has not yet translated into economic cooperation in the shape of expanded trade or investment. Targeted trade and investment paired with strategic labour market measures could convert wartime solidarity into a deeper economic partnership.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Stronger EU support for Ukraine: reflections on the EU’s toolbox and processes
The Ukraine Facility is the EU’s most ambitious external financial instrument ever, but it has some unresolved tensions. The authors examine the EU framework for Ukraine and argue that the numbers only tell half of the story. The real test lies in whether its governance, conditionality and financing model can sustain a long-term strategic partnership with Ukraine.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
How polarised is support for Ukraine across Europe?
In this brief the authors use microdata from Eurobarometer covering over 185 000 respondents to evaluate trends in the EU. They show that support for Ukraine remained relatively high and stable across Europe from 2022 to 2024. This finding is consistent with other surveys that report resilient support among Europeans despite pessimism about the war’s likely outcome.
Atlantic Council
Ukraine’s experience can teach Europe how to defend against Russia
The paper argues that Europe must accelerate military modernisation by drawing lessons from Ukraine’s experience in drone warfare, digital innovation, and rapid battlefield adaptation. It highlights how Ukraine has developed new command structures, defence technology ecosystems, and data-driven military systems that have enhanced its resilience against Russia. It concludes that European countries should integrate these lessons into their defence planning and work more closely with Ukraine to strengthen their own security capabilities.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Build with Ukraine: Kyiv’s new approach to defence industrial cooperation with European partners
The article analyses Kyiv’s new ‘Build with Ukraine’ approach to defence industrial cooperation with European partners. It states that Ukraine seeks joint arms production, combining European financing and technologies with Ukrainian battlefield-tested expertise, particularly in drones and electronic warfare. It also highlights Kyiv’s objective of strengthening its position within European security structures while preventing a ‘drain of Ukrainian know-how’.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
A new Ostpolitik: Ukraine as a priority of the Merz government
The brief discusses the Merz government's new Ostpolitik, which places Ukraine at the centre of German foreign and security policy. It explores how Russia's aggression has reshaped Germany's strategic priorities and strengthened support for Ukraine. The article also examines the implications of this shift for European security and Germany's role in Europe.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Rising tensions within Russia’s ruling elite: a mounting challenge for the Kremlin
The article examines growing tensions within Russia's ruling elite amid the ongoing war against Ukraine. Economic pressures and competition for resources are increasing rivalries between political, security, and business groups. While the Kremlin remains stable, these divisions reveal the challenges facing Russia's leadership under wartime conditions.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The paper argues that, as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, ensuring accountability for Russian aggression remains a crucial challenge despite changing geopolitical circumstances. It examines the current state of international accountability efforts and the impact of recent shifts in US policy. It also highlights the difficulties faced in attempting to hold states accountable for acts of aggression under the existing international legal framework. It then uses Ukraine's experience to illustrate the broader challenges facing international justice and efforts to uphold the rules-based international order.
14.04.2026
Center for European Policy Analysis
The heart of war: Ukraine’s key battlefield system
Ukraine’s drones have stolen the limelight, but its Delta battlefield system is the beating heart of its warfighting capabilities. The paper argues that Western armies still have time to learn lessons from Delta.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Aces high: Zelenskyy plays his hand
It turns out that Ukraine has many more cards to play in its fight for national survival than many had thought, according to this brief, and President Zelenskyy is playing them with some skill. Ukraine has more strategic advantages than expected, and it is leveraging them effectively. Ukraine regularly succeeds in intercepting 90% of Russian drones. Its ability to intercept Russian ballistic missiles has been more variable, however, and depends entirely on limited supplies of interceptors made in the US and France.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Rosjanie budują swój system Starlink. 1490. dzień wojny
The paper notes that Russian forces have continued offensive operations in the Donbas, making advances near Sloviansk. Russia is developing its own ‘Starlink-like’ satellite system to support military operations. Ukraine has conducted drone strikes on Russian fuel and industrial infrastructure, while drones and electronic warfare play an increasing role in the conflict.
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish institute of international affairs)
Ukraine is losing the war: implications for Europe
This briefing paper claims that since President Trump’s re-election, Ukraine and its European allies have quietly scaled back their objectives in countering Russia’s aggression. It adds that Ukraine’s fate illustrates how regional and global powers are abandoning established international rules. European states are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of this erosion of the rules-based order, as their security strategies rely heavily on agreements and cooperative frameworks.
Chatham House
Holding state-sponsored hackers and other cyber proxies to account
The war in Ukraine demonstrates that cyber operations and online influence campaigns are now integral to modern warfare. This paper proposes approaches that states anywhere can use to counter cyber proxies. It explores how proxies work, maps the Russian cyber proxy ecosystem and considers how international and domestic law can be leveraged to bring cyber proxies – whether of Russian or other origin – to account.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Putin’s legacy: nations of widows and orphans
The brief argues that ‘Vladimir Putin’s attempt to destroy the Ukrainian people through an unprovoked war is also wiping out entire ethnic minorities across Russia’. The demographic crises in Ukraine and Russia, already evident in the 1990s, are getting steadily worse thanks to the direct and indirect impacts of the war. Ukraine’s Institute of Demography estimates that by 2037, the country’s population will have declined from 52 million in the 1990s to 30 million, and even fewer by 2050. Some analysts estimate that the population will number only 15 million by 2100.
Vox Ukraine
Sociology between the lines: what and how Ukrainian media report about public opinion in wartime
The article argues that Ukraine lives under conditions of war, including information attacks, where data manipulation is not an abstract threat but a daily reality. Under such conditions, transparent sociology could become an ally for both the media and citizens – but only if it is presented honestly and in full.
Atlantic Council
Wartime Ukraine offers global lessons on the future of cyber resilience
Ukraine’s experience under sustained Russian cyberattacks has transformed it into a model of cyber resilience. Constant pressure has driven rapid coordination between government, the private sector and civil society, embedding resilience into the state’s digital infrastructure. The article highlights lessons for partners, including integration of cyber resilience into governance, alignment with EU and NATO standards and investment in long-term capacity building.
Atlantic Council
Iran war highlights Ukraine’s rapid rise to drone superpower status
The brief notes that Russia’s invasion has transformed Ukraine into a global leader in drone warfare. Drawing on battlefield experience, Ukraine has rapidly developed a large domestic drone industry and innovative interceptor technologies capable of countering Russian drone attacks.
Atlantic Council
Drone superpower Ukraine is an ideal tech partner for the Gulf states
The note argues that Ukraine’s wartime innovation has turned it into a leading drone technology hub, creating opportunities for strategic cooperation with Gulf states. It highlights complementarities between Ukraine’s engineering expertise and the Gulf’s capital and infrastructure, particularly in defence and dual-use technologies.
Vox Ukraine
A supply-constrained economy: implications for monetary policy
The author notes that while the war of the ‘Muscovite quasi-empire’ against Ukraine, the surge in oil prices following the announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the post-Covid inflationary spike and the oil shocks of the 1970s may appear to be unrelated events, from a macroeconomic perspective, they have a great deal in common – including, at the very least, oil price dynamics in 1973, 1979, 2021–2022 and 2026.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
The report points out that Russia has multiple weaknesses across its political, social and economic systems. These vulnerabilities are being exacerbated by the rising costs of the country’s war against Ukraine and the cumulative impact of Western sanctions. The report also highlights both short- and long-term negative trends, particularly in the economy and society. Overall, these dynamics are increasingly working against Russia’s stability and resilience.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Względna stabilizacja. Ukraińska gospodarka u progu piątego roku wojny
The commentary highlights the relative stabilisation of Ukraine’s economy at the start of another year of the Russia-Ukraine war. It notes gradual improvement in macroeconomic indicators, despite ongoing structural challenges and war-related disruptions. Economic activity remains uneven, with some sectors recovering while others continue to struggle.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Anchoring Ukraine’s postwar recovery with a US-Ukraine free trade agreement|
The brief explains that a US‑Ukraine free trade agreement could anchor Ukraine’s post-war recovery by encouraging private investment through investor protections and regulatory transparency. It would provide market access to the US and complement EU integration, despite political and practical challenges.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Draining fuel from the Russian war machine: oil, gas, and sanctions outlook
This report argues that Western efforts to curtail Russia’s economic and technological capacity have been incomplete. Sanctions are not as stringent as they could be, and enforcement gaps limit their overall impact. Against this backdrop, the report seeks to estimate Russia’s potential hydrocarbon export revenues through 2027 to assess its capacity to sustain the war and its broader coercive influence over Europe.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
Whatever it takes… to do what? Het gebrek aan een Europese theory of victory in Oekraïne
This brief identifies three core interests for Europe: a strong Ukraine; preservation of the international rule of law; and a robust security architecture with a secure and autonomous Europe. Europe has policy options to achieve these goals, but each comes with disadvantages, such as higher costs and risks.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The paper suggests that Czechia’s 2026 budget cuts humanitarian and development support for Ukraine, reducing funding for bilateral cooperation by almost half and raising questions about whether economic pragmatism can sustain a partnership once defined by political solidarity. Long seen as one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters in Europe, Czechia’s new populist government appears to be shifting direction.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Antagonistic information threats: lessons from Ukraine
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine highlights how modern conflict increasingly relies on antagonistic information threats alongside military force. This policy brief examines how such threats operate and what lessons they offer for European resilience.
Vox Ukraine
War beyond borders: how does it echo across Europe?
The author argues that the ramifications of the war in Ukraine may be altering public opinion in countries that do not share borders with Ukraine or Russia – that is, where the threat would be expected to feel less immediate – with the most notable pattern being observed in attitudes toward immigrants.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
The last stronghold: Hungary can complete Europe’s energy decoupling from Russia
This analysis examines how sanctions exemptions, infrastructure lock-ins and regulatory loopholes continue to allow Russian fossil fuels to flow into Central and South East Europe. It assesses Hungary’s continued reliance on Russian crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline, its long-term gas dependence via TurkStream, and the geopolitical implications of the Russian-financed Paks II nuclear project, while also highlighting how emerging regional infrastructure projects and market distortions risk creating new channels for sanctions circumvention.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The Iran war deals Ukraine new diplomatic cards
The brief highlights that at first glance, the US-Israeli attacks on Iran would appear to have detrimental implications for Ukraine, as Western attention shifts and stocks of US-made Patriot missiles are depleted, seemingly favouring Russia. Yet the exponential rise in demand for drone interceptors among Gulf states creates a strategic opportunity for Kyiv: Ukraine’s advanced defence-industrial capacity and unparalleled military know-how could generate durable leverage in Washington that may outlast Russia’s short-term gains.
Stockholm international peace research institute
A budget for a fifth year of war: military spending in Russia's budget for 2026
This paper first analyses the drafting of the 2026-28 Russian federal budget and the parallel amendments made to the 2025 budget. It describes and consolidates all the elements of military and other war-related spending within the budget, giving updated estimates of Russian military expenditure in 2022-25 and a first estimate for 2026. After explaining the reasons behind the planned decrease in Russia’s military expenditure in 2026, the paper concludes by assessing Russia’s economic prospects in 2026 and beyond.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Państwa bałtyckie wobec incydentów z ukraińskimi dronami
The analysis looks at how recent drone-related incidents linked to the Russia-Ukraine war have affected the Baltic states. It highlights growing security concerns and the challenges these incidents pose for national defence systems. The response from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia reflects both caution and continued political support for Ukraine. Overall, the situation underscores the broader regional implications of the war.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Drony za pociski: Kijów wobec wojny na Bliskim Wschodzie
The paper examines how Ukraine is responding to the war in the Middle East. It explains Kyiv’s efforts to leverage its experience with drones and counter-drone systems in exchange for air defence support. It also highlights both risks and opportunities arising from shifting international dynamics.
10.3.2026
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
Mapping the TechMil war: eight lessons from the Ukrainian battlefield
This report traces the evolution of key technologies that have emerged or developed during the four years of the war in Ukraine. It aims to analyse the lessons that NATO can draw from this evolution in order to strengthen the country’s defensive capabilities and prepare for a modern, large‑scale conventional war.
Atlantic Council
After four years of Russia’s invasion, time to stop underestimating Ukraine
According to the article, Russia’s full-scale invasion has lasted far longer than the Kremlin anticipated and has revealed fundamental miscalculations about Ukraine’s resilience and military capabilities. The article highlights how Ukrainian resistance, military reforms since 2014 and rapid defence-technology innovation have enabled the country to withstand Russia’s much larger armed forces. It also stresses Ukraine’s growing expertise in drone warfare and its increasingly important role in European security.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Czwarty rok wojny w analizach Ośrodka Studiów Wschodnich
The author argues that Ukraine has survived the fourth year of the war, despite Russia maintaining the initiative and making limited advances without achieving major strategic results. Ukraine has managed to hold its defensive lines and prevent a collapse of the front. During the winter of 2025/2026, Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to trigger a humanitarian crisis. At the same time, renewed negotiations initiated by Donald Trump have not produced results, because Russia is maintaining its maximalist demands.
European Policy Centre
Four years of war: Ukraine has held the line. It is time for Europe to secure the future
Four years ago, Russia launched a brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, aiming to subjugate a sovereign state and challenge European security. This compendium marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion by documenting ongoing aggression, evolving European support and the resilience of a nation under siege. It offers both reflection on and analysis of a war that continues to shape the future of Europe and beyond.
Centre for European Reform
Four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: four lessons for European leaders
The author argues that Europeans can still learn the right lessons from the four years of war in Ukraine, and act on them. He suggests that US attempts to make ‘peace’ with Russia at Ukraine’s expense will not deliver a durable settlement; Europe, including Ukraine, has a better chance of achieving a lasting peace by tilting the balance of economic and military advantage against Putin.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Europe needs a military operations center in Ukraine
The briefing proposes that the continent’s military forces should build a command centre in Ukraine to help fight Russia and form the nucleus of a post-US operational command, as Russia wages both a brutal war in Ukraine and a persistent hybrid war across Europe. This grey-zone conflict spans air, space and cyber domains, using proxies to destabilise and undermine European resolve, and will intensify rather than cease after any peace deal. Western capitals must prepare for the ‘war after the war’, recognising that Russia regards the end of hostilities as no such thing.
Atlantic Council
Vladimir Putin is trapped in a war he cannot win but dare not end
The paper argues that ongoing negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have achieved little progress, largely because the Kremlin continues to pursue maximalist objectives. It also points to the strategic deadlock facing Moscow, considering the heavy battlefield losses and limited territorial gains, despite years of fighting.
Vox Ukraine
The mathematics of war: how to tell real losses from propaganda
Both Russia and Ukraine classify information about their own losses, while actively publishing data on the enemy’s losses. In this “fog of war,” where every figure becomes a tool of information warfare, uncovering the truth requires scientific methods. This article examines, for example, who is lying, who is exaggerating, and where an objective picture can be found. It focuses on three key questions: whether Russian military briefings can be trusted, the war’s real cost to Russia and what can reliably be said about Ukraine’s losses.
Центр Разумкова (Razumkov Center)
Reintegration of Ukrainians: cultural-identity and socio-economic aspects of return
This analytical report aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the conditions, barriers and potential for the return of Ukrainians and to make recommendations for the state, local self-government, international partners and civil society. Particular attention is paid to the interconnection between cultural-identity and socio-economic factors, as the balance between them will determine the success of future reintegration and Ukraine’s ability to leverage the experience gained for post-war recovery and development.
Council on Foreign Relations
The briefing states that as the war in Ukraine continues, the country’s humanitarian needs are mounting, while funding is vanishing. The collapse of key aid programmes has exposed a critical gap in the international response – one that the United Nations cannot fill alone.
Danish Institute for International Studies
Forced displacement from Ukraine: the potential role of migration in Ukraine's future reconstruction
The brief states that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the most significant population movements in recent European history. It adds that the loss of national population is not just a demographic challenge, but is also a human capital problem that presents challenges for Ukraine’s reconstruction and future development.
Danish Institute for International Studies
Resilient action in wartime: diaspora engagement by Ukrainians in Denmark
The note points out that regardless of how the war ends, Ukraine’s diaspora will be an important actor in the country’s future. Sustained and long-term support for diaspora engagement is therefore critical for Ukraine’s reconstruction, development and cultural survival.
Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations
Legitimacy under fire: how Ukraine governs without elections
Ukraine is facing a legitimacy dilemma. With war precluding elections, Kyiv must govern without electoral renewal, even as the need for democratic legitimacy grows, the author notes. He adds that the government’s legitimacy is the basis for Ukraine’s wartime resilience and is essential for credible peace negotiations and EU accession. In 2025, non-electoral accountability worked when civil society and EU conditionality jointly reversed setbacks in the fight against corruption. Yet, accountability remains reactive, and centralised power requires safeguards. For Brussels, safeguarding legitimacy means opening negotiations on cluster 1 (fundamentals) to enshrine rule-of-law benchmarks, and applying strict conditionality. For Kyiv, this means protecting state institutions.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Ukraine 2036: how today’s investments will shape tomorrow’s security
The report states that Ukraine is at a turning point, and its future will be decided now, just as Europe must decide its own future. By 2036, either Ukraine becomes a secure, integrated part of a European economic space with a predictable flank, or Europe faces a hardened grey-zone frontier at the EU’s border that drains budgets and political bandwidth.
Council on Foreign Relations
The briefing points out that Ukraine’s wartime innovation has transformed its defence industry into a rapidly scaling hub for drones, autonomy and battlefield technology. Integrating Ukrainian firms into European and NATO procurement is not an act of charity but a strategic investment in collective security, as the report highlights.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Pozorny „rozejm energetyczny”. 1441. dzień wojny
The authors argue that the “energy truce” between Russia and Ukraine is largely symbolic, as both sides continue attacking energy infrastructure. Russia carries out missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy system, while Ukraine targets Russian refineries and fuel facilities. On the frontline, Russia maintains the initiative and makes slow advances without a strategic breakthrough. The war therefore continues as a conflict of attrition.
Real Instituto Elcano
Ucrania y la Administración Trump: la guerra como prueba del liderazgo estadounidense
The briefing notes that the war in Ukraine has become a major test of US leadership, exposing the importance of industrial capacity, political cohesion and strategic credibility. It argues that the Trump administration has shifted the US approach from open-ended military support toward a more transactional strategy, focused on negotiations and burden-sharing with allies.
Atlantic Council
Ukraine’s women may hold the key to the country’s future security
The briefing notes that Russia’s full-scale invasion has accelerated changes in Ukrainian society, particularly regarding the role of women in national defence and resilience. It highlights women’s increasing participation in the armed forces, civil defence and humanitarian efforts, as well as their growing contribution to reconstruction and governance. The briefing argues that Ukraine’s long-term security will depend on mobilising the country’s full human potential, which will include integrating women more systematically into defence planning and institutional leadership.
Brookings Institution
Stiffening European sanctions against the Russian oil trade
According to this paper, tipping the balance in the ongoing war in favour of Ukraine requires heightened pressure on the Russian economy and its sources of tax revenues. It is suggested that carefully coordinated, specifically targeted and legally unassailable sanctions by the UK and Europe would give Ukraine greater leverage at the negotiating table, increasing the chances of a just and lasting peace.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine’s trade and investment structures over the past three years and assesses their implications for Ukraine’s future competitiveness and for EU-Ukraine economic relations, with particular attention to the EU’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly fragmented global economy. It shows a rapid reorientation of Ukraine’s goods exports towards the EU, driven by emergency trade liberalisation and alternative logistics routes, alongside a marked decline in exports to China.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Scaling innovation: Ukraine’s military and defense-industrial integration in the new context
The policy briefing describes how four years of full-scale war, marked by widespread destruction and human loss, have made Ukraine a battlefield, but also a laboratory of defence innovation, where agility, improvisation and speed of adaptation are essential for survival. The defence-industrial integration of Ukrainian innovation with European production and funding capacity bears huge potential for Europe’s collective security. Increased cooperation would give the EU and Ukraine greater autonomy from the US and improve future deterrence against Russian aggression.
Real Instituto Elcano
Ucrania, entre la guerra y la paz injusta
The briefing notes that Ukraine faces a dilemma between a prolonged war that exhausts the country and its allies and a negotiated peace that may not fully meet its strategic objectives. It argues that the conflict reflects incompatible political aims, with Russia seeking to block Ukraine’s Western integration, while Kyiv fights for sovereignty and security guarantees. The analysis highlights growing war fatigue and emphasises that Europe could influence the outcome through security guarantees, EU integration and reconstruction support.
Tænketanken EUROPA
From emergency aid to defence integration: Europe's structural turn in Ukraine support
As US support falters, Europe is shifting from ad hoc aid to long-term defence integration, reshaping the durability and scale of support for Kyiv. The article states that Europe has now assumed the primary burden of support, European support is growing but remains unevenly distributed and the most important shift is structural, not just financial.
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Tschechiens Verteidigungs- und Ukrainepolitik unter der neuen Regierung Babiš – ein erster Eindruck
The security policy environment in which the Czech Republic has found itself since Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has led to a change in defence planning in recent years. As the briefing argues, under the government of Petr Fiala, the Czech Republic was prepared to gradually increase defence spending and left no doubt about its support for Ukraine. It concludes that the new coalition government is charting a new course in many areas.
Центързаизследваненадемокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Strategic hinterland: China’s support for Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine
This report examines the evolving role of the People’s Republic of China in enabling Russia’s war economy in occupied Ukrainian territories. Chinese state-owned enterprises and private corporations have expanded their activities across Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk by supplying heavy machinery and participating in strategic infrastructure projects that reinforce Russia’s military and economic presence in these regions.
Real Instituto Elcano
La guerra en Ucrania, el mito fundacional de la nueva entidad rusa
The war in Ukraine has become a founding myth of a redefined Russian national identity, structured around entrenched anti-Western narratives and a sense of historical grievance. The article argues that anti-Westernism has shifted from rhetoric to a core organising principle of Russia’s political and social system, strengthening regime resilience and public willingness to accept long-term sacrifice. It also highlights how wartime dynamics, economic adaptation despite sanctions, cultural reaffirmation and tighter state narrative control are consolidating a new “social contract” around the state.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
Behind the ballots and the bluster: decoding votes on Ukraine resolutions at the UN
This report discusses a clustering of voting patterns, which can help identify both the nations that hold fixed positions and those who vary in their voting behaviour and stated positions. A better understanding of the motivations behind these positions is crucial for a diplomatic strategy that aims to convince them to support Ukraine.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Ukraińskie ataki na ropociąg CPC: perspektywy sektora naftowego Kazachstanu
Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have disrupted a key route used to export Kazakh oil through Russia. The situation has highlighted Kazakhstan’s strong dependence on this pipeline for most of its oil exports. Limited alternative routes make it difficult to redirect supplies quickly. Prolonged disruptions could affect Kazakhstan’s economy and reshape its export strategy.
09.02.2026
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Winning by losing: the logic of attrition in the Russo-Ukrainian war
The war in Ukraine has become a test of Russia’s structural resilience, revealing recurring patterns of imperial overreach and internal weaknesses, the paper states. Despite tactical adjustments, Russia faces economic stagnation, demographic decline and rising tensions within its elites. These trends suggest that the war's outcome could depend on the internal stability of the Russian regime, making a negotiated settlement a “potential strategic necessity”.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
The Trump administration and the Russia-Ukraine war: in search of an agreement with Moscow
The commentary examines the Trump administration’s recent engagement in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and presents three possible scenarios predicting Washington’s policy on the war in Ukraine.
International Crisis Group
Amid Ukraine’s battlefield struggles, Zelenskyy’s domestic legacy is a work in progress
The report points out that, since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has faced domestic political and governance challenges, even under fire. However, the country’s political truce will not last forever. It suggests that the president should begin laying the groundwork for the country’s future and maintain both signals and actions that clearly demonstrate his commitment to democratic, rights-respecting governance.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
You only live twice: financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine
The task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. According to the paper, the earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the EU and NATO offers a template that relies on massive foreign direct investment and public structural funds. This approach could be further refined by the Ukrainian government as a historic opportunity for Ukraine to survive and prosper.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
The European Union and the war in Ukraine: more money, but not more Europe
Despite the direct threat from Russia, EU member states have proven unwilling to harness their union to ensure a common defence and instead have responded individually, the brief states. It analyses the drivers of military aid to Ukraine and argues that the EU, as a single institution, will likely be reduced to a peripheral role in providing military defence and national security for Europe.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
Russia, Europe and the danger of strategic reassurance
European debates about the perception of Russia’s threat are often framed as a binary choice. On the one hand, alarmist voices warn of an imminent military danger requiring rapid mobilisation. On the other, narratives of reassurance highlight Russia’s economic weakness, demographic decline and military shortcomings in Ukraine, concluding that European fears are overstated. The author adds that both positions are analytically insufficient, but for different reasons. Alarmism misrepresents real threats, while reassurance misdiagnoses them entirely. Alarmist assessments are not necessarily wrong in their basic diagnosis that Russia constitutes a strategic threat.
Center for Social and Economic Research
The publication examines how much fiscal room Russia still has under wartime conditions. It focuses on public finances, debt, inflation and the broader macroeconomic effects of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.
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