Think Tank reports on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine
03.10.2024
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Two years of Russian all-out aggression against Ukraine: state of play and future scenarios
This food-for-thought paper analyses the current state of Russia’s and Ukraine’s strategic and military affairs. It argues that it is imperative for Ukraine's OSCE partners to devise a comprehensive strategy that empowers Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory in the war, followed by sustained efforts to permanently degrade Russia's military capabilities, thereby preventing future aggression.
International Crisis Group
A fraught path forward for Ukraine’s liberated territories
According to the report, even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands freed by its army from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is a lot Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once again.
Elcano
Estado de la guerra en Ucrania: ¿paz o escalada?
This analysis examines the three levels of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, as well as the prospects for peace or escalation, and the failure to meet the two main expectations of Western leaders: the collapse of the Russian economy or an uprising against Vladimir Putin's regime.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
¿Es la paz en Ucrania posible?
Early this year Ukraine launched a surprise offensive inside Russia to combat internal and external defeatism. This paper suggests that, even in this context, peace seems increasingly elusive as Russia continues to seek a military resolution. The Kremlin's conditions for peace include the recognition of the annexed provinces and the neutralisation of Ukraine.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Capacidades militares rusas y economía de guerra en el conflicto en Ucrania
Russian military capabilities and the war economy in the conflict in Ukraine
The article states that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to a shift towards a war economy. The Kremlin has mobilised resources and stimulated the defence sector in order to sustain the war effort and reinforce its military capabilities. This policy aims to address both the Ukrainian conflict and the NATO border threat. The article examines the impact of this policy on the conflict and on European security.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: Russia’s attempts to undermine mobilisation
The brief explains how Russia conducts information and psychological operations to undermine and discredit Ukraine’s mobilisation, damage the morale of Ukrainian citizens, and weaken their willingness to defend their state. The Russian military and special services distribute both real and fake photographs and video content on social networks. Moreover, Russia produces malign content by using current and former male Ukrainian citizens who have voluntarily switched sides.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine
The brief highlights Russia's efforts to impose a policy of ‘Russification’ on the Ukrainian territories under its occupation, with the ultimate goal of transforming them into a heavily militarised stronghold against Ukraine. Studying Russia’s occupation policy helps in understanding the actions of the invader and helps the Ukrainian authorities develop action plans for the period after the end of the war and the liberation of these territories.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Russia-Ukraine war: a study in analytic failure
The war of aggression in Ukraine has led to a shift in Russia's relations with the West and its global standing. Russia's actions have resulted in severe economic sanctions and international isolation. The ongoing war has also raised concerns about Ukraine's sovereignty and the potential for further escalation. The report explores possible scenarios for the conflict's future and the implications of the conflict for global security and geopolitics.
European Council on Foreign Relations
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This report examines how Ukrainian and European perceptions of sovereignty have been shaped by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It highlights diverging views on sovereignty, with Ukraine prioritising territorial integrity and Europeans focusing on human rights and the rule of law. Moreover, it states that Ukrainians want more arms in order to win the war, while Europeans are seeking to provide enough weapons to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position.
Council on Foreign Relations
How much U.S. aid is going to Ukraine?
The article argues that the US aid has gone towards providing the weapons systems, training, and intelligence that the Ukrainian commanders need to defend their country against Russia, which has one of the world’s most powerful armies. Most Western analysts say that the military aid provided by the US and other allies has played a pivotal role in Ukraine’s defence and counteroffensive against Russia.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Zelensky, Yermak and Ukraine’s wartime governance
The article outlines the system of governance in Ukraine that has resulted from the extraordinary war circumstances. It states that there is a concentration of power the hands of the head of state and his office, while the roles of the Ukrainian parliament and cabinet of ministers have been eroded.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Gendered disinformation targeting Ukrainian women refugees in Bulgaria
The paper states that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has further exposed Bulgaria's vulnerability to Kremlin-backed disinformation, an understudied aspect of which is gender dimension. This analysis examines the disinformation campaigns which exploit the themes of sex, gender, and national identity in order to marginalise and exclude women and minorities, thereby reinforcing misogyny, homophobia, and transphobia within society.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
To return or not? Ukrainian women’s experiences of internal displacement
Ukraine’s internally displaced women face a complex dilemma: whether to return home or integrate into their host communities. By making their voices heard, the article helps observers and policy-makers better understand diverse challenges in this context as well as possible ways forward.
Centre for European Policy Studies
Explaining Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction: what, how and when?
This explainer aims to review what is at stake, how Ukraine’s reconstruction has been addressed so far, and what conditions and timelines are necessary for scaling up efforts. It looks at the immediate and long-term needs for Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction; examines the existing framework for coordinating and implementing rebuilding efforts; describes potential funding sources, and analyses the financial support already committed for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The Russian Central Bank’s frozen assets: a “Godsend” for Kyiv’s military assistance?
The author points out that the EU’s recent decision to allocate extraordinary revenues derived from frozen Russian Central Bank assets to military assistance for Ukraine not only represents a demonstration of strong political will, but also a potential mechanism to circumvent existing limitations in the EU decision-making processes.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
Countering Russian hybrid interference with EU sanctions
The article examines how EU sanctions aim to counter Russian hybrid interference, especially disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks. Since 2022, the EU has progressively imposed sanctions on Russian media outlets and figures spreading false narratives in order to weaken European unity. The focus has shifted from reacting to disinformation to proactively targeting financial and political networks in support of Russia's information warfare. This includes banning Russian funds to EU-based organisations involved in spreading malign influence.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies) / Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft
Are western trade sanctions effective?
The authors argue that the effectiveness of trade sanctions crucially hinges on the degree to which missing high-quality Western goods can be replaced with lower-quality products from third countries. They suggest that in 2023, the share of common high-priority items under sanctions that Russia was able to obtain ranged from 60% to 170% of the 2021 level, depending on underlying assumptions regarding the extent of the deterioration in quality.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Sanctions hypocrisy: G7+ imports EUR 1.8 bn of Turkish oil products made from Russian crude
This report states that G7+ countries imported €1.8 billion worth of oil products from Turkish refineries using Russian crude in the first half of 2024, generating 750 million in tax revenue for the Kremlin. It suggests that, in other to strengthen sanctions, importing countries should ban oil products from refineries that use Russian crude, which would stifle Russia's ability to find new markets.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working
The article looks at the consequences of the tighter financial sanctions recently imposed on Russia by the US and the EU. It argues that the stance of China - which, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has become Russia’s primary economic partner - is crucial to the effectiveness of the restrictions.
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Ukraine has large reserves of raw materials, the exploitation of which could significantly improve the country's economic situation and the financing of reconstruction. Some of these raw materials are essential for the production of weapons systems. The text suggests that increased cooperation with the EU could integrate Ukraine into the European internal market and promote its own production of military technologies.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
Ukraine during the Russian war of aggression: the nexus between internal developments and EU accession
The Russian war of aggression has deepened relations between the EU and Ukraine. This is first and foremost reflected in Ukraine’s EU candidate status. Despite the war, Ukraine is continuing to pursue a large number of reforms, even if the pace has slowed down since February 2022. The brief suggests that in order to deepen Ukraine-EU ties, it is crucial to strengthen the rule of law not only within Ukraine, but also across the EU and its member states.
Centre for Eastern Studies
How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance
The article describes Ukraine’s relations with NATO since the country’s independence in 1991. Ukraine's NATO membership is contingent on its ability to win the war against Russia. To achieve this, Ukraine requires significant military aid and support from its partners. A successful partnership will not only help Ukraine win the war but also pave the way for NATO membership.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
Results of the NATO summit in Washington
The article discusses the outcomes of the NATO Summit in Washington, focusing on reinforced collective defence and long-term support for Ukraine. NATO established a new coordination mechanism for lethal aid and training, committing at least $40 billion by 2025. While Ukraine's path to NATO membership remains ‘irreversible’, an invitation to join is unlikely while the waris still going on.
Hertie School - Jacques Delors Centre
Ukraine recovery conference - seeking recovery without securing peace
This paper deals with the June Ukraine recovery conference. The conference hosted over 3,400 participants from 60 countries, representing public, private and civil society sectors, gathered in Berlin to discuss how to coordinate the war-time recovery, reconstruction and modernisation of Ukraine. It is part of a wider international strategy to bolster the country’s war-time recovery and to align its reconstruction with EU reforms.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
The article argues that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has led to diverging paths between the US and EU in their approaches to deterring Russia. In spite of shared goals, the two allies have different strategies, with the US prioritising military deterrence and the EU focusing on economic sanctions.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Getting Ukraine’s security agreements right
Ukraine has signed several bilateral security agreements which contain commitments aimed at ensuring the country’s self-defence and deterrence capacity. The article analyses the content of these agreements, pointing out that they have to balance Ukraine's needs with the concerns of its Western partners. A well-designed agreement could enhance Ukraine's security, facilitate its integration into Western institutions, and promote regional stability.
European Policy Centre
Russia’s war against Ukraine: lessons on infrastructure security and new technologies
In 2022, Russia launched a major cyberattack on Ukraine, followed by a full-scale war of aggression. According to the paper, this event highlights the need for the EU to bolster its cybersecurity, particularly in leveraging AI and protecting industrial control systems. The EU should establish a plan to address these weaknesses and enhance its critical infrastructure security.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
Integrating Ukraine’s energy sector into the EU
This policy brief discusses efforts by the EU, the US and other partners to support the restructuring of Ukraine’s energy sector. It argues that energy transition can be an early win in a process of gradual integration into the EU. Ukraine can be considered as a blueprint for more decentralised electricity systems running on renewable energy in order to increase energy security in the face of disruptions.
Centre for European Policy Studies
Mapping the use of artificial intelligence in priority sectors and the competitiveness of Ukraine
This report contains a data-driven mapping of Ukraine’s specialisation in artificial intelligence (AI) with a focus on the priority sectors chosen by the Ukrainian government in view of the reconstruction. It uses existing data on patents, venture capital investment for start-up funding and scientific publications to build a new, granular picture of global trends in AI, as well as of Ukraine’s competitiveness and specialisation in relation to other European countries.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)
Analysis of the fiscal and health impact of increasing tobacco excise taxes in Ukraine
This policy note presents simulation estimates for the fiscal and health impact of raising tobacco taxes in Ukraine through the tobacco excise tax simulation model. It outlines two scenarios for tax reform, which differ in terms of the scale and type of the tax increases, and of their application to different tobacco products. Both scenarios reveal clear fiscal and health benefits, thus providing compelling evidence for increasing tobacco taxes in Ukraine.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine series: war and industry
The author discusses how ammunition and equipment supply shortages provided the impetus for the revival of the national defence industry and for the repurposing of civilian industry to meet the wartime needs of the armed forces. He also highlights the importance of harnessing the potential of Ukraine’s vibrant high-tech innovation ecosystem, and attracting foreign investments to expand the country’s defence industrial base and integrate it into the European defence industry.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Europe’s conscription challenge: lessons from Nordic and Baltic states
Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine is a stark reminder to European countries about the importance of manpower. For years Europe’s armed forces have failed to meet their recruitment goals and make military service attractive enough to retain their troops. The paper analyses the military service models in a number of European countries.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)
Austria’s economic relations with the EU eastern partnership countries and Russia
The report states that the dynamics of Austria’s economic relations with the EU Eastern Partnership countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – and with Russia have deviated from those of the EU. During the decade preceding the war in Ukraine, Austria’s trade with the region generally developed less dynamically than EU trade. However, Austrian investments in Russia have shown greater resilience than EU investments, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Fondation Robert Schuman
Europe's defence against Russia
The author argues that supporting Ukraine and strengthening European defence must remain the EU’s priority. Moreover, the EU should define strategies to combat hybrid threats, strengthen cybersecurity measures and increase member states' resilience to disinformation campaigns.
Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors
Les citoyens européens et l’Ukraine deux ans après l’invasion russe
Two years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a survey of European citizens reveals a strong sense of solidarity with Ukraine, with 60% of respondents supporting EU membership for Ukraine (with variations among countries). The invasion is widely seen in all countries as a threat to the EU and there is strong consensus on providing humanitarian assistance, although there is less support for other measures.
Council on Foreign Relations
From the Ukraine conflict to a secure Europe
The author argues that cooperation between European member states, as well as the US’s commitment to its allies in the region, can create a freer, more secure, and more prosperous Europe. He adds that it will take years before there is sufficient trust between the West and Russia to negotiate a Helsinki 2.0 in good faith. Consequently, for the foreseeable future, Europe’s security will have to be grounded in deterrence and defence, European power and unity, and transatlantic cooperation.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Bomba de relojería: Ucrania en la UE, pero no en la OTAN
A time bomb: Ukraine in the EU, but not in NATO
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has global implications, affecting US-China and NATO-EU relations. The brief suggests that the EU should address two key issues: ending the war and exploring defence planning. A potential danger is Ukraine joining the EU but not NATO, giving rise to instability.
Trans European Policy Studies Associations
Bear’s footprint: past threat for the East or future danger for the West?
The paper argues that Western Europe and Eastern Europe hold differing perceptions of Russia’s aggression . Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the airspace violations of NATO countries have elevated the threat, which suggests that all European countries should recognise the proximity of the Russian military threat.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on peace and security in Africa
This policy brief explores the challenges to the international security system highlighted by Russia’s invasion, examines their potential impacts on the continent and proposes measures to mitigate the negative effects.
Chatham House
Understanding Russia’s potential military capabilities in the future is vital to predicting the Kremlin’s ability to continue the war, or even to escalate hostilities. This research paper examines the post-February 2022 combat performance of the Russian forces, identifies weaknesses and resource gaps highlighted by the war, and considers the achievability of Moscow’s plans for military regeneration and modernisation.
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism
Russian state terrorism and state sponsorship of terrorism
Russia not only terrorises its own population into submission but also uses homegrown
terrorists for Vladimir Putin’s domestic ends. Russia deploys terrorist tactics while fighting against Ukraine, and seems increasingly willing and able to use those tactics as part of its foreign policy toolbox in its ‘political warfare’ against the broader West. For this reason, this brief argues that one could seriously consider labelling Russia a ‘state terrorist’ or a ‘state sponsor of terrorism’.
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism
The rise and fall of the Male State movement
This analysis discusses the Russian far-right movement the Male State, and its transition from being one of the most notorious misogynist movements in Russia to one of the main online supporters and promoters of the war in Ukraine.
Atlantic Council
A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics
Russia’s future will be characterised by a smaller population. President Putin’s war has virtually guaranteed that for generations to come. As the paper notes, Russia’s population will be not only smaller, but also older, more fragile, and less well-educated. It will almost certainly be ethnically less Russian and more diverse in terms of religion.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The article argues that the environmental and ecological impacts of a conflict are not always a primary concern. But the environmental consequences of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine have implications that affect millions of people worldwide since the war has an enormous impact on global food security.
03.07.2024
VOX Ukraine
Violence and socio-economic outcomes of Ukrainians in Poland and Ukraine
Almost one million Ukrainian refugees remain in Poland after more than 800 days of the full-scale Russian aggression. This article explores happiness, trust and self-declared health of Ukrainian refugees in Poland and Ukrainians who stayed in Ukraine. The authors find that refugees are less well off both in terms of their general wellbeing (happiness) and also economically compared to their Ukraine-based peers.
Bruegel
How to harvest the windfall profits from Russian assets in Europe
After months of bickering over whether and how to confiscate Russian sovereign assets, G7 members agreed in June to use future profits from frozen funds held by Euroclear in Belgium to prop up a loan for Ukraine of up to €50 billion. The author claims that this approach makes sense, as a full-blown confiscation policy would be plagued with legal pitfalls. Yet, the challenge still remains of crafting a syndicated loan backed by G7 members that strikes a fair deal on burden sharing.
EGMONT - Institut royal des relations internationales
The EU Ukraine liberty bond: using the whole of the €300 billion in Russian assets in the EU now
The EU has been debating how best to use the roughly €300 billion of Russian assets that are in EU jurisdictions to fund Ukraine-related expenditure. As the author notes, in the end, only the income and proceeds earned on the assets are used, including, most recently, as collateral for a $50 billion loan. Russia retains the ownership title to the assets themselves, in accordance with the basic tenets of our constitutional and legal principles.
Observer Research Foundation
Are western sanctions against Russia working?
The author argues that, unlike Iran or North Korea, the elements of national power, population size, resource basket, and wealth are in favour of Russia, which sustains its role as a global energy exporter. This means that the 45 countries that sanctioned Russia would have to globally isolate the latter first to make sanctions work.
Atlantic Council
Reconstructing Ukraine at war: the journey to prosperity starts now
The report focuses on how to rebuild Ukraine's economy after years of war. It provides a snapshot of the economic, societal, and energy-security situation on the ground, capturing key challenges and opportunities for supporting Ukraine’s survival and building a more prosperous future. It also explores how the country can meaningfully contribute to Europe’s economic growth and strategic autonomy at large.
Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors
Les citoyens européens et l’Ukraine deux ans après l’invasion russe
It has now been more than two years since Ukraine was invaded by Russia in February 2022. What is the current state of opinion in the countries of the EU? This document analyzes the situation as it presents itself in spring 2024 and its evolution since the first surveys carried out on this subject.
Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques
According to the article, the transition of the Russian-Ukrainian war into a confrontation of attrition puts forward new requirements for the development of the defence industry base of Ukraine and the EU, as well as for the most effective cooperation between the Ukrainian and European defence industries. The real situation on the frontline creates new impulses and paradigms for meeting the needs of the armed forces of Ukraine, with an emphasis on high-tech weapons and military equipment that provide an "asymmetric" advantage over the enemy.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Phasing out Russian gas in Europe
More than two years after the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the decoupling from the Russian energy dependence remains elusive. Russia can still legally sell natural gas around the world. This policy brief provides a comprehensive overview of Russia’s continued presence on the European gas market and proposes a complete phaseout of Russian gas from 2025.
Fondation Robert-Schuman
L'agriculture de l'Europe et l'agriculture d'Ukraine sont complémentaires
This note outlines the issues and solutions to be analyzed together for action and therefore to set a new and determined course for a Common Agricultural Policy. Of all economic and social activities in Ukraine, agriculture has long been the richest, most diversified and most innovative. Since Russia's aggression launched in 2014 against Ukraine with the annexation of Crimea, it has also become the most essential for the country and the one which raises the most questions in its relations with the EU.
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Turning point or dead end? Challenging the Kremlin’s narrative of stability in wartime
According to the publication, the Russian government expects 2024 to be a turning point in the country’s war against Ukraine. The Kremlin is using means of reflexive control, i.e. it projects an image of a country that has weathered Western sanctions, ramped up its performance, and has a united society behind its leader and his goals. This strategy was confirmed by personnel changes executed after Vladimir Putin’s inauguration for a fifth presidential term.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Late-stage Putinism: the war in Ukraine and Russia’s shifting ideology
The author argues that the Kremlin, partly as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, is building a more unified ideology that it is disseminating among the population and that it is having an increasing impact on foreign policy. He suggests possible actions by the West to counterbalance this ideology and limit its impact.
RAND Europe
A bridge for Ukraine into NATO
This commentary points out that the Biden administration sometimes refers to the need to build a “bridge” to NATO membership for Ukraine. It also emphasises that if NATO is serious about bringing Ukraine in as a member, then it must be clear-eyed about the risks. It must develop a concrete plan in support of a broader strategy, and most importantly, it must commit itself to success.
26.06.2024
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies/ Clingendael Institute
Freedom isn’t free: a cost-benefit analysis of support for Ukraine
This policy memo analyses the impact of European and American decisions regarding support for Ukraine and outlines three possible outcomes. It is important for European countries to realize that despite the recently passed aid package of sixty billion dollars, future US military support for Ukraine cannot be taken for granted.
Carnegie Europe
Judy asks: are Europeans prepared to send troops to Ukraine?
Several experts comment on the question of whether Europeans are prepared to send troops to Ukraine. Deploying troops to Ukraine, even for non-combat duties, entails risks most European countries are currently unwilling to take. The advice is that the priority right now should be ramping up aid to Kyiv.
Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Victory in Ukraine starts with addressing five strategic problems
The most recent U.S. national security supplemental package to Ukraine, passed in April 2024, mandates the administration under President Joe Biden to produce a strategy for continued U.S. support of Ukraine against Russian aggression. The strategy must “help Ukraine end the conflict as a democratic, independent, and sovereign country capable of deterring and defending its territory.” This white paper is intended to support the development of such a strategy by defining five key strategic problems:
(1) integrating Ukraine into the European economic and transatlantic security order,
(2) degrading Russia’s continued ability to bypass sanctions and access capital,
(3) combating the resilience of Russian disinformation campaigns, (4) rethinking the arsenal of democracy, and
(5) sustaining and strengthening Ukraine’s economy and democracy.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Arms supplies to Ukraine: does the European arms export control system need revision?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put arms control and arms export controls at the heart of the political discussion. Since February 2022, European Union member states have changed their approach to the support provided to Ukraine. From an initially cautious stance, they have moved towards the transfer of both light and heavy weapons and equipment through bilateral agreements or within the framework of the European Peace Facility. This paper analyses these trends and examines the performance of the current regime on arms exports, particularly in the case of jointly produced armaments and competing national approaches.
International Crisis Group
This report seeks to draw the key lessons from the setbacks that Ukraine and its partners faced in 2023, suggesting how these can be applied to hold the line now in Russia’s advance so as to make meaningful diplomacy possible. It is based on dozens of interviews with Ukrainian, Russian, European and U.S. officials, civil society figures, aid agency employees and defence experts over the past year, as well as government documents, news articles and research by the Crisis Group.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: war and society
The author writes that the consequent changes in trust in the political and military leadership have significantly complicated cooperation between those in Ukrainian society who are included in the war’s infrastructure and those who mainly focus on their own lives. He concludes that overcoming cleavages in society is essential in building the resilience necessary to resist an aggressor and that the consolidation of power as a response to the challenge of external aggression is to be expected, but it is not the optimal management solution.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
This paper takes as its starting point the historical, cultural, geographical, ethnic, and religious similarities between the former Yugoslavia and today's Ukraine. It also examines the ways in which the Yugoslav conflict was resolved and the attempts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. It is intended that some ideas for resolving the Ukrainian conflict may emerge from such analysis.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
NATO to consider increasing, stabilising support for Ukraine
Ahead of the July NATO summit in Washington, the paper examines NATO’s role in coordinating support for Ukraine. New instruments such as a dedicated NATO fund and the Alliance’s “mission” for Ukraine could facilitate the provision of assistance in the coming years.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Budanov’s sanctions. The consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries
The article examines the scale of destruction caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on refinery facilities inside Russia. While the attacks have no impact on oil prices globally, their continuation could destabilize the Russian domestic market.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The article examines the productivity of the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) on June 11–12. Discussions at a pre-URC conference suggest that a recent and sudden high-level personnel move in Kyiv risks becoming a distraction and a source of uncertainty that will dominate the URC. The Ukrainian government should save the top annual international conference dedicated to Ukraine from this misfortune by immediately appointing a permanent minister of restoration and by publicly committing to transparency both at home and with international donors.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Make the URC a Ukraine Resilience Conference
This article explains how Russia has adapted its strategy for the war in Ukraine. Airstrikes against power generation facilities aim to make Ukrainian cities unlivable. Russia is currently laying waste to Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, by launching attacks from an effectively US-granted safe harbor on the Russian side of the border. And disinformation in the West has become the Russian strategy that matters most to the outcome of the war.
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
Russia’s presidential election: signaling repression and demobilizing opposition
Although a notable proportion of the Russian population regards the election and Putin’s leadership as legitimate, their support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine is waning. Only a slim majority backs the continuation of the conflict. According to the author, the post-election period is likely to see the persistence of Russia’s current domestic and foreign policies, with the potential for increased societal and economic tensions.
European Policy Centre
No more excuses: debunking arguments against seizing Russian state assets for Ukraine
This paper analyses the arguments around seizing Russian state assets for Ukraine. Indeed, the authors highlight that the immediate rebuilding of critical infrastructure is crucial to keeping Ukraine’s economy running and for its defence, as the country will not be able to rebuild if it no longer exists. Moreover, failure to seize the reserves could encourage further crimes of aggression and undermine the geopolitical order.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
The report written by 11 leading international lawyers sets out the legal case for seizing Russian central-bank assets and transferring them to Ukraine under the established doctrine of state countermeasure, which permits states lawfully to carry out actions against a state that has violated fundamental rules of international law.
Brookings Institution
Why do the US and its allies want to seize Russian reserves to aid Ukraine?
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves held by the U.S. and its allies were frozen. Since then, some officials and commentators have suggested seizing those assets, which amount to nearly $300 billion, and using the proceeds to defend and rebuild Ukraine. This policy is not without risk or controversy. Seizing foreign exchange reserves has little economic or legal precedent and uncertain long-run effects. This article explains the efforts to seize Russia’s reserves and the possible consequences for the global financial system.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
In February 2022, Western governments immobilized an estimated US$300 billion of Russian central-bank assets in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The United Nations, G7, European Union and other bodies have since called for Russia to compensate Ukraine and other parties for injury caused by its invasion. This paper considers that any criticism against seizing Russian assets should be substantiated as merely stating that such measures are against international law is not sufficient. States, their legal advisers and legal scholars must take part in the legal analysis, for policymakers to receive the best advice.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russia has the resources for a long war in Ukraine
The article looks at the state of the Russian economy in the context of the country’s ability to sustain the war in Ukraine. It presents Russian economic goals, remaining resources and state spending against the background of wartime challenges.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The power of partnership: international supporters of Ukraine’s local reconstruction
With destruction occurring on a daily basis, the paper points out that repairing, rebuilding, and smaller-scale reconstruction within communities and regions is of paramount importance to the local population and the country as a whole. Given the extent of the destruction caused by the full-scale war, the national budget channels most of its funds - including, since 2024, a portion of local revenues - to military needs. Against this backdrop, war-ravaged municipalities and communities receive much-needed financial support from international partners: financial institutions, governments, foundations, regional entities, and “twin” cities.
Vox Ukraine
Ukraine’s plans for institutional reforms
Ukraine’s support by international organizations is usually structured as “money in exchange for reforms”. This article looks at which reforms has Ukraine promised to implement in the coming years with a view to making the Ukrainian economy more competitive and resilient, and gradually aligning Ukraine’s legislation with the EU laws.
Atlantic Council
Reconstructing Ukraine at war: the journey to prosperity starts now
This report provides a snapshot of the economic, societal, and energy-security situation on the ground, capturing key challenges and opportunities for supporting Ukraine’s survival and building a more prosperous future. It also explores how the country can meaningfully contribute to Europe’s economic growth and strategic autonomy at large through innovation, energy security, decarbonization, and diversified supply chains. While the situation is changing daily, these key takeaways will remain pertinent to reconstruction discussions for the foreseeable future.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
How targeted measures are changing the global economy: three scenarios for the future
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has prompted Western nations and their allies to impose extensive sanctions. This is yet a further example of how economic interdependence has been utilised as a weapon to address security challenges. This frequent, and often aggressive, utilisation of sanctions can decisively affect the functioning of globalisation. The article discusses the three most likely scenarios.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Navigating market exits: companies’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This policy brief shows what kind of companies decided to leave the Russian market. It also focuses on prominent Swedish businesses which announced a withdrawal from Russia, but whose products were later found available in the country by investigative journalists.
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (German Institute for Economic Research)
Sanctions against Russian gas would not endanger EU or German gas supply
As a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine, natural gas prices skyrocketed in 2022 and Germany in particular felt the impact of its strong dependency on Russia. Prices have since relaxed, the European natural gas industry has overcome the uncertainty due to the energy crisis in 2022, and the industry also survived the slump in Russian natural gas imports without supply interruptions. This report concludes that increased efforts to save energy and a timely phase-out of natural gas would reduce dependency on gas imports. Consequently, both the German and European natural gas supplies would be secure in the long term without Russian imports.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
Lessons of war: Ukraine’s energy infrastructure damage, resilience and future opportunities
Since 2022, the military actions in Ukraine have caused losses to the country’s energy infrastructure running into millions; its restoration requires more than USD 47 billion. This paper advises other countries to rely on Ukraine's lessons in safeguarding their infrastructure - ensuring adequate reserves of critical repair components, passive defense measures for equipment in case of war, proper training of specialists, and potentially further expanding the electricity grid to ensure its reliability in case of losing some infrastructure.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (Friedrich Ebert Foundation)
Industrial policy for Ukraine's survival: reversing 30 years of deindustrialization
This paper considers that the Ukrainian state must play an active role in addressing war-induced market failures and the cumulative impact of 30 years of deindustrialization. It points to possible measures by the Western partners and by Ukraine, including the suggestion that Ukraine and the European Union should co-invest in decarbonization of metallurgy and other key industries to ensure that Ukrainian manufacturing is not marginalized by the European Green Deal.
Institut français des relations internationales
Gouvernance mondiale, Ukraine, Union européenne : Quo vadis ?
This paper refers to the shattering of Western illusions of happy globalisation and fragmentation of the international system. According to the author, this fragmentation makes it problematic to develop global governance, which should, above all, be concerned with security challenges. The war in Ukraine threatens to send the European Union into a dangerous tailspin, symbolised by the temptation of further enlargements.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives
Accession negotiations: political impact on EU assistance to Ukraine
This report speaks about Ukraine-EU relations which have entered a new phase after the strategic decision to open negotiations with Ukraine, made at the EU leaders summit in December 2023. Though having some political steps to be completed before the practical phase of accession talks, this new phase is characterized by the crucial shift in the EU’s approach towards its relations with Ukraine. Aid packages for Ukraine as well as plans for reconstruction are now supposed to be adjusted to considering Ukraine as a future EU member state.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
The EU should issue common European defence bonds for Ukraine now
The author argues that the EU countries should urgently approve the common defense spending, given the uncertainty of sustaining aid from the US and the need to secure a militarily victorious Ukraine. The European defense bonds should be issued without delay and fund direct military support for Ukraine.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
The Russian war of aggression has led to a deeper relationship between the EU and Ukraine. This is clear from Ukraine receiving status as EU candidate and implementing reforms in many areas. However, the strong power concentration of the presidency poses an obstacle to the separation of power and hinders effective reform of the legal sector. The author proposes that one of the main elements of reconstruction in Ukraine will be to ensure the meaningful involvement of local actors. Municipal structures should be strengthened, for example by continuing the decentralisation process, which has been very successful to date but has not yet been completed.
Centre for Eastern Studies
On the warpath: the development and modernization of the Baltic states’ armed forces
The commentary examines the impact of the Russian full-scale invasion on the defence policies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It describes the increase of their military spending, the development and technical modernization of the armed forces as well as the presence of allied forces on their territories.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Germany and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine: the third year
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 came as a real shock to German elites and society alike. Although Russia has been behaving aggressively toward its neighbours since the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea—part of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory—in 2014, it was only with this most recent military attack that the German leadership came to understand Russia’s behaviour as a threat to German and European security.
Slovenská spoločnosť pre zahraničnú politiku (Slovak Foreign Policy Association)
Slovak-Ukrainian Information Center
The aim of this analytical output is to prepare a plan for the establishment of the Slovak-Ukrainian Cross-Border Center (SKUAC), which will offer public benefit services to regional and local public territorial administration authorities, business entities, and non-governmental organizations in the Slovak-Ukrainian border area in the fields of education, research, and professional project support in the area of territorial development and cross-border cooperation.
Carnegie Europe
As the brief argues, Putin’s war on Ukraine marks the end of the near abroad—the idea that Russia enjoys a special status in much of the post-Soviet space. But while Russia’s neighbours are seeking greater independence, they are not necessarily turning West.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy) - Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
Kremlin pitstop: financing Putin's war
This analysis shows how Russia has exploited a complex web of economic influence globally to circumvent sanctions and maintain its position in international markets. Turkey has become one of the key enablers of this Kremlin playbook.
RAND Europe
In April 2024, Ukraine and its supporters around the world breathed a sigh of relief when U.S. President Joe Biden signed a long-awaited foreign aid bill that provides more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. For the Biden administration, though, accepting such risk will mean abandoning a pillar of its strategy for the past two years, choosing a single path, and accepting the potentially escalatory consequences that might follow. The author considers that it’s a tough choice, but not choosing, however, may be even riskier.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Inevitable fractures: the Ukraine war and the global system
The paper explores the divisions in the global system which have been highlighted by the war in Ukraine. The fractions, visible for example in the United Nations General Assembly, are an inevitable consequence of colliding ideas and interests in international politics, and Russian invasion has strikingly confirmed them.
15.05.2024
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: the evolution of grand strategy
The author observes that while Ukraine’s strategic objectives have remained the same throughout the war, the ways and means to achieve them have shifted. Surprise and ability to mass troops have become less relevant, but technology must be mobilised through society-wide efforts if Ukraine is to prevail. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s longer-term security requires the construction of a credible deterrence posture.
Friends of Europe
Ukraine gets the help it needs, but is it too little too late?
Commenting on the US package for Ukraine, the author notes that it does not mean that Kyiv will receive $61bn in new weapons deliveries. A total of $26bn will be used to restock Pentagon arsenals and to replace US weapons and ammunition previously transferred to Ukraine. A further $9bn is in the form of loans although future US administrations can waive reimbursement. Just under $14bn will be spent on immediate weapons deliveries. What is critical is that the Pentagon now moves fast to send the weapons that Ukraine most urgently needs, given the pressures that the Ukrainian army is under from Russian advances in the Donbas and from daily Russian missile and drone strikes against cities like Kharkiv and Ukraine’s power stations and energy grid.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Evolución legal de la figura del mercenario en el conflicto de Ucrania, ¿respeto o soslayo al DIH?
According to the author, employing mercenaries is crucial in many conflicts, but winning the information war (cognitive domain) requires legitimacy in order to uphold the principles of international humanitarian law. To that end, the parties to the dispute modify their legal framework to fit the various circumstances.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Más allá de las armas: la estrategia rusa en Ucrania
This article provides a detailed analysis of the Russian strategy, examining Russian foreign policy since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It explores the various tools and tactics employed by Russia in Ukraine, including military, economic, diplomatic, and popular support, as well as the threat of nuclear coercion. Finally, it assesses the effectiveness of the Russian strategy and its implications for the future of Ukraine and the West.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Demographics: Ukraine's major Achilles heel
Before the war, because of its low birth rate and high emigration, Ukraine was the country with the worst ageing prospects in the world. The armed conflict, which has degenerated into a war of attrition, has further worsened its demographic future. According to the author, even if Ukraine wins the war, it could lose the peace. In the event of defeat, not only will the sacrifice have been futile, but it could mean the ultimate ruin of the nation.
Atlantic Council
Bombs and disinformation: Russia’s campaign to depopulate Kharkiv
Russia failed to take Kharkiv in the early weeks of the invasion more than two years ago. As the city braces for the possibility of a new Russian offensive in the coming summer months, local residents are equally determined to defy the Kremlin once again. In order to do so, the author explains that they must withstand unprecedented aerial bombardment, while also guarding against the demoralizing impact of relentless Russian disinformation.
Council on Foreign Relations
What happened to ‘stalemate’ in Ukraine?
While the word stalemate provided a handy summary of the war as Ukraine’s counteroffensive petered out in the second half of 2023 - with both sides unable to make more than small gains - the term has now become obsolete. This brief argues that, in 2024, the most important questions the two sides face are about a possible break in the stalemate. Russia and Ukraine could soon be looking at a transformed conflict - one in which both have real reasons for hope as well as fear.
Council on Foreign Relations
Weapons of war: the race between Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine and its Western backers are still struggling, in the third year of the war, to keep up with Russia’s advantages in troop and weapon numbers. The author argues that Ukraine would have a much better chance to prevail if the US and its European allies did more to ramp up defence production to keep pace with Russia’s wartime output - and if they donated more of their defence equipment to Ukraine, including the long-range strike weapons that Ukraine needs to target Russian bases in Russia-occupied Crimea.
Centre for European Reform
Does it matter if Ukraine loses?
This policy brief looks at Ukraine’s military and political situation and how to define defeat. It analyses the catastrophic consequences for the West and especially for Europe if Russia were to achieve a decisive victory. It assesses the real balance of power between Russia and the West as well as the balance of risk between action and inaction, while outlining the steps necessary to ensure that Ukraine both survives in the short term and drives Russia out of all occupied territory in the long term.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
Russian economy: still standing, but stuck
This report analyses the nuanced effects of Western sanctions against Russia two years since the beginning of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and, in contrast to the widespread international optimistic assessment of “Russia’s economic resilience” to sanctions, paint a very different picture: behind the facade of a handful of positive macroeconomic indicators like strong GDP growth and low unemployment, Russia’s actual economic reality is much bleaker, and the situation is getting worse.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
A smart specialization strategy for Ukraine
The author argues that Ukraine needs to improve its international competitiveness. Although the Ukrainian government has made tremendous strides in improving the rule of law, protecting intellectual property rights, strengthening of legal frameworks, etc. there remains much work to be done.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Resilience, reconstruction, recovery: the path ahead for Ukraine
Seen from a multi-domain perspective the brief focuses on four tasks of reconstruction and recovery: maximizing wartime resilience in the face of continued Russian aggression; investing in the economy and infrastructure of Ukraine’s future, rather than its past; preparing Ukraine for rapid and mutually beneficial integration into the EU; and hardening Ukraine’s state, economy, and infrastructure, and deterring future Russian attacks.
Centre for Economic Policy Research
Ukraine’s reconstruction: policy options for building an effective financial architecture
This report addresses a major precondition for the country’s reconstruction and development, i.e. a healthy and widely trusted financial system. It starts from the status quo of Ukraine’s banking and capital market and suggests policy options for improving effectiveness and increasing international trust in the system.
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Made in Ukraine: how the EU can support Ukrainian defence production
The publication notes that Ukraine urgently needs investment in local production capacities and repair and maintenance facilities. The EU and Ukraine have a shared strategic interest in supporting the reform and development of Ukraine’s rapidly expanding defence industry.
Vox Ukraine
Gender inequality in the “black mirror”: how to overcome violence in the digital dimension?
The paper addresses the digital dimension of violence, reviews the latest data globally and in the EU, and how this problem is being addressed in Europe and more specifically in Ukraine. However, it seems impossible to conduct an objective and comprehensive analysis of the problem of violence (including gender-based violence) in the digital dimension in Ukraine. So, the paper makes some on what Ukraine needs to do.
Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (Polish Institute of International Affairs)
Regional cooperation in Central Europe after Russia's aggression against Ukraine
This report explores the attempts to redefine regional political cooperation in many Central European states. While signaling the prospects for common actions, the report also aims to contribute to the debate on the directions of the future development of this cooperation.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Russian ongoing military aggression against Ukraine and EU security policy in 2024
The EU’s European Peace Facility (EPF) has incentivized its member states to give military equipment to Ukraine by reimbursing them for some of the costs. However, there is now little left to give as most of the old equipment has been divested. As such, European military support to Kyiv is lagging. The problem, as the brief argues, is that there is a tension between rebuilding European militaries and supporting Ukraine. A new paradigm is urgently needed for Europe’s military support for Ukraine.
Carnegie Europe
The war in Ukraine will either forge or splinter Europe
According to the brief, political shifts in Europe and the US risk deepening divisions within the EU. Leaders should make clear that investing in Ukraine’s defence is essential for securing Europe’s shared future.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Freedom isn’t free | Een kosten-baten analyse van de steun aan Oekraïne
This note contributes to the debate on Dutch support. It explains the impact of European and American support to three outcomes of the war in Ukraine: a Ukrainian victory in the long term, a protracted conflict or a Russian victory.
Institut Montaigne
Guerre en Ukraine : le prix de la liberté, un enjeu franco-allemand
The paper argues that the war in Ukraine divides the French and German partners who, in their support for Kyiv, are developing distinct strategies. However, only a community and even pan-European plan, supported by Paris and Berlin, would be able to provide the financial and material means without which Europe will fail to pay the "price of freedom". It further asks how France and Germany can make the European Council meeting in June a crucial moment to respond to the challenges of the war.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
The U.S. industrial defense strategy after Ukraine
This note delves into the measures adopted or put forward by the Pentagon to strengthen the national defense industry in the context of the war in Ukraine. It aims at providing an overview of some of the major trends and dynamics in the US defense industrial policy since February 2022.
Council on Foreign Relations
How much U.S. aid is going to Ukraine?
Since the war began, the U.S. Congress has voted through five bills that have provided Ukraine with ongoing aid, doing so most recently in April 2024. The total budget authority under these bills — the “headline” figure often cited by news media — is $175 billion. The authors present nine charts that illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.
Institut français des relations internationales
The future of nuclear proliferation after the war in Ukraine
This paper argues that the risk of proliferation in the coming decade is real but less acute and more manageable than many analysts have suggested. To limit the risk, the great powers and the international community need to step in to manage proliferation triggers by maintaining a focus on non-proliferation in their statecraft.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Defence diplomacy: Ukraine and the Global South
Based on previous experience, strategic communications – including defence diplomacy – are usually built on the principle of the “Five Ms”: messages, messengers, media, mediums and mechanisms. The messages should be tailored carefully to the audience, addressing political narratives, shared historical experiences, socio-psychological aspects, instrumental issues and cultural affairs. For that reason, the paper suggests that Ukraine should come out strong in the messaging and the other pillars of this strategy when trying to cooperate with the “Global South” and procure military support.
Atlantic Council
Grassroots diplomacy can help unlock international support for Ukraine
The author argues that, amid growing uncertainty over the future of international aid for Ukraine, diplomatic initiatives at the local and regional levels can play a critical role in securing continued public support around the world for Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression. These grassroots efforts, also known as subnational diplomacy, can go far beyond merely symbolic support, and have the potential to strengthen economic, cultural, and political ties between Ukraine and the country’s international partners.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
The rise of a new generation of Russian oligarchs as an unexpected consequence of the ongoing war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has caused an unprecedented change in Russia’s relations with the West. In reaction to Russian aggression, the US, the EU, and other Western countries have adopted rapid and massive sanctions against Russia with the aim to change its course of action and to reestablish international Law. However, not only is the Russian economy proving strongly resilient to sanctions, but because of these sanctioning measures, a new class of Russian businessmen and managers, who owe their fortune to the circumstances created by the war, has begun to emerge, as this analysis demonstrates.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Guerre russo-ukrainienne : la région de la Mer Noire au cœur de la reconfiguration des flux énergétiques
This study seeks to trace the complexity and tangle of energy flows that have been reconfigured since the start of the war in Ukraine. The Black Sea region, which is located at the heart of the physical interdependencies of the European-Russian networks, is experiencing a shift in the epicentre of transit from the territories located to the north of the Black Sea towards Turkey, in the south, notably via the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The economic war, with the packages of sanctions put in place on both sides, in which Russia and the EU are engaged has in fact generated a reconfiguration of energy flows but has not, however, succeeded in lastingly weakening the Russian economy, nor its military position in the war in Ukraine.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
La aceptación China de la guerra en Ucrania y el objetivo de un nuevo orden mundial
In the author’s opinion, China's behaviour in relation to the war in Ukraine may not be meeting the expectations of some political leaders and analysts. However, it seems consistent with the overall external projection of Xi Jinping's China. The commentary explains why.
Fundación Alternativas
Desinformación y censura en conflictos internacionales. Los casos de Ucrania y Gaza
The aim of this document is threefold: firstly, to take critical stock of the legislative responses to disinformation at the European level; secondly, to review the most relevant aspects of the two conflicts – Ukraine and Gaza; thirdly, to reflect and put forward proposals for better combating disinformation, propaganda, and censorship as far as possible.
19.04.2024
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Ukraine strategic futures
The policy paper examines three strategic futures for Ukraine and the European security:
NATO membership, which is by far the most reliable and least risky outcome for both Ukraine and the West, and alternative options – the “fortress Ukraine” and “Ukraine with assurances”.
Council on Foreign Relations
What it takes to fly the F-16: challenges for Ukraine
Ukraine is set to receive US -made F-16 fighter aircraft within months, an upgrade that Kyiv and its Western allies hope will help level the playing field with Russia’s formidable air force. But, as this brief explains, the F-16s will only have a meaningful impact on the war in Ukraine if Kyiv and its partners can build and maintain the extensive support and logistics infrastructure necessary to keep these world-class warplanes in the air.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Guerre en Ukraine: questions de crédibilité
No clearing in sight on the Ukrainian front. The article speaks of a relative status quo after the Russian failure to reach Kiev and the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to reconquer the Donbass, to which are added concerns about Washington's long-term commitment, the absence of an alternative to Vladimir Putin to hope for in Moscow, and Europeans who nevertheless remain fairly united among themselves and in solidarity with Kyiv.
Friends of Europe
Revenge, implosion or reform - three scenarios for Russia after a defeat in Ukraine
The consolidation of power within the Kremlin, with or without Vladimir Putin, albeit undesirable, is the most likely scenario for Russia after a defeat in Ukraine. This is the conclusion of a recent report by Friends of Europe outlining three scenarios of what will happen to Russia after Ukraine’s victory.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
The unchanging core: Russian military culture examined through the Ukrainian war
The time has arrived to delve into the depths of Russia’s reform and modernization endeavours. This unfolding narrative aims to unveil the essence of ‘Ivan’s war’ on Ukrainian soil. This inquiry poses compelling questions: can we truly decipher the unique contours of their military culture and, consequently, discern a distinct Russian way of war?
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Russia’s nuclear-capable missiles: a question of escalation control
Aspects of Moscow’s military strategy in Ukraine, including its deployment of dual-use missile systems, have offered some potential insights into its nuclear-weapons doctrine. According to the author, the examination of Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal – provides potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine, while also raising questions about Moscow’s ability to control escalation.
Observer Research Foundation
Ukraine's task for the year 2024: to maintain support and break the course of the war
The paper argues that Ukraine must convince its allies to continue military, financial and other support regardless of a change in power in their governments. Ukraine ended the second year of the war, facing a number of challenges that make the future unclear. Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive and the uncertainty around Western support for Kyiv has given President Vladimir Putin a confidence boost.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
La prevalencia de la guerra defensiva, su estancamiento y su carácter limitado
As the author of this paper claims, the war in Ukraine has brought into play the development of new military technology. However, the Ukrainian battlefield looks more like a picture of World War I, with soldiers on foot sheltering in muddy trenches from intense shelling from classic artillery. The questions now are whether we are once again facing a prevalence of the defensive over the offensive; and what factors of the operational environment can shape this new form and manner of fighting.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant taken as military target: legal and technical global challenges
The writer discusses how for the first time in history a nuclear power plant (NPP) has become a military objective in the front line of a war. While previous military operations at the Iraqi Osirak reactor (1981), the Iranian Bushehr NPP (1987) and the Slovenian Krško NPP (1991) were somewhat ad hoc, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant continues to be disputed as a military target in the frontline of the war in Ukraine, a new and unprecedented situation for which the international community was unprepared.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Dirty warfare? The application of international law to attacks on nuclear power plants in the conduct of hostilities
Alongside verbal threats of using tactical nuclear weapons, Russia’s invasion plans have included attacks on nuclear power plants (NPPs), such as the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia complex in Ukraine. These actions raise critical questions about the application of international law to military operations involving NPPs and liability for resulting nuclear damage. This paper examines the scope of international law in such scenarios and concludes with implications from the perspective of strategic studies and NATO nuclear policy.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Behind the lines: Ukraine warns Russia’s neighbours to prepare for resistance
The article elaborates on the Ukrainian people’s resistance to Russia, arguing that it was planned long before tanks crossed the border. It warns other Europeans to be ready to repel Moscow’s aggression.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Resilience, reconstruction, recovery: the path ahead for Ukraine
To the question "How can the world achieve sustainable Ukrainian resilience, reconstruction, and recovery in the face of conflict?", the report analyses four key pillars of recovery and reconstruction: economics and finance, Ukrainian reform, Western political will, and the postwar security architecture. Each of these pillars is vital to the stability of the edifice as a whole, and each must be addressed in parallel.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s War in Ukraine: mobilisation in wartime
In the first brief of the series, the author examines Ukraine’s need to mobilise, prepare and train half a million men to relieve those who have fought since the start of the full-scale war. This will not only challenge the military but will also have profound economic effects.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Putin’s henchmen: the Russian National Guard in the invasion of Ukraine
This paper aims to highlight the role that the National Guard has played in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the war’s impact on the service. Willing to be a key instrument to advance Putin’s priority objectives, most notably internal stability and the war against Ukraine, the National Guard has at least momentarily strengthened its standing within Russia. In this sense, the case of the National Guard is illustrative of the general dynamics characterising Russian security agencies, constantly engaged in a struggle for resources, influence, or even mere survival.
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
EU support for Ukraine: the paradox of insufficient assistance
Although the EU’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion has been more successful than expected considering its limited capabilities and some past failures of international security assistance, the West is failing to equip Ukraine to win the war. According to the author, despite the EU’s declaration to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, the current extent of military support is an indication that the Union is not in practice committed to Ukraine’s victory.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Return and reconstruction: how the EU should invest in Ukrainian refugees
While preparing for a longer war, Ukraine and its allies are already planning for reconstruction. Human capital will be the linchpin of this effort. The author argues that, already before the war, Ukraine was lacking people in its administration and crucial sectors, and that European countries should more strategically address the prospective return of Ukrainians who fled, by enhancing their potential to help reconstruction.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Can farmland market liberalization help Ukraine in its reconstruction and recovery?
The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine has inflicted massive damages and losses on Ukraine, already amounting to more than 2.5 times Ukraine’s 2023 GDP. Despite substantial and continuing international political and financial support to help Ukraine in its recovery and reconstruction, it is becoming increasingly clear that it will need to mobilize its own resources and private financing as well. This policy brief argues that farmland market liberalization is one of the key reforms in this respect.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Two years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, lessons learnt can strengthen EU sanctions policy
The article analyses the impact of the EU sanctions on Russia’s economy, the fight against their circumvention as well as Russia’s disinformation activities on sanctions. It offers recommendations how to further reduce Russia’s ability to finance the war in Ukraine.
European Policy Center
Cost of aggression: EU sanctions against Russia two years on
Russia’s escalation at the frontline, along with the death of Alexey Navalny, should compel the West to be more active in supporting Ukraine and further increasing pressure on the aggressor, including via sanctions policy. According to the brief, strengthening sanctions enforcement and preventing circumvention must remain the priority in 2024.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Why Russia has been so resilient to Western export controls
The article presents the reasons why Russia has proved exceptionally resilient to the technology export controls imposed by the West and was able to maintain its military capability despite these measures.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Sanctions on Russia: getting the facts right
The important strategic role that sanctions play in the efforts to constrain Russia’s geopolitical ambitions and end its brutal war on Ukraine is often questioned and diminished in the public debate. This policy brief shares insights on the complexities surrounding the use of sanctions against Russia, in light of its illegal aggression towards Ukraine. The aim is to facilitate a public discussion based on facts and reduce the risk that the debate falls prey to the information war.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
The impact and limits of sanctions on Russia's telecoms industry
This article covers the impact of telecommunications sanctions on Russia. The author argues that such sanctions are inefficient and, not only because the industry does not suffer enough from them to affect the Russian economy, but also due to side effects in the form of state propaganda gaining a stronger grip. The analysis concludes that the EU should focus less on weakening Russia’s civilian tech infrastructure and more on strengthening resistance to the Kremlin’s information hegemony on the Runet.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Energising Eastern Europe: how the EU can enhance energy sovereignty through cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova
The brief analyses the progress that the EU and its eastern neighbours have made towards strengthening each other’s energy sovereignty so far and sets out the next steps that they should take. It finds that, to date, the EU and its member states have played an important role in strengthening the energy sovereignty of its eastern neighbours by increasing their energy independence, but that Ukraine and Moldova still underperform when it comes to cleanness and efficiency.
Vox Ukraine
What may an ethical investor do with profits from fossil fuels due to the war on Ukraine?
The article argues that oil companies have clearly benefited from the rise in oil prices caused by Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Some of them recognized this and donated part of their profits to Ukrainians immediately in 2022. Investors in fossil fuel companies benefited as well, among them universities’ endowments.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ships, trains, and trucks: unlocking Ukraine’s vital trade potential
Due to constant and indiscriminate Russian missile attacks, Ukraine suffered massive destruction of its transport and logistics infrastructure, with air cargo totally suspended and port activity severely interrupted. This paper analyses how Ukraine has been adapting its trade routes and related infrastructure in wartime and provides recommendations to sustain trade and economic activity now and in the future.
Bruegel
Emerging countries have replaced most of Russia’s lost trade with advanced economies
Russian trade overall seems to have suffered little from sanctions; meanwhile, medicine and food trade continues with sanctioning countries. Russia’s trading relationships have changed hugely since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Most advanced countries now restrict exports to and imports from Russia, while several companies headquartered in advanced countries reduced their activities in, and trade with, Russia. However, many emerging countries, most notably China, have deepened their economic ties with Russia. The report elaborates on the question of the net impact of these diverging trends.
Atlantic Council
Putin is on an historic mission and will not stop until he is finally defeated
Ultimately, it is impossible to predict exactly what Putin will do if he wins in Ukraine. As the brief notes, he may initially choose to pursue low-hanging geopolitical fruit by seizing small neighbourhood countries like Moldova or Georgia. Alternatively, he might seek to press home his advantage against a weakened West by embarking on far bolder military gambits targeting the Baltic states or the Suwałki Gap. Of the many possible post-Ukraine scenarios for Russia, the author argues that the least likely of all is the idea that an emboldened and victorious Putin would simply stop.
Council on Foreign Relations
Campaign roundup: Joe Biden makes the case for Ukraine aid
Supporters of US military aid for Ukraine have been urging President Joe Biden for weeks to make the case to the American public. The author analyses the State of the Union speech in which Biden pressed Congress to pass the much-delayed Ukrainian aid bill.
Brookings Institution
NATO cannot take Russia’s weakness in the Baltic theater for granted
The end of Sweden’s drawn-out accession to NATO signifies the completion of the Baltic region’s political transformation and strategic reconfiguration. Both processes were accelerated by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which has recently crossed the two-year mark, and in both transitions, Russia loses. The author argues that the question of the real military threat that Russia poses to its neighbours, and its potential timeline, deserves more scrutiny.
RAND Europe
Help Ukraine win—or risk kicking off a U.S. losing streak
More than two years into Russia's war in Ukraine, the once solid wall of U.S. public support for aid to Ukraine has become less vocal, the brief notes. Because of this decrease in discourse supporting Ukraine, a small number of loud detractors is seeking to sway public opinion by asserting that supporting Ukraine isn't in the United States' interest.
20.03.2024
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Russia's armed forces two years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Despite the losses suffered in Ukraine, Russia has consistently pursued plans to increase the capacity of its armed forces. The article examines the “Shoigu reform” of Russia’s military, the challenges for its defence industry as well as the ideological factors in the militarisation of the state.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
La guerra en Ucrania tras dos años: ¿cómo ayudar a Ucrania para que no la pierda?
The author is of the view that Russia seeks to weaken Ukraine by waging a war of attrition. However, Ukraine might win, provided it keeps receiving military support from Western allies and adopts a defensive stance against Russian aggression.
Institut Montaigne
Guerre en Ukraine, deux ans après
According to this article, at the Munich Security Conference in February Europeans felt more than ever the urgency to react, while the 60 billion dollars in American aid are blocked in Congress. The brief asks: what are the driving forces behind current Putinian rhetoric? How are military positions and the state of public opinion evolving? From awareness to gradually accepting risk, how should Europe adapt its strategy?
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
The author claims that when the full-scale Russian offensive began on 24 February 2022, few observers believed it possible that, two years later, one of the world’s largest armies would still be bogged down in Ukraine. The country has resisted but it must have more military and political support. Ukraine needs to advance towards EU and NATO membership, albeit progressively, as is being discussed in Brussels.
Centre for Eastern Studies (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich)
On the threshold of a third year of war: Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis
The article examines the problems faced by the Ukrainian army in terms of manpower shortage, the constraints of the mobilisation process, the high average age of its soldiers, etc. The new mobilisation law might be a necessary step to improve the situation.
Clingendael Institute
Steun aan Oekraïne: geen tijd om te verliezen
The article argues that 2024 will be a crucial year for Ukraine and for European security. Two years after the large-scale invasion and ten years after the annexation of Crimea, the end of this war is not in sight.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine
Based on the notion that the Russian leadership lacks a master plan for the war against Ukraine and is primarily reacting to developments on the battlefield and to Western action and inaction, this article considers that the West, and in particular the EU and NATO, needs to invest in supporting Ukraine and its own security in the long term. Only through negotiations with security guarantees can Ukraine achieve lasting peace, and only with these western investments can it be made clear to Putin’s regime that it cannot win the war.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Making attrition work: a viable theory of victory for Ukraine
According to this analysis, there are no conditions for another Ukrainian ground offensive in 2024. Therefore, to maximise its chances of victory, high levels of attrition should be privileged over mobility and direct attack. Western countries should help Ukraine ramp up industrial production of capabilities which provide the greatest advantages in an attritional war.
Brookings Institution
Does the West’s Ukraine policy need a reality check? A Brookings debate
Six Brookings scholars debate the questions that Ukraine and its supporters now face. Is Russia winning its war against Ukraine? Should the US and its allies push Ukraine to negotiate with Russia? How can the US and its allies best ensure security and stability in Ukraine and Europe? Should NATO take further steps toward Ukrainian membership at its 75th-anniversary summit in Washington in July? What concrete steps should the US and Europe take in 2024 to prevent a Ukrainian defeat? What would the consequences of a Russian victory be for the trans-Atlantic alliance?
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Rusia, Ucrania y el campo de batalla “transparente”
The brief deals with the profusion of intelligence assets on the Ukrainian battlefield which brings us closer to the situation of a "transparent" battlefield, in the sense that practically all the elements present in the theatre of operations can be detected and located in a very short time. This "transparent" condition of the battlefield has doctrinal and strategic consequences, which explain many of the dynamics that can be observed today on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Deter and divide: Russia's nuclear rhetoric and escalation risks in Ukraine
This analysis focuses on three critical questions: to what end(s) has Russia used nuclear threats and what impact have they had? Have Western efforts to prevent nuclear use been effective? Would Putin consider using nuclear weapons if Russia were losing in Ukraine?
United States Institute of Peace
In search of a formula for lasting peace in Ukraine
The article summarizes Ukraine’s and Western countries’ efforts to ensure a formula for a lasting peace. The key elements are investments in a security structure and institutions that will serve as a disincentive to further Russian aggression.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Ucrania, dos trágicos años sin luz al final del túnel
The article takes the view that Ukraine is dependent on what others decide about its future, which does not appear to be bright, considering Putin’s efforts to place Ukraine under his zone of influence and the increasing fatigue among Western countries in terms of delivering aid.
Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier (Danish Institute of International Studies)
Humanitarian principles are under fire in Ukraine
Based on insights from field research conducted in Ukraine including interviews with humanitarian staff, this brief outlines the ways in which neutrality and impartiality among humanitarian actors in Ukraine are challenged and in some cases compromised. Following this, the brief also looks at the implications for future humanitarian work in Ukraine and other conflict zones.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung (Heinrich Böll Foundation)
Ukraine: wie eine Gesellschaft sich neu erfindet
The article explains how the world admires Ukraine's resilience. In addition to its military strength, Ukraine's resilience is based on its high degree of social self-organization. What is its motivation; how has this experience changed Ukraine; how deeply rooted is this movement in Ukrainian history and the culture of self-organization and the pursuit of freedom, are some of the questions the brief tries to answer.
Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
Europe has a long way to go to replace US aid – large gap between commitments and allocations
The team of the Ukraine support tracker introduces a new measure to track foreign government aid to Ukraine – government “allocations”. The data show that total European aid has long overtaken US aid, but also that the gap between EU commitments and allocations remains very large. To fully replace US military assistance in 2024, Europe would have to double its current level and pace of arms assistance.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)/IFW Kiel/ IFO Institute/ Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Russia’s economy on the eve of the second anniversary of the war
Nearly two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, the report gives an overview of the current state of the Russian economy, with a focus on the fiscal situation, external balances, and the effects of Western sanctions on Russia’s trade with the EU and selected third countries.
Council on Foreign Relations
Two years of war in Ukraine: are sanctions against Russia making a difference?
The United States and its allies have imposed broad economic penalties on Russia over its war in Ukraine. As the conflict continues, this paper debates whether the sanctions are working.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (Friedrich Ebert Foundation)
Build back better for everyone
This policy brief evaluates the approach adopted by the Ukrainian government and international partners, which primarily emphasises reconstruction through economic liberalisation and which has been shaped without the meaningful inclusion of important stakeholders, first and foremost feminist civil society. It argues for an inclusive and transparent process to reconstruct Ukrainian society, with a specific focus on addressing the inequalities exacerbated by the war.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel - Institute for European Studies
Arming Ukraine: can Europe’s bilateral defence agreements make the difference?
At a time when assessments of the war’s trajectory are increasingly bleak, a number of questions arise about the promises and pitfalls of these newfound bilateral security agreements. Who is signing what, and why? What do these NATO and EU members seek to achieve, especially in terms of capability delivery and defence-industrial support? And perhaps most importantly, are they going to make a difference in Ukraine’s armament effort? This brief seeks to address these questions.
Institut Delors
La puissance européenne, serpent de mer ou phénix ?
This article asks if, faced with a large-scale and high-intensity conflict in its geographical area of direct interest, the EU has exercised hard power commensurate with its economic weight; if the war in Ukraine has led to the emergence of a European power, ready for a long-term balance of power, including military power; and if the sea serpent is a phoenix in the making.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Wars and elections: how European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
This paper takes stock of the current state of European public opinion on the war in Ukraine. It draws on the results of a poll ECFR commissioned in January 2024 in 12 European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). Given the mixed picture this analysis reveals, it then puts forward a strategy for how leaders can best make the case to continue European support for Kyiv.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
What’s at stake in the EU elections: Ukraine aid
The European Parliament elections in 2024 will shape the political direction of the EU over the next five years and, therefore, constitute a defining moment. The author examines the impact the elections will have on EU policy in relation to support for Ukraine.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Bilateral security agreements with Ukraine: present opportunities and challenges
Bilateral agreements signed recently by some NATO members (the UK, France and Germany) with Ukraine raise the pressure to maintain support for the country. The article presents short-term benefits of the agreements, arguing that they will serve as a point of reference for other countries, such as Poland.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
EU policy towards Ukraine: entering geopolitical competition over European order
Since 2004, competition between the EU and Russia over the European political, economic and security order intensified sporadically, with a focal point in Ukraine. The EU’s main mitigation tactic in response to this competition used to be denial, but in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this approach became untenable.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Ukraine as a mirror: should we pay an insurance premium?
According to the paper, Ukraine has become a mirror that reflects a number of images: the breakdown of Europe’s security and defence architecture; Russia’s revisionist and revanchist policies; the heroism of the Ukrainian people; Ukraine’s dependency on western and, in particular, US aid; the unity of the 27 EU member states in supporting its neighbour; and the differing perceptions of citizens in Europe and across the world of the nature of the threat the conflict represents.
New America Foundation
Targeting the Wagner group: how the U.S. can strengthen sanctions against Russia
An analysis of the sanctioning of Prigozhin’s corporate holdings, assets, and entities associated with the Wagner Group’s operations over the past decade offers lessons for how to sharpen the bite of diplomatic and financial tools and contain the destabilizing effects of Russia’s irregular forces. To shed light on how the US government has utilized sanctions to curtail the capabilities of Russian irregular groups and how these measures have evolved over time.
Atlantic Council
Undermining Ukraine: how Russia widened its global information war in 2023
The article discusses how in the lead-up to the February 2022 invasion, Russia employed disinformation in the form of narrative warfare to justify military action, mask its planning, and deny any responsibility for the war. It explores how Russia further entrenched these efforts throughout 2023, developing new messages and techniques while recommitting to ones that continue to prove effective.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
The unchanging core: Russian military culture examined through the Ukrainian war
The brief argues that time has arrived to delve into the depths of Russia’s reform and modernization endeavours. It aims to unveil the essence of ‘Ivan’s war’ on Ukrainian soil. This inquiry poses compelling questions: can we truly decipher the unique contours of their military culture and, consequently, discern a distinct Russian way of war?
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Trending? Social media attention on Russia’s war in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is one of the most important geopolitical events of the 21st century. For almost two years, international news outlets have been covering the war, often providing daily or even hourly updates. But what is the level of public interest and public engagement in countries around the world? When does the war capture an international audience’s attention and what are the events that supplant it? This brief addresses the above questions.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Russia-Ukraine war’s strategic implications
This study offers a holistic analysis of the conflict and its implications for the armed forces of European countries, as well as for NATO, EU defence, aerospace and defence industry in the Euro-Atlantic area.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The Russia-Ukraine war and implications for the European defence industry
Two years after the Russian attack on Ukraine, it is clear to the author that the European defence technological and industrial basis was ill-equipped to face the consequences of a large-scale, high-intensity conflict on the old continent. The war changed three decades of procurement policies, production and technological trends that had previously shaped (not only) Europe’s approach to defence hardware.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Six takeaways from two years of Russia-Ukraine war
This paper deals with six takeaways that can be gained for the armed forces of European countries, NATO and EU defence initiatives, with a view to deterring Moscow from further aggression and if necessary defending Europe from them.
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