Real Clear Polling
Two Weeks Left: Is Election Shifting in Trump’s
Direction?
For months after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic Party nominee, the presidential race has been a toss-up. The betting markets had the race as almost a pure 50-50, polls in the swing states were split with no clear favorite, and the last planned national event was in early October, meaning the dynamics of the race seemed unlikely to change in the final weeks before the election. However, over the last week, those perceptions have changed, as Donald Trump appears to have inched into a narrow lead.
Although Harris still lead slightly in the national head-to-head – and trails slightly in the key battleground states – the forum where Trumpentum is most apparent is the betting markets. From Aug. 1 until Oct. 12, neither Trump nor Harris took more than a 10-point lead in the markets, despite major events such as the Democratic National Convention, the presidential debate, the vice-presidential debate, and the second Trump assassination attempt. However, since Oct. 3, when Harris last led in the RCP Average of Betting Markets, Trump has surged, now leading by 19.2 points, 59 to 39.8.
Part of the reason for Trump’s lead in the betting markets is his gains in swing states. Of the 44 polls in swing states conducted exclusively in October, 28 had Trump in the lead, while only eight had Harris ahead (with the other eight tied).
This has translated into increasing leads in the swing states as well. In Pennsylvania, since early August, the race had been essentially even, or with one or the other showing small leads. Since the beginning of October, Trump hasn’t taken a monumental lead, but he is now ahead by 0.8 points in the largest swing state.
In the other two Rust Belt states, Harris had held a small but consistent lead since entering the race. In Michigan, however, Trump now leads by 1.2 points in the RCP Average, and in Wisconsin, the race is effectively tied, with Trump up by just 0.2 points.
In the Sunbelt states, Trump has maintained a slim lead since Harris entered the race. In Arizona, he currently leads by 1.6 points, similar to the 1 to 2-point lead he has held since August. In Nevada, Trump leads by 0.8 points in the RCP Average.
In North Carolina, Trump leads by only 0.5 points in the RCP Average, with the three latest polls showing him tied with or trailing Harris. In Georgia, Harris briefly held a small lead, but now Trump leads by 1.8 points.
In national polling, recent polls have also shifted the RCP Average in Trump’s direction. Of the last six national polls, four have had Trump ahead, while only two had Harris leading. From late August through early October, Harris led by around 2 points in the RCP Average, and now that lead has fallen to 0.9 points.
Despite Trump’s lead in every swing state and advantages in the betting odds, a Trump victory is hardly guaranteed. For one thing, his leads in these states are all within the polling margin of error; for another, the gamblers’ money identifies a favorite, but that preference is not determinative. In 2016, on the Monday before the election, Hillary Clinton led by 75 points, 88-13, in the betting odds. She lost, of course, bringing to mind the old racetrack adage that differences of opinion are “what makes horseraces.” But it’s the order at the finish line that determines the winner.
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