EURONEWS The EU's great fear: Donald Trump winning and cutting all aid to Ukraine The EU fears that if Donald Trump wins the US elections, he will cut all aid to Ukraine. Copyright Association Press / European Union. By Jorge Liboreiro & Gregoire Lory Published on 29/10/2024 - 7:32 GMT+1•Updated 7:55

 EURONEWS

The EU's great fear: Donald Trump winning and cutting all aid to Ukraine

The EU fears that if Donald Trump wins the US elections, he will cut all aid to Ukraine.

Copyright Association Press / European Union.

By Jorge Liboreiro & Gregoire Lory

Published on 29/10/2024 - 7:32 GMT+1•Updated 7:55

As the US presidential election nears closer, Brussels fears a Trump victory could leave Ukraine to fend for itself.

To say the European Union is anxiously awaiting the outcome of the United States presidential elections would be an understatement.

The poll on the other side of the Atlantic has the potential to upend many, if not all, of the bloc's policies, from trade flows and industrial subsidies to digital oversight and antitrust probes. But no other field triggers the same immediate fears as Russia's war in Ukraine, where any disruption, even if small, could prove a game-changer on the battlefield.

The profound unease stems from the words of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, who has made no secret of his displeasure with America's aid to the battered country.

Earlier this year, as the US Congress negotiated a foreign aid package that allocated $60 billion (€55.4 billion) in military supplies for Ukraine, Trump attempted to influence the procedure by pushing for the assistance to be structured as a loan, as opposed to a grant.

"We should never give money anymore without the hope of a payback, or without 'strings' attached. The United States of America should be 'stupid' no longer," he wrote on Truth Social, the platform he owns.

Later, at a rally in June, the billionaire described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as "maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived."

"Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion," Trump said, referring to the aid package.

"He gets home and he announces that he needs another $60 billion and I say: it never ends. It never ends," he added amid cheers from the crowd. "I will have that settled prior to taking the White House as president-elect."

Then, in July, Trump met with one of his closest allies in Europe, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, to discuss the conflict. "He will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war," Orbán said after the bilateral encounter. "Therefore, the war will end, because it is obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own feet."

Orbán doubled down on his remarks in a defiant letter addressed to his fellow EU leaders. In it, he warned that Trump's "likely" re-election would shift the financial dynamics between the US and EU regarding support for Ukraine.

It's this shift that makes Brussels fret.

Pulling the plug

From the early days of the invasion, Brussels has been in close contact with Washington to coordinate their response and fortify the Western front against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In President Joe Biden, the EU found a staunch, vocal advocate of the trans-Atlantic alliance who firmly agreed that Russia's full-scale invasion was a blatant breach of international law and Ukraine had the right to defend and recover its sovereign territory.

Although both sides have remained independent in their policy choices, their paths have converged along the same lines. On the one hand, support for Ukraine's army and economy, and, on the other, sanctions pressure to cripple Russia's war machine

The US, a world-class manufacturer of military gear, has primarily focused on providing Kyiv with the advanced weapons it needed to repel the invading Russian forces, supplying more than $64 billion (€59 billion) in military assistance since the start of the war, according to government figures. The donations have included long-range ATACMS missiles and the much-needed Patriot air defence systems.

The EU and member states have also supplied military aid, worth €43.5 billion, but suffered notable hiccups, such as a target to deliver one million artillery rounds by March 2024 that was roundly missed and a €6.6 billion envelope that is still blocked by Hungary.

The bloc has seen greater success in its injections of financial, economic and humanitarian support, with €57.8 billion already disbursed and more in the pipeline.

In parallel to these efforts, the Atlantic partners have acted as co-leaders in several groundbreaking initiatives at the G7 level, like a price cap on Russian crude oil and a $50 billion (€45 billion) loan for Kyiv that will use Russia's frozen assets as collateral.

This symmetry risks collapsing overnight if Trump wins, makes good on his threat and pulls the plug on American assistance.

"That would cause a great problem because Europe is not ready to take over. And it means that within three, four, six months, Ukraine could find itself without sufficient raw material to prosecute the war," Sven Biscop, a programme director at the Egmont Institute, said in an interview.

"I'm confident that whatever happens in the American elections, the European Union will stick by Ukraine. But the question is: what is the end of our strategy," Biscop asked.

"For the moment, we are just giving them a little bit today, a little bit tomorrow, just enough not to liberate the territory but to hold the line. And somehow, it seems we're hoping that eventually Putin will give up, but he won't give up. So we need a strategy."

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump held a meeting in late September.Julia Demaree Nikhinson/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved.

Few in Brussels believe the EU can step in and make up for Washington's sudden absence. With a stagnant economy, an inferior defence industry and a rise in far-right parties, the bloc lacks the means to shoulder the entire burden on its own.

This realisation came to the fore last year when the $60 billion package got stuck in the US Congress, and the EU began to seriously consider the scenario of an American withdrawal. "Can Europe fill the gap left by the US? Well, certainly Europe cannot replace the US," High Representative Josep Borrell admitted back then.

A similar apprehension is weighing heavily on EU officials and diplomats as the election date nears closer and opinion polls paint a deadlocked battle between Trump and his opponent Kamala Harris, who has promised to "stand strong" with Ukraine and continue the G7 efforts to tighten the screws on the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, Trump has been avoiding any long-term commitments and talked instead of striking a deal to swiftly end the war without providing any details on what the deal would entail. The Trump campaign did not reply to a request for comment.

"I think if we win, I think we're going to get it resolved very quickly," Trump said in late September after meeting with Zelenskyy. "But, you know, it takes two to tango.”

These words raise fears that if Trump fails to accomplish the deal, which he describes in a strictly transactional manner, he will become uninterested in the war and leave Ukraine to fend for itself – and Europe in a scramble to fill the void.

"A potential second Trump presidency could hamper the close transatlantic partnership that the Biden Administration has worked to foster together with the EU. It could create unnecessary friction in cooperation at times when we least need them, especially within NATO," David McAllister, the EPP MEP who chairs the European Parliament's committee on foreign affairs, said in a statement to Euronews.

"Nevertheless, we should find a way to keep ties as close as possible whatever the outcome of the elections in order to 'fireproof' the EU-US relationship."