CHATHAM HOUSE
Trust in US democracy is at stake in this election
A narrow win for either side could make things worse. The rest of the world should be prepared for a disruptive transition.
Expert comment
Published 23 October 2024
3 minute READ
Dr Leslie Vinjamuri
Director, US and the Americas Programme
With less than two weeks to election day in the United States, polls suggest the gap between Harris and Trump has narrowed even further in the swing states where the election will be decided. A fierce contest has ensued as each campaign seeks to drive voter turnout. In such a tight race, this will be decisive. But in an election that many Americans perceive as being existential for the country’s future, a narrow victory by either side will heighten the risk of a contested election.
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Many Americans are pessimistic about the ability of democracy to deliver a reliable result. Two thirds of Republican voters continue to believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and for many of these, Biden’s inauguration may have demonstrated the weakness, not the strength, of US democracy.
This environment has contributed to widespread anticipation of a contested election, as well as preparations for the possibility of a delayed result. Political disinformation and deep polarization across the country could mean that a narrow victory leads to more legal challenges and even political violence. 6 January, the anniversary of the assault on the US Capitol and the day Congress will certify the Electoral College has been designated a National Special Security Event.
The issue of how quickly and reliably votes are certified has become an arena for argument. In the 2022 midterms, 22 county officials in key states voted to delay certification. Democrats have noted with alarm that this year, around 70 pro-Trump election ‘conspiracists’ are positioned to review the results in swing states.
Those nervous about the possibility of a narrow vote being overturned will be watching to see if Republicans maintain or increase their majority in the House of Representatives, since the newly elected House will shape who holds the gavel when a joint session of Congress returns to certify the US presidential election result. Republican control of the House could give the former president more ability to influence this vote.
A resilient democracy
But there should be room for optimism. Democracy in America has been remarkably resilient. In 2016, Democrats swallowed their unease with Donald Trump. Despite rumours of Russian interference in the election, they accepted the election result.
If fears of another contested election materialise, it will be the third time in recent history that the US has struggled to confirm a result.
Four years later, the US was far more polarized, trust in institutions had decreased, and challenges to the elections reflected this. The Trump campaign filed more than 60 lawsuits in 9 states challenging election processes and voter certification. In every single case, courts confirmed the results. After the 6 January insurrection on the US Capitol, Congress returned to its chambers and, on the very same day, confirmed the electoral results.
If fears of another contested election materialise, it will be the third time in recent history that the US has struggled to confirm a result. In 2000, the Supreme Court intervened to decide on a recount in Florida, effectively delivering victory to George W Bush – a memory alongside the 6 January Capitol riots contributing to America’s anxiety ahead of polling day.
International response
The US’s partners and rivals may be ill-prepared for a contested election.
If Trump or Harris, or both, claim victory before it is clearly settled, world leaders will need to decide how to react. Diplomatic protocol may dictate that leaders wait until the US confirms the results through official channels but there are concerns that not everyone will play by these rules.
Image — Voters make selections at their voting booths inside an early voting site on 17 October 2024 in Hendersonville, North Carolina. (Photo by Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images).
Some in Europe, for example, fear that the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, may be inclined to accept a Trump victory before it is fully confirmed. Given Hungary currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, this could create confusion externally. It could also create conflict within the European Union and force a trade-off between a divided EU or a collective pre-emptive recognition of Trump as president.
A stalled decision could create the scope for political or even military opportunism by US adversaries at a dangerous and uncertain time in international affairs.
Leaders not just in Europe, but also in Latin America and Asia, may feel they face a difficult choice, since delaying recognition could set back relations with a president who prizes loyalty and punishes ambivalence.
A stalled decision could also create the scope for political or even military opportunism by US adversaries at a dangerous and uncertain time in international affairs. The credibility of the US commitment to dual deterrence against Iran and Israel, or China and Taiwan, is already in doubt. A stalled transition could further decrease the credibility of the American deterrent until the next president is firmly in place.
America’s ability to deliver a free and fair election matters for international peace and stability. It also matters symbolically, for trust in America’s leadership and for global prospects for democracy. Elections are the most visible sign of the health of democracy. This is America’s choice, but it is also America’s chance to show that even in a deeply divided society, its democracy can once again deliver – especially when the rest of the world is watching.
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