THE TIMES OF ISRAEL A clear message to Iran: Your nukes and oil are next - Oct 27, 2024, 1:37 PM

 THE TIMES OF ISRAEL

A clear message to Iran: Your nukes and oil are next

Ayatollah Khamenei now understands the depth of Israeli intelligence capabilities and Iran's own potential vulnerabilities

Screenshot of Tehran Times front page on October 14, 2024

Oct 27, 2024, 1:37 PM

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Israel’s recent strike on Iranian soil conveyed a clear message to the Iranian regime: Israel is fully capable of directly targeting any site within Iran, including nuclear, oil, and gas facilities. This action was taken in response to Iran’s earlier ballistic missile attack on Israel, aligning with the message Iran issued soon afterward. “Message is Clear: Iran says ready to respond to any aggression,” blared the headline in the Islamic Republic’s English mouthpiece The Tehran Times.

The full details of Israel’s recent attack in Iran, and the exact extent of the damage, remain unclear and may never be fully confirmed by either side. However, reports based on satellite imagery, analysis, and leaks from credible international sources indicate substantial damage to Iran’s defense and offensive capabilities.

The strike appears to have destroyed most, if not all, of Iran’s S-300 air defense systems and some of the advanced S-400 systems acquired from Russia. In a simultaneous assault on air defense systems in Syria and Iraq, Israel significantly reduced Iran’s ability to detect and intercept hostile aerial vehicles. As the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson stated, “Now, the State of Israel has wider air freedom of action in Iran as well.” This development marks a serious setback for Iran’s defensive posture.

Related: Netanyahu: Israel’s air attack on Iran ‘precise and powerful,’ achieved all goals

Additionally, Israel’s strike targeted Iran’s solid-fuel engine installations, which are essential for producing solid fuel for ballistic missiles such as the ones fired at Israel. This loss directly affects Iran’s capacity to quickly produce advanced missiles, representing a significant blow to its offensive capabilities.

Israel has released limited information regarding its attacks on 20 targets across Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan provinces, likely because the intended audience for this message is not the Iranian public but rather Iran’s leadership. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was likely briefed within hours on the scope and implications of the attack, regardless of how authorities and state media may attempt to downplay the extent of the damage. Khamenei now understands the depth of Israeli intelligence capabilities, the operational penetration that made the strike possible, and the potential vulnerability of nuclear, oil, and gas facilities. Israel has, in effect, cleared a path to these strategic assets by disabling key defensive and offensive capabilities in this operation.

Khamenei’s analysis of the situation should lead him to realize that if Israel refrained from targeting nuclear sites this time, possibly due to US objections, it may seize a future opportunity to do so – perhaps even with US involvement.

Before contemplating a response, Khamenei should consider Israel’s underlying message: “Message Is Clear: Your Nukes and Oil Are Next!”

About the AuthorDr. Avi Davidi is the editor of the Times of Israel Persian edition.