American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research The RUNDOWN - A weekly digest of news and analysis from AEI's Foreign and Defense Policy team.

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The Rundown

A weekly digest of news and analysis from AEI's Foreign and Defense Policy team.

Georgia’s ruling Russia-aligned Georgian Dream party declared victory in parliamentary elections widely perceived as a referendum between the EU and Russia. Georgia’s opposition contested the results, which were marred by reported electoral violations.

AEI’s Dalibor Rohac notes:

Georgia’s parliamentary elections were as saddening as they were predictable. For weeks, Georgian Dream advertised that they saw no alternative to staying in power following the rigged parliamentary election. The time for Western leaders to act was before the election, when it was still possible to remind Georgians that the choice facing them was binary and existential. Gluing back pieces of Georgia’s shattered democracy after this weekend will prove far more difficult.

Can Georgia’s opposition galvanize enough support to contest the results? Are Georgia’s EU aspirations permanently damaged? Follow us on X @AEIfdp to keep up with our latest work. Have a great week, AEI's Foreign and Defense Policy team

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Brian Carter @brian_cartr   It is true that Israel has not yet stopped the rocket fire into northern Israel. But successful military campaigns only succeed as a result of repeated blows to the enemy. Rarely do campaigns end rapidly or as a result of one decisive blow.   RETWEET

Middle East and Asia India and China reached an agreement to end their dispute over the border in the Himalayas. Biden’s Iran Diplomacy Is Killing Iranians Michael Rubin | Middle East Forum Throughout Iranian history, capital punishment has spiked during periods of reformist rule. Michael Rubin argues that conventional wisdom in Washington about Iranian politics rests on two false assumptions. First is that the difference between Iranian reformers and hardliners is one of policy rather than tactics. In reality, both hardliners and reformers pursue similar policies; the policies are simply marketed differently. Second is the false belief that the Iranian electorate matters. The policies Iranians object to most are hardwired into the Islamic Republic; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exists to prevent meaningful debate and protest. By coddling reformers, President Joe Biden not only may be giving space for Iran to achieve nuclear breakout, but he also may be condemning even greater numbers of Iranians to the gallows. Read more here. >> The India-Canada Breakdown Sadanand Dhume | Wall Street Journal Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, accusing them of working in a campaign of violent intimidation against dissident Sikhs in Canada. Sadanand Dhume explains that the diplomatic crisis stems from a violent movement to carve out a separate Sikh homeland called Khalistan from India. In loudly confronting the Khalistan movement, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has wrongly conflated a small minority of radicals with Canada’s overwhelmingly peaceful Sikh community. Nonetheless, the Indian government, which is in the midst of a partial rapprochement with China, cannot afford to alienate the West. If India is seen as seeking to undermine freedom of speech and rule of law in the West by targeting Sikh separatists, it risks being clubbed together with Western adversaries. Continue reading here. >> Israeli Retaliatory Strikes on Iran Nicholas Carl | Critical Threats Project Israel launched several waves of strikes on Iran in retaliation for Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack. Nicholas Carl explains that the strikes focused on Iranian drone and missile production facilities. Iran relies heavily on these weapons in its regional war on Israel and sends them to Russia, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Additionally, Israel targeted several Iranian sites hosting the Russian-made S-300 air defense system, the most advanced air defense system Iran has. The ease of Israel’s S-300 strikes appears to show the system’s continued vulnerability to sophisticated targeting. Learn more here. >>

US Foreign Policy and Defense The US approved a $2 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems battle-tested in Ukraine. The Pentagon Is a Terrible Customer to Its Industry Partners Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas The US Air Force’s low rate production purchases of its new T-7 trainer are causing industry headaches and rising costs. Mackenzie Eaglen argues that the Pentagon’s one-half production cut is the culprit. Purchasing capability at minimum sustainment rates—the amount of production necessary to keep production lines viable—guarantees cost and schedule growth. However, minimum sustainment rates are not universally agreed on or clear. Production rates that jump, only to fall year after year, prevent production lines from remaining open, profitable, and healthy. Consistent orders under contract are needed to keep production steady and affordable. The Pentagon must become a better customer to industry or accept responsibility for the inevitable cost growth that comes with constant purchasing changes. Continue reading here. >> America’s Broken Promises Matter Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner From Syria to Ukraine, American policymakers have broken many promises. Michael Rubin argues that the American-secured release of Paul Rusesabagina, the figure from Hotel Rwanda imprisoned on terrorism charges, threatens to break yet another promise. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan brokered Rusesabagina’s release on the condition that he apologize and cease interfering in Rwanda. However, Rusesabagina continued his violent rhetoric after his release. With Joe Biden soon traveling to Africa, the White House is seeking further Rwandan assistance and trust. Its failure to hold Rusesabagina culpable continues the trend of American leaders saying whatever is necessary to win short-term agreements, with little regard for the damage done to America’s broader reputation. Learn more here. >> Why the Kamala Harris Doctrine Must Be Defeated Colin Dueck | National Interest Supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris often claim she was a part of the Biden administration’s successes but absent for its failures. Colin Dueck explains that, if elected, Harris will face the most dangerous combination of international security challenges since the 1940s. The notion that Xi Jinping, America’s most formidable opponent, will be deterred or defeated by anything less than a serious change in course on the part of the US is absurd. America needs a more hard-nosed, pragmatic leader that can boost America’s deterrent posture overseas and rebuild the military. Another four years of the Barack Obama–Joe Biden–Kamala Harris approach will only continue toothless warnings, lectures on liberal norms, and politically correct gibberish, with no substantial strengthening of America’s military or economy. Read more here. >> Adding Slack to the US Nuclear Posture Kyle Balzer | AEIdeas America’s nuclear weapons are aging faster than they can be replaced. Kyle Balzer reasons that the US desperately needs more short-term capability to offset a bevy of geopolitical threats. To do so, the US has two “off-the-shelf” options. It could upload more warheads on either land- or sea-based legs of the nuclear triad to expand the force. It could also modify Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles with nonstrategic warheads to return a regional nuclear option to the sea-based fleet. The nuclear arsenal is the backbone of America’s global military posture, which has deterred great-power war since 1945. As former Secretary of Defense James Mattis once quipped, “America can afford survival.”. Learn more here. >>

Multimedia Spotlight

On this episode of What the Hell Is Going On?, Danielle Pletka and Marc Thiessen speak with author and founder of the Government Accountability Institute Peter Schweizer about the legacy of President Ronald Reagan’s “A Time for Choosing” speech. The speech launched Reagan’s political career by posing a set of choices to the American people. He asked them to choose between two distinct worldviews: one run by the people, which would lower taxes and shrink government while standing up to the enemies of American freedom, and one ruled by elites, which proposed a massive welfare state that let Communism spread globally. Sixty years since his speech, Reagan’s principles are just as relevant.

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