Real Clear Politics Tom Bevan: Trump Could Win "Narrow Landslide" in Electoral College With Really Small Margins in Swing States Posted By Tim Hains On Date October 23, 2024

 Real Clear Politics

Tom Bevan: Trump Could Win "Narrow Landslide" in Electoral College With Really Small Margins in Swing States

Posted By Tim Hains

On Date October 23, 2024

Tuesday on the RCP radio show, Carl Cannon, Tom Bevan, and Andrew Walworth discussed electoral college math, two weeks ahead of the 2024 election. You can play with the tool to build your own RCP electoral map here to game out different combinations of the swing states.

Tom Bevan put forward the concept of a "narrow landslide," where Donald Trump would win a large victory in the electoral college by pulling off narrow victories in the various swing states.

"Trump is currently leading in the RealClearPolitics averages in all of these swing states, but by very slim margins," he explained. "His biggest leads are in Georgia (Trump +2.5%) and Arizona (Trump +1.8%). But this idea of a 'Narrow Landslide' would be if he wins all of them, and ends up with 312 electoral votes, but it could happen by just a few thousand votes in some of these states."

"Even if Trump takes Georgia," he continued, "Kamala Harris still, if she wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, would win the Electoral College 270 to 268. That's how close it would be."

"The problem is she's also trailing in all three of those states right now," he said. "I think her best opportunity is in North Carolina (Trump +0.4%), where Trump is leading by half a percentage point, but she actually leads in two of the last three polls taken there."

"If she wins North Carolina, she could afford to lose one of the upper Midwestern states. Not all of them, but she could lose Wisconsin (Trump + 0.1%) or Michigan (Trump + 0.6%). She couldn't lose Pennsylvania (Trump + 0.8%), though."

"Right now, Trump's second-largest lead is in Arizona, but not in Nevada (Trump + 0.9%), that's a state Democrats have won the last two cycles. If they still have the edge with the Culinary Union, that might be an option for her. But it would be interesting to see her win the Electoral College by losing Pennsylvania, but winning North Carolina and Nevada."

Related Topics: Electoral College, , Trump Campaign, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia