“If they do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they're fair targets, and the Ukrainian military will defend themselves against North Korean soldiers the same way they are defending themselves against Russian soldiers,” Kirby told reporters.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin “may be even in more trouble than most people realize,” Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin told reporters Wednesday. Referring to the North Korean soldiers, Austin said, “If they're co-belligerents, if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia's behalf, that is a very, very serious issue, and it will have impacts not only in Europe. It will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.”
Mapped: See the path North Koreans are believed to be traveling to training sites inside Russia via this graphic published Wednesday by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Expert reax: “In addition to sending 8 million rounds of 122 millimeter (mm) and 152mm munitions and scores of ballistic missiles, North Korea is now providing the ultimate sign of an alliance commitment in the spirit of the renewed mutual defense treaty signed by the two leaders in June 20,” Victor Cha of CSIS wrote in an explainer Wednesday. “It’s unclear whether these are technicians or combat troops,” he cautioned. But “Either way, this makes DPRK the most visible and committed supporter of Russia’s aggression in Europe,” he said.
Worth noting: “Thus far, China’s reaction to North Korea’s support of Russia has been caught somewhere between paralysis and incompetence, lacking either the political will or policy ingenuity to create disincentives for either party,” said Cha. “For one, China does not like Russia to have so much influence over the North,” he said. “In addition, if the longer-term ramifications of this cooperation lead to greater DPRK capabilities that invite even more U.S. military presence and allied capabilities in China’s region, that does not benefit China.”
Update: The White House won’t greenlight long-range strikes inside Russia, and for reasons that have been known for months—including Russia’s movement of equipment out of the range of relevant U.S.-provided weapons (ATACMS, in particular) as well as the unpredictability of second-order effects from nuclear-armed Moscow, Fox’s Jacqui Heinrich reported Wednesday afternoon, citing a U.S. official.
This week in data: Russia’s military has used at least 36 types of missiles to attack Ukraine, CSIS researchers Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan reported Wednesday. “This diversity reflects an operational approach to firepower strikes of combining different models like long-range attack drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles to complicate the ability of Ukraine to defend its skies. Of note, many of these unique combinations were launched from different geographic sites further complicating air defense.”
That would seem to suggest “The United States and its partners need to do more to curb the ability of [Iran, China, and North Korea] to replenish Russia’s arsenal,” they warn. What’s more, “An overall intercept rate of 79.8 percent suggests effective defense mechanisms in place,” but “Keeping this intercept rate high will require continued Western support for Ukraine.” Read on, here.
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