The End of the Nagorno-Karabakh War

 

The End Of The Nagorno-Karabakh War: Retrospection, Clarification, And Forecast

Written by Andrew KORYBKO on 11/11/2020

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·         The end of the Nagorno-Karabakh War that was brought about by Armenia’s sudden Russian-facilitated surrender following its total defeat on the battlefield is the perfect time for reviewing why so many folks in the Alt-Media Community got it all wrong, clarifying the state of affairs as they exist after this conflict’s conclusion, and forecasting what might come next for the South Caucasus.

Azerbaijan’s Glorious Victory

The Nagorno-Karbakh War finally ended as a result of Armenia’s sudden Russian-facilitated surrender following its total defeat on the battlefield. The agreement that was reached between the Azerbaijani, Russian, and Armenian leaders can be read here on the official website of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It provides for the deployment of Russian peacekeepers along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin Corridor in parallel with the Armenian forces’ withdrawal from the universally recognized Azerbaijani territory that it had illegally occupied for nearly three decades. The Russian peacekeepers will remain there for five years but could have their mission extended for more five-year intervals pending the approval of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Either one of them, however, can declare their intent to terminate the agreement six months prior to the expiration of its term (as is likely to happen). Although not mentioned in the actual deal itself, Azerbaijani President Aliyev also said that Turkish peacekeepers will jointly carry out activities with Russia.

Additionally, the agreement allows for the return of all refugees and internally displaced people to the formerly occupied territories, as well as an exchange of prisoners, bodies, and other such humanitarian procedures. It can therefore be said that the deal will inevitably result in the full implementation of the four UNSC Resolutions on the matter (822, 853, 874, 884), but it interestingly goes a bit further than just that. The last of the nine terms concerns the creation of a corridor between the western regions of Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic via southern Armenia. Control over transport communication will be carried out by the Russian Border Guard Service, which highlights the crucial role that the Eurasian Great Power is playing in this visionary arrangement. All told, the deal represents an amazing victory for Azerbaijan, one which wouldn’t have happened without perfect unity between its President, Armed Forces, and people. They stood strong for nearly 30 years, concentrated on liberating their occupied territories, and finally fulfilled this legendary task.

A Clear Track Record Of Analytical Accuracy

The author took a very keen interest in their ultimately victorious counteroffensive since it began in late September, publishing 36 analytical articles about everything from the conflict’s history to the latest military dynamics and even the grand strategic factors at play. With humbleness and thanking God for the insight that He inspired, the author produced stunningly accurate analyses which even predicted the joint Russian-Turkish peacekeeping mission in mid-October at a time when most of the world was convinced that those two countries were destined to clash with one another. For the purpose of enlightening his readers, he’s sharing the chronological sequence of his work so that they can follow the evolution of his thoughts during this time and hopefully learn how to improve their own analyses in the event that they’re so inclined. His clear track record of analytical accuracy should also be contrasted with the commentary published by his peers in the Alt-Media Community, many of whom not only got everything totally wrong, but even in some cases completely discredited themselves after pushing propaganda that has since been conclusively debunked by the facts.

What Went Wrong?

Having proven his credibility and credentials to authoritatively speak on this topic, the author will now engage in some retrospection in order to educate everyone about the reasons why so many others got almost everything about this conflict so terribly wrong. It’s important to understand that media literacy played a huge role in why many people were deceived. They lacked the ability to differentiate between the various information products freely available to them such as journalism, investigations, analyses, op-eds, activism, propaganda, and even fake news, which he elaborated upon earlier in a piece about how “Media Literacy, Not Intimidation & Censorship, Is The Best Way To Fight So-Called Propaganda”. Better media literacy could have resulted in folks realizing that they were being deceived by certain supposedly “credible” sources, which in turn wouldn’t have led to so many false expectations about the course of this conflict. Equally important, however, was the effect of “wishful thinking”, “groupthink”, and “political correctness” in misleading the masses.

Pro-Armenian supporters “wishfully thought” that they’d continue to indefinitely perpetuate their illegal occupation of Azerbaijani territory, which led to them believing now-debunked reports which fed into their “confirmation bias”. Many analysts, however, were wrongly caught up in the dynamics of “groupthink” after convincing themselves that Russia and Turkey were “competing” in the South Caucasus, which blinded them to the reality of their tacit coordination during this conflict that ultimately resulted in their planned joint peacekeeping mission as announced by President Aliyev. Still others were aware of the truth but felt uncomfortable publicly sharing their views about it due to the heavy pressure put upon them by their peers to abide by the totalitarian concept of so-called “political correctness”. Taken together, these three factors led to ridiculously inaccurate claims being made about the most recent phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Most of these mistakes were “innocent”, but some might have been deliberately committed in order to deceive others.

The Immediate Consequences

The world is quickly waking up to the new reality that the Russian-Turkish Strategic Partnership is one of the most important forces in the so-called “Greater Middle East”, from Azerbaijan down through Syria and even as far afield as Libya. It used to be that those such as the author who analyzed this emerging geopolitical fact were regarded as “conspiracy theorists” or worse by their peers, but now the only “conspiracy theorists” are those who deny the transregional significance of their bilateral relations. The Alt-Media Community is mostly discredited now and will have to work extremely hard to rebuild the trust that it lost among its audience after unintentionally or deliberately deceiving them regarding this conflict. The same holds true for the Mainstream Media and think tanks, some of which might have in hindsight been functioning as undeclared lobbyists of the once-powerful Armenian diaspora that has actually been defanged as a result of these developments after proving itself unable to manipulate others into intervening in the conflict to save their colonial project.

Their emotional fearmongering that Azerbaijan was preparing to commit an imminent “genocide” against the Armenians was revealed to have been nothing more than a manipulative infoar narrative intended to provoke a larger war. It’ll arguably go down in history as being just as infamous as Bush Jr’s’ equally false “Weapons of Mass Destruction” claim which was made for the same reason but regrettably actually ended up resulting in the desired military outcome. Armenians are furious at being deceived by their “intellectuals” (both at home and abroad), as well as Pashinyan who suddenly capitulated despite reassuring everyone on an almost daily basis that there hadn’t been any losses whatsoever and that “total victory is within reach”. So enraged were they that they even stormed the national parliament the night that their country’s de-facto surrender was announced, which was incredibly ironic since it hints that a patriotic protest movement might eventually overthrow the same man who came to power on the back of a Soros-driven pro-Western Color Revolution.

What Comes Next?

It’s unclear whether Pashinyan will resign (and possibly flee abroad), be overthrown (and consequently risk suffering a fate as dark as Ceausescu’s), or somehow manage to retain power (albeit as a figurehead leader), but it’s obvious that his political capital isn’t anything like what it used to be. He’s personally responsible for sending potentially thousands of Armenian men into the Azerbaijani meat grinder over the past seven weeks for what ended up being no reason at all, hence why his people are so furious with him. Furthermore, his government is responsible for committing war crimes against the Azerbaijani people so he might even face justice as The Hague, especially if his people and/or military overthrow him (the latter possibly with an intent to receive reduced sentences and/or immunity for their own crimes by handing him over). Azerbaijan will also likely see to it that Armenia pays restitution for its years of illegal occupation. As for Russia, it might stop discussing reports of “mercenaries” in Nagorno-Karabakh since it seems that it was all just an Armenian lie.

Armenia’s Russian-facilitated surrender might soon lead to a rapprochement with neighboring Turkey too, which when paired with the Western Azerbaijan-Nakhchivan Corridor, could unlock the South Caucasus’ potential to serve as one of the most geostrategically crucial connectivity crossroads in the world. Azerbaijan already benefits from both the “Middle Corridor” connecting East-West trade between China and Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey as well as the North-South Transport Corridor connecting Russia with India via Azerbaijan and Iran, but now Armenia could excitedly be integrated into the mix in order to take advantage of the landlocked country’s “land-linked” capability (to borrow the term that similarly positioned Laos uses). For that promising future to happen, though, Armenians must denounce their fascist ideology of “Greater Armenia” just like Nazi Germany denounced its own genocidal expansionism after its war, make meaningful amends for their crimes, and earnestly embrace reconciliation with their neighbors.

Concluding Thoughts

The sudden end of the Nagorno-Karabakh War is a moment of reckoning for all. Azerbaijan single-handedly showed the international community that a united nation can indeed succeed in unilaterally implementing UNSC Resolutions which had hitherto been ignored out of “political convenience”. This powerfully proves that international law is still alive and well across the world despite what critics claim. Moreover, Russia’s mature response to the rapidly unfolding developments in remaining neutral despite intense pressure by the Armenian diaspora lobby and their surrogates to intervene in Yerevan’s support and Moscow’s pivotal role in facilitating Armenia’s de-facto surrender speak to the success of its (sometimes imperfectly executed) “balancing” act, which confirms its status both a peacemaker and also one of the world’s most important Great Powers. Nevertheless, it can be expected that some ultra-nationalist forces might wrongly try to blame Russia for Armenia’s seemingly “unexpected” loss in order to unconvincingly deflect blame from their own leaders.

It’s not just ultra-nationalist Armenians who might cling to this literal “conspiracy theory”, but perhaps even those non-Armenians in the Alt-Media and analytical communities whose work has been almost completely discredited by none other than their own hand after they submitted to “wishful thinking”, “groupthink”, “political correctness”, and/or willingly functioned as undeclared lobbyists of the previously powerful Armenian diaspora. Those supposedly Russian-friendly voices might now resort to political Russophobia out of desperation to save their own reputations instead of publicly accounting for their analytical errors and/or even apologizing for deceiving those who trusted them. In any case, their likely infowar meddling won’t have any meaningful impact on derailing the bright future that awaits the South Caucasus. This geostrategic region can now fulfill its destiny in serving as the crucial node for connecting North-South and East-West trade across Eurasia, which will bring immense benefits to its many people and greatly accelerate the reconstruction of Nagorno-Karabakh as well.

OneWorld

Andrew KORYBKO

American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China's One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare.