RealClear World - The High Stakes of the China State Visit - By Carolina Lumetta - RCP StaffSeptember 23, 2026

  RealClear World

The High Stakes of the China State Visit

By Carolina Lumetta - RCP StaffSeptember 23, 2026

The High Stakes of the China State VisitAP

The White House rolls out the red carpet this week for Chinese President Xi Jinping and First Lady Peng Liyuan, the second such state visit between Trump and Xi this year.

Xi is no stranger to the United States. He’s been here a dozen times, starting in the 1980s when he visited Iowa as a student to learn about American agriculture. He has made five previous trips since assuming the presidency of his country, including a 2015 state visit hosted by President Barack Obama)

He might find the environment quite welcoming. The first Trump administration pivoted from decades of precedent to emphasize competition with China instead of engagement. The second administration appears to be balancing between the two. At the same time, views of China within the United States have warmed.

A Chicago Council Survey released this week found that Americans are less likely to view China as a threat compared to only a couple of years ago. In 2024, the same survey found most Americans rated China at 26 out of 100 in terms of favorability. That number is now 39. Around 57% of Americans say the United States should pursue cooperation and engagement with China, although the sentiment divides along political lines. Respondents who self-identified as MAGA Republicans largely want the administration to be more resistant to Chinese power (63%).

This week’s meeting comes with several backdrops: competition over artificial intelligence, the persistent threat of a trade war, stalled political prisoners, and questions over Trump’s position on Taiwan.

Artificial Intelligence: Trump has repeatedly argued that China’s computing ability is a risk to the United States and that “whoever wins AI, wins.” In recent days, Trump has begun to respond to public disapproval and confusion over artificial intelligence development. In a series of public postings on X, he suggested rebranding the term to “super intelligence.” (In one post, Trump said supreme intelligence has negative connotations with the Supreme Court, which he criticized last week for a series of decisions that did not side with the administration.) Whatever he calls it, the topic is expected to dominate discussions between the two leaders this week.

Former Defense Department director Jason Rathje, who is now the president of Public Sector at webAI, warns that the Trump administration should maintain its position of beating China in the AI race, not working with it.

“Every country wants to have an AI solution that they own, that can generate national and economic security for their population,” Rathje said. “I think the race between the United States and China is one that’s colored by different facets of the technology, whether that’s closed frontier labs or open source, advancing the science or the application. But one thing is certain: the U.S. needs to maintain and grow the lead to ensure national economic security.”

On Saturday, Trump announced he would launch an “AI Force,” similar to the sixth and newest military branch, the Space Force. He also said he will recruit an AI “czar.” His announcement did not include any suggested names for the position or when the force will become operational or what it would do. In a Sunday interview with Fox News, Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, said it would coordinate the government’s AI work across all agencies.

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was already meeting with the Chinese delegation in New York. He told reporters that both sides discussed a proposal for an AI safety notification mechanism to give mutual alerts in a national security emergency.

“We think that just like with any cross-border activity, that moving from opaque to more transparency between the number one and the number two AI powers in the world is very important,” Bessent said.

Rathje said that even pending deals should be secondary to national security.

“You go to war with the technology you have,” Rathje told RCP. “You want to make sure that we always provide our warfighters with technology that makes sure they have the best tools to do their jobs. With any conversation that happens this week, I hope what we see out of this is a continued push from the Pentagon to accelerate the technology.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson teased last week that the White House is seeking a meeting with AI executives, potentially this week. But the White House has not yet announced a meeting. But an impressive assembly will be attending a state dinner on Thursday: Amazon executive chairman Jeff Bezos, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell, Nvidia President and CEO Jensen Huang, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, and former Apple CEO Tim Cook.

Trade: Piero Tozzi, senior director of China policy at the America First Policy Institute, said there are certainly tense hurdles surrounding the meeting, including the fraught topic of tariffs, but that keeping engagement open is crucial.

“There’s an interest on both sides at least in the short term of maintaining stability,” Tozzi told RCP. “Long term, I think there’s recognition of the threat that China represents. One of the accomplishments of the first Trump administration was that he ended that period of engagement.”

As of now, the Trump administration has granted exemptions from hefty tariffs on 178 categories of products coming from China, but they are scheduled to expire Nov. 10, shortly after Election Day. Xi is likely pursuing an extension of those exemptions. On the American side, avoiding a trade war with China could also be good politics for Republicans.

“The economy’s had some hiccups with the conflict in Iran,” Tozzi said. “We’ve seen oil prices go up and down, so I think the president certainly has an incentive between now and Election Day to make sure that the economy remains as stable as possible and doesn’t have any shocks.”

Asked about rumors that Trump will reduce tariffs, a senior administration official told reporters on a press call that the United States is not considering reducing export controls in exchange for rare earth minerals. The official also said the administration is not working on any changes to lessen the red tape for Chinese investments into the American auto market.  

“I think the president’s comments speak for themselves, but I will say that he is not interested in compromising on our national security,” the official said. “Some of the rules and regulations that present hurdles would still have to be met for some of these types of investments to occur.”

Taiwan: Following the summit in May, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he spoke extensively with Xi about Taiwan. In his retelling, Trump said Xi asked if the United States would defend Taiwan from an attack. Trump declined to answer. He also said at the time he was still weighing whether to approve a pending $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. That sale has still been stalled.

That worries numerous foreign policy analysts. Cornell University professor Allen Carlson said that Trump’s pause violates the Taiwan Relations Act, which stipulates the U.S. will not consult with China on any arms sales to Taiwan. Trump called the pending sales a “good negotiating chip.” Carlson said Xi sees part of his legacy as doing anything to block Taiwanese independence and to ultimately reclaim it.

“[Trump] has sort of moved the goalpost on Taiwan already, based on his comments from the beginning of the year and then around the summit in Beijing,” Carlson told RCP. “So already Beijing is in a stronger position in one of its core national interests than it was before. I think they would love to get further concessions from Trump, either on the language of opposing Taiwanese independence or putting a moratorium on arms sales.”

Following the summit in China, the administration reiterated that no policy positions on Taiwan have changed.

“I would look to actions, not words,” Tozzi said. “Of course, Taiwan will come up because the Chinese always bring it up. But we continue to do exercises with Taiwan, we train Taiwanese troops. The U.S., Japan, and Korea recently released a statement calling for stability with regards to weapons sales. Even if there’s a pause in the latest weapon sales, Taiwan has weapons that are on order.”

Humanitarian Concerns: The State Department has publicly declared that China is wrongfully detaining two American citizens, one since 2024 and one since June of this year. But the real number could be higher. The James W. Foley Legacy Foundation says at least 12 Americans are currently detained. China does not publish detention information, and the State Department and families do not always reveal the same due to sensitive negotiations.

Seventy-eight-year-old journalist and democracy advocate Jimmy Lai has also remained in a prison in Hong Kong since 2020. While not an American citizen, Lai has a strong following in the United States and among the global Christian community. Trump has previously called on Xi to release Lai. During Trump’s visit to China in May, he said he pressed Xi to release Lai along with a pastor, Ezra Jin. Jin was released in July and returned to the United States on July 4. But Lai’s 20-year sentence has not changed.

During a congressional hearing on Sept. 16, Rep. Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican, told OSV News that Trump should push harder.

“One quick phone call, and it’s done,” Smith said of Xi. “That’s what President Trump has to convey.”

Vicky Hartzler was previously the chair of the U.S. Commission for International Religious Freedom until her term expired in May. Now the vice chair of the board for Concerned Women for America, she said the administration cannot forget China’s high ranking on the State Department’s list of Countries of Particular Concern.

“It gets that designation because it meets the criteria of ongoing, egregious, and systematic violations,” Hartzler told RCP.  She praised Trump for advocating for Jin’s release. “But there are many other pastors that are still there. In fact, with Pastor Jin’s church, there were several other pastors taken at the same time he was arrested.”

In a press call ahead of the summit, a senior White House administration official told reporters he expects the general topic of wrongful detentions of Americans to come up.

“Every time, he raises Americans that have been wrongfully detained, and sometimes folks that aren’t Americans that are wrongfully detained in China, if that’s any indication,” the official said. “I can’t predict the future, but if I had to guess, he will be consistent again this time.”

Trump will greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews just outside Washington on Wednesday afternoon. They will then proceed to an arrival ceremony at the White House and a Rose Garden military review before starting a bilateral meeting. On Thursday, they will have a private tea at the White House and then go on a tour of the National Archives to see the United States’ founding documents. The visit will conclude with a state dinner on Thursday night in the East Room.

Carolina Lumetta is White House correspondent for RealClearPolitics. Follow her on X @CarolinaLumett