THE D -Brief - OCTOBER 1, 2024 - Middle East, There are now an estimated 43,000 American troops and at least a dozen U.S. ships in or near the Middle East and more...

 

October 1, 2024

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Mideast on edge

Israeli troops have launched additional ground operations inside Lebanon, advancing their gradual escalation northward to push Iran-backed terrorists out of weapons caches and hideouts across southern Lebanon. The Israeli military describes these latest maneuvers as “limited, localized, targeted operations” whose goals include “dismantling Hamas, bringing our hostages back home and restoring security in northern Israel.”   Developing: Iran is allegedly preparing another ballistic missile attack on Israel, possibly similar to what it carried out in mid-April, Barak Ravid of Axios reported Tuesday, citing White House officials. “We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack,” the administration official said, and warned, “A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran.”    Rewind: Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel featured an estimated 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and at least 120 ballistic missiles. After extensive interceptions by Israeli air defense systems—and by U.S., Saudi and Jordanian assets—those attacks resulted in no deaths, but more than two dozen people were reportedly injured from shrapnel and debris.

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Also new: Israeli jets allegedly struck several locations in southern Syria on Tuesday, including the al-Thaala Airbase, and early warning radar site in Tel al-Kharouf, an army base in al-Nahta, an airbase near Maliha al-Atrash, and the Syrian army's 7th Air Defense Brigade near al-Sanamayn, according to Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute in Washington.    For what it’s worth: Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin seems to have given his blessing to Israel’s ground raids into southern Lebanon. After a call Monday with his Israeli counterpart, Austin wrote on social media that he “agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Lebanese Hizballah cannot conduct October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern communities.” He also “reiterated the serious consequences for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel,” according to his statement.  Update: There are now an estimated 43,000 American troops and at least a dozen U.S. ships in or near the Middle East after officials added troops and equipment over the past few days, the Associated Press reported following a tight-lipped briefing Monday at the Pentagon.    What’s new? “A certain number of units already deployed to the Middle East…will be extended, and the forces due to rotate into theater to replace them will now instead augment the in-place forces,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said.   “I won't talk specific timelines or numbers for OpSec reasons, but I can tell you these augmented forces include F-16, F-15E, A-10, F-22 fighter aircraft and associated personnel,” she added.  Meanwhile near Yemen, a suspected Houthi drone boat attacked another commercial ship in the Red Sea, British maritime authorities reported Tuesday. That attack punctured a “port ballast tank” that helps the vessel to stay afloat and under control.    A separate attack in a similar location by a single missile reportedly damaged a second commercial ship.    The two vessels attacked: Panamanian-flagged crude tanker Cordelia Moon and Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Courage, according to industry-watcher Sal Mercogliano. Both vessels were heading north toward the Suez Canal, the Associated Press reports from Dubai.    Worth noting: “CORDELIA MOON is currently empty,” which “makes her MORE explosive…as well as a more attainable target due to her increased height above sea level,” the monitoring account TankerTrackers reported after the strikes Tuesday.   FWIW: The Houthis also claim to have shot down another U.S.-made MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to allegations aired Monday. The Houthis have in the past shot down several MQ-9s over Yemen; but they’ve also made several similar claims without releasing any supporting evidence. So far there is no supporting evidence for this latest allegation.  The October 7 attacks, one year on: Monday is the one-year anniversary of Hamas terrorists’ surprise attack on Israel, which killed more than 1,100 Israelis and helped fan the flames of war that’s swept through Gaza and now into southern Lebanon.   Several U.S. think tanks are hosting panel discussions this week at least partly in an effort to envision what might lie ahead for the region and for U.S. interests throughout the Middle East. Questions include:  What more can be done to prevent wider regional escalation? What is the likely trajectory over the next few months towards a durable ceasefire? What is the future of Israel’s military presence in Gaza?  Is a Palestinian state in the offing?   Events have been planned at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, which invited Dana Stroul, the recently departed U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary for the Middle East, for a conversation that took place this morning.   Washington’s American Enterprise Institute invited former U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula for a discussion on the afternoon of Oct. 7.    And London’s Royal United Services Institute is hosting a panel with four of its experts next Monday as well at about 8 a.m. ET. Details and registration here. (Did we omit your think tank or research institute? Drop us a note to let us know.)

Around the Defense Department Replicator 2 effort aims to produce anti-drone defenses. Thirteen months after the Pentagon launched an attempt to buy small drones fast and cheap enough for an actual war, a second phase will try to do the same for anti-drone systems. “Dubbed Replicator 2, the effort will focus on the threat to installations and “force concentrations,” according to a Sept. 27 memo released on Monday from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. The Pentagon will ask for money for the effort in the fiscal 2026 budget request now under construction and that deliveries will be expected within 24 months of the budget’s passage, reports Defense One’s Sam Skove.   By the way: The Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit is looking for help building the kind of drones that Replicator 2 aims to down. Read their request, issued Monday. Video: Russian fighter jet nearly sideswipes U.S. F-16. On Monday, U.S. aircraft intercepted Russian warplanes in the Alaskan air defense identification zone, said Gen. Gregory Guillot, who leads U.S. Northern Command. “The conduct of one Russian Su-35 was unsafe, unprofessional, and endangered all—not what you’d see in a professional air force,” Guillot said in a statement that accompanied cockpit video of the Russian maneuver. Watch, here.  The Navy’s new missile sub could cost “hundreds of millions” more than the service estimates, the Government Accountability Office says in a blunt report released on Monday. GAO says the Navy and General Dynamics Electric Boat, the prime contractor on the Columbia class, still haven’t fixed the problems that drove the cost of the lead boat to an estimated $8.6 billion and put it 12 to 16 months behind schedule—even as they move into a complicated phase of construction that is likely to bring new challenges. Worse, neither the Navy nor Electric Boat fully understands why the problems happened in the first place, says the report.    Don’t miss the report’s explanation of “supplier development funding,” the billions of dollars that the Navy has spent since 2018 to upgrade suppliers’ factories and place advance orders in a bid to prop up the 3,500 companies that make components for submarines. Defense One’s Lauren C. Williams reports, here. Can cellphones spot Russian jammers? A U.S. firm that’s running experiments in Ukraine has found that phones can be networked together to reveal when one or more is under electronic threat, Sean Gorman, a founder of Zephr, tells Defense One’s Patrick Tucker. Read on, here. Developing: More than 5,000 National Guard troops from at least nine different states have teamed up to help with Hurricane Helene relief efforts, the Pentagon said Monday. That includes troops from Connecticut, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, New York, South Carolina, Florida, and North Carolina. Florida alone has involved nearly 3,500 of its Guardsmen “along with hundreds of tactical vehicles, and boats, and 11 rotary wing assets,” Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement.    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has sent personnel to Georgia, as well as dam, levee and bridge inspection specialists to Tennessee and Kentucky while others are working to restore temporary power to North Carolina.   “Helene is already one of the deadliest, costliest storms to hit the US,” USA Today reports. So far, more than 100 people have died from the powerful storm as it swept north from the Florida coast. “Only eight hurricanes have killed more than 100 people since 1950, the last time a storm as deadly as Helene hit the US came in 2017, when Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Houston and was blamed for 103 deaths,” USA Today writes. Read more, here.

Stoltenberg steps down And lastly: NATO finally has a new chief in former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. He took the helm Tuesday after the departure of Norway’s Jens Stoltenberg, who at 10 years was the alliance’s second-longest serving secretary-general in its seven-and-a-half decade history.    Rutte listed three goals for NATO at the outset of his new tenure:  “We must spend more. There is no cost-free alternative if we are to rise to the challenges ahead and keep our one billion people safe,” he said; The alliance must “Step up our support for Ukraine…because there can be no lasting security in Europe without a strong, independent Ukraine”;  And he intends to “strengthen our partnerships” with countries outside the 32-member alliance.   “Rutte has an impressive track record as a consensus-builder and decisive leader,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement. He also shared his “deep gratitude to Jens Stoltenberg, who led the Alliance through the most consequential decade for Euro-Atlantic security since World War II.”   Stoltenberg’s parting thoughts: “We have undergone the biggest transformation of NATO in a generation,” rising from “zero to eight NATO battlegroups, with tens of thousands of combat-ready NATO soldiers on our eastern flank,” he said Tuesday in Brussels. “We have gone from thousands to half a million troops on high readiness, and from three to twenty-three allies spending at least two percent of GDP on defence,” he said.    Read more: “New NATO boss Rutte pledges support for Ukraine, plays down Trump fears,” via Reuters, reporting Tuesday from Brussels.

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LATEST PODCAST Ep. 163: The 2024 Air, Space & Cyber conference Audrey Decker explains some of the top developments out of this year's AFA conference outside Washington. Listen Here

Today in history On this day 100 years ago, the 39th President of the United States Jimmy Carter was born in Plains, Georgia. The former Navy submariner is the first U.S. president to live to 100.  Want more news? Sign up for our other newsletters. For breaking news and other updates, follow our staff on social media.