Also new: Israeli jets allegedly struck several locations in southern Syria on Tuesday, including the al-Thaala Airbase, and early warning radar site in Tel al-Kharouf, an army base in al-Nahta, an airbase near Maliha al-Atrash, and the Syrian army's 7th Air Defense Brigade near al-Sanamayn, according to Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute in Washington.
For what it’s worth: Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin seems to have given his blessing to Israel’s ground raids into southern Lebanon. After a call Monday with his Israeli counterpart, Austin wrote on social media that he “agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Lebanese Hizballah cannot conduct October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern communities.” He also “reiterated the serious consequences for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel,” according to his statement.
Update: There are now an estimated 43,000 American troops and at least a dozen U.S. ships in or near the Middle East after officials added troops and equipment over the past few days, the Associated Press reported following a tight-lipped briefing Monday at the Pentagon.
What’s new? “A certain number of units already deployed to the Middle East…will be extended, and the forces due to rotate into theater to replace them will now instead augment the in-place forces,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said.
“I won't talk specific timelines or numbers for OpSec reasons, but I can tell you these augmented forces include F-16, F-15E, A-10, F-22 fighter aircraft and associated personnel,” she added.
Meanwhile near Yemen, a suspected Houthi drone boat attacked another commercial ship in the Red Sea, British maritime authorities reported Tuesday. That attack punctured a “port ballast tank” that helps the vessel to stay afloat and under control.
A separate attack in a similar location by a single missile reportedly damaged a second commercial ship.
The two vessels attacked: Panamanian-flagged crude tanker Cordelia Moon and Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Courage, according to industry-watcher Sal Mercogliano. Both vessels were heading north toward the Suez Canal, the Associated Press reports from Dubai.
Worth noting: “CORDELIA MOON is currently empty,” which “makes her MORE explosive…as well as a more attainable target due to her increased height above sea level,” the monitoring account TankerTrackers reported after the strikes Tuesday.
FWIW: The Houthis also claim to have shot down another U.S.-made MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to allegations aired Monday. The Houthis have in the past shot down several MQ-9s over Yemen; but they’ve also made several similar claims without releasing any supporting evidence. So far there is no supporting evidence for this latest allegation.
The October 7 attacks, one year on: Monday is the one-year anniversary of Hamas terrorists’ surprise attack on Israel, which killed more than 1,100 Israelis and helped fan the flames of war that’s swept through Gaza and now into southern Lebanon.
Several U.S. think tanks are hosting panel discussions this week at least partly in an effort to envision what might lie ahead for the region and for U.S. interests throughout the Middle East. Questions include:
- What more can be done to prevent wider regional escalation?
- What is the likely trajectory over the next few months towards a durable ceasefire?
- What is the future of Israel’s military presence in Gaza?
- Is a Palestinian state in the offing?
Events have been planned at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, which invited Dana Stroul, the recently departed U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary for the Middle East, for a conversation that took place this morning.
Washington’s American Enterprise Institute invited former U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula for a discussion on the afternoon of Oct. 7.
And London’s Royal United Services Institute is hosting a panel with four of its experts next Monday as well at about 8 a.m. ET. Details and registration here. (Did we omit your think tank or research institute? Drop us a note to let us know.)
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