Critical Threats (CT) and ISW ( Institute for the Srtudy of War Iran Crisis Updates Iran Update October 03, 2024

 

Critical Threats (CT) and ISW ( Institute for the Srtudy of War

Iran Crisis Updates 

Iran Update October 03, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued advancing into southern Lebanon on October 3. Geolocated imagery indicates Israeli troop movements around the western axis of advance, specifically around Aitaroun and Yaroun.[i] The IDF Golani Brigade (36th Division) coordinated with the IDF Air Force to strike Hezbollah militants in nearby buildings.[ii] Hezbollah claimed that it engaged Israeli forces as they advanced.[iii] Hezbollah claimed that it detonated improvised explosive devices (IED) targeting the IDF around Maroun al Ras and that it detonated a “barrel bomb” targeting the IDF around Yaroun.[iv] A Hezbollah-affiliated reporter claimed that Hezbollah prepared ambushes beforehand.[v] The IDF previously announced on October 1 that it would soon operate in this general area to clear it of Hezbollah militants and infrastructure and asked civilians to evacuate.[vi] Hezbollah-affiliated sources separately reported that the IDF is operating around Kfar Kila around the eastern axis of advance.[vii] The IDF reportedly estimated that it has killed over 100 Hezbollah militants since launching ground operations into Lebanon on October 1.[viii] Hezbollah appears to have stopped posting obituaries for its militants in this time.[ix] IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi visited the Israeli forces on the Israel-Lebanon border and vowed to continue efforts against Hezbollah.[x]

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) said that an Israeli strike killed an LAF soldier in southern Lebanon on October 3.[xi] The LAF said that Lebanese soldiers returned fire after the strike.[xii] A Lebanese security source told Reuters that this incident marked the first time that the LAF has fired at Israeli forces in the war.[xiii]

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson called on civilians to evacuate immediately from 25 towns in southern Lebanon.[xiv] The spokesperson told residents that they should head north of the Awali River, which is 30 miles north of the Litani River.[xv] The 25 towns that the IDF identified are all north of the Litani River.[xvi] The IDF conducted several airstrikes in at least two of the specified towns on October 3.[xvii]

The IDF continued its air campaign targeting Hezbollah capabilities, infrastructure, and leadership across Lebanon on October 3.[xviii] The IDF Air Force struck over 200 Hezbollah targets, including Hezbollah militants and infrastructure, including observation posts and weapons depots.[xix] The IDF 210th Division directed an airstrike that targeted and killed the local Hezbollah commander for the Shebaa Farms and Mount Hermon area.[xx] The IDF said the commander was responsible for the Hezbollah attack that killed 12 children in the Golan Heights in July 2024.[xxi] The commander also oversaw hundreds of rocket and anti-tank guided missile attacks targeting IDF positions on Mount Dov, Mount Hermon, and the northern Golan Heights.[xxii]

The IDF conducted numerous strikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and intelligence networks in Beirut on October 3. The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson asked residents of the Haret Hreik, Burj al Barajneh, and Hadath West neighborhoods to evacuate at least 500 meters from specific buildings that the IDF identified as “Hezbollah facilities.”[xxiii] Local sources reported that the IDF then conducted strikes targeting across several neighborhoods in southern Beirut.[xxiv] The IDF also conducted a strike that targeted an apartment complex in Bachoura, Beirut, marking the second time that the IDF has struck a target within Beirut city limits.[xxv] The IDF said that it struck several targets affiliated with Hezbollah's intelligence branch in Beirut, including intelligence unit members, collection instruments, and other infrastructure.[xxvi] The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that nine people were killed and 14 injured in Israeli strikes on Beirut.[xxvii]

The IDF stated that Hezbollah has used a civilian border crossing near Damascus as its “main” route for receiving military equipment and weapons from Syria to deliver to southern Lebanon.[xxviii] The IDF stated that the transfer of weapons through Masnaa border crossing follows the IDF airstrikes on seven border crossings along the Syria-Lebanon border on September 26.[xxix] The IDF urged the Lebanese government to conduct strict inspections of trucks passing through civilian crossings and to turn weapons carrying trucks back to Syria.[xxx] The Lebanese Transport Minister Ali Hamieh said that the Lebanese government will monitor all border crossings following the accusations.[xxxi]

This map illustrates individual Israeli air and artillery strikes based on local Lebanese reporting. This map depicts strikes reported from 2:00pm ET on October 2 to 2:00pm ET on October 3. This map is not exhaustive. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the locations of Israeli strikes.

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: The IDF continued advancing into southern Lebanon. The IDF reportedly estimates that it has killed over 100 Lebanese Hezbollah militants during its ground operation. The IDF also issued calls for further evacuations.

Lebanon: The IDF continued its air campaign targeting Lebanese Hezbollah capabilities, infrastructure, and leadership. The IDF conducted several strikes in Beirut specifically targeting the Hezbollah intelligence apparatus.

Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will lead Friday prayers in Tehran on October 4, during which he will speak publicly on the war against Israel. Khamenei very rarely leads Friday prayers and reserves the right for especially sensitive times for the Islamic Republic.

SEE FULL UPDATE

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The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War will provide regular updates, including daily updates, as the crisis warrants