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Dear Önder, Welcome to Wednesday. Here’s what we have for you today:
Enjoy! – The Daily crew  Seoul says Pyongyang “highly likely” to deploy troops to UkraineDefense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told South Korea’s legislature on Tuesday that Pyongyang was “highly likely” to deploy troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, a serious escalation in North Korea’s support for Russia. Kim also said reports that a Ukrainian missile strike in Donetsk killed six North Korean officers on Oct. 3 were credible. The warning comes the day after North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un called Russian President Vladimir Putin his “closest comrade” in a warm birthday message. The two countries have steadily drawn closer since Russia invaded Ukraine, and they signed a mutual defense pact in June. Pyongyang has been happy to supply war materiel — Western intelligence estimates half of the artillery shells Russia uses in Ukraine are North Korean — but the Korean People’s Army has never deployed abroad. What could Russia promise in exchange? In January, Kim called to change the North Korean constitution to renounce peaceful reunification with the South and said the army should prepare for “occupying, subjugating, and claiming” Seoul’s territory. On Friday, he said he would use nuclear weapons on South Korea if it used force to encroach on North Korea. It may be easier to make such threats if Kim feels Moscow has his back militarily — maybe by helping with projects like new nuclear submarines, for example. China, usually North Korea’s great power patron, is displeased with this deepening Moscow-Pyongyang friendship. It has reportedly tried to turn the screws on North Korea by, for example, deporting guest workers, but all that seems to have been achieved is a cooling of bilateral ties, as evidenced by their rote and mild exchange of letters to commemorate the 75th anniversary of ties on Sunday. Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says the lack of pull is becoming embarrassing for Beijing. “It’s convenient for Beijing to say ‘What do you want us to do in Ukraine? Even if we turn off our support for Moscow, they're still going to fight that battle.’ but if there is any country in the world in which the Chinese should be able to call their shots, it's North Korea. But Kim is showing that they actually can’t, and North Korean troops in Ukraine will show that Beijing's pressure campaign is backfiring.” he says. Israel says presumed successor to Nasrallah has been killedIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Hashem Safieddine, the presumed successor to slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, had died in an airstrike in Beirut, but it has not been confirmed by Hezbollah. News of the purported assassination came the same day that the Israeli military deployed the 146th Division “Ha-Mapatz” to its invasion of southern Lebanon, where it joined three other divisions in attempting to push Hezbollah back from the border area. Netanyahu reiterated his priority of enabling 60,000 Israeli civilians evacuated from the North to return home. He also warned that Lebanon faces “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza” if the Lebanese people do not “free” themselves of Hezbollah. Israel has urged Lebanese civilians to flee north of the Awali River, about 15 miles north of the border. The number of troops committed — full-strength Israeli divisions number 10,000 - 15,000 soldiers, though entire divisions are not always deployed simultaneously — tells Eurasia Group’s Cliff Kupchan that Israel is determined to completely scour out a buffer zone, some of which they may occupy. “Whatever northern boundary they pick, they really want to destroy any Hezbollah infrastructure or potential for presence within that boundary,” he says. “I think the number of troops reflects the difficulty of the challenge and Israeli goals to absolutely dismantle any potential threat Hezbollah could use the buffer area to shell northern Israel.” Kamala Harris’ media blitz sheds no light on her China policyDemocratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has faced criticism, and not just from her opponent, for doing too few interviews. In recent days, she has tried to remedy that, beginning with an appearance on the long-running US news show “60 Minutes.” The interviewers on this program, in particular, are known for asking tough questions. (Donald Trump declined a “60 Minutes” interview.) Harris’ interview, which aired Monday night, offered a window into her thinking on foreign policy. On the war in Ukraine, Harris pledged she would not pressure Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to offer Russia concessions in exchange for peace and that she would not negotiate with Russia’s Vladimir Putin without Zelensky present. She charged that, if Trump were elected, he would essentially hand Ukraine to Putin. Harris also identified Iran as America’s main international adversary. On border security, she accused Trump of playing politics and promised that “solutions are at hand.” But, she added, “we need Congress to be able to act to actually fix the problem.” In the “60 Minutes” interview, Harris was not questioned about US policy toward Beijing, and she has notably shared very few thoughts on US-China relations throughout her three-month campaign. During her debate with Trump last month, she said “a policy about China should be in making sure the United States of America wins the competition for the 21st century,” and she has noted the Biden administration’s efforts to boost American technological advancement. But this has not translated into foreign policy proposals. Trump, meanwhile, has had plenty to say about the economic and security rivalry, and Chinese officials are surely watching closely. The Harris media blitz continues. On Tuesday, she appeared on “The View” on ABC, “The Howard Stern Show,” and “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” on CBS. On Thursday, she’ll take on a Town Hall in Nevada moderated by Univision, the country’s largest Spanish-language news network. Mozambique votes as insurgency blocks oil richesThe resource-rich southeast African nation of 35 million people heads into national legislative and presidential elections on Wednesday in which the party that has run the sub-Saharan country for half a century faces its stiffest challenge in years. Who’s running? The incumbent FRELIMO party, a leftist former rebel group that has governed since independence from Portugal in 1975, is running party general secretary Daniel Chapo, a former provincial governor. His main opponent is independent candidate Venancio Mondlane, a charismatic one-time banker who broke away from the main opposition party last year. Mondlane has capitalized on frustration with Frelimo’s half-century rule and drawn outsized support from young people. In a first, both of the top candidates were born after – or just months before – independence. What’s at stake? The key challenge is to raise living standards in a country where nearly two-thirds of the population lives in extreme poverty. A big part of that will be quashing a jihadist insurgency that has halted a series of huge natural gas projects that could transform the country by opening export markets in South and East Asia. Who is likely to win? Frelimo looks positioned to win, say experts, owing to its incumbency advantages and the possibility that opposition to Chapo will be split. For more, see our Viewpoint on the election by Eurasia Group Africa expert Ziyanda Stuurman here.
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 After being relatively absent this campaign cycle, Melania Trump has decided the pen will be her sword in Donald Trump’s fight for the White House. The former first lady dropped her memoir, “Melania,” on Tuesday, just 27 days before the election, in which she breaks from her husband on immigration and abortion but refuses to concede that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. Does she disagree with Trump? Does she have his ear? Was she enraged by the Stormy Daniels affair? How protective is she of her son, Barron Trump? GZERO’s Riley Callanan read “Melania” to answer these questions and more. Get her full story here.
 Bob Woodward’s new book, “War,” claims Donald Trump phoned the Russian president seven times after he left office. Our award-winning satire series Puppet Regime has obtained an exclusive tape of those calls! See it all here.
 9: Millions have boarded up, sandbagged, and evacuated their homes in Florida this week as Hurricane Milton barrels through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Sunshine State. Deemed a Category 5 storm on Tuesday, with winds reaching speeds of up to 180 mph, Milton is expected to weaken slightly but still bring an "extremely life-threatening situation" when it makes landfall Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency – still busy with the impact of last month’s Hurricane Helene – reported this week that only 9% of its personnel, or 1,217 staffers, were available to help with new disaster relief efforts. 3.3: About 3.3% of US high school students identify as transgender, according to a new survey. The first-of-its-kind study also revealed 2.2% of students are questioning their gender identity. About 10% of transgender students reported suicide attempts, 10 times that of cisgender boys. Transgender issues are at the center of America’s culture wars – while most Americans favor discrimination protections for transgender people, support for restrictions on transgender care and education is significantly higher among Republicans than among Democrats. 13: TikTok is in legal hot water again as 13 US states and the District of Columbia have filed a lawsuit against the short-form video platform alleging that it breaks US consumer protection laws and has exacerbated a mental health crisis among teenagers. The suit comes as TikTok faces the prospect of being banned outright in the US next January unless it cuts ties with its China-based parent company ByteDance. 42: An alliance committed to restoring Kashmir’s autonomy within India won the region’s elections, which culminated on Oct. 8, taking 48 of the local legislature’s 90 seats. The vote was the first since Kashmir was stripped of its special status in 2019 by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist BJP party won just 29 seats in the Kashmir election. However, the BJP also looked set to win a surprise victory in the state of Haryana – a result that the opposition Congress party is contesting. 7,000: The Dominican Republic has deported at least 7,000 Haitians since last Thursday alone. The move is part of a new policy in which the Dominican government says it will deport up to 10,000 undocumented migrants weekly amid rising concerns about crime and lawlessness. The government of Haiti, which is currently mired in a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis, has blasted the deportations as “an affront to human dignity.”
Watch: “We Live in Time.” Directed by John Crowley, this film has a very simple story, and nothing you haven’t heard before. The story, which follows Almut (Florence Pugh) and Tobias (Andrew Garfield) as they fall in love and she falls ill, is a master class in storytelling and acting. The tight close-ups make it feel like you’re in the room witnessing their intimacy. It’s a beautiful story, not a sad one, and the chemistry between Garfield and Pugh is undeniable. To top it all, it’s also Garfield’s first movie in three years. – Suhani Listen: “El Tiny,” NPR Music’s fourth annual Tiny Desk concert series to celebrate Hispanic Heritage Month. The theme for 2024 is “love,” exploring Latino identity and expression through music with iconic artists like Juanes, Sheila E, and Eladio Carrion. The showstopper, though, is Argentine power duo Ca7riel & Paco Amoroso whose performance is going viral for its infectious energy, creative drum beats, horn harmonies, and all-around excellent vibe. – Molly Rubin, producer, “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer” Reel in: “The Years.” French Nobel Laureate Annie Ernaux’s most celebrated work, “The Years,” traces the author’s life in a series of vignettes beginning with her as a child in the 1940s and ending just after 9/11. But the book, which takes the plural perspective “we,” is also a “collective autobiography” of a whole generation. Ernaux’s famously taut prose peels back the meanings of everything from childhood dreams to family meals, sexual encounters, and consumer culture, to politics, technology, and memory. It’s part autobiography, part tour de force of cultural criticism. But in the end, it’s a simple act, she writes, of “saving things from the time where we will never be again.” – Alex
This edition of GZERO Daily was produced by Writers Riley Callanan, Matthew Kendrick, Alex Kliment, Willis Sparks, and Managing Editor Tracy Moran. |
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