CT - Critical Threats and ISW ( Institute for the study of War) IRAN CRISIS UPDATES Iran Update, October 13, 2024

 

CT - Critical Threats  and ISW ( Institute for the study of War) 

IRAN CRISIS UPDATES 

Iran Update, October 13, 2024

The United States deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system and US military personnel to operate the system to Israel on October 13 to bolster Israeli air defenses following the April 13 and October 1 Iranian attacks on Israel. The THAAD system is a “ground-based interceptor designed to shoot down ballistic missiles.” Iran fired approximately 120 ballistic missiles at Israel in its April 13 attack and approximately 180 ballistic missiles in its October 1 attack. The Wall Street Journal reported on October 13 that less than 100 US military personnel will operate the THAAD system in Israel. The Pentagon stated that the deployment of the THAAD system underscores the United States’ “ironclad commitment” to defending Israel. The United States previously deployed a THAAD system to the Middle East following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack into Israel. The United States also deployed a THAAD system to Israel in 2019 for “training and an integrated air defense exercise.” Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to the deployment of the anti-missile system on October 13, warning that the United States is “putting [the] lives of its troops at risk by deploying them to...Israel.” Araghchi added that Iran has “no red lines” in defending its interests and people.

US officials told NBC on October 12 that they believe Israel has “narrowed down” its targets for a retaliatory attack on Iran. The officials stated that the targets include Iranian military and energy infrastructure and added that there is “no indication” that Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities or conduct targeting killings. The officials emphasized that Israel has not finalized “how and when to act,” however. An Israeli journalist separately reported on October 12 that Israel will delay its retaliatory attack until a US Army THAAD anti-missile battery arrives in Israel. These reports come as Iranian officials have been conducting “urgent diplomacy” with Middle Eastern countries to try to reduce the scale of Israel’s retaliation. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and Oman on October 9, 10, and 13, respectively. Unspecified sources told CNN that the Iranian regime is “extremely nervous” about the Israeli retaliation and is “uncertain” that the United States can convince Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran and its Axis of Resistance are likely trying to compel the United States to pressure Israel into a less-costly retaliatory strike by threatening to start an “energy war.”

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar negotiated with Iran over financial support for a larger-scale attack on Israel in 2021, underscoring the coordination between Hamas and the wider Axis of Resistance before the October 7 attacks. The Washington Post reported that Sinwar requested funding and military support from numerous senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, in order to ”destroy Israel completely in two years.” Iran reportedly agreed to allocate $10 million to the al Qassem Brigades, and several weeks later, Sinwar requested an additional $500 million to be allocated in monthly dividends over two years. Iran’s financial support of Hamas and the al Qassem Brigades has been well-established and Western officials have previously estimated that Iran provides Hamas with around $100 million in annual funding for Hamas’ military activities. This funding was instrumental for Hamas to be able to marshal the capabilities required to carry out the October 7 attacks. Sinwar's direct coordination and communication with senior Iranian officials, along with meetings between Hamas and Iranian officials in July 2023, underscore that Iran had strategic foreknowledge of the October 7 attacks. It remains unclear if Iran had tactical knowledge of the attack’s exact timing.

An unspecified IDF division began a new ground operation near Aita al Shaab and Ramyeh in southern Lebanon on October 13. An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported the IDF Air Force and artillery conducted a ”massive” bombardment before Israeli forces began ground maneuvers. Hezbollah targeted Israeli forces with improvised explosive devices, small arms, rockets, anti-tank guided missiles, and mortars in Aita al Shaab and Ramyeh.

Israeli forces entered a UNIFIL position in Ramyeh, southern Lebanon, after sustaining injuries in a Hezbollah attack close to the UNIFIL position on October 13. The IDF reported that Hezbollah targeted Israeli forces with “a massive anti-tank missile” during an operation in an unspecified area of southern Lebanon, injuring several soldiers. Israeli media reported that over 25 Israeli soldiers were injured in combat in southern Lebanon on October 13. This casualty count is high for Israeli operations. The IDF reported that Israeli forces had to come within a few meters of a UNIFIL position to evacuate the wounded soldiers. The IDF said that it was in constant contact with UNIFIL forces during the maneuver. UNIFIL stated two Israeli tanks destroyed ”the main gate and forcibly entered” the UNIFIL position in Ramyeh on October 13. UNIFIL also reported Israeli munition emissions caused skin irritation and gastrointestinal reactions to 15 peacekeepers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appealed to the UN Secretary General to remove UNIFIL forces from combat areas in southern Lebanon on October 13. Netanyahu accused Hezbollah of using UNIFIL sites and personnel as “human shields” and ”hostages.”

Hezbollah conducted a drone attack targeting an IDF training camp in Binyamina, south of Haifa, and injured at least 67 Israelis on October 13. Hezbollah said it launched multiple drones targeting a training camp for the IDF 1st Infantry Brigade. Israeli Army Radio reported that Hezbollah launched two or three drones in the attack and the IDF Navy intercepted one of the drones over Israeli territorial waters. The drone that impacted in Binyamina reportedly did not trigger any warnings or register on Israeli detection systems. Israeli media reported that the drones were fired at the same time as a barrage of rockets from Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed a rocket attack targeting an IDF base in the Golan Heights shortly after the drone impacted Binyamin. The Home Front Command loosened restrictions over the targeted area prior to the attack. Israeli medics said that the attack wounded over 67 people. Hezbollah said it conducted the drone attack in response to two IDF airstrikes on Basta and al Nuwairi neighborhoods in central Beirut on October 10. The IDF reportedly targeted senior Hezbollah official and Jihad Council member Wafiq Safa in one of the October 10 strikes.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli Retaliation Against Iran: The United States deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system and US military personnel to operate the system to Israel on October 13 to bolster Israeli air defenses following the April 13 and October 1 Iranian attacks on Israel. US officials told NBC on October 12 that they believe Israel has “narrowed down” its targets for a retaliatory attack on Iran.

2. Hamas: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar negotiated with Iran over financial support for a larger-scale attack on Israel in 2021, underscoring the coordination between Hamas and the wider Axis of Resistance before the October 7 attacks.

3. Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: An unspecified IDF division began a new ground operation near Aita al Shaab and Ramyeh in southern Lebanon on October 13. Israeli forces entered a UNIFIL position in Ramyeh, southern Lebanon, after sustaining injuries in a Hezbollah attack close to the UNIFIL position on October 13. The IDF reported that Israeli forces had to come within a few meters of a UNIFIL position to evacuate the wounded soldiers.

4. Hezbollah Attacks into Israel: Hezbollah conducted a drone attack targeting an IDF training camp in Binyamina, south of Haifa, and injured at least 67 Israelis on October 13.

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The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War will provide regular updates, including daily updates, as the crisis warrants.