BROOKINGS
Commentary
Where does the presidential election stand today?
William A. Galston
October 8, 2024
Despite everything that has happened in recent weeks, the race has been frozen in place since Labor Day.
As of now, Harris’ lead over Trump is in line with Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 but about two points below Biden’s winning margin in 2020.
The underlying dynamics of the race do not suggest that either campaign is about to break out of the current stalemate.
Adjacent Trump and Harris signs on U.S. 12 in Coldwater. Trump signs remained up throughout the county since the 2020 vote. USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect
6 min read
Of all the ways that the 2024 presidential election has been notable, the most remarkable is this: Kamala Harris scored most of her gains in the six weeks after President Biden announced that he would not run for a second term. Despite everything that has happened in recent weeks, the race has been frozen in place since Labor Day.
Between September 5 and October 7, Kamala Harris’ lead over Donald Trump in the national popular vote fell by just 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and rose by just 0.4 points in the RealClearPolitics average.1 As of now, Harris’ lead over Trump is in line with Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 but about two points below Biden’s winning margin in 2020.
During this period, the margin between the candidates has varied by one point or more in only two of the seven swing states. Trump moved up by about 1.5 points in Georgia and about one point in Wisconsin. Pennsylvania was a dead heat a month ago and remains the same today. Neither candidate is close to a secure majority in the Electoral College, and it remains the case, as it has been since the beginning of the race, that neither candidate is likely to reach 270 electoral votes without carrying Pennsylvania.
The underlying dynamics of the race do not suggest that either campaign is about to break out of the current stalemate. One recent survey found that 65% of both Harris and Trump supporters are paying “a lot” of attention to the contest and that 90% of both Harris and Trump supporters say that they “definitely” will vote. Harris enjoys the backing of 93% of Democrats; Trump, 91% of Republicans. Ninety-seven percent of Harris voters and 95% of Trump voters say that their minds are made up and that there’s no chance they will shift their support.
There is an interesting asymmetry between the candidates, however. When asked whether they would “consider” voting for Harris, 53% answered in the affirmative, compared to 49% when asked about Trump. This supports the widespread belief that his ceiling is significantly lower than hers. The question is how close will Harris get to maximizing her support. If she reaches 51% of the popular vote and stays there, she will almost certainly win the race. Anything less means trouble for her in the Electoral College. Conversely, if Trump hits his ceiling of 49%, he will almost certainly win in the Electoral College, while 47% would mean a rerun of 2020.
Support for independent and third-party candidates, which was high when Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, has dwindled since Harris replaced him and seems unlikely to significantly exceed its roughly two-point share of the national popular vote. But even two points could be crucial: If Trump gets to 48% of the popular vote, Harris would be left with 50%—and the same two-point margin over Trump that Hillary Clinton had in 2016.
Many observers believe that Trump will do significantly better among Black and Hispanic voters than he did four years ago. The evidence is equivocal; it suggests that he will top the eight percent of the Black vote that he received in 2020 but will be hard-pressed do much better than the 38% of the Hispanic vote that he got. He may well do better among non-white men, but this gain could be counterbalanced by Harris’ gains among non-white women, especially those who rate abortion among their top issues.
Another widespread belief is that the 2024 race will witness an unprecedented gender gap. But the evidence is anything but clear. Some surveys support this hypothesis while others show little change from 2020, when Biden prevailed among women by double digits while trailing Trump among men by single digits.2 One thing is clear: If women are more mobilized than men on November 5, Harris’ chances of winning go way up; if the reverse, Trump’s chances do.
Taking all these data into account, two conclusions seem warranted. First: Taken together, undecided voters and voters who may change their minds now constitute a very small share of the electorate, which means that the outcome of the race will hinge much more on mobilization than persuasion. During the next four weeks, Americans can expect an outpouring of advertisements—and speeches by candidates and their surrogates—designed to energize the party faithful and get them to the polls. This probably means a tilt toward negative messages that play on fears of what will happen if the other side prevails. The ground game, where Democrats appear to hold the advantage, can make a difference—but more so if rank and file party members are already enthusiastic about voting when someone knocks on their door.
Second: If the torrent of events, at home and abroad, since Labor Day hasn’t moved the race decisively, it’s unlikely that anything between now and November 5 will either. It’s hard to imagine what could change impressions of Donald Trump for good or ill. The odds of a blockbuster revelation about Kamala Harris, who is less well known to the public, are higher. Still, Harris has been her party’s nominee for two and one-half months, subject to intense scrutiny. The press and Trump’s opposition researchers have been digging hard for revelations, without coming up with anything that has changed the dynamics of the race.
Expect four weeks of ferocious trench warfare along a static front in a presidential contest that offers a starker choice between candidates—and the future course of the country—than most Americans have ever experienced.
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