Posted on October 14, 2024 by Ali Tuygan
October 14, 2024
The November 5, US presidential election is only three weeks away. On January 20, 2025, the new US president will take office. Thus there will be a six-week period of transition. Then the new president will form his government and get a closer look at the challenges ahead. In brief, the new US administration’s fully taking the reins will take time.
Unfortunately for Washington, on top of the uncertainty created by the presidential campaign, came Hurricane Helene, the deadliest hurricane to strike Tennessee, Georgia, and North Carolina. Two weeks later, Hurricane Milton devastated Florida.
In the meantime, the US remains engaged in two wars, one in Ukraine and the other in the Middle East. Formalities of international law aside, Washington is fully at war with Russia in Ukraine. The level of US engagement in the wars in Gaza and Lebanon is somewhat different, but that too is changing.
Yesterday, the Pentagon announced that at the direction of the President, Secretary Austin authorized the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (to help bolster Israel’s air defenses following Iran’s unprecedented attacks against Israel on April 13 and again on October 1. This action, said the Pentagon, underscores the US’s ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel.[i]
In my last post, I said that the risks of Lebanon turning into a second Gaza would be growing if Israeli air strikes were to continue at this pace. On October 8, Prime Minister Netanyahu urged the Lebanese people to throw out Hezbollah and avoid the kind of destruction and suffering like in Gaza. The problem is that Lebanon is a barely governed country and there is no national force to “throw Hezbollah out” as he suggests. Any attempt to do so would be tantamount to another costly civil war with no end.
So far, Mr. Netanyahu has defined his final objective as “total victory” over Hamas and Hezbollah. And he appears determined to make the maximum of the next few weeks and months to continue attacks against the two groups regardless of the humanitarian cost. Perhaps at some point, he would claim victory. However, with the high loss of life and devastation caused by the IDF’s land operations and airstrikes in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to find ever, a valid interlocutor across the table. On the contrary, the enmity toward Israel among Hamas and Hezbollah has reached new heights. Moreover, international sympathy toward Israel is in steep decline, and some are already mentioning its growing isolation.
As the US remains in a state of political confusion with the polls pointing at an extremely close presidential race between the two contenders, and with the challenges it faces in effectively dealing with the devastation wreaked upon the southern states by the two hurricanes, what are America’s NATO allies and the EU doing to bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East? Not much, they are just watching and in lockstep with Washington voicing the “litany of concern”. Concern over the safety of UN peacekeepers, concern about health workers, concern about civilian lives, concern regarding the targeting of hospitals, concern over children’s hunger, concern over escalation, all to no avail.
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Only on October 5, President Macron called for a halt on arms deliveries to Israel for use in Gaza, adding that “Lebanon cannot become a new Gaza”, and “France is not delivering any” weapons to Israel.” As could be expected, Mr. Netanyahu immediately reacted with strong words. And who knows if weapons delivery was indeed stopped, or if this was due to a shortage in weapons supplies, or a delay related to some other complication?
In the early days of the Gaza war, some European countries emphasized the “two-state solution”. With the wars with Hamas and Hezbollah continuing with no end in sight, this is hardly mentioned anymore. Because the European countries know very well that such a solution is out of the question for Mr. Netanyahu, and probably for his successors as well. Both sides agreeing on the modalities of such a solution has always been a chimera and now with the war in Gaza, the increasing number of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and the increasing mutual hate between the parties create an even more complicated picture to start with.
Needless to add, the big question of the day is how Israel would react to Iran’s missile barrage. Strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities or the energy sector will no doubt make Israel’s international isolation a bigger problem for Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right government. This is probably why on October 11, the Department of State, in a dissuasive measure, imposed sanctions on six entities engaged in the Iranian petroleum trade and identified six vessels as blocked property.[ii] The deployment of a US THAAD battery to Israel could also be such a measure and a warning to Tehran.
As for the war in Ukraine, President Zelensky’s recent visit to the US, the White House readout of his meeting with President Biden said, “President Biden outlined his decision to surge U.S. security assistance to Ukraine, and President Zelenskyy presented his plan to achieve victory over Russia. The two leaders discussed the diplomatic, economic, and military aspects of President Zelenskyy’s plan and tasked their teams to engage in intensive consultations regarding next steps.”
Before Mr. Zelensky met with former president Trump, the latter had hailed his alliance with Zelensky – but added: “I also have a very good relationship – as you know – with President Putin.” In brief, the Ukrainian president must have left the US with growing concerns not only about the continuation of US political/military support against Russia, but his political future as well.
Moreover, Le Monde reported on October 11, that the welcome extended to Ukrainian refugees is beginning to give rise to tensions in countries where they were once welcomed warmly.
As the West is experiencing a leadership problem, what about the other major world powers? Russia is at war. And, China is happily watching the West getting bogged down in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East with occasional initiatives to promote peace. At present China is more interested in its trade wars with the West.
Thus, it appears that there would be little, if anything, to celebrate, as the world approaches the new year.
[i] https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3934493/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-maj-gen-pat-ryder-on-the-deployment-of-a/
[ii] https://www.state.gov/sanctioning-entities-that-have-traded-in-irans-petroleum/#:~:text=Today%2C%20the%20United%20States%20is,six%20vessels%20as%20blocked%20property.
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