5 hours ago -
Trump in the Oval Office. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
The agreement the U.S. and Iran are close to signing involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran's nuclear program, according to a U.S. official.
Why it matters: The deal would avoid an escalation of the war and decrease the pressure on the global oil supply. However, it's unclear whether it will lead to a lasting peace agreement that also addresses President Trump's nuclear demands.
State of play: Both Trump and the mediators have indicated the deal could be announced on Sunday, though it has not been finalized and could still fall apart.
- The U.S. official provided a detailed outline of the draft as it stands, much of which was verified by other sources close to the talks.
- Those details have not been confirmed by the Iranian side, though Tehran has also indicated a deal is getting close.
What's in the deal
Both sides would sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would last 60 days and could be extended by mutual consent.
- During the 60-day period, the Strait of Hormuz would be open with no tolls and Iran would agree to clear the mines it deployed in the strait to let ships pass freely.
- In exchange, the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil freely.
- The U.S. official acknowledged that would be a boon to Iran's economy, but said it would also give significant relief to the global oil market.
The U.S. official said the faster the Iranians clear the mines and let shipping resume, the faster the blockade will be lifted.
- The official said Trump's key principle in the agreement is "relief for performance."
- Iran wanted funds unfrozen immediately and permanent sanctions relief, but the U.S. side said that would only happen after tangible concessions were made, according to the official.
Nuclear issues still to be negotiated
The draft MOU includes commitments from Iran to never pursue nuclear weapons and to negotiate over a suspension of its uranium enrichment program and the removal of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the U.S. official said.
- According to two sources with knowledge, Iran gave the U.S. through the mediators verbal commitments about the scope of the concessions it's willing to make on suspending enrichment and giving up the nuclear material.
- The U.S. would agree to negotiate over lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian funds during the 60-day period — though those steps would only be implemented as part of a final agreement that is verifiably implemented.
- U.S. forces that were mobilized in recent months would stay in the region during the 60-day period and only withdraw if a final deal is reached.
The intrigue: The draft MOU also makes clear that the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon would end.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern about that condition during a phone call with Trump on Saturday, an Israeli official said. He also expressed concerns about other aspects of the deal, but made his case in a respectful and deferential way, a U.S. official said.
- The U.S. official said it would not be a "one-sided ceasefire" and if Hezbollah tried to rearm or instigate attacks, Israel would be allowed to take action to prevent it. "If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave."
- "Bibi has his domestic considerations, but Trump has the interests of the U.S. and the global economy to think about," the U.S. official said, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.
How it happened
President Trump sounded out several Arab and Muslim leaders about the deal in a conference call on Saturday, and all said they support it, three sources familiar with the call said.
- That included the UAE's hawkish president, Mohammed bin Zayed, according to the U.S. official. Also on the call were the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan, all of which have been involved in the mediation efforts.
- The Pakistanis have been the primary mediator, led by Field Marshal Asim Munir, who was in Tehran on Friday and Saturday in an effort to get the deal across the line.
- Trump has been wavering in recent days between pushing forward with the deal and launching a massive wave of strikes against Iran. As of Saturday evening, he was leaning toward a diplomatic solution.
What to watch: The White House hopes the final differences will be resolved in the coming hours and that a deal will be announced on Sunday, the U.S. official said.
- The official said it's possible the deal won't even last the full 60 days if the U.S. believes Iran is not serious about nuclear negotiations. On the other hand, the U.S. believes Iran's economic crunch provides an incentive to reach a full deal to remove sanctions and unfreeze its cash.
- "It will be interesting to see how far Iran will be truly willing to go, but if they are capable of and want to change their trajectory, this next phase will force them to make some critical decisions on what they want to be as a country," the U.S. official said.
- If Trump's demands regarding the Iranian nuclear program are met, the president is ready to go to great lengths to reset relations with Iran and give them the opportunity to pursue their full economic potential, which Trump thinks is "huge," his advisers say.
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