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Iran Update, May 27, 2026
Expansion of Iran’s Asserted Oversight in the Strait of Hormuz May 27, 2026
Key Takeaways:
Senior Iranian officials continue to frame Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic necessity and core element of Iranian deterrence against the United States and Israel.
Iranian officials continue to insist that Iran will “reopen" the strait to civilian shipping under “Iranian arrangements.” Any arrangement in which maritime traffic can only pass through Iran’s traffic separation scheme with Iranian approval contradicts the US demand for freedom of navigation, and such an arrangement would significantly undermine US interests and establish a dangerous precedent for the freedom of navigation in international waterways.
Conflicting reports about the draft US-Iran agreement, as well as public statements from both sides, highlight continued disagreements on other key issues between the United States and Iran. Iran’s proposed sequencing of concessions would require the United States to surrender key sources of leverage before negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program begin, which would significantly reduce US leverage in any future nuclear negotiations.
Iranian media outlet Nour News published an op-ed that emphasized the need for Iran to convert its recent “military victory” into broader political success, which reflects a belief within the regime that Iran emerged from the recent conflict in a position of strength. Iran’s maximalist and uncompromising negotiating positions reflect the Iranian regime’s effort to translate its perceived success in the war into long-term strategic and political gains.
An Israeli open-source intelligence analyst posted satellite imagery that shows Iranian reconstitution efforts at the Yazd Missile Base in Yazd Province since the start of the US-Iran ceasefire in April 2026. These reconstitution efforts corroborate CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran is exploiting the ceasefire period to reconstitute its military capabilities at the tactical and operational levels.
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Senior Iranian officials continue to frame Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic necessity and core element of Iranian deterrence against the United States and Israel. Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati described the strait on May 27 as Iran’s “ultimate leverage” and the “real guarantee” of a US-Iran agreement’s “survival.”[i] Velayati’s remarks may reflect the Iranian regime’s belief that Iran’s ability to threaten international shipping and energy markets would make the United States less willing to withdraw from any potential agreement or conduct further military operations against Iran. Velayati’s comments reflect the degree to which senior Iranian leaders are coalescing around the notion of Iranian control over the strait as a key pillar of leverage. His comments are also consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iran views control of the strait as essential to rebuilding deterrence against the United States and Israel after the degradation of Iran’s other deterrent capabilities, particularly Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities.[ii]
Iranian officials continue to insist that Iran will “reopen" the strait to civilian shipping under “Iranian arrangements,” which reflects the broader Iranian effort to institutionalize control over traffic through the waterway and directly contradicts the US demand for freedom of navigation.[iii] Iranian media circulated a reported draft US-Iran agreement in which Iran would “restore” shipping through the strait while continuing to manage maritime traffic jointly with Oman.[iv] The reported draft proposal also stipulates that military vessels would be barred from transiting through the strait. Iran has not explicitly barred military vessels from passing through the strait in past draft proposals, but Iranian officials and media have repeatedly publicly stated this restriction.[v] The United States rejected the draft proposal in Iranian media as a “complete fabrication,” but the circulation of the proposal in Iranian media nevertheless reflects Iran's continued effort to secure recognition of its sovereignty over the strait in any agreement with the United States.[vi] Iran has used naval mines and attacks on commercial vessels to force vessels to transit through Iran’s illegal and unrecognized traffic separation scheme in Iranian territorial waters, effectively forcing vessels to recognize Iran’s control of the strait.[vii] Iranian officials have cited the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to attempt to justify charging vessels a fee for transiting through Iranian territorial waters.[viii] These vessels are not only coerced into using Iran’s traffic separation scheme, but the fees that they pay to Iran are part of an Iranian protection racket in which vessels pay to avoid Iranian attacks.[ix] Any arrangement in which maritime traffic can only pass through Iran’s traffic separation scheme with Iranian approval contradicts the US demand for freedom of navigation, and such an arrangement would significantly undermine US interests and establish a dangerous precedent for the freedom of navigation in international waterways. US President Donald Trump emphasized on May 27 the importance of freedom of navigation through the strait and stated that “nobody is going to control” the strait.[x]
Conflicting reports about the draft US-Iran agreement, as well as public statements from both sides, highlight continued disagreements on other key issues between the United States and Iran. The Iranian media readout of the reported draft proposal stated that Iran would continue to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade and withdrawing military forces from Iran’s vicinity.[xi] The readout omitted any reference to Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, or frozen assets. Iranian officials have repeatedly demanded that the United States release half of Iran’s frozen assets immediately upon signing an agreement and release the remainder within 60 days, however.[xii] The Associated Press, citing two regional officials, contrastingly reported that Iran agreed to “give up” its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile.[xiii] The officials added that negotiators would discuss how Iran would “give up” its HEU stockpile in a 60-day negotiation period following the signing of an initial agreement.[xiv] A US official reiterated to the Associated Press that the United States will not provide sanctions relief to Iran unless Iran relinquishes its stockpile.[xv] Iranian officials, however, continue to demand economic concessions in an initial agreement while postponing nuclear negotiations until a later phase.[xvi] Supreme National Security Council Deputy Secretary Ali Bagheri Kani reiterated Iran’s right to enrich uranium on May 27 and stated that negotiators are not currently discussing Iran’s HEU stockpile.[xvii] Bagheri Kani suggested that the United States and Iran would not be able to reach a preliminary agreement if both sides tried to reach an understanding on nuclear issues because “differences of opinion [are so big].”[xviii] Iran’s proposed sequencing of concessions would require the United States to surrender key sources of leverage before negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program begin, which would significantly reduce US leverage in any future nuclear negotiations.
Iranian media outlet Nour News published an op-ed that emphasized the need for Iran to convert its recent “military victory” into broader political success, which reflects a belief within the regime that Iran emerged from the recent conflict in a position of strength.[xix] Iran’s maximalist and uncompromising negotiating positions reflect the Iranian regime’s effort to translate its perceived success in the war into long-term strategic and political gains. The article argued that Iran must pursue “rapid diplomatic exploitation of military gains,” which supports CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iranian leaders believe they won the conflict and are therefore negotiating from a perceived position of strength.[xx] The op-ed called for clear and tangible objectives, including war compensation and guarantees against future attacks, both of which Iranian officials have previously raised as "preconditions" in negotiations.[xxi] The article also warned that renewed conflict will remain inevitable unless Iran transforms its perceived military success into “sustainable mechanisms.”[xxii] Iran likely views recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz as one such mechanism. It is unclear who currently controls Nour News or what the outlet’s current affiliation is. Nour News was previously affiliated with former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, but the combined force killed Shamkhani during the recent war.
An Israeli open-source intelligence analyst posted satellite imagery that shows Iranian reconstitution efforts at the Yazd Missile Base in Yazd Province since the start of the US-Iran ceasefire in April 2026.[xxiii] These reconstitution efforts corroborate CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran is exploiting the ceasefire period to reconstitute its military capabilities at the tactical and operational levels.[xxiv] The satellite imagery between April 5 and May 22 reveals Iranian efforts to reopen the base’s tunnel entrances, clear rubble and debris, build new roadways, and replace missiles and missile launchers.[xxv] The combined force struck the Yazd Missile Base at least five times during the conflict, including a strike on March 27 directly after Iranian forces launched missiles from the base.[xxvi] The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson stated on May 26 that Iran would use any unfrozen assets that Iran secures in a potential US-Iran agreement to further reconstitute and improve Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs.[xxvii] CTP-ISW previously assessed that granting Iran economic relief by unfreezing funds or removing sanctions would likely decrease Iranian military reconstitution timelines.[xxviii]
The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War will provide regular updates, including daily updates, as the crisis warrants.
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