CHATHAM HOUSE The EU can stop Russia controlling the Black Sea – here’s how Interview: Natalie Sabanadze tells Sara Seth about Putin’s efforts to dominate the sea’s trade and energy routes, and why Europe needs Turkey’s support to stop him. The World Today Published 15 September 2025 Updated 17 September 2025 —

 CHATHAM HOUSE

The EU can stop Russia controlling the Black Sea – here’s how

Interview: Natalie Sabanadze tells Sara Seth about Putin’s efforts to dominate the sea’s trade and energy routes, and why Europe needs Turkey’s support to stop him.

The World Today

Published 15 September 2025

Updated 17 September 2025 —

2 minute READ

Image — A French marine observes a Romanian Navy frigate during a military exercise in the Black Sea in March 2023. Since 2022, Russia has tried to control more of the sea’s critical coastline. Photo: Daniel Mihailescu /AFP via Getty Images.

Natalie Sabanadze

Senior Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Sara Seth

Communications Coordinator, Communications and Publishing

Your research paper is called ‘Understanding Russia’s Black Sea Strategy’. Why is the Black Sea important to Moscow?

The Black Sea is where Russia’s domestic priorities meet its external ambitions. Putin has a vision of Russia as a ‘civilization state’, which requires territorial expansion. This is a critical part of Russia’s post-Soviet, neo-imperial identity. It also has national security interests to limit NATO expansion and push back on western influence in the region.

While Russia knows it can’t dominate Turkey, it wants to ensure Ankara doesn’t become firmly part of the western camp.

Controlling the Black Sea is key to Russia’s ambitions because it would enable it to project influence into the Middle East and Africa and to dominate critical trade and energy routes.

If Odesa and other Ukrainian ports were to fall, Russia would control 30 per cent of the global grain trade. This could be used as an instrument to influence grain-dependent countries in the Global South.

What are Russia’s aims in the region?

Russia wants to control as much of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast as possible. Beyond that, it is increasing its influence in Romania and Bulgaria – other littoral states – through hybrid warfare, and expanding the naval base in Ochamchire, a coastal city in Georgia’s Russian-occupied Abkhazia region.

Turkey is seen as the gatekeeper of the Black Sea because it controls the entire southern coast, including access to the Bosphorus and Dardanelle Straits. Ankara closed the straits at the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, denying entry to NATO warships but also preventing Russia from reinforcing its battered fleet. While Russia knows it can’t dominate Turkey, it wants to ensure Ankara doesn’t become firmly part of the western camp.

How can security be improved in the Black Sea?

The EU and NATO must coordinate their approaches in the region. The EU needs to get better at deploying its soft power to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics, which exploit existing political vulnerabilities and grievances former Soviet countries have with the West. Strengthening the Bulgarian and Romanian navies should be a priority for NATO.

However, Turkey remains the main counterweight to Russia in the Black Sea. And although it hasn’t imposed sanctions on Russia, it wants Ukraine to remain a naval power and in control of its Black Sea coastline. It’s important that the EU and NATO build on this common interest with Turkey.

Topics

European defence North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Peacekeeping and intervention

Regions

Russia Ukraine Turkey