FP (Foreign Policy ) - This Week - October 27, 2025 - U.S. President Donald Trump is in Asia for a busy week of diplomacy,...

 

OCTOBER 27, 2025  |  VIEW IN BROWSER  |  SUBSCRIBE

Trump-branded playing cards for sale at the Trump golf course in Turnberry, Scotland, on July 28. Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump is in Asia for a busy week of diplomacy, starting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit. He will then visit Japan and South Korea, where the White House says that Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. The trade war between the United States and China has escalated in the past month, with China announcing new export controls on rare earths and Trump promising retaliatory 100 percent tariffs. The question is, which leader is incentivized to back down from his threats? In analogizing the power dynamic between the two leaders, FP contributors have reached for their playing cards. “At the tariff table, China’s hand is as strong as the United States’ hand,” Graham Allison writes, “and in the game of supply chain poker, China holds the high cards.”  Alasdair Phillips-Robins, a former advisor to the U.S. secretary of commerce, sees things a bit differently. “If Trump plays his cards right, Xi may find he has miscalculated,” Phillips-Robins argues, pointing to the global scope of Beijing’s new restrictions and the opportunity that presents for Trump to build an international coalition against them.  The problem for the Trump administration is that trade threats “will likely hurt the United States more than China,” FP’s James Palmer writes. Diversifying rare-earth supply chains—as Trump sought to do last week in striking a deal with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese—won’t take the price pressure off, either.  Heading into Thursday’s meeting, Palmer suggests that Trump heed the advice of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping: Hide your strength and bide your time. When it comes to U.S.-China competition, Xi is playing the long game.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

China Brief FP’s James Palmer, a longtime China correspondent, keeps subscribers up to date with all the news and analysis you need to keep track of the world’s second-biggest economy. Sign up with one click to have it delivered to your inbox on Tuesdays.

On Our Radar Takaichi’s debut. New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet with Trump in Tokyo on Tuesday. At her inaugural press conference last week, Takaichi stressed the need to deepen relations with the United States. With only a tenuous coalition backing her, the Japanese leader will be banking on a warm friendship with Trump and a common goal of limiting China’s manufacturing ambitions to ease trade tensions. Venezuela escalation. On Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford to Latin America. The U.S. Navy’s most technologically advanced aircraft carrier will take seven to 10 days to reach the Caribbean, where the Trump administration has been carrying out strikes against alleged “narcoterrorists.” Geoff Ramsey outlines three possible scenarios for the U.S. endgame in Venezuela. AI survival drive. A recent paper by artificial intelligence safety research company Palisade Research found that certain AI models appear resistant to being turned off and sometimes even sabotage shutdown mechanisms. As fears about the trajectory of Big AI grow, Bhaskar Chakravorti suggests that trust could be enhanced by deploying the technology in small-scale ways to improve the lives of millions of people in the developing world.

Poll: Do you expect a significant trade agreement to come out of the Trump-Xi summit at APEC?  Yes, they both want to make a deal.  No, the stalemate will continue.  It could go either way.   Last week’s results: How strong is China’s hand in trade negotiations with the United States?    Control over rare-earth minerals gives China the advantage. (34 percent)  China and the U.S. have about the same amount of leverage in these negotiations. (33 percent) The strength of the U.S. dollar gives Trump the edge. (33 percent)

FP COLLECTIONS The Scramble for Critical Minerals New from FP! Our third collection, “The Scramble for Critical Minerals,” is all about rare-earth minerals: from China’s control of the industry to the Trump administration’s plan for a bigger stake in the global market. It’s our editors’ must-reads on the topic, ready to download as a PDF and read at your leisure. Subscribe today to unlock the collection. READ THE COLLECTION

FP Live Is the AI Boom a Bubble? On Demand There is little doubt that the U.S. economy is benefiting from an AI-related boom. Since the launch of ChatGPT three years ago, seven U.S. technology companies have been responsible for more than half of stock market growth. Forty percent of U.S. GDP growth this year can be attributed to investments in AI. But a growing number of economists worry that the United States’ AI moment could be a bubble. Jared Bernstein is one such skeptic. The former chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers joined FP Live to explain his worries about the AI ecosystem and discuss how that might be masking other problems in the U.S. economy. Watch on demand. Trump’s New Expansionism On Demand Can history explain the inconsistencies in Trump’s foreign policy? According to the historian Greg Grandin, Trump may be seeking inspiration from the United States’ founders, who expanded the country’s frontiers. Grandin, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The End of the Myth: From the Frontier to the Border Wall in the Mind of America, joined FP Live to discuss Trump’s imperialist tendencies and how they change Washington’s relations with its partners and neighbors. Watch on demand, or read the edited transcript. What’s Next for the Palestinians? On Demand on Oct. 7 | 9 a.m. EDT Amid the fragile Israel-Hamas cease-fire and the joyful return of prisoners and hostages, one question looms large: What’s next for the Palestinians? How will they rebuild? Who will govern? FP’s Ravi Agrawal had a wide-ranging discussion with Palestinian Canadian lawyer Diana Buttu, a former peace negotiator and former spokesperson for the Palestine Liberation Organization. They discussed the ongoing negotiations, the future of Palestinian statehood, and the role of international law. Watch on demand, or read the edited transcript.

Exercise Your Mind India announced on Tuesday that it was upgrading its existing “technical mission” in a country to an embassy. Which nation is getting its Indian Embassy back? Afghanistan Pakistan Sri Lanka Iran You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. Test your knowledge with more quiz questions.

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From Around FP Looking for spooky reads? Ahead of Halloween on Friday, dive into some of FP’s coverage of all things creepy and crawly. From the politics of Robert Eggers’s Nosferatu to Ukrainian horror video games and the creepy-cute soft power of Chinese Labubus, dive into our archival coverage. Artificial intelligence and energy: AI’s rapid growth is driving record electricity demand and challenging energy goals. In partnership with JCDREAM, FP Analytics produced a two-part series examining how the U.S. state of Washington is positioned to capitalize on the AI boom. The first brief examines how the state is balancing AI-driven power needs, economic opportunity, and sustainability. The second examines how AI is reshaping critical mineral markets and explores strategies for resilient, responsible, and equitable supply chains that are vital to Washington state and beyond. Read now. Reforming debt, development, and decision-making: High debt, declining aid, and stalled international institutions stymie development across the world. FP Analytics’ Global Governance Reimagined series, produced with support from the Ford Foundation, explores reforms and elevates insights from experts and community leaders driving equitable development and stronger global governance. Explore more.  Diving deeper on this year’s economics Nobel: Three people shared the Nobel Prize for economics this year—Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt—for their work researching how innovation and creative destruction drive economic growth. On FP’s hit economics podcast Ones and Tooze, Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi discuss their work. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Answer: A. India closed its embassy in Kabul after the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Last week’s upgrade came after Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi concluded a visit to India, FP’s Michael Kugelman reports in South Asia Brief.

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