No Ceasefire in Sight for Ukraine
Posted on October 24, 2025 by Ali Tuygan
October 24, 2025
Before the Alaska summit of Presidents Putin and Trump on August 15, 2025, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov predicted that the meeting would last at least six to seven hours, adding that Moscow expected a “productive” meeting. The meeting lasted only three hours and did not result in a ceasefire, the West’s top priority. Nonetheless, the joint press conference was held as planned, no questions were taken, and Mr. Trump said very little beyond mentioning that it was an extremely productive meeting. Mr. Putin, as usual, reiterated that the “root causes” of the Ukraine conflict need to be eliminated before a full peace deal can be reached.
During the following two days, the Trump White House, through public messages, set the agenda of the August 18 summit with President Zelensky and a host of European leaders. These were,
• Acceptance of the annexation of Crimea by Russia.
• Strong security guarantees for Ukraine, but no membership in NATO.
• Territorial swaps, which essentially meant “ceding territory” to Russia.
The Washington meeting of leaders made it clear once again that the question of “territorial swaps” was the principal obstacle to achieving peace, and Kyiv was unlikely to receive full support from the West on this issue.[i]
After the Alaska and Washington summits, President Trump focused on the war in Gaza. Once his 20-point plan was accepted by both Hamas and Israel, he traveled to Tel Aviv and Sharm el-Sheikh. And then, fully satisfied with the Gaza ceasefire, he switched his attention to the war in Ukraine.
Toward the end of every year, President Putin addresses the global audience on Russia’s foreign and security policy at the Valdai Discussion Club. This year, on October 2, approximately ten days before Mr. Trump traveled to the Middle East, he focused on the emergence of a multipolar, polycentric world. He argued that a new international order is already taking shape, and it differs from previous eras because it is more democratic, inclusive, and reflective of diverse cultural and civilizational identities, thus enabling many countries to influence the regional and global processes.[ii]
He emphasized that efforts to establish global dominance and impose an international hierarchy with Western nations at the forefront have failed. He pointed to the rise of new international organizations, such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as various regional alliances, as proof of multipolarity in action.
Mr. Putin portrayed Russia as a key player and emphasized that global stability cannot be achieved without Russia, not just economically or strategically, but also culturally and logistically.
He accused those trying stubbornly to achieve their goal, the “strategic defeat” of Russia. Underlining yet again the negative impact of NATO expansion on European security, he said that the ruling elites of Europe are whipping up hysteria and claiming that war with the Russians is almost at the doorstep.
He said that across virtually the entire line of contact in Ukraine, Russian forces are advancing with confidence. He emphasized that Russia faces not only Ukraine but the “collective might of NATO,” with Western personnel directly involved in the conflict.
Regarding the US, he distinguished between the Biden and Trump administrations, describing the latter as blunt but rational, while characterizing Trump as a direct and attentive interlocutor. He pointed out that President Trump once said that if he had been in office back then, the Ukraine conflict could have been avoided, adding that he agreed with him.
His remarks about President Trump were complimentary.
On October 16, following a call with President Putin, which lasted almost as long as the Alaska summit, Mr. Trump announced that he and the Russian leader had agreed to meet in Hungary in the coming weeks to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.
Mr. Ushakov, aide to the Russian President, made a more cautious comment about the possibility of a second summit. He stated that Russian and American representatives would immediately start preparing for the summit, which could potentially take place in Budapest.
It seemed that the reference to “preparations” was referring to substance rather than organizational details. Some days later, following a “preparatory call” between Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Rubio, the meeting was canceled. This is what Mr. Lavrov said in response to a question on Tuesday:
“The key issue, however, remains not the place or the timing, but how we advance on the substantive tasks agreed upon – those which garnered broad consensus in Anchorage… I wish to officially confirm that Russia has not altered its positions from the understandings achieved during the extensive negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska.
“These understandings are grounded in the agreements reached at the time, which President Trump succinctly summarized when he stated that what is needed is a long-term, sustainable peace – not an immediate ceasefire that would lead nowhere. We remain fully committed to this formula, as I reiterated yesterday in my conversation with Secretary Rubio.”[iii]
He added that stopping now would mean “ignoring the root causes” of the conflict. He directed strong criticism at European leaders.
February 24, 2026, will mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the time, President Putin must have thought that Russian forces would sweep over Ukraine to victory within weeks, if not days. This did not happen. Today, the two sides are engaged in a war of attrition, which gives Russia the edge. Mr. Putin wants Ukraine and the West to recognize the annexation in 2023 of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts in their entirety. The problem is that Russia has not yet achieved total military control over these four oblasts. In other words, Russia wants Kyiv to give up territories beyond the current battle lines. And that puts the Ukrainian leadership in a bind. While a war with no end in sight certainly puts President Putin under domestic and international pressure, such pressure is a bigger problem for Kyiv.
Furthermore, whether President Putin would readily agree to become Mr. Trump’s ninth peace project alongside Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand, Cambodia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Serbia, Kosovo, Hamas, and Israel is a question. His remarks at the Valdai Club, where he emphasized Russia as a key player essential for global stability, suggest that this is unlikely.
The Russian side consistently refers to the “root causes” of the Ukraine conflict, in particular, NATO’s expansion. Since history cannot be reversed, Mr. Putin might prefer to impose his own peace terms on Ukraine rather than become a party to a mediated one, because a Trump-brokered deal will not allow him to claim victory.
On Wednesday, Washington imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies and called on Moscow to agree to an immediate ceasefire. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be in sight. Nonetheless, President Trump, while imposing sanctions, will not give up trying.
The European Union already has a long list of sanctions against Russia. Yesterday, however, it failed to reach a consensus on a new plan to use Russia’s frozen assets to support Ukraine. Such a move could take the EU-Russia relations to new depths.
[i] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2025/08/19/defining-days-for-ukraine-and-russia-west-relations/#more-2799
[ii] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78134
[iii] https://mid.ru/en/press_service/video/view/2054623/
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