UNHERD
Turkey and Israel are now the Middle East’s powerbrokers
By Patrick Hess
Western influence in the region will now be moderated by Netanyahu and Erdoğan. Credit: Getty
Bashar al-AssadBenjamin NetanyahuIsraelKurdspalestineRecep Tayyip ErdoganrowSyriaTurkeyWar
December 17, 2024 - 2:30pm
“Reshaped” seems to be the current word of choice for describing the Middle East. This may be a slight overstatement, as much of the region is as it was a year ago. But it is undoubtedly true that with Hamas all but decimated, Hezbollah irreparably crippled, and Bashar al-Assad gone, the region has witnessed a level of change not seen since the Arab Spring.
The two main beneficiaries of this Great Reshaping are Israel and Turkey. Israel has proved its superior military and intelligence capabilities, occupying a small buffer zone in Syria and establishing military dominance in Gaza. What’s more, it has intelligence-enabled influence and freedom to operate in both Lebanon and much of Syria — not bad for a country of fewer than 10 million people.
Turkey, meanwhile, has established Syria as its de-facto sphere of influence. The groups which it supported during the Syrian civil war swept through to Damascus earlier this month and now control most of the country. This puts Ankara in a strong position to wrest the title of protector of Sunni Islam from Saudi Arabia. While the petrostate could not even suppress an Iran-funded uprising on its border in Yemen, Turkey has successfully helped Syria’s Sunni majority overthrow Iran’s Shi’ite-dominated client state.
Western influence in the region will now need to be mediated much more closely through these two powers. The US will want to maintain counter-terrorism operations and surveillance in the Middle East, and above all contain a weakened Iran. However, US military resources necessary for these projects may soon be needed more urgently in the Indo-Pacific. There are already signs of partial American withdrawal: earlier this year, the Biden administration announced a deal with the Iraqi government to wind down its military presence in the country. Donald Trump has also signalled his intention to withdraw the remaining 900 US troops from northeastern Syria.
With a reduced footprint in the region, the containment of Iran may need to be largely outsourced to Israel. But if it is taking all of the risks for this objective, Israel may want more than just military aid in return. Acquiescence to annexation of the West Bank comes to mind. Aluf Benn, editor of the Left-wing Israeli newspaper Haaretz, wrote in Foreign Affairs in October that the Netanyahu “coalition’s stated goal is to create a Jewish state from the river to the sea, extending limited if necessary but preferably no political rights to non-Jewish subjects, even those who hold Israeli citizenship”.
Europe also desperately needs gas to replace Russian imports. A natural gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey, running through Syria, and which was reportedly blocked by Assad in 2009 at the request of Russia, could be back on the table under the new regime. This would give European markets access to Qatari gas. Europe will also want Turkey to double down on its commitments to Nato in the context of uncertain US security guarantees, while America will need Turkish cooperation to keep a lid on resurgent jihadism in the region.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is a shrewd negotiator, and will demand concessions in return for cooperation on these fronts. He is obsessed with the “Kurdish issue”; now he holds the cards, he will want freedom to operate against the People’s Protection Units (YPG) outfit in northeastern Syria and put an end to the Kurds’ troublesome ambitions of statehood. The YPG spearheads the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, and is considered by Turkey to be part of the PKK, a proscribed terrorist organisation which has fought against the Turkish state for decades. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler recently told a press conference that “in the new period, the PKK/YPG terrorist organisation in Syria will be eliminated sooner or later.”
Given the transactionalist foreign policy of the incoming US president, and European desperation in light of the Russian threat, the odds are in favour of these two regional stakeholders getting more or less what they want. That is, Western acquiescence to the subjugation of their respective enemies, and the conquest of their territories. So cheer for the Syrians, curse the Iranians, but spare a thought for the Kurds and the Palestinians — peoples likely condemned, for now, to statelessness.
Patrick Hess is a London-based writer who covers politics, culture and international relations.
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