TIME - Humiliated Abroad, Iran Is Also Enfeebled at Home - By Kay Armin Serjoie December 16, 2024 3:34 PM EST

TIME

Humiliated Abroad, Iran Is Also Enfeebled at Home

6 minute read

Portraits of slain "Axis of Resistance" stalwarts on a building in Tabriz, Iran on Oct. 17, 2024. From right, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in Iraq; Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in Lebanon; and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, killed in Tehran.Morteza Nikoubazl—NurPhoto/Getty Images

Ideas

By Kay Armin Serjoie  December 16, 2024 3:34 PM EST

Kay Armin Serjoie is an Iranian journalist who has reported from Tehran for TIME, AFP and the Washington Post. He is now based in Europe.

Every dramatic development in the Middle East this year has left Iran weaker. In 2024, the Islamic Republic lost in Gaza, in Lebanon, and, most spectacularly, in the Syrian Arab Republic, the linchpin of the “Shiite Crescent” collapsing so quickly this month that Tehran had to scramble to evacuate its officers of the Revolutionary Guards’ Qods Force. In a stroke, the demise of the Assad regime halved the number of states that Iran counts as an ally, leaving only Venezuela, a nation emptying itself of its people. The Axis of Resistance is down to rump militias in Iraq and the Houthi tribe of Yemen, the poorest country in the Middle East.

Inside Iran, though, things may be even worse. The economy is at its lowest point since the 1979 Revolution that brought the theocracy to power. The ministry of social welfare last year announced that 57 percent of Iranians are experiencing some level of malnourishment. Thirty percent live below the poverty line. The Iranian rial has fallen 46 percent in the past year, and is officially the world’s least valuable currency, worth less than the Sierra Leonean Leone or the Laotian Kip. As ordinary Iranians watch their savings vaporize on the pages of bank statements, a deeply unsettled regime has decided this is a good time to threaten them.

“If anyone inside Iran speaks in a way that translates to frightening people, this is a crime and must be prosecuted,” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday. It was his first remarks since the fall of the Assads, who when they fled to Moscow left behind a debt to Tehran of $30 billion and thousands of lives. Yet what concerned the ayatollah–understandably enough–was the stability of his own regime.

The devaluation of the Iranian rial means the heavily subsidized petrol prices, now ranging from the equivalent of 7.5 to 15 U.S. cents per gallon, have become untenable. Plans are being drawn up to increase the price in the new year. The last time that happened, in 2019, the country was plunged into nationwide protests that became known as Bloody November. The government shut down the internet while its forces opened fire, making a solid death count difficult to determine, but Amnesty International put the minimum number at 304.

Looking at the books, the regime may feel it has no choice. After decades of US sanctions that have retarded the development of its petroleum sector, Iran—home to the second largest natural gas reserves in the world—is facing gas shortages that, in turn, are forcing the curtailment of electricity production. A country that was until a few years ago exporting electricity to neighboring countries has now been forced to resort to planned blackouts for its own populace.

The regime is also intent on testing the public in other ways. The parliament, which consists mostly of hardline extremists, has ratified a draconian bill on hijab, the headscarf and robes the Islamic Republic imposes on all women. Set to go into effect within weeks, the new law is the regime’s reaction to the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests ignited by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody in September, 2022 following her detention for not having an adequate hijab.

Read more: The Hidden Role Ordinary Iranians Have Played in the Protests

The protests occurred in more than 200 cities and towns, lasted months and presented the gravest internal threat to the regime since the 1980s. Iranian security forces also responded to these protests with brutal force, killing more than 500 people, according to human rights groups. As many as a thousand more were dealt lifelong injuries such as blinding; tens of thousands were arrested. Should the new hijab bill be implemented, the Islamic Republic might face a repeat of the uprising that nearly brought about its undoing.

The state apparatus already appears vulnerable. The Islamic Republic has long touted its ability to provide “security” in the world’s most volatile region. Yet on the day of the inauguration of its current president in July, a guest of the state, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by an explosive that (presumably Israeli) saboteurs had secreted in a government guest house in one of the most heavily fortified compounds in Tehran. The new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, had been elected after his hardline predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, perished in a mysterious helicopter crash in May. The state has yet to offer an explanation either as to why his chopper crashed on a routine flight or why it took nearly a day to locate the crash site.

Meanwhile, Israel has struck Iran repeatedly this year through conventional military means, targeting crucial missile production facilities and anti-aircraft defenses—clearly prevailing in the tit-for-tat exchange of unprecedented direct attacks on each nation’s soil. Iran’s missile assaults, by contrast, caused no substantial damage or casualties. Israel’s latest attack, in October, has gone unanswered, causing some stalwart defenders of the regime to publicly question it for the first time, and speak of losing faith with it.

Khamenei, who has held the reins of power since 1989, is now 85 years old, and rumored to be severely ill. A leaked voice file from the head of his medical team giving him only until this winter to live and beyond that, "hoping for the kindness of God and the prayers of the people" was vigorously denied as fake. But Khamenei's appearance has visibly deteriorated in recent years. Once a strong speaker, his voice is now raspy, and his sentences are short. His speech Wednesday was not broadcast live on state TV as usual.

Screenshot from Telegram

From a telegram channel called Bisimchi media (wireless operator media, context is from the wireless operators of the Iran Iraq war who were prone to getting killed quickly by snipers) In the right lower message a line at the end says: it's a month since they've attacked your country and you haven't answered, if this isn't passivity than what is? The message on the left is the attempt of the main admin to explain away the message as a copy past mistake and reaffirm their undying love and faith in the leaderCourtesy the author; Screenshot from Telegram

Whatever his health, Khamenei's age alone has made succession a major preoccupation. This would be the second time the Islamic Republic has gone through a succession. The last was in 1989, when the Iranian economy was in a much better shape and it's citizens' less antagonized. What's more, there was no hint of the disillusionment among regime stalwarts that we see today. For instance, it was the audible grumbling about the loss of Syria among Iranians that prompted the Supreme Leader’s warning about speech that “frightens people.” But large sections of Iran’s society clearly are no longer afraid to speak up.

Hours after the Leader's speech, the singer Parastoo Ahmadi livestreamed a concert on her YouTube account, from inside Iran. It was a first since the Islamic Revolution, which bans women singing for men. Despite this ban, Ahmadi sang in an evening gown, her hair flowing over her bare shoulders, to more than two million views so far. She was arrested on Saturday, then released pending trial.

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