UANI (United Against Nuclear IRAN) EYE ON IRAN 21 December 2024 TOP STORIES Syria’s Collapse And Israeli Attacks Leave Iran Exposed | The Washington Post

UANI (United Against Nuclear IRAN) EYE ON IRAN

21 December 2024 

TOP STORIES

Syria’s Collapse And Israeli Attacks Leave Iran Exposed | The Washington Post

A week of punishing Israeli airstrikes on Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad didn’t just set Syria’s own military back years, experts said, but also peeled away another layer of Iranian defenses in the region, leaving Tehran more exposed than it has been in decades. Iran’s growing vulnerability has generated alarm within the government, stirring fears that its steadily escalating conflict with Israel could soon enter a more dangerous phase. Hard-line supporters of the regime are talking more publicly, and more frequently, about adopting nuclear deterrence to thwart a possible Israeli attack. And among the country’s beleaguered opposition, there is new hope that the crumbling of Iranian power abroad could lead to a loosening of authoritarian rule at home.

Israel's Netanyahu Eyes Iran After Triumphs Over Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria | Reuters

2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his country's arch foe Iran. The veteran Israeli leader is set to cement his strategic goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions and capitalising on the dismantling of Tehran's allies -- Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Assad's collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah and the destruction of their military structure mark a succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu. Without Syria, the alliances Tehran has nurtured for decades have unraveled. As Iran's influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the dominant power in the region. Netanyahu is poised to zero in on Iran's nuclear ambitions and missile program, applying an unyielding focus to dismantling and neutralising these strategic threats to Israel. Iran, Middle East observers say, faces a stark choice: Either continue its nuclear enrichment program or scale back its atomic activities and agree to negotiations.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards Extend Control Over Tehran's Oil Exports, Sources Say | Reuters 

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have tightened their grip on the country's oil industry and control up to half the exports that generate most of Tehran's revenue and fund its proxies across the Middle East, according to Western officials, security sources and Iranian insiders. All aspects of the oil business have come under the growing influence of the Guards, from the shadow fleet of tankers that secretively ship sanctioned crude, to logistics and the front companies selling the oil, mostly to China, according to more than a dozen people interviewed by Reuters. The extent of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) control over oil exports has not previously been reported. Despite tough Western sanctions designed to choke Iran's energy industry, reimposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, Iran generates more than $50 billion a year in oil revenue, by far its largest source of foreign currency and its principal connection to the global economy.  

UANI IN THE NEWS

2024: A Year In The Middle East | Atlantic Council

[…] On January 3, Iran saw the deadliest terror attack on its soil since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, as a bombing in the city of Kerman killed nearly a hundred citizens. The attack was claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) shortly after the bombings. Iranian officials, however, were quick to shift the blame to Western countries, including the United States and Israel. Blaming Iran’s Western opponents for the terror attack was a clear conscious decision by Iran, writes Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). “It seeks to capitalize on the slaughter to score propaganda points against the US and Israeli governments at a time when both are under international criticism for the Gaza war.”

I Spoke To Khamenei’s Footsoldiers. He Is In Trouble. | UANI Director Of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi For The Jewish Chronicle

“We zealous youth will not forget cowardice of the decision makers [in Syria]”, a young radical from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Iranian regime’s paramilitary, tells me. Fault lines are emerging in the IRGC over the handling of Syria, which resulted in the collapse of Bashar al-Assad. The younger radicals are enraged at what they see as the “abandonment” of Syria. These divisions within the IRGC are causing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, major problems. Yet, the internal backlash inside the IRGC over the senior commanders’ handling of Syria has been overlooked in the West. I spent the final 72 hours of the Assad regime talking with the younger radical ranks of the IRGC. From these conversations and recent trends, it’s clear an internal crisis is looming in the IRGC. […] Kasra Aarabi is the director for IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).

Doubts Raised Over Bangladeshi Report On LPG Cargo Origins | Lloyd’s List

The Bangladeshi committee that investigated the origins of cargoes on board VLGCs Gaz GMS and Captain Nikolas wrongly determined they came from the UAE and Oman, an analysis shows… Lloyd’s List has analysed vessel tracking data, satellite imagery from Planet Labs and the EU’s space programme, and concluded that the cargoes on board Gaz GMS and Captain Nikolas likely did not come from the UAE and Sohar. The findings are backed by research from tanker trackers at US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, and data from commodities and analytics provider Vortexa… UANI’s research suggests Captain Nikolas loaded in Iran around September 13-15. Vortexa data also indicates the LPG was loaded in Iran.

Nine VLCCs Linked To Iran Trade Blacklisted By US Treasury | Tradewinds

The US has blacklisted nine VLCCs in its latest round of sanctions targeting the tanker fleet hauling Iranian crude. The Treasury said the vessels frequently used deceptive practices that posed dangers to the maritime industry while they hauled oil worth billions of dollars for the Iranian regime… Panama has committed to de-listing ships hit by US sanctions but has been accused by campaign group United Against Nuclear Iran of previously failing to adequately respond to its warnings about ships in the Iran trades. Bloomberg reported this week that the volume of Iranian oil stored on tankers at sea had reached its highest level since July because of the squeeze on Tehran’s exports.

Iran Closes Schools, Gov’t Buildings Amid Energy Crisis | i24 News 

Iran wastes billions propping up Assad's government in Syria, all the while Iranians suffer from ongoing economic crises and energy cuts 'At the end of the day, the preservation of the Islamic Republic is the most important variable for Ayatollah Khamenei,' @JasonMBrodsky says 

Iran’s Brutal Oppression Of Women Has Entered A Dark New Phase | INDEPENDENT 

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has dealt a devastating blow to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran’s clerical leadership has long been concerned that Assad’s collapse could trigger a domino effect and reach the streets of Tehran – with good reason. As the Iranian regime grapples with this psychological setback, there has been a boost in morale among the people. Both regionally and domestically, the regime is looking increasingly fragile. Yet despite (and perhaps even because of) this growing fragility, the Islamic Republic is doubling down on its persecution of domestic dissent, especially women’s rights activists. […] Jemima Shelley is a senior research analyst at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and former senior analyst at the Tony Blair Institute of Global Change (TBI).  

Israel Reportedly Prepares Significant Strike On Yemeni Houthi Rebels After US Hits Terror Command Site | All Israel News

Israel is preparing to launch significant strikes against the Houthi terror group in Yemen, according to sources cited in Israeli media, after the group’s last ballistic missile attack triggered sirens across large parts of central Israel on Monday. […] The strikes mark the first time that the U.S. hit a target in the center of the capital Sana'a. “This is an unusual target for the U.S. to strike in Yemen against the Houthis. Usually the U.S. strikes radar facilities, storage sites, and launchpads. A ‘key command-and-control facility’ is different this time,” stated Jason Brodsky, policy director for the United Against Nuclear Iran think tank. “The Pit in Sana'a is a command center for the Houthis and it focuses the organization's terrorist activities, from where they carry out attacks against ships and vessels in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden,” Dvori explained. 

Israel Reportedly Prepares Significant Strike On Yemeni Houthi Rebels After US Hits Terror Command Site | All Israel News

Israel is preparing to launch significant strikes against the Houthi terror group in Yemen, according to sources cited in Israeli media, after the group’s last ballistic missile attack triggered sirens across large parts of central Israel on Monday. The IDF later it said it shot down the ballistic missile, which the Houthis claimed was a hypersonic missile, outside the atmosphere with an Arrow-3 interceptor missile… “This is an unusual target for the U.S. to strike in Yemen against the Houthis. Usually the U.S. strikes radar facilities, storage sites, and launchpads. A ‘key command-and-control facility’ is different this time,” commented Jason Brodsky, Policy Director at the United Against Nuclear Iran think tank.

The Sanctions-Busters Funding Iran Bankers Are Fuelling Terror | UnHerd

Donald Trump isn’t yet back in the White House — but his Iranian policy is clear. Like he did in his first term, he’ll pursue a vigorous policy against Tehran, hampering its nuclear programme and backing its rivals across the Middle East… Yet while Republicans are sure to take the Iranian threat more seriously than their Democratic forebears, actually stopping the flow of illicit oil won’t be easy. “This involves more than just consumers,” says Norman Roule, a 35-year CIA veteran and now senior adviser to the campaigning think tank United Against a Nuclear Iran. “It requires clear and stringent standards to ensure international banks aren’t facilitating financial transfers associated with illegal oil sales. ”For that to happen, Roule adds, the US should immediately judge any transaction with Iran as dubious — even as Washington must also push other governments to take their responsibilities seriously. Maximum pressure, it seems, will involve a joint effort.

Ukrainian Intelligence Unveils Data On 238 Tankers Of Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’ | Freedom

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) has launched a new section on Russia’s “shadow fleet” on the War & Sanctions portal, unveiling data on the activities of 238 vessels that help Russia and Iran export sanctioned oil. That’s according to the intelligence agency’s press service, Ukrinform reports… Some vessels have been identified by Greenpeace as part of a shadow fleet that endangers ecosystems in the Baltic Sea by transporting Russian oil globally. Others, according to the American human rights group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), have been repurposed from carrying Iranian oil to now shipping Russian oil.

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM

UN Pushes For Iran Nuclear Deal Talks, Says 'Time Of The Essence' | Reuters 

A top U.N. official on Tuesday pushed world powers and Iran to urgently work to restore a 2015 deal that lifted sanctions on Tehran in return for restrictions on its nuclear program, warning that its "success or failure matters to all of us." Iran's deal with Britain, Germany, France, the United States, Russia and China is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The U.S. quit the agreement in 2018, during Donald Trump's first term as president, and Iran began moving away from its nuclear-related commitments under the deal. "Though diplomacy is the best option, the United States has also been clear a nuclear Iran can never be an option. We are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome," deputy U.S. Ambassador Robert Wood told the council.  

Iran Confirms Increase In IAEA Nuclear Inspections | Barron’s

Iran confirmed Saturday that it has allowed watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to increase the number of inspections it carries out into Tehran's nuclear programme, state media reported." We have increased capacity -- it is natural that the number of inspections should also increase," the official IRNA news agency quoted the country's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami as saying. "When we carry out nuclear activities, and where we deal with nuclear materials, changing the scale will naturally change the monitoring level," he added. Eslami's comments came after an IAEA report, seen by AFP on Friday, that Iran had agreed to increased monitoring. "Iran agreed to the agency's request to increase the frequency and intensity of the implementation of safeguards measures at Fordo enrichment plant" south of Tehran, the IAEA report said.

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS

Iran's Rial Hits A Record Low, Battered By Regional Tensions And An Energy Crisis | The Washington Post

The Iranian rial on Wednesday fell to its lowest level in history, losing more than 10% of value since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November and signaling new challenges for Tehran as it remains locked in the wars raging in the Middle East. The rial traded at 777,000 rials to the dollar, traders in Tehran said, down from 703,000 rials on the day Trump won. Iran’s Central Bank has in the past flooded the market with more hard currencies in an attempt to improve the rate. In an interview with state television Tuesday night, Central Bank Gov. Mohammad Reza Farzin said that the supply of foreign currency would increase and the exchange rate would be stabilized. He said that $220 million had been injected into the currency market.  

Iran Lawmakers To Summon Economy Minister Over Currency Woes | AFP 

Iranian lawmakers will summon the economy minister for questioning over a record slump of the local currency against the dollar, local media reported on Thursday. The Iranian rial was trading at around 770,000 against the US dollar and at roughly 800,000 to the Euro on Thursday, according to local media and the Bonbast website that monitors exchange rates. Iran's currency has never before traded at levels so low. The drop in Iran's currency has worsened since the December 8 fall of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, a longtime ally of Tehran. The rial had already been steadily falling, hovering near 710,000 against the greenback in the days before Islamist-led rebels toppled him after a lightning offensive. Lawmaker Abbas Goudarzi said the rial's depreciation has contributed to an increase in prices which "ultimately placed an economic pressure on (Iran's) population."  

TERRORISM & EXTREMISM

Mass Grave Unearthed At Iran-Backed Hezbollah Site Near Syrian Shrine | Newsweek 

A mass grave was discovered on Wednesday in Damascus' Sayyida Zeinab suburb, the Syrian Civil Defense group, known as the White Helmets, said. At least 21 corpses and incomplete human remains were found at a site previously used by Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias. It marks one of the most significant finds of its kind since Syria's 13-plus-year civil war ended on December 8 when a 10-day offensive by rebel forces toppled President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The discovery highlights the ongoing toll of Assad's rule, which displaced millions and left vast areas in ruins. The Sayyida Zeinab area, often targeted during the war, was a stronghold for Hezbollah and other militias allied with his regime. Iran and Hezbollah provided crucial support to Assad, bolstering his forces in exchange for strategic control over key regions.

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS

Iran Pauses The Process To Implement A New, Stricter Headscarf Law For Women, Official Says | Associated Pres

Iran has paused the process of implementing a new, stricter law on women’s mandatory headscarf, or hijab, an official said — a bill that many believe could have reignited the protests that engulfed the Islamic Republic after the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini. The controversial law, which was approved by the parliament in September 2023, will not be sent to the government as planned this week, according to one of the country’s vice presidents. The development effectively means that Iran has halted enacting the legislation. The law levies harsher punishments for women who refuse to wear the hijab and for businesses that serve them, penalties previously rejected by Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian as he tries to restart talks with the West over sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program. 

Iran ‘Bows To Pressure’ To Release Singer Who Defied Regime By Performing Solo Without A Hijab | The Telegraph

The Iranian regime released a young female singer who was arrested for a risque performance without the mandatory hijab. Parastoo Ahmadi, 27, was arrested on Saturday in the northern city of Sari, after live-streaming a ‘virtual concert’ wearing a dress that also exposed her shoulders. Her lawyer said Tehran had bowed to calls for her release, in a sign of the regime’s growing nervousness over protests. Milad Panahipour said his client’s arrest was carried without prior notification or judicial summons. He added that she was released at 3am local time on Sunday following widespread outrage over the news. The incident follows similar high-profile protests that have triggered a backlash in recent weeks, including a university student protesting in just her underwear at strict islamic dress codes. It also comes as Iran has been significantly weakened by Israel’s attacks on its proxies and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS

Two Charged In Connection With Iran-Backed Drone Strike That Killed 3 US Troops In The Middle East | Associated Press

Two men, including a dual Iranian American citizen, have been charged with conspiring to export sensitive technology to Iran that was used in a drone attack in Jordan that killed three American troops early this year and injured dozens of other service members, the Justice Department said Monday. The pair were arrested after FBI specialists who analyzed the drone traced its navigation system to an Iranian company operated by one of the defendants, who relied on parts and technology funneled into the country by his alleged co-conspirator, prosecutors said. “We often cite hypothetical risk when we talk about the dangers of American technology getting into dangerous hands,” U.S. Attorney Joshua Levy, the top federal prosecutor in Massachusetts, said at a news conference announcing the charges. “Unfortunately, in this situation, we are not speculating.”

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS

A Diminished Hezbollah Is Made Even Weaker By The Toppling Of Assad In Syria | The Associated Press

A severely hobbled Hezbollah was in no position to help defend former Syrian President Bashar Assad, a longtime ally, from the lightning-fast insurgency that toppled him. With Assad gone, the militant group based in Lebanon is even weaker. Hezbollah was dealt a major blow during 14 months of war with Israel. The toppling of Assad, who had strong ties to Iran, has now crippled its ability to bounce back by cutting off a vital weapons-smuggling route through Syria. Hezbollah officials are deeply concerned but defiant. “What is happening in Syria is a major, dangerous and new change, and to know why this happened needs evaluation,” Hassan Fadlallah, a Lebanese lawmaker who represents Hezbollah’s political wing, said during a speech at a funeral for militants killed by Israel. “Whatever is happening in Syria, despite its dangers, will not weaken us.”

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

Iran's President To Make Rare Visit To Egypt For D-8 Summit | Reuters

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will take part in a summit of big Muslim countries in Egypt on Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said, the first visit by an Iranian president to Egypt in more than a decade. Egypt is hosting the summit of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, which also includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkey. Relations between Egypt and Iran have generally been fraught in recent decades but the two countries have stepped up high-level diplomatic contacts since the eruption of the Gaza crisis last year as Egypt tried to play a mediating role. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi travelled to Egypt in October to discuss regional issues with Egyptian officials, while his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty travelled to Tehran earlier in July to attend Pezeshkian's inauguration.

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN

Iran Scrambles To Build Ties With Syrian Leaders As Regional Influence Wanes | The Guardian

The Iranian government is attempting to salvage some influence with Syria’s new leaders, as Tehran reels from its sudden loss of authority in Damascus after the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is already facing multiple domestic and international crises, including power cuts due to a lack of oil supplies, continued tensions over its nuclear programme and a row about a new law that will make wearing the hijab compulsory for women. But it is the sudden loss of influence in Syria after the fall of Assad to rebel groups that is exercising Iranian officials most. In the short term they want to salvage some influence with the rebels in Damascus. Iranian diplomats insist they were not wedded to Assad, and were disillusioned with his refusal to compromise.

Syrian Opposition ‘Set Iranian Project Back 40 Years,’ Ahmad Al-Sharaa Says | Al Arabiya News

Syrian opposition groups that toppled the al-Assad regime “set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years,” Ahmad al-Sharaa, head of the new government, said in an interview published Friday. Speaking to pan-Arab publication Asharq al-Awsat, the opposition leader, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, stressed that Syria would no longer be used to “attack or destabilize” any country in the Arab or Gulf region. “Syria had become a platform for Iran to control key Arab capitals, spread wars, and destabilize the Gulf with drugs like Captagon,” he said. “By removing Iranian militias and closing Syria to Iranian influence, we’ve served the region’s interests—achieving what diplomacy and external pressure could not, with minimal losses.”

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United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

 

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