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Dear Önder, Welcome to Monday! In today’s edition:
And don't miss our 2024 roundup of the most quotable moments on GZERO World! – The Daily crew  From Assad to UncertaintySyria’s new leadership claims it wants to prioritize stability and reconstruction over further conflict – but will that be possible? With Israel fortifying the Golan Heights, Turkey expanding its influence, and Russia retreating, we’re watching this week if Syria and its neighbours will manage to get along — and how allies and adversaries will react. No new confrontation – for now. In an interview given on Saturday to Syria TV, Ahmad al-Sharaa — formerly known by his nom de guerre “Abu Mohammed al-Golani” — the leader of the HTS, stated that despite Israel having “clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria”, the country’s war-weary condition “does not allow for new confrontations.” Instead, Al-Sharaa stated that HTS’ priorities are reconstruction and stability and called for diplomatic solutions to ensure Syria’s security. Israel is still wary. Despite al-Sharaa’s moderate tone, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz maintained that security threats to Israel have not diminished. Israeli forces remain present in the buffer zone inside Syria and continue to conduct strikes on military targets. On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to double the Israeli population of the Golan Heights as a defensive measure against the “new front” that had opened up in the wake of Assad’s ouster, but says his country has "no interest in a conflict with Syria." Iran steps out, Turkey steps in. Assad’s fall dealt a severe blow to Tehran’s influence in Syria, a vacuum Ankara is only too happy to fill. Turkey has now offered to provide military training to Syria's new administration if requested, and will maintain troops in several cities in northern Syria, where it has been conducting military operations since 2016. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Güler said his country’s priority remains the elimination of Kurdish militias, which enjoy US backing but are considered terrorists by Turkey. What about Russia? The other big loser in Syria is Moscow, which had heavily backed Assad’s regime for years, in exchange for strategic positions within the country including the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base. Recent satellite imagery has shown Russian forces packing up military equipment and preparing for transport. The Kremlin has confirmed that Moscow is in discussions with HTS about retaining its two bases, but has withdrawn troops from frontline positions. Will the United States fill the gap? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that Washington has been actively engaging with Syria's new leadership but gave no details on when or at what level. Blinken met over the weekend with regional leaders in Jordan to discuss Syria’s future as well as seek the return of Austin Tice, an American journalist detained a decade ago in Syria. Blinken also emphasized the importance of destroying chemical weapons and rejecting terrorism, warning that “This is a moment of vulnerability in which ISIS will seek to regroup.” Could US policy change under Trump? When Assad’s government fell, President-elect Donald Trump posted “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!" Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security adviser, told Fox News last week that Trump was elected with an overwhelming mandate to keep the United States out of regional wars, and that America's "core interests" remain ISIS, Israel and "our Gulf Arab allies". There are no indications that Trump or his team have reached out to HTS, but the President-elect has reportedly spoken with Netanyahu about Israel’s plans to expand settlements in the Golan Heights. K-Drama continues as Yoon defies summonsSouth Korea’s rogue President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached on Saturday and is now facing charges of insurrection – but will he show up for trial? Yoon failed to appear in court Sunday after receiving a summons from prosecutors investigating him and senior officials for abuse of authority and obstructing rights. Then, when investigators attempted to serve him a request for questioning regarding the insurrection charges on Monday, his office refused to accept it. The charges stem from Yoon’s shock invocation of martial law December 3 - a decree that was overturned a mere six hours later. Yoon’s powers have since been suspended until the constitutional court confirms the legality of his impeachment. What happens next? The court began deliberations on Monday, with a ruling expected within 180 days, but a decision could come sooner based on the impeachments of previous South Korean leaders. If Yoon is dismissed, a national election must be held within 60 days. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, seen as the frontrunner to replace Yoon, proposed a special council for policy cooperation between the government and parliament and called for a quick resolution “to minimize national confusion and the suffering of the people.” Based on this Saturday’s giant dance party in Seoul following the impeachment, however, it doesn’t seem that South Koreans are that upset. Thousands braved the bitter cold and took to the streets to celebrate, after a vote the previous weekend failed to garner enough support. Turkey offers to mediate in Sudanese civil warTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Sudanese Armed Forces Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan on Friday offering to help resolve the country’s civil war by mediating negotiations with the rebels and their alleged backers, the United Arab Emirates. The offer comes just days after Erdoğan negotiated an agreement to avoid conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over port access, as Turkey looms ever larger in the politics of the Horn of Africa. An end to the fighting is desperately needed. Nearly 15 million Sudanese have fled their homes, according to the International Organization for Migration, one of the worst refugee crises in modern history. Aid organizations struggle to reach major population centers due to intense fighting, leading to widespread hunger and disease. And in the western region of Darfur, Rapid Support Forces are accused of carrying out genocidal violence and mass rape against Black ethnic groups like the Masalit and Fur. US and Saudi-led negotiations produced a ceasefire in May of 2023, only for it to collapse within 24 hours. Since then, the violence has raged unchecked. SAF airstrikes have devastated the capital Khartoum, but they are unable to dislodge RSF infantry, allegedly supplied via UAE airlifts to neighboring Chad. Abu Dhabi denies any involvement.
Why is Turkey getting involved? For a shot at swaying the post-war order in its favor. Ankara and Abu Dhabi’s relations have been severely strained in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring, when they have found themselves backing opposing sides of crises in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Qatar, as well as diplomatic normalization with Israel. Finding a mediated end to the war reduces the risk that the Emirati-backed RSF comes out on top. Avoiding that outcome plays into Turkey’s broader strategy in northeast Africa, which it sees as a key source of future economic growth and political clout. Turkey spent the last decade actively encouraging investment and trade with Sudan and Ethiopia, and the military has provided major backing to Somalia in an effort to stabilize the strategically-placed country. A stable, Turkish-aligned Red Sea coast could present both a tempting market and a key check on regional rivals in the Middle East.
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 The Assad family no longer rules Syria. How did a brutally repressive regime rule with an iron fist for five decades only to collapse in two weeks? And after 14 years of bloody civil war, why was now the moment that a frozen conflict exploded into the global spotlight? The cost Syrians have already paid is greater than any nation could reasonably be expected to bear. But there’s no guarantee that the suffering will end just because the Assad regime has. To help make sense of these shocking past few weeks and the potential power vacuum to come is Kim Ghattas, a contributing editor at the Financial Times and author of Black Wave. “There was a decrepitude that installed itself within the regime's ranks and just a general exhaustion, life was not getting better for those who stood by the regime. And so I think there was a feeling that it was time to abandon him.” Watch the interview here.
 On our award-winning weekly global affairs show, GZERO World, Ian Bremmer explains the key global stories of the moment and sits down for in-depth conversations with the newsmakers and thought leaders shaping our world. In no particular order, here’s a look back at the 10 most quotable moments from this year’s episodes.
 12: The UK became the 12th member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership on Saturday, signing its biggest free trade agreement since Brexit. The deal will allow the UK lower trade tariffs with Canada, Mexico, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam — but it’s a far cry from the single EU market Britain left behind. 2: A pair of Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea suffered severe damage in a heavy storm near Crimea on Sunday, with at least one ship breaking up and the other reportedly running aground. Each ship had a capacity for around 3,500 tons of oil, and streaks of petroleum floating on water are visible on video from the accident, but the severity of the spill is not clear. 15 million: ABC News agreed on Sunday to pay $15 million to settle a defamation lawsuit with President-elect Donald Trump, over comments from anchor George Stephanopoulos regarding Trump being found liable for sexual abuse in a New York court. The money will reportedly go toward a future presidential library.
This edition of GZERO Daily was written and edited by Matthew Kendrick and Tasha Kheiriddin. |
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