CT - Critical Threats and ISW (Institute for the Study of War ) Iran Update, October 15, 2024

 CT - Critical Threats and ISW (Institute for the Study of War )

Iran Update, October 15, 2024

Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem gave a speech detailing Hezbollah’s strategy and vision of the war on October 15.[i] This was Qassem's third speech since Israel struck and killed Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.[ii] Qassem has taken on Nasrallah’s role as the public face of the organization. Qassem may be among the candidates considered to replace Nasrallah given that he has formal seniority in the organization and has appeared as the public face of the group in these difficult circumstances.

Qassem dismissed Israeli claims that Hezbollah fighters are failing to defend against Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon.[i] Qassem said that Hezbollah’s organizational model and goals are not those of a regular standing army, but that the group instead intends to rapidly attack and ambush Israeli forces when they enter Lebanese territory.[ii] This suggests that Hezbollah decided to avoid becoming decisively engaged in an area defense along the border.[iii] Qassem moreover claimed that Hezbollah has ”regained” its operational strength, restored its organizational capabilities, and put in place alternatives for its command-and-control structure.[iv] This suggests Hezbollah has reestablished operational control, though Qassem has significant motive to lie or exaggerate to present Hezbollah as a resilient organization to both its followers and its adversaries.

Israeli clearing operations have seized a significant amount of Hezbollah’s Radwan SOF assets that the group would likely try to retain if it was able, thus indicating that Qassem is exaggerating the degree of Hezbollah’s continued strength.[i] IDF officers have consistently remarked that their forces are engaging Hezbollah fighters from a far distance with medium-range weapons or that Hezbollah fighters have fled altogether, rather than decisively engaging IDF units.[ii] 

Qassem framed Hezbollah’s war with Israel as existential and said that he believes the United States and Israel seek to shape Lebanon and “run it as they wish.”[i] He assessed Israel is implementing a three-pronged plan: to strike Hezbollah’s leadership and capabilities so that Hezbollah is unable to resist Israeli operations “to end Hezbollah’s existence.”[ii] Qassem said that the final stage of Israel’s plan is to shape Lebanon’s government to “run it as [Israel wishes]” in collaboration with the United States.[iii]  The United States is considering pushing for the Lebanese Parliament to elect a president in the coming days, according to US officials speaking to Axios.[iv] US officials reportedly believe that Hezbollah influence in the Lebanese political system can be reduced while the group‘s leadership is weak, and its forces are preoccupied with fighting the IDF.[v] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also addressed the Lebanese people directly, saying that Hezbollah is “weaker today than it has been for many years” and calling for the Lebanese people to “take back [their] country” from Hezbollah.[vi]

Key Takeaways:

Hezbollah’s View of the War: Hezbollah’s deputy secretary general framed Hezbollah’s war with Israel as existential and said that he believes the United States and Israel seek to shape Lebanon and “run it as they wish.” He also indicated that Hezbollah leadership remains unwilling to agree to a separate deal that does not include an end to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip. Qassem did not express faith in the plausibility of a negotiated settlement.

Hezbollah Operations in Lebanon: Hezbollah’s deputy secretary general dismissed Israeli claims that Hezbollah fighters are failing to defend Lebanese territory, adding that the group intends to rapidly attack and ambush Israeli forces when they enter Lebanese territory. This suggests that Hezbollah decided to avoid becoming decisively engaged in an area defense along the border.

Israeli Operations in Lebanon: Elements of a brigade assigned to the 210th IDF Division entered Lebanon. There are now elements of five IDF divisions in Lebanon.

Israeli Retaliation Against Iran: Senior Israeli officials guaranteed senior American officials that Israel will target Iranian military and defense sites instead of nuclear or oil facilities in its retaliatory strike on Iran.

West Bank: A recent IDF investigation revealed the role that Hamas’ international and West Bank attack cells play in terrorist attacks targeting Israeli civilians.

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The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War will provide regular updates, including daily updates, as the crisis warrants.