Unpredictable Bulgaria? EURACTIV

 The Brief – Unpredictable Bulgaria?

By Georgi Gotev | EURACTIV.com Jul 4, 2022

The Brief is EURACTIV's evening newsletter. [EPA-EFE/VASSIL DONEV]

A few days ago, when we titled a commentary ‘Unpredictable Lithuania?’, there was no way to imagine that we would soon describe even more unpredictable geopolitical developments in Bulgaria.

The most surprising was the decision of the outgoing government of Kiril Petkov to kick out 70 Russian diplomats and embassy employees, a record number for the post-Cold War period (in 1971, the UK kicked out the absolute record number of 105 Soviet diplomats).

Bulgaria is known as an EU and NATO country keen to preserve its traditionally good relations with Russia. Now Bulgaria runs the risk of pushing Russia to close its embassy in Sofia – an unprecedented move. (Even when the Kingdom of Bulgaria was an ally to Hitler’s Germany, the Soviet Embassy worked normally in Sofia.)

Bulgarians are grateful that tsarist Russia waged the 1877-1878 Russian-Turkish war, liberating Bulgaria after 500 years of Ottoman rule. Many Russians, and people from other nationalities, gave their lives for the freedom of Bulgaria.

How could the country with possibly the richest historical ties with Russia be the first to cut relations? What happened?

There are many conspiracy theories. We will try to answer this question using “open sources”, namely quotes by politicians.

First and foremost, Petkov named the Russian Ambassador in Sofia, Eleonora Mitrofanova, as one of the people behind the vote of no-confidence that brought down his reformist government on 23 June.

“I was honoured to be the prime minister of this government, which was overthrown by Peevski, Borissov, Trifonov and Mitrofanova,” Petkov said at the time.

He referred to Delyan Peevski, the US-sanctioned “Magnitsky” MP from the Movement of Rights and Freedoms (DPS), the leader of GERB, former prime minister Boyko Borissov, the leader of ‘There is such a people’, actor-turned-politician Slavi Trifonov, and the Vazrazhdane, a pro-Russian political party. Their MPs all voted to oust his cabinet.

The second quote is from Mitrofanova, who spoke about Petkov during an interview on national television on 1 July.

“If he had changed his rhetoric and not talked the way he does, I think he would have had a very long political life.”

The Bulgarian press wrote that this statement could be interpreted as a direct threat from Russia, suggesting that if Petkov had behaved favourably towards the Kremlin, he would have remained in Bulgarian politics for a long time.

Afterwards, Petkov kicked out 70 Russian diplomats and embassy staff.

Bulgarian journalist and commentator Yassen Borislavov wittingly summed this up in an article in SEGA daily: “They sank his government, and he kicked them out”.

The next step is that Russia will close its embassy – or rather, this is what pundits predict.

At least it will not be Bulgaria’s decision.

While some politicians in Sofia are very vocal about the dire consequences for Bulgaria of such a move, others see this crisis as an opportunity.

Indeed, Bulgaria needs “shock therapy” to get rid of a relationship with Russia (and before that with the Soviet Union), which has never been respectful of its sovereignty. Moscow has always acted and communicated as if Bulgaria were its colony and Bulgarian leaders its servants.

Relations with Russia today are at an all-time low, also due to Russia’s decision to cut gas supplies to Bulgaria. The next step could be that Russia would no longer sell oil to Bulgaria, but this should not be such a big problem.

Russia is reportedly paying Bulgarian media, public figures and journalists to spread its propaganda. The entire Bulgarian political life is poisoned with Russian propaganda. With the embassy closed, things will change, and Bulgaria may end up better off.

In this stand-off, Russia has more to lose, and this could even manifest in some of its Soviet monuments disappearing as they have in other countries.

Now, both will need to take a break in their relations, but sooner or later, they will have to re-establish them on a healthier basis.

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