Russia-Ukraine War: Russia gets closer to Iran (NYT)

Ukraine-Russia News  (NYT)

Russia-Ukraine War: Russia gets closer to Iran

July 14, 2022

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By Yana Dlugy

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A handout photo from the Russian government showing leaders of Iran and Russia meeting in June.Sputnik

Russia gets closer to Iran

President Vladimir Putin will travel to Iran next week to shore up military and economic support for Russia. The trip will follow President Biden’s tour of the Middle East this week, where Iran and its nuclear program were main topics of discussion.

The relationship between Moscow and Tehran stretches back centuries and has often been fraught. Iranians still recall the territory that the Persian Empire had to cede to Russia’s czar in the early 19th century.

Today the two countries find themselves in the club of nations hit by sanctions and shunned by the West.

To learn more about the relationship, I spoke to Farnaz Fassihi, a Times journalist who covers the U.N. and is an expert on the Middle East. Our conversation has been lightly edited.

How has the war changed relations between the two countries?

Before, Iran and Russia had an alliance that was much more tactical than strategic. Iran really always wanted to develop this relationship. But because Russia had economic dealings with the West, Russia was always keeping Iran at arm’s length.

The war in Ukraine changed that. Russia now faces international isolation, so it needs to figure out how to skirt sanctions. So it’s looking at Iran, a country with a lot of expertise on getting around sanctions.

Iran sees an opportunity to get closer to Russia. And Russia now sees Iran as an important ally that could help it sell oil and energy and avoid sanctions.

Why does Iran want to be closer to Russia?

So that Iran can align itself with a world power. It provides security for the regime in the Islamic Republic and creates an alliance that protects Iran militarily and economically. And it can also give this perception to other nations that “You can sanction us, you can do anything you want, but we’re not isolated.”

But with the Iranian public, this is an extremely unpopular endeavor.

Iranians by and large are very suspicious of Russia. They don’t trust Russia because of the history of the two countries. They don’t trust that Russia has Iran’s best interests in mind.

So there is a lot of animosity and mistrust. And the Iranians are very sympathetic to Ukraine. They see Russia as a force that’s protecting their oppressor, the Iranian regime.

Every time there are official visits between the countries, there is a lot of brouhaha, with Iranians debating, “Are we becoming a Russian colony?”

Also, one of the slogans of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 was “No to East, No to West, Yes to Islamic Republic.” And even among the revolutionaries and conservatives in Iran, they are questioning why the regime is sticking to the “No to the West” part, but kowtowing to the East and allying with Russia.

What is the downside for Iran?

Iran could find itself in a predicament. Russia could dictate to it and ask things of Iran that would not be in the country’s best interest. Russia has the upper hand in this relationship.

An example is the Iranian nuclear deal. During the first weeks of the Ukraine war, the Iranian nuclear deal looked as if it would be a done deal. And then Russia threw a curveball and said, “Iran shouldn’t sign this deal unless we can have sanctions exemptions, unless Russia can have some guarantees from the U.S. and Europe that we can still benefit from this deal.”

And that completely threw Iran off guard. First of all, Iran wasn’t expecting this from a country that it sees as an ally. And it put the country in this really difficult dilemma: On the one hand, it thought, we have to make decisions about the nuclear deal based on our national interests, not based on Russia’s national interests. At the same time, we can’t afford to anger the Russians. So what do we do?

For Iran, the risk is that the closer it comes to an unpredictable and mercurial power like Putin’s, the more it will be at his beck and call.

Already, Russia is offering its oil at a discount price to some of Iran’s clients. So Iran has to compete with Russia. But it also doesn’t want to do anything that might upset this relationship. So it has to put up with it.

Are there any risks to Russia?

A reason that Iran couldn’t be as close as it wanted to Russia before the Ukraine war was that Russia had a close relationship with Israel. Also, Russia has a relationship with Saudi Arabia, a rival of Iran’s, and with the United Arab Emirates, which is now a hub and a safe haven for all of the Russian millionaires who have homes there.

For Russia, if it wants to keep those relationships with the Sunni powers in the region and with Israel, it has to also assure them that it isn’t too close to Iran. It’s all a very delicate balancing act.