A potential breakthrough in the grain crisis would mark the first major reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia since the beginning of the nearly five-month-old invasion. But don’t hold your breath just yet, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has stressed that “we still need a lot of goodwill and commitment,” as I reported here.
The rare glimmer of hope emerged after Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced some progress for the safe export of Ukrainian grain after a four-way meeting between Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations held in Istanbul on Wednesday.
Akar said that Kyiv and Moscow “agreed on principle” over a series of “fundamental technical” issues including establishment of a coordination center in Istanbul; joint security checks at entering and exiting points of ships; and ensuring navigational safety on shipping routes. He added that the parties were set to ink an “understanding” next week during the second of the talks. Yet he stopped short of providing details on major stumbling blocks including a key Ukrainian demand for third-party security guarantees against potential Russian attacks on its shores.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed this point commenting on the progress. “If we manage to remove the Russian threat to navigation in the Black Sea, it will remove the severity of the world food crisis,” he wrote on his official Telegram account, striking a cautiously optimistic tone. “The Ukrainian delegation informed me that there is some progress. We will agree on the details with the UN Secretary General in the coming days.”
A breakthrough in the conflict is vital for the international community’s efforts aiming to prevent a looming global food crisis. Aside from more than 35 countries across the world dependent on Ukrainian grain exports, Ukrainian grain is one of the major pillars of the UN’s food-assistance program for impoverished communities across the world, particularly in Africa.
The issue will likely be a top agenda item in the upcoming talks between Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin set to be convened in Tehran on Tuesday.
The two leaders will meet on the sidelines of the Astana talks, a trilateral mechanism between Iran, Russia and Turkey aiming to find a political settlement to the Syrian civil war. Erdogan, Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will discuss Syria amid the lingering Turkish threat of a new military operation against the Syrian Kurdish groups.
The absence of green lights from Russia and the United States has forced Ankara to put the new operation plans on the backburner over the past weeks, but the possibility has regained prominence this week with Akar saying “talks with the relevant parties and people were ongoing,” as I reported here.
Reporting from Syria, Sultan al-Kanj also provided a similar account, covering the intense “military movement on the ground,” particularly in the northern Syrian town of Tel Rifaat. “The battle is very close, and we have informed the Turkish side to stay on alert and prepare for a full-blown war,” a commander from the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army told Kanj.
Iran remains firmly opposed to Ankara’s plans while the Russian position seems to be slightly less clear. Speaking in early June amid heightened Turkish threats, both Russian and Iranian top diplomats stressed the importance of dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Tehran would extend every effort “to prevent” the operation,” while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed “understanding” over “Turkey’s security concerns.”
Maxim Suchkov, security and foreign policy analyst and a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, pointed out that the leaders’ summit in Iran comes after Iranian and Russian messages stressing dialogue in face of the Turkish threats.
“I’d expect some horse-trading in the coming talks,” he told me. According to Suchkov, a Russian blessing for a limited operation in northern Syria depends on three major factors: Whether such an operation would complicate Russia's own presence and political influence in Syria; whether it would mean a confrontation between the Turkish troops and Syrian government forces; and the position of Tehran.
Meanwhile, an operation against Syrian Kurdish groups could lead to a fresh strain in Washington-Ankara ties, which in turn can further complicate Turkey’s efforts to secure a deal to buy new F-16 fighter jets from the United States. Syrian Kurdish groups are the major and the most effective allies of the US-led international coalition forces combating the Islamic State.
Washington presses that an operation on the Syrian Kurdish groups would undermine the fight against the Islamic State, which still maintains its activities in the region despite massive setbacks the international coalition and their Kurdish-led allies inflicted on the group. Earlier this week, a leader of the radical jihadi group was killed in a US drone strike “in an area seized by Turkey-backed Syrian opposition factions from the Syrian Kurdish-led forces in 2016,” our Pentagon correspondent Jared Szuba reported.
A top Pentagon official on Wednesday devoted a notable amount of time repeatedly warning Turkey against a new operation, Szuba observed. “We strongly oppose any Turkish operation into northern Syria and have made clear our objections to Turkey specifically because ISIS is going to take advantage of that campaign – not to mention, the humanitarian impact,” Dana Stroul, the Pentagon’s top Middle East policy official, said during a public event, he reported.
The Turkish F-16 bid has already been complicated by legislation that the House of Representatives approved to add to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) yesterday. Under the measure, which lays out some restrictions on the possible usage of the fighter jets, the Biden administration will be required to certify the sale as essential to US national security. The legislation will become law only after the Senate’s approval and President Joe Biden’s ratification. The move might provide Washington a trump card in negotiations with Turkey over several issues including the Nordic enlargement of NATO.
Erdogan today gloated over a NATO deal that Turkey reached with Sweden and Finland. Turkey has “strengthened its fight against terrorism strategy” on the diplomatic front by “making others to accept our positions,” he said in a thinly veiled reference to the deal, in a speech marking the anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt. Under the deal, Finland and Sweden pledged not “to provide support” to groups that Turkey considers a threat to its national security.
Turkey today marks the sixth anniversary of the bloody 2016 coup attempt that left more than 250 people dead and thousands wounded. Ankara accuses US-based Sunni cleric Fethullah Gulen of masterminding the failed coup. The extradition lists that Ankara sent to Helsinki and Stockholm include several Gulenists.
Though as Andrew Wilks reported, “Turkish extraditions have long been frustrated by foreign courts and been a point of contention with its Western allies. European and American politicians have stressed that extradition lies in the hands of their judicial systems, not the government, and so cannot be guaranteed.”
Wilks also quoted a UK judge expressing “serious reservations about the current state of the rule of law in Turkey.” Europe’s top rights court also echoed a similar sentiment this week by ruling against Turkey in the case of prominent philanthropist and rights activist Osman Kavala, paving the way for disciplinary action by the Council of Europe, Nazlan Ertan reported. The country risks losing its voting rights and even suspension its membership in the European body, Ertan stressed.
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