Why Joe Biden Should Keep U.S.
Troops in Afghanistan
A premature
withdrawal will trigger a chain of events that will ultimately expose the U.S.
homeland to major terrorist attacks.
by Rafi Batekh –February 4 , 2021
There are five national security
reasons why the United States should keep a strong residual force in
Afghanistan. There is also an important moral argument for why America should
not abandon the Afghan people and leave them in the clutches of the world’s most
savage terrorists. In a highly controversial withdrawal deal signed in February 2020 between the Trump
administration and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, U.S. troops are to be fully
withdrawn from Afghanistan by May 2021. Such a premature withdrawal will
trigger a chain of events that will ultimately expose the U.S. homeland to
major
As of December 2020, there was a
bare minimum of 4,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. They had specific, limited
missions: to fight global terror; prevent safe havens for Al-Qaida; stop terror
attacks on the U.S. homeland; and train, assist and mentor Afghan Security
Forces partners. In his final days as president, Donald Trump ordered the
withdrawal of 2,500 of those troops and left in place a plan to fully withdraw
the remaining troops despite Congress passing a new U.S. law prohibiting such a drawdown. The withdrawal
decision was made in a slapdash manner without any strategic thought, foresight
or deliberation. President Joe Biden should reverse that order and revise the
Doha deal for the following reasons:
1. Withdrawal
Emboldens Global Terror
If the birth and rapid expansion
of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the aftermath of U.S.
withdrawal from Iraq in late 2011 is any lesson, there is the danger that a
similar withdrawal from Afghanistan could result in a similar catastrophe that
would revive global terrorism and embolden dangerous jihadists all around the
world. The Taliban and other terrorists will exploit a U.S. withdrawal as
propaganda to attract more finances, bolster recruitment, and expand the reach
of their cause. Flushed with cash and donations, terror networks will have the
financial wherewithal as well as the charm of a presumed victory to attract
flocks of dissatisfied, jobless youth from the Middle East, South Asia, Africa,
and even Europe, to join their ranks.
U.S. may keep troops in Afghanistan -report
A similar situation happened in
Iraq after President Barack Obama ordered a full withdrawal of the U.S. military
prematurely in late 2011. As analyzed by NPR, that withdrawal, among other factors, resulted in a
security vacuum, which led to the emergence and spread of ISIS—a ruthlessly
vicious terrorist caliphate that wreaked havoc across the region, threatened
Europe, and sent terror shockwaves across the globe. To this day, ISIS and its
affiliates remain relatively active in many parts of the world, including Afghanistan,
albeit significantly subdued by U.S.-led coalition forces that were re-deployed
to stop ISIS. As the January 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol inspired
domestic violent extremists in America, according to DHS, a premature departure from Afghanistan will
inspire global terrorism all over the world.
2. Withdrawal
Portrays U.S. Military as a Defeated Force
The United States has an unrivaled
military might that no other country can match. The American military is
respected and feared by both foes and friends alike. Imagine now, however, that
U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan as dictated by the Trump-Taliban deal,
just to appease a terrorist group—the result would be catastrophic for national
security. Critics and tabloids would flush the internet with big headlines and
juicy literature labeling U.S. military with defeat at the hands of a terrorist
group. This would harm America’s credibility, taint America’s military, affect
soldiers’ morale, torment U.S. military strategists for generations, and
inflict damage to America’s reputation. In an interview with
BBC last week, Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh succinctly
warned that “the fate, reputation, and standing of the Western Civilization”
hangs in the balance in Afghanistan. He added a sobering reminder that the
Taliban would falsely label the U.S. withdrawal with “defeat, surrender, and
escape.” Saleh emphasized that no one wants a jihadist state to come to power
“anywhere in the world, especially if it comes, God forbid, by kicking the
Western Civilization and the whole world out.”
3. Withdrawal
Destabilizes a Nuclear-Armed Region
The South Asian region is packed
with some of the world’s most dangerous terrorist groups determined to harm
America and the West. It’s been reported that there are around twenty-four major terrorist groups operating in and out
of Pakistan. With the U.S. military stationed in Afghanistan, those terrorists
have been kept at bay and largely contained for the past twenty years. If the
U.S. military withdraws from Afghanistan, those militant groups will be
unleashed, mobilized, and on the march once again—destabilizing the region where two nuclear-armed
arch-rivals, India and Pakistan, reside. This could spell further chaos for the
global order. It is in America’s interest to help keep South Asia stable.
4. Withdrawal
Exposes U.S. Homeland and Europe to Attacks
Once unleashed and left
uncontested, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda along with other terror groups will start
planning to target U.S. interests including U.S. embassies, consulates, and citizens
around the world. Their growth will inspire terror cells in Europe and America
to target the U.S. homeland as well as European capitals. Without a
forward-deployed military presence in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda will regain territory, strength, and base of operation from
which it could once again mastermind attacks on the U.S. homeland and the
European allies. In the war on terror, Afghanistan is the global frontline. You
lose that frontline; you lose to terrorists everywhere.
5. Taliban
Violating Peace Deal
The withdrawal of U.S. troops is
tied to the Doha withdrawal deal. The deal was negotiated by Trump envoy
Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. Afghans, although thankful for U.S. assistance,
are critical of the deal and distrustful of Khalilzad. The Afghan government sees him
as the architect of a deal that essentially surrenders Afghanistan to a
terrorist group. In his BBC interview last
week, Vice President Saleh argued that the Doha deal was a “fatal mistake”
because it gave “massive concession[s] to a terrorist group” and elevated the
group’s status by giving them undue international legitimacy. In exchange for full U.S.
withdrawal, the deal required the Taliban to cut ties with Al-Qaeda, renounce
violence, and negotiate a political settlement with the Afghan government. The
Taliban complied with none of those terms, but Trump ordered pulling out
regardless. Many months after the deal, the United Nations reported that the Taliban had not cut ties with Al-Qaeda,
instead they enjoyed a close working relationship with promises to “honor their
historic ties.” Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department also issued
a report stating that “Al-Qaida was gaining strength in
Afghanistan under the Taliban’s protection.” Furthermore, Taliban violence has
increased ten-fold in lethality, complexity, and scope across Afghanistan. In
addition to attacks on the government, the Taliban are now assassinating
and targeting journalists, civil society and women’s rights advocates, TV personalities, female judges, American translators, doctors, and other civilians as well as destroying public
infrastructure. Lastly, Taliban talks with the government are dishonest.
They’re only engaged in talks to encourage U.S. departure. Afghan intelligence
services say the Taliban are preparing for a massive “Tet Offensive-like” terror campaign this summer. Their aim: to overthrow the
government and establish a jihadist Emirate and a global terror launching
ground.
6. Collapse of the
Gains of The Past Twenty Years
Lastly, it is morally imperative
that America does not abandon its allies—the Afghan people. America and the
world made significant investments in both blood and treasure in Afghanistan
over the last twenty years. Close to a trillion dollars spent, thousands of
U.S. and NATO soldiers sacrificed, and over 50,000 Afghan soldiers died fighting to establish
democracy, allow girls to enroll in schools, and empower women to participate
in society. While the gains are remarkable, they are fragile, nonetheless. A
premature withdrawal will certainly result in the return of a Taliban jihadist
clerical regime, waste all of these sacrifices and hard-fought gains, and usher
in the collapse of the current regional order that will harm America’s national
interest greatly.
Next Steps
President Biden should revise the
Doha deal. A new agreement should follow a five-year plan and must require the
Taliban to agree to and abide by a full ceasefire for a period of ten months.
The deal must have a robust verification mechanism for compliance. During the
first year of the ceasefire—the United States, in coordination with the Afghan
government and NATO allies—should help move the site of the peace talks to
inside Afghanistan. This is important because negotiators must be attached to
the realities on the ground to engage in honest talks. An expensive tropical
vacation spot like Doha doesn’t cut it. The parties should discuss the
formation of a participatory future government based on fair and free elections
as per the timetable in the Afghan Constitution. That future government should
include Taliban members in it, in due time, as part of a national reintegration
effort.
In the second year, the Taliban
must go through a disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration process. In
the third year, they should be able to participate in local parliamentary
elections. By the fourth year, a fully disarmed, demobilized Taliban could
participate in national elections with a formula to form a participatory
government at the end of the term of the current government. Taliban must agree
to respect women’s rights, international human rights, sever ties with Al-Qaeda
and other terrorists, and pose no threat to other nations. The United States
should remain in Afghanistan throughout this process with a strong residual
force to see through this five-year plan. There is already bipartisan support
behind troops remaining in Afghanistan. Biden is also not tied to any campaign
promise of troop withdrawal. The cost of the war is already significantly lower
compared to what it used to be a few years ago. And Afghans are doing the
fighting themselves. It is far cheaper to remain and contain threats in
Afghanistan than to leave, render America vulnerable to attacks, and then be
forced to re-deploy the military.
Rafi Batekh is a national
security analyst and Vice President of Operations at CAPITALIZE LLC, a DC-based
government consulting firm. He previously worked for the U.S. government in
Afghanistan for several years. He holds two advanced degrees in international
relations from Georgetown University, School of Foreign Service, and the
American University, School of International Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment