Daniel W. Drezner - Sept. 28, 2026 - Will the 2026 Midterms Affect American Foreign Policy?

 

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Will the 2026 Midterms Affect American Foreign Policy? If history repeats itself, no. If Democrats learn from history, well... Daniel W. Drezner Sep 28   READ IN APP   Photo by Glen Carrie on Unsplash It’s becoming pretty clear that Republicans are going to get thumped in about six weeks for the congressional midterms. The question is what that means for American foreign policy. Let’s start with the walloping. Right now Fifty Plus One gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 71% chance of winning the Senate. Other prediction models are somewhat more conservative but also favor the Democrats in both houses of Congress at this point. Prediction markets also now favor a Democratic sweep. The Cook Political Report, which is usually the laggard predictor, is starting to shift its ratings towards Democrats. Even the vibes right now are craptastic for the GOP. This is normally the time when the Pundit’s Code mandates a caveat about: a) the self-sabotaging ability of the Democratic Party; and b) there’s a lot of time between now and November. To be honest, however, I find neither argument all that convincing. The Dems have mostly been in array ever since they Graham Platner got booted from the ticket in Maine. And it’s hard to see a how consumer prices, fuel prices, concerns about corruption, or anxiety about AI are going to shift in favor of the GOP between now and November. Throw in Donald Trump’s vindictive, immature brand of leadership and it doesn’t look good for either Trump or the Republican party. This part of the analysis is easy — but for the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World, the next question is more challenging: what will a walloping mean for U.S. foreign policy? Drezner’s World is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Upgrade to paid There are a lot of reasons to believe the answer is “nothing.” The political science of American foreign policy would certainly be skeptical of any change. Observers from Arthur Schlesinger onwards have noted that the president exerts operational control over foreign policy. This trend has only accelerated in the 21st century, as the combination of political polarization and the War on Terror has further enabled the executive branch to control foreign policy. The historical precedents for this question are an additional source of skepticism. Democrats have won two wave elections in the last twenty years: 2006 and 2018. The 2006 election in particular hinged on differences in foreign policy. Once they came into power, however, Democrats largely failed to constrain the president. Even after the 2006 midterms, George W. Bush was able to implement his surge strategy and Democrats in Congress did nothing to stop it. Similarly, after 2018, there was not much done to constrain Trump’s first-term foreign policy. There were a few serious attempts — the first impeachment over Trump’s blackmailing of Volodymyr Zelensky, the government shutdown over funding the wall — but in both instances Trump was able to get his way.¹ So is there any reason to believe that things will be any different in 2026? Well… I can think of a few: The polling is clear that for a plurality of voters, “their choice for Congress is a vote against Trump, including four in five Democrats and about half of independents.” If Democrats are looking at those numbers carefully, they will recognize a strong political incentive to check Trump’s foreign policy impulses. It’s hard to stress just how unpopular Trump’s foreign policy is — particularly the war in the Persian Gulf. There is little downside for the Democrats in Congress to do whatever they can to block Trump’s ability to prosecute that conflict — including using the power of the purse to starve the Pentagon’s operations in that theater. For all the talk of impeaching Trump if Democrats take back Congress, the smarter political strategy would be to impeach Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Senate Republicans have voiced their displeasure with Hegseth, and for good reasons — he’s an inept, insecure policymaker. Hegseth might survive impeachment, but as a political strategy a full Senate trial would probably wound him even further and lead to some very interesting testimony from general officers who have departed the Pentagon since 2025. Is that enough? I’m not so sure. Trump’s standard response to political setbacks is to double down on his strategy because he hates to show any weakness. Furthermore, with a hostile Congress Trump is more likely to focus on foreign policy and national security because of the executive branch’s relative strength in these arenas. So Trump might respond to a blue wave by trying to do whatever he wants on foreign policy. In the end, the pivotal question is how the remaining congressional Republicans react to a blue wave election. We have already seen Republicans — including some who are not up for re-election right now — asking critical questions of Trump. The president would truly be a lame duck after the midterms, thereby enabling some Republicans to act independently of Trump if they wished to do so. They very well might if the GOP gets pasted in November — but that doesn’t mean they will actually do so. Looking back at what I’ve just written, my tentative conclusion is that the answer will be “nothing.” Because any other answer requires political courage for both congressional Democrats and Republicans. And I, for one, am not putting any money on that longshot paying off. Thanks for reading Drezner’s World! This post is public so feel free to share it.