James discusses the US apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on PTV.
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Transcription
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Hello and welcome to Unfold. I am Jawahar Tihami. In today’s programme, we are going to talk about the latest developments after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. They’ve been transported to America where President Donald Trump, he will face American justice, and he will stand trial over there.
Let’s begin (and) talk about the situation that is developing after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured by special forces of the United States of America with President Donald Trump saying the U.S. will run Venezuela until a safe, proper, and judicious transition happens. Washington is also not afraid of putting the boots on the ground. We are going to have very large U.S. oil companies go in. At the same time, he has dismissed the possibility of Maria Machado to replace Nicolas Maduro. Instead, President Donald Trump has touted for the current Vice President of Venezuela. However, Vice President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, has decried Maduro’s capture as kidnapping and also demanded his immediate release saying she has assumed as interim president on the court orders, also saying that Maduro is the only president of Venezuela.
We also saw earlier Russia and also a number of countries in Latin American region including Cuba, Mexico, Brazil condemning this particular move by the United States of America. We have also seen a statement that has come from Chinese foreign ministry that has demanded the immediate release of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, also saying the situation should be resolved through dialogue and negotiations. We have also seen United Nations Secretary General expressing his concern regarding this evolving situation, also saying that he’s disappointed that the rules of international law have not been respected.
It is also expected the United Nations Security Council is going to have a meeting regarding this evolving situation vis-a-vis Venezuela on Monday. We have also seen when we talk about within the United States of America, many opposing voices regarding this particular move by the Trump administration have emerged when we particularly talk about the Democrats. There are also multiple media reports that are talking about the people going out and demonstrating against this particular move.
In this particular segment, we are going to talk about what are going to be the implications of this particular move by the U.S. when it comes to regional stability vis-a-vis Latin America, what sort of a message has been sent to the world at large, how the world has reacted, what is expected to transpire from the United Nations Security Council meeting that is expected to happen on Monday, a number of other aspects.
We’ll try to unfold those during this particular segment. For that, we are honoured to be joined through the video link by Mr. James M. Dorsey.
He is adjunct senior fellow at the School of International Relations. He is also a senior analyst joining us from Bangkok. Mr. Dorsey, thank you very much for your time for being with us on Unfold tonight. We really appreciate that. Mr. Dorsey, let’s talk about that particular statement by the Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, who has talked about how this particular operation has been carried out with coordination, with precision, the lethality and the stealth. Are you not curious about how easily a head of the state could be taken out by some foreign forces? There hasn’t been any sort of retaliation or any sort of resistance when this particular entire saga was unfolding. How do you look at that?
[James M. Dorsey] The execution of this operation obviously was very impressive. To what degree the United States forces may or may not have had inside help, with other words, support by elements of the Maduro regime is a matter of speculation. What I do think we have at the moment is a situation in which the United States obviously did not take out the regime as such.
It took out Maduro and his wife, but left the regime in place, and it assumed that the regime would be coerced or intimidated to a degree that it would be willing to cooperate with the United States. On the surface of things, that has failed. The vice president, who is a staunch Maduro supporter, has been appointed as acting president and has demanded the immediate release of Maduro and stated that he is the legitimate president of the country.
However, in the days prior to the US attack and the arrest of Maduro, Maduro himself was speaking to the United States and to President Trump and willing to find a way out of the crisis and willing to work with the United States. That gives the vice president, the acting president at the moment, the cover she may need if she would want to find a modus vivandi with the United States. If she doesn’t or is unable to do so, then that puts the United States in a position in which if they’re going to carry out President Trump’s wishes, they would actually have to invade the country and take over the administration.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Mr. Dorsey, what is the possibility when we talk about the possibility of the US putting the boots on the ground?
Is it doable? And also, President Donald Trump dismissing at one point when he was asked about the opposition leader Maria Machado, he dismissed, he said that she doesn’t have the respect within Venezuela and also touted for the name of vice president instead. After that particular statement by vice president, do you think the things are going to be resolved that amicably?
[James M. Dorsey] Well, that’s, I think, what remains to be seen and it’s too early to tell. What I do think is the case that Mr. Trump’s dismissal of Mrs. Machado as a future leader of Venezuela reinforces the notion that he was counting on the Maduro regime falling into line. Does the United States have the ability to invade Venezuela?
There’s no doubt about it. And for all practical matters, Trump has left that possibility open. He said on the one hand, in his news conference last night, that he is not averse to boots on the ground, but he also described the operation to arrest Mr. Maduro as the first wave and that the U.S., the United States were poised for a second wave, which at this point he thought would not be necessary. What is also true, that if it came to a situation of a U.S. invasion or U.S. troops on the ground in Venezuela, that risks enormous conflict. It could even risk a civil war. The Maduro, or Maduro himself, may have been a very controversial president, but there is a minority, but nonetheless a significant minority, in the country that supports him.
And Venezuela is a country with a widespread distribution of arms, in addition to which we don’t really know whether there are factions within the Venezuelan military and how the military would respond to a U.S. invasion. So this is a very tricky situation if indeed Rodriguez, the current acting president, is unwilling or unable to play ball with Trump.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Okay, so what is the reason that comes to your mind when it comes to President Trump dismissing the possibility of Maria Machado replacing Nicolas Maduro?
[James M. Dorsey] I think essentially, first of all, fact of the matter is that Machado is the leader of the opposition and that there is presumably a majority of Venezuelans who wanted to see Maduro depose, but that does not automatically mean that Machado has the kind of support needed to take over the government or that she has the capability to do so. For the Trump administration, the easiest way of doing this was keeping the regime in place and ensuring that they would act in accordance with Trump’s demands.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] So if a vice president doesn’t play the ball, as you’ve already mentioned, so in that sort of a scenario, as what President Trump and his administration actually want from Venezuela at this particular point in time, looking at that particular statement by Venezuelan vice president, she has demanded an immediate release of Nicolas Maduro, also reiterating that Nicolas Maduro is the only president of Venezuela. So this demand of release of him hasn’t come from herself only.
We have seen such type of demand coming from Chinese foreign ministry in a statement. They’ve demanded the release of Nicolas Maduro, also saying that the situation should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation. What are the chances when we specifically talk about after such a move, is there any sort of possibility that Nicolas Maduro and his wife stand any chance of any release immediately or any time sooner?
[James M. Dorsey] I don’t, I would not bet on Maduro and his wife being released. I think we can be certain that he will appear in court tomorrow. He will be arraigned.
He will be detained. He will not be granted bail and the legal proceedings will go ahead. The statement, I think most importantly, rather than China or whatever other foreign power, more important is that the statement by Rodriguez demanding Maduro’s release was made together with all the military commanders in Venezuela.
So she was projecting unity and cohesion of the regime in the wake of the US attack. I don’t think one should have expected anything else. She was not going to publicly surrender, nor was the military going to do that.
Even so, that does not mean that she does not have the ability, given that Maduro himself wanted a negotiation. The fact that Maduro wanted that, I think gives her the leeway to negotiate with the Trump administration. And that’s clearly what the Trump administration would prefer.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] With the US boots on the ground in that sort of a scenario or without the US boots on the ground in that sort of a scenario, in what sort of scenario, as per your understanding, are there highly likely chances of a broad-scale civil war within Venezuela?
[James M. Dorsey] I think the risk of a civil war, of in any case violence and further destabilisation of the country, emerges if and when it becomes clear that the current government in Caracas, in Venezuela, is not going to be willing to somehow find a compromise with the Trump administration. That on the one hand allows the regime in Venezuela to save face and at the same time caters to Trump’s demands. If that breaks down, then Trump’s assertion that the United States will run the country is only going to be feasible if the United States actually intervenes.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Right. Mr. Dorsey, as Nicolas Maduro is going to be presented in the court on Monday, when the proceedings happen, do we understand all those criteria when it comes to a free trial and the right of defence are going to be fulfilled during that court proceeding against Nicolas Maduro? Even if all those prerequisites are fulfilled and are met, do we understand that this particular court proceeding is going to be questionable right from the outset of it?
[James M. Dorsey] There’s going to be controversy about it by definition. What I think you will see is legal arguments with regard to the legality of the proceedings. And we saw this in 1989 or 1990 when the United States intervened in Panama and General Manuel Noriega was taken to the United States, already indicted and put on trial and sentenced to prison.
At the time, the legal argument by the United States was that it did not matter how a fugitive of U.S. justice, which Noriega at the time was, and which Maduro was. He was indicted in 2020. The legal argument was it does not matter how he came to be in U.S. custody. What mattered was that whether or not the proceedings and the preparation of the indictment had been in accordance with the law. And if it was in court in the accordance of the law and the defendant in this case was in U.S. custody, then the legal proceedings could proceed. That was the argument that Noriega lost in his case.
It’s going to be the argument that is going to be put forward again by Maduro’s lawyers at the point at which these legal proceedings move forward. And presumably, this court, like the past court, will reject that argument.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Right. Mr. Dorsey, when we talk about as to that particular statement by President Donald Trump, when he specifically talks of his interest in bringing in large oil companies of the United States of America, saying we’ll be selling large amounts of oil. Given this particular fact, also those allegations regarding the narco and drug trafficking on a Venezuelan president, are there any other immediate drivers or do we understand when we talk about vis-a-vis Russia, do we understand this particular move at this particular point in time is a tit-for-tat move by Trump administration when it comes to Russia’s move and position vis-a-vis Ukraine is concerned?
[James M. Dorsey] I don’t think this has anything to do with Russia or Ukraine. Trump himself has been targeting Maduro for now more or less seven years. This started when Trump was in his first term of office from 2017 to 2021.
This is not suddenly new and precedes Ukraine. What I think this is about is two things. One is a message.
It’s a message to Latin American leaders, to the Cubans, to Gustavo Petro of Colombia, potentially to someone like Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran. That’s the intended message. There’s also an unintended message.
With other words, if you’re Vladimir Putin, or for that matter, Xi Jinping of China, you could argue that, well, if Trump can take out Maduro, I can take out Zelensky on charges of being a Nazi, or I can take out the president of Taiwan on charges of secessionism. I don’t think that that was the message that Trump wanted to convey, but it’s probably a message that he did convey. I think the second reason for the intervention in Venezuela is mineral resources.
Oil is one. Venezuela is a resource-rich country. It also has rare minerals, which are particularly important to the Trump administration at this juncture.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Right. One last quick question, Mr. Dorsey. As per what are your expectations when the UN Security Council is going to meet tomorrow on Monday regarding this situation in Venezuela, what are your expectations?
What is highly likely to transpire from there?
[James M. Dorsey] I think we’re going to see the Council as being as impotent as it has been with regard to Gaza. Whatever happens, even if 14 of the 15 states were willing to present a resolution that condemns the U.S. intervention, and I think that’s questionable because at the moment the Europeans particularly are in a bind, but even if they were to vote in favour of such a resolution, it’s going to be vetoed by the United States. The real question is, are the 14 members willing to put out a statement in the name of the 14 because they can’t get a resolution passed?
I think that may be difficult given the European position, which is the Europeans as a matter of principle, if one reads between the lines, sees this as a violation of international law, but they are doing a balancing act between, on the one hand, not wanting to get on the wrong side of Donald Trump, and on the other hand, it’s hard to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and not condemn the U.S. intervention in Venezuela.
[Anchor Jawad Tehami] Right, Mr. James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Senior Analyst, Expert in International Relations, joining us from Bangkok, thank you very much for your time, for being with us on Unfold Tonight. We really appreciate it.
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