There’s a New Game of Thrones
in the Mediterranean
It’s
time to listen to Germany and take a step back.
The
editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by
expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate
from the newsroom.
·
Aug. 30,
2020
As if there
wasn’t enough trouble around the world, two NATO allies, Greece and Turkey, have lit up a
new and dangerous crisis, dragging in countries near and far. In this game of
thrones, only Germany seems to have the sway to mediate a return to sanity.
At the core of
the crisis, as in so many other dangerous squabbles around the globe, is energy
— specifically the rich gas deposits discovered over the past decade under the
eastern Mediterranean. Greece claims that its many islands in that region give
it sole drilling rights in the waters around them, a stance broadly supported
by international law. But Turkey, feeling hemmed in, says otherwise, and it has
sent ships, accompanied by warships, to explore for gas off Cyprus.
Feuds between
Greece and Turkey are hardly new. What complicates this one is that the gas
reserves are also being eyed by many other countries. In principle, the vast
reserves should bring those countries together to tap and share the riches off
their shores. In fact, most of the countries — including Greece, Cyprus,
Israel, Egypt, Italy, Jordan and even the Palestinians — have done just that.
Turkey, however, has found itself excluded, in part
because of Greece’s territorial claims, and in part because Turkey’s
authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has antagonized many of his
allies and friends with his aggressive behavior in Syria, Libya and at home.
Further complicating matters is that Turkey is a member of NATO but not of the
European Union; Cyprus is a member of the European Union but not NATO; and
Greece is a member of both, creating overlapping and conflicting loyalties.
Then there’s the fact that Cyprus is divided into a Greek south and a Turkish
north, although nobody except Turkey recognizes the Turkish part as a separate
state.
An attempt by
Germany to untie this Gordian knot foundered when Greece announced an energy
deal with Egypt that effectively claimed rights to a broad area of the sea,
which it did in response to a similar accord between Turkey and Libya. Turkey
soon started exploring again, its operations monitored by a Greek naval
frigate.
On Aug. 12, the
Greek warship managed to collide with
a Turkish warship, and things quickly heated up. France, already furious at
Turkey over its support of the faction in Libya that France doesn’t support,
briefly sent in a couple of fighter jets and warships, and it’s currently
holding military exercises with Greece, Cyprus and Italy to deter further
exploration by Turkey. Greece announced a demonstrative extension of its
territorial waters off its western coast to 12 miles, in effect warning Turkey
that it could do the same in the Aegean Sea on
its eastern side, a move Turkey would not tolerate.
What is
peculiar in this crisis is that competition for fossil fuels should have given
way by now to competition over how to stop using them, especially among
countries that have subscribed to the Paris climate agreement. Besides, with
the slowdown in the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic and the
resulting drop in energy prices, Europe has plenty of gas.
It also seems
bizarre for Mediterranean and European countries to be plunged into extraneous
tensions when there are so many serious crises to keep them busy, including
the economy, the pandemic, the
political suspense in the United States, the street clashes in Belarus and
Russia’s threat to intervene in Belarus.
In an earlier era, the United States would have
stepped in to separate feuding NATO partners, as it did when Greece and Turkey
almost went to war in 1996. President Trump did make a call to
Mr. Erdogan urging him to negotiate, but that had no effect — the United States
under the Trump administration is not regarded as a viable go-between,
especially with Mr. Trump in campaign mode. Britain, too, has retreated from
European affairs now that it is out of the European Union. The union also lacks
leverage over Turkey, since it has become evident that Turkey under Mr.
Erdogan, despite its status as a candidate for membership, has no chance of
joining the union.
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So Germany, which currently holds the rotating
chairmanship of the European Council, the policy-setting assembly of E.U. heads
of government, has taken the lead in trying to get Turkey and Greece to the
negotiating table, with Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, shuttling
between Ankara and Athens. The mediation is not entirely altruistic — a
cornered Turkey could unleash another flood of Syrian refugees into Europe,
most of them seeking to reach Germany. But with nearly three million Turks
living in Germany, Mr. Erdogan has at least some assurance that his side of the
argument will be heard.
That is important. Though international law is largely
on the side of Greece in the maritime dispute, there is room for negotiation,
and Turkey’s explorations in disputed waters have not yet crossed a legal red
line. On Friday, E.U. foreign ministers met in Berlin and
effectively endorsed Germany’s role, putting off any discussion of sanctions
against Turkey until E.U. heads of state meet in late September.
War is in nobody’s interest, and a conflict between
NATO members ought to be unthinkable. But when tensions reach the level they
have in the eastern Mediterranean, as Mr. Maas has said, “Even the
smallest spark can lead to a catastrophe.” Germany has called on all sides to
immediately halt provocative military exercises, a step that should be followed
by a moratorium on exploration in disputed waters. Then let diplomacy take
over.
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