Russian Strategic Calculations In The Nagorno-Karabakh
Crisis
Written by Andrew KORYBKO on 30/09/2020
The
latest Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis has brought a lot of attention to Russian
strategic calculations in the South Caucasus. Being Armenia’s mutual defense
ally through the CSTO, observers fear that the uncontrollable escalation of the
ongoing conflict could lead to the worst-case scenario of a clash between this
bloc and NATO in the event that Turkey militarily intervenes in Azerbaijan’s
support. It’s therefore worthwhile examining Russian interests in order to
obtain a better understanding of what it might do.
Armenia and
Azerbaijan accuse one another of provoking the latest violence. The
first-mentioned claims that Azerbaijan launched an unprovoked attack against
Armenian forces in Occupied Nagorno-Karabakh (ONK) whereas the latter asserts
that it’s involved in a counteroffensive all along the front. Regardless of
which side started it, the indisputable fact is that Armenia is militarily
occupying internationally recognized Azerbaijani territory in violation of UNSC
Resolutions 822, 853, 874, and 884.
Russia, as a
member of the UNSC, voted in support of those resolutions which demand that
Armenia withdraw from Azerbaijani territory. Even Armenia itself officially
acknowledges Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions that it occupies as
Azerbaijani territory since it has yet to recognize the former autonomous
oblast as”independent”, though Prime Minister Pashinyan recently hinted that he
might do so. Such a move, however, would be a clear provocation which crosses
Azerbaijan’s red line and would uncontrollably escalate the crisis.
That’s
precisely what Moscow is most worried about. It’s legally bound to defend
Armenia from foreign aggression so the scenario arises whereby it might
intervene in the event that Azerbaijan and/or its Turkish ally attack targets
in internationally recognized Armenian territory. Those countries might do so
on the basis of preemptively thwarting Armenian aggression against them, which
would create a legal dilemma for Russia. On the one hand, it would need to
uphold its CSTO commitments, but on the other, it wouldn’t want to escalate.
Armenia
earlier said that it hasn’t requested Russia’s CSTO assistance, nor has it
asked for more arms shipments from its ally, though the second-mentioned
remains possible according to the Armenian Ambassador to Russia. That’s
actually a wise decision on Armenia’s part because there’s a credible chance
that Russia wouldn’t intervene in its support even in the previously described
scenario in order to avoid a CSTO-NATO clash so long as Azerbaijan and/or Turkey
preemptively acted against Armenia on its territory to thwart its aggression.
Another pertinent point
is that requesting emergency Russian arms shipments would make Armenia appear
weak, desperate, and on the brink of defeat. For soft power purposes, it
mustn’t make its objective weaknesses apparent to the rest of the world, which is
why it unconvincingly attempts to present a veneer of strength to cover up for
them. An example of this is the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry claiming that
Syrians of Armenian origin are fighting in ONK, which allows Yerevan “to
conceal its losses from the public.”
Russia is
very well aware that Armenia is the aggressor, just like it’s always been.
That’s why it isn’t considering activating the CSTO’s mutual defense clause.
Russia, like the rest of its UNSC counterparts, regards Nagorno-Karabakh as
Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory according to international law. It
doesn’t want to get dragged into a war in support of its ally’s expansionist
policy. Russia would have nothing to gain from doing so and everything to lose,
including its strategic relations with Azerbaijan and possibly even Turkey too.
The best
possible strategy at this time is for Russia to put immense pressure on Armenia
behind the ceases to agree to another ceasefire as soon as possible, provided
of course that the Azerbaijani side is willing to go along with this as well
for whatever its reasons may be. Regrettably, however, Russian influence over
Armenia has shrunk since Pashinyan’s rise to power as a result of the so-called
“Velvet Revolution”, which was really a Color Revolution against the country’s
legitimate government. Since then, Armenia has fallen under US influence.
Cynically
speaking, some American strategists might believe (whether on their own or due
to the influence of the powerful American lobby in the US) that their country
has an interest in encouraging Armenia to continue its regional aggression no
matter what its diplomats officially say. The thinking goes that provoking a
larger conflict could trap Russia in a quagmire that might even lead to the end
of its strategic partnership with Turkey, which would proverbially “kill two
birds with one stone” from the US perspective.
For as
attractive as that scheme might seem, it would could prove counterproductive to
America’s long-term interests by unleashing uncontrollable chaos which might
ultimately reduce its influence in the region. It’s impossible to predict how
such a scenario would play out in practice since nobody would exercise full
control over events, hence why it’s best for the US to pressure Armenia in
parallel with Russia to immediately cease fire and resume peace talks with
Azerbaijan.
The success
of this proposal could provide a much-needed common ground on which
Russian-American relations could potentially improve along the lines of a “New
Detente”. Even so, however, there’s the chance that Armenia has gone completely
“rogue” in the sense of no longer being under any country’s dominant influence.
Its so-called “balancing act” between Russia and the US might have placed it
within equidistance of each other, thus enabling it to play them off against
one another in pursuit of its regional expansionist policy.
It’s perhaps
for that reason why Turkish President Erdogan described Armenia as the “biggest
threat to regional peace.” For as geographically tiny and sparsely populated as
it is, the country wields disproportionate influence insofar as its capability
to spark a regional war which might uncontrollably escalate to the level of a
CSTO-NATO clash. Taking all of this into account, Russia’s strategic interests
are best served by working together with the US and all other stakeholders to
pressure Armenia to cease fire, resume peace talks, and withdraw from ONK.
Source: OneWorld